https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NR7ZVPSDSZXAM/ Paywalled
Retirement village apartment licences set $3m-$4m price records.
I really hope Brent is taking notes.
Printable View
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NR7ZVPSDSZXAM/ Paywalled
Retirement village apartment licences set $3m-$4m price records.
I really hope Brent is taking notes.
Property market still robust
Prices still going up
Good for this sector …more so for the likes of SUM and RYM than OCA
July report
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...uly%202021.pdf
Thanks. Looks very strong to me. Consumer confidence waning in Australia though https://thebull.com.au/lockdowns-hit...12+August+2021 so maybe SUM and RYM will feel it a bit with their Australian operations ?
Hold OCA and a modest stake in ARV. (Wouldn't mind some SUM back in my portfolio at some stage soon).
You waiting for SUM to report Beagle?
Not sure what I am waiting for to be completely honest about it. My own SUM journey is part of the answer. Selling pre- covid very early in 2020 at $9 wasn't a bad move at the time. She's up 46% since then and I'm "sort of" okay with that on some grounds but certainly earnings are not up 46%. I should have bought back in when it dipped under NTA in the middle of the Covid crisis last year but ...alas....its easy with hindsight !!
I suppose I shouldn't be too hard on myself, I did lay into OCA good and proper in the low 70 cent range last year and its more than doubled since then.
SUM = Good company, good prospects, well managed, forward PE in the early 20's which is okay, great land bank...new CEO is a bright guy....
I just feel OCA has better capital appreciation prospects but maybe I am wrong and SUM's very lite level care model is better. Hard to say....time will tell I guess.
P.S. A smart man hedges his bets. Finally got a few SUM back in the fold this afternoon. (Thanks for your question).
Wonder if our Brent is an empathetic leader …..because leading with empathy boosts the bottom line.
I understand Earl lead with empathy
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/t...he-bottom-line
Might be paywalled
Stockton continues to sell http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...420/352367.pdf
It’s going to be a while yet before he is able to fully sell down, if that’s his plan. That coupled with a few regional lockdowns may provide an opportunity to buy closer to NAV of $1.28
Ours is only a small rest home, but out of 30 residents, all but 3 have been fully vaccinated. The other three had health related reasons for choosing not to have it. One thing to remember though, is that some rest home residents will have an activated POA, so the decision will be made for them (and not necessarily in consultation with). My own mother falls into this category sadly. In a rest home with Alzheimers, but my sister refuses to let her have it. I 100% disagree with her decision, but there is literally nothing I can do. She has POA.
Another listed RV operator's annual report lists 6100 team members and 12,500 residents. The following is from a recent email from their COO 'The good news is that we have had an overwhelmingly positive response to our vaccination programme, and more than 28,000 vaccinations have been administered to our residents and team members'.
Thank you. The worst part is, that Mum was actually given the first dose by mistake (shouldn't have happened but that's a whole different story). She was fine and had no reaction at all, but my sister still refused to let her have the second dose. I tried very, very hard to help her understand that giving the second dose would have been the right thing to do, and a way to turn the vaccination "mistake" into something positive. But no way in hell would she hear me.
I am hoping that the one dose might afford Mum some protection. Fingers crossed we never have to find out.
Metlife firing on all cylinders
Reported profit $304m
Revaluations positive $336m
NTA $8,64 -- what did it sell for a year ago?
Gives an indication of how OCA could be heading
and this -
Mr Gasparich noted that during the year, Metlifecare had repaid the $6.8 million COVID-19 wage
subsidy received late in the previous financial year. The company believed this was the
appropriate action given Metlifecare’s financial position and reflected the spirit of the scheme.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...602/352623.pdf
The Swedes made this call before he came on board as CEO. I think they felt guilty for the way they went about coercing and manipulating the board and shareholders for many tens of millions of dollars and decided to donate a very small portion of it back.Quote:
Mr Gasparich noted that during the year, Metlifecare had repaid the $6.8 million COVID-19 wage
subsidy received late in the previous financial year. The company believed this was the
appropriate action given Metlifecare’s financial position and reflected the spirit of the scheme.
Mark Stockton continues to sell down, maybe 2-3 months longer before he has fully sold down.
Bond offer coming up on the 30th August… Better than bank debt in my opinion, far less constraints etc and if it’s over subscribed shows that Bond holders have confidence in the company. Must be for an acquisition(s) that they have lined up already.
I’d rather OCA didn’t pay a dividend and built up a solid cash position for acquisitions… then if they didn’t have acquisitions, or none that returned a higher ROE than the cost of equity, return the cash via buy backs or a special dividend. I think this would add a lot more value to the company.
It didn’t look like Stockton sold much anyway for now; which is probably a good sign.
Can’t believe PEB close to overtaking OCA - will be really interested to see what they buy with another bond. Would be great to see new results actually cement the point of inflection for profitability. I don’t see much difference in dividend vs retained capital; I want company to move forward and be profitable and to take its gains to give its shares a green arrow instead of meandering.
I think its clear the sell down of his stake is being professionally managed for him.
Outstanding result the other day for SUM, similar for MET and RYM. Have to wait until Dec to find out if similar good news for OCA in their half year to 30 Sept. Fingers crossed holders
OCA should report for the 6 months ended 30 September in late November.
Still busy selling
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...016/353280.pdf
It would show a positive light if Greg just snapped up his remaining shares off market for this price.
Last year September was the last good month to be buying.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...021/353288.pdf
Company is buying back 3,164,556 shares on or after 1 September.
They got a new LTI scheme now ….1.9m shares
I have asked twice now but they refuse to disclose the targets that have to be achieved for the top brass to collect the goodies ….buts it ‘aligned to shareholders interests’ they say
Secret squirrel stuff …might get Oliver’s organisation to ask
New bond issue coming in September too. When a company does a bond issue its invariably a good time to buy the shares instead.
People lending truckloads of money to OCA at ~3% locked in for 7 years is an excellent deal for OCA shareholders !
Post deleted
Any increase in eps is always most welcome. For example the fairly recent village acquisition in Hobsonville was said to be low single digit eps accretive.
Wonder what they raising another bond issue for, maybe another eps accretive village acquisition ?
At 3.2% these bonds will go like hotcakes - even if they are 7 year ones
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...141/353459.pdf
I'm inclined to agree. There's lots of folks with term deposits who are starved for yield and 3.2% is the minimum rate.
Presentation that accompanies this bond issue (there might be something in here that updates us on their progress in FY22)
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...141/353461.pdf
There's an old saying, (not sure who came up with it), whenever a company does a bond issue, buy their shares instead.
Good example was last year. Have a look at their share price performance in the month after they issued the cleansing notice on 25 September 2020 in preparation for the previous bond issue. The shares jumped 35% in less than a month !! Today they issued the cleansing notice for this bond issue. History set to repeat ?
Attachment 12903
As an aside, from a TA perspective notice how the shares recently bounced off the 100 day moving average support line and have just broken up through the 30 day support line.
Not sure how you came up with $80m underlying but what I have come around to realising with OCA its all about their total comprehensive income.
Here's a thought from one person in the ranks of the less educated in all things OCA. I do have a basic understanding of the OCA model but do struggle with the finer details, I would consider this to be fairly 'typical' of an OCA investor. Here's my thoughts on today's bond information from a the point of view of a 'typical' investor. The bond issue itself is a good idea, more cash for growing and creates more safety if needed. I can't see any new information as it's all the old data as I would expect, nothing to see there. The cool part is the presentation part looks super professional. It's only a look but that matters to me. Also, just seeing Jarden, Westpac, ANZ, and Craigs all lumped in with this gives the vibe of professional competence. Therefore, as a 'normal' investor when I read the info today, everything just has a professional, meaty, winner of a company persona about it. It just 'looks' like OCA is maturing into one of the big boys on the block. I will be super interested if this helps SP movement over this week. I have heaps of shares so hope so.
"it's possibly the good vibes that gives punters that confidence" Exactly the point right there Winner. Cheers
Thanks for pointing that out sl
Disc: I was thinking about buying some bonds but I thought, what the heck, the dividend yield is probably better and the capital gain to come in the next 7 years is likely to be really spectacular so I bought some more shares instead.
Yes, I was toying with getting some bonds as well. Better than Term Deposits. Have to diversify some investments, even if you hold some in low returns. But 7 year fixed interest?
If OCA pulls it off, good on them. Below the inflation rate, and certainly below the future inflation rate. I hope they don't waste the bond proceeds. Share purchase better idea as assets are reasonably secure.
I have applied. The way I look at it is that if I can get 3.x% then that is at least 3 times more than I am getting now on term deposits. So why not put up to (or less than) 1/3 of spare funds into that and then play with (or sit on) the rest?
The SP and NTA, will be looking good at 31 March, as there will be more certainty regarding the development and absorption of the Waterford property into the company scheme of things by then. High growth and high inflation are a good catalyst for a property owning company, that earns subsidiary income from care. Only the thought of Covid holding back this SP.
Makes sense, but in a years or two, the interest rates on TD may be in the 3% or over. You will have no choice but to hold to maturity as the market value of the bonds decrease based on yield. Having said that can't hurt to have some bonds, if the bank goes bust. Argh what to do?
Addendum, talked me into it. Got an allocation from Jarden Direct. Looked at the yield available on fixed interest and bonds, still very low. May be a quick buck to be made when they first are available on the bond market. Or if I have to hold till maturity still a secure investment. Have to park some of the proceeds of my ZEL takeover windfall somewhere.
5 year rate with BNZ is 2.0% and I am sure you'd get a bit higher if you offered to lock in for 7 years but I for one think its safer in OCA.
Its an interesting conundrum for sure. On one hand its perhaps unwise to have everything in equities and yet on the other what's the point in investing in bonds if you know the after tax return is significantly lower than inflation ?
Good question, plenty of answers.
For me, the answer is that there is more to any investment than simply the after-tax return. Liquidity, security, income, consistency, political risk, and other factors are also in play. So it’s also about diversification.
Diversification is simply a strategy for reducing the risk of capital or income loss. But it isn’t the only strategy to which I subscribe and which I implement across the portfolio.
Diversification runs across asset classes, as well as across individual investments within an asset class, and it’s diversification that means that I happily hold OCA shares as well as OCA bonds.
The shares have the potential for a dividend yield improving over time, while the bonds deliver consistency of yield. However the bonds will continue to pay interest should the dividend be cut or suspended.
Neither may seem likely at the moment, although I do see a degree of political risk around the occupation-rights model prevalent in the listed retirement village operators.
I believe that that’s more likely to impact the shares’ dividend and price than the bond’s coupon payments.
I'll never diversify myself rich. . .
I'll never diversify myself rich. . .
Probably never diversify broke either.
A large over subscription will show confidence in OCA as a business, which bodes well for equity investors in the future.
Looks like they'll pay down some bank debt, as they suggest, it's too restrictive to borrowing for future growth, due to the covenants (50% LVR & Interest Coverage Ratio > 2.0). It will be interesting to see how much they use for acquisitions, $30M Bank debt, $70M Acquisition and development?
How will they fund further acquisitions for growth and pay down debt?? Follow SUM, and do a third Bond issue? or tap into equity investors?
Exciting times ahead.
Pushing on towards an all time high. Good times ahead with bond issue, share accumulation and announcements eminent.
Been reflecting on this and future growth prospects, shares v bonds. I think Covid and its variants is a game changer. There's highly likely to be a heck of a lot of elderly folks now absolutely craving the security and support of living in a gated retirement community. The penetration rate of retirement community living is going to grow very quickly indeed from here in the future. Already we have recently seen market evidence of this with SUM having new villages completely sold out even before they're built and long wait lists for other villages, (something they have never experienced before since they listed a decade ago). These same market dynamics will be playing out with demand for OCA villages too.
Our new CEO clearly has his eye on more land acquisitions and I expect the build rate will be scaled up significantly in the years ahead to meet what I think will be rampant demand. On a 7 year view I would be very surprised if we didn't get at least 15% per annum average annual profit growth which if we stick with the current metrics and proximity to the rest of the sector, (closest to NTA and arguably the lowest PE ratio) that should lead to a share price north of $4 seven years from now ($1.59 x 15% growth compounded for 7 years = $4.23)....or you can invest in the bonds and you'll probably get a return after tax of less than the average inflation rate and at the end of the 7 years period the capital you invested is likely to have diminished in value in real inflation adjusted terms.
Further, the average annual dividend rate of the shares over the next 7 years is going to be a lot higher than 3.2% based on an investment at today's share price.
If OCA moves towards the average metrics of the sector in terms of price to NTA the price could be substantially higher than $4 seven years from now, perhaps close to $7.
It has been said that annual compounding growth is the eighth wonder of the world.
That sums up the prospects for shares v bonds as I see them.
Pretty big volume today. Wonder if Stockton dumped a few more on that rise.
OCA share price did well in August ....... but SUM share price did better
Updated this chart as another month passes us by
OCA might have more cheerleaders than SUM on Sharetrader but the market per se continues to regard SUM more highly
No point of inflection here
Hoping like hell that OCA reaches a new all time high today ...only 1 cent away
Previous all time high was $1.60 back in early Februray
SUM was $12.32 then
So in last six months OCA share price gone nowhere .... zilch increase .... while SUM share price up 23%
Things have to change one day don't they?
The trend chart for OCA cf. RYM may be more in OCA's favour?
I had also gradually diversified out of my top heavy holding in SUM into OCA (& ARV) - and steeled myself to add a small extra holding during last years low point. I had previously diversified into SUM from RYM, and had been forced to quit MET and add to other retirement holdings. So for me diversification has had a neutral cost. My investment in the sector in general over the long term has outperformed though.
Best buy in the sector IMO, as great as SUM has been over the last year you will get a greater return on this one over the next 5 yrs. SUM will soon become a long heavy freight train like RYM has in due course. Ask yourself if you think SUM or RYM will get to $30 before this gets to $3.
[QUOTE=couta1;906010]Best buy in the sector IMO, as great as SUM has been over the last year you will get a greater return on this one over the next 5 yrs. SUM will soon become a long heavy freight train like RYM has in due course.[/QUOTE
Good to see esp for us v patient long term holders. Went heavily into OCA a few years back around 1.00, shuddered watching it drop to .47 on 23/3/20 during the first Covid outbreak, but held on through believing patience would eventually be rewarded & great to see some healthy gains & SP gaining some momentum now.
Hold SUM long term also.
Once again sp stalls after showing early promise. Should be around $1.70 now based on Arvida’s sp. Patience needed I guess .
Yes there's a big feed coming but patience is required.
Attachment 12915
There's a scenario baking on the SKY thread that OCA bond raise is to pay for purchase of SKY buildings, at some exorbitant price. I think the funds will be used to develop Waterford property. Can't have too much on the boil at the same time.
If so is Mkt saying they are paying to much?
Is the Sky HQ a good site for Oceania
Seems a done deal on the other thread
https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/new...dings-for-sale
What ya reckon Beagle? Bear in mind this listing doesnt include the sheds at the back which have since "been added" for "targeted buyers" on the 23rd of August (date of bond announcement by OCA)
The location of sky hq is in a not so desirable part of town.
I thought OCA aimed at the premium end of the market?
summerset heritage park is 300m away as the crow flies?
they get it wrong?
https://www.summerset.co.nz/find-a-v...heritage-park/