Lol, that would be handy but I would prefer green lights if possible.:)
Think if you go to Pacific Edge website it will give you most of the dates for previous releases.
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Dentie & Hancocks,
Have I got this right, Pacific Edge have suggested that sales via the NPN’s have a seven month lead time before the first sales will in practice really start to come through those channels.
Acknowledging of course that the ‘seven months’ is in all practicality just a coarse estimate provided by Pacific Edge, probably based on a feel for the market from their discussions with NPN managers.
The accumulation of sales might then commence from May for Fedmed, July for ACPN, August for Stratos and November for Multiplan.
The pending reporting period is April through September, so we may just see some very early sales start to trickle in, it would be nice though just to see the NPN sales curve initiate.
Without Medicare revenues being released within this reporting period, my estimate for the HY is for between 1,000 to 5,000 thousand sales, probably closer to the lower end of that range, although it would be nice to be pleasantly surprised.
Attachment 6429
I think also Hancock’s what some often miss in the big picture is the anticipated gross margins.
It’s such a low overhead company, helped along by low cost development in Dunedin, low cost but high quality I would say though as a caveat. The labs are all built and paid for, COGS is just test processing, sales force and overheads.
It doesn’t take a lot of sales to become very quickly profitable at 81% gross margins, around 15,000 by my estimation.
Pacific Edge are not at all like tech stocks whereby years of revenue accumulation is first required to achieve economies of scale to then achieve profitability on relatively lower margins.
Should the KP user programme that’s presently underway roll over into a contract, and I see a lot more reason why it should than should not, then my calculator tells me that one contract alone would probably make Pacific Edge a profitable going concern.
The next 12 to 18 months are really quite prospective, and this pending report I anticipate may spell that out, but no one should expect big sales at this next report, too early just yet.
From the Pacific Edge site, Fedmed signed 16 Oct, ACPN 22 Oct, Stratose 28 Nov and Multiplan 25 May this year. Given 7 months as the gestation period, ACPN should have been generating in May as well as FedMed, Stratose in June.
However, Fedmed was the first to sign up and was used as THE example as to how long it CAN take to get the whole cycle completed. This does not say that others cannot be quicker or slower, in fact I wouldnt be surprised if some of the 170 odd sales at March FY may have emanated from some of the others.
G’day MAC, not ignoring…been offline.
Considering the info available, I reckon you and Hancocks (& Miner) are about as close to being on the button as can be expected with sales numbers. I remember DD taking the time at the AGM to point out the significance of this 7 month lead in time between signing the agreements and the start of the revenue.
Hancocks, I’m not so sure on the accounting recognition of the accruing CMS business. If they are not free tests (& pretty sure they are not), I can’t see why they wouldn’t be recorded as a Receivable (until the agreement is signed), especially if the relevant COGS/Expenses is being accounted for. I’m sure one of our Accounting friends can help us here though.
In any event, looking at Hancocks’ sales territory diagram the other day, the sales related employees on the books and the current agreements…it is hard to imagine that the next sales figures will be too paltry (which I know is subjective).
Good point Miner,
Looking at the market also, there’s actually been quite a lot of progress compared with this time last year when one reflects, all a good investment in future revenue and all in parallel also, much of that work should one would hope start to come to fruition from next year forward.
- Tests now being performed (accrued) for CMS
- First HMO user programme under way with prospectively a contract coming, and four network providers signed up
- Sales territories opened up with 8 sales staff presumably busy chatting away with LUGS
GOVERNMENTAL 50%
30% CMS (Medicare & Medicaid)
20% VA (Veterans association)
PRIVATE INSURANCE 45%
20% LUGS (Large Urology Groups)
5% Other Urology Practices
20% HMO (Health Maintenance Organisations)
OTHER 5%
5% OSHA (Occupational Health & Safety Associations)
Hey does anyone have a calendar of expected announcements coming up? Going by past ann's we should have the HY on the 28 November.