This in from Cellmid Annual Report
CDY 9:34 AM AGM Presentation by CEO 33
see page 11 especially.
CX Bladder
800k for 2014 and 1m to date???????????????
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This in from Cellmid Annual Report
CDY 9:34 AM AGM Presentation by CEO 33
see page 11 especially.
CX Bladder
800k for 2014 and 1m to date???????????????
Could you be onto something there?
It may be alot easier to get confirmation information from cellmid (information about PEB sales indirectly)
Reimbursement for over 150millon Americans? 150million sales? That would be hard to believe at this stage
I suppose it could mean that they have reimbursement rights for 150 mil potential sales,
but the fact that they have stated that they have already secured 800k revenue (single digit royalties) certainly makes one wonder.
It certainly brings up questions--how many sales does that represent?
Well, that’s certainly appears at face value to be way ahead of what Cellmid was telling us just last year;
“Cellmid will collect milestone payments and royalties of ~1.5% for an annualised return of $743,000 in the fifth year”
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au...013-39465.html
Although, much of that estimated $800k probably comprises milestone payments, still though a positive and encouraging insight.
According to these guys (http://www.rmresearch.com.au/wp-cont.../cellmid-3.pdf) industry standard royalties are 4% which suggests $25m sales to date shich sounds far to high.
Maybe they are including the 1M shares they received in that $1m - what was the shareprice when those shares were issues? (EDIT. cant find when they were issued but first sale was in October 2013 - during October 2013, the price ranged from 50c to $1.49) (Edit 2: The shares were issued in July 2013 http://www.evaluategroup.com/Univers...tory&id=459926 so say an average of 60c = NZ600k which is is ~AUD$530k)
Dont know what it is exactly, perhaps licence fees. Initially I thought 800k divided by 3% of 500.00 gives 53000 tests. Later it says royalties expected late 2014.
Anyone got any clues on this, we need enlightening and quickly.
If it is royalties that 90cents atm seems a tad undervalued.:)
The RM Research on Cxbladder last year, on behalf of Cellmid, estimated royalties to Cellmid in 2014 of $213k, but based on $10M in Cxbladder revenues to Pacific Edge.
http://www.rmresearch.com.au/wp-cont...March-2013.pdf
Thus, of the estimated $800k, either most will probably be milestone payments, or, PEB will be way way ahead of the curve on sales, or it could be a little of both ?
It's really too hard to accurately say without knowing the schedule and magnitude of the milestone payments. Still, it does though seem to be a positive signal even without an ability to fully crunch the numbers.
Revenues vs Royalties.
They both start with R I guess...
Cellmid SP hasn't really moved since the presentation. CxBladder is only one of Cellmid's irons inthe fire, though an important one. The company's CEO was buying up shares on her own account on the open market a couple of weeks ago at about the current level.
Very often with biotech agreements, milestone payments are event linked rather than time linked, whilst Pacific Edge and Cellmid haven’t publically offered insight into their contract agreement, the milestone payment may well also be linked to commercialisation progress rather than just as an annualised payment, it would be nice to know.
The 2014 AR for Cellmid states that a milestone payment of 800k was received from PEB.......triggered by commencement of sales in USA
The 150 million Americans who have secure reimbursement in place relates to the 4 signed up Reimburers
Stand at ease team.....:cool:
They were issued 1m shares at about the time they were worth 60c. That was triggerd by the first sale. I assume after that, they go onto normal royalties rather than further milestone payments. Royalties will be 1.5 ~ 4% depending on which article above you beleive.
Not sure which info you wanted the source of, but assume it's the last.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/co...ase-56945.html
Cheers for that.
Man, Exact Sciences over in the US is getting it right with their bio marker test for Colon Cancer - Cologuard. Official FDA approval, and now Medicare coverage for those who meet the criteria shortly after. Big gains in the SP consequently.
Disc, still holding a good chunk.
Mac, empty your PM please,
Miner
Thanks for bring this up Andy. Would others like to retort on why this has not been brought up before in regards to PEB comercial challengers, especially since it is a publicly listed company?
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EXAS
Hi BFG, it does pop up on the thread from time to time, Cologuard is a screening test, Cxcolorectal is a late stage prognostic test, so there is no direct competition between those particular two.
http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Advisor.../UCM390227.pdf
Andy’s point I think was more about what can happen when screening tests like Cologuard and Cxbladder do take off.
There does seem to be a range of colorectal prognostic companion diagnostic tests on the market which would compete with Cxcolorectal, that’s not new news and some of those products have been around for a few years now.
Cxbladder has an edge because it is the first to the market with fully RNA based technology and outperforms the existing competition that has also been around for years, this is why all Pacific Edge resources are focused upon it at present rather than colorectal or melanoma cancers.
There does seem to be a place in the market for Cxcolorectal too though particularly if it also performs well.
The likely market is Japan where they now have the patent rights, possibly a partner agreement with a Japanese pharma whom may require a complementary companion diagnostic test.
Some of the US pharma’s have had their own colorectal companion diagnostic tests for some time now, Roche for example, other european pharma's too.
Andy may also be making the point that if PEB had gone the extra and got FDA approval for CxBladder - the deal with CMS would already have been well in the bag and the SP way up.
It seems to me the FDA are the big kahuna's that need to be satisfied for anybody trying to break into the medical market in the US. Yes, it is possible to get in without FDA but as we are witnessing...the wait is laborious.
Correct Mac and Dentie, there does seem to be numerous similarities between cxBladder and Cologuard. Which is why I find it confusing that Pacific Edge inform us FDA approval is not necessary, yet Cologuard has it anyway. I thought it might be because Cologuard appears to be marketed very much as an 'at home' test versus cxBladder being aimed at Urologists.
I wonder if it is a matter of simply 'going the extra mile' to get it, and if it would in fact help speed up CMS coverage.
Probably worth hearing if the company's position on FDA approval has changed recently..
Yes, the advice was provided via Edison;
It seems FDA approval is not necessary at present but may be required in several year’s time due to regulatory changes. The Pacific Edge marketing strategy revolves around securing the large HMO’s, that’s where the big US revenues will come from, CLIA certification is understood by them as the necessary approval. The loose change from direct marketing will require FDA approval if or when they pursue it.
“Pacific Edge management is currently exploring the pathway to full FDA approval for the Cxbladder portfolio, which would enable the company to directly market to consumers. At this stage CLIA certification is sufficient for direct selling to physicians given the tests are processed in the company’s own lab”
“Pacific Edge also faces the potential threat of a new regulatory hurdle in the US. On 31 July 2014 the FDA provided notice of its intent to issue draft guidance providing a risk-based framework for new regulatory requirements of LDTs such as Cxbladderdetect. In practice the enactment could take time. According to the framework, the new requirements for LDTs are to be phased in over several years”
“Once reviewed, a product would likely be judged on its safety and would then be required to either follow a formal pre-market approval (PMA) registration process or an optional registration. Given the long notice period, we expect Pacific Edge will have adequate time and resources to prepare for this”
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch..../pacific-edge1
I've sold my 25000 at 0.92. I said to myself if XRO trades 5% lower to consider and yeah. Will get back in once my nerves settle.
I presume that means FDA approval would be required before we'd see it sold online in the US? Just outlining this for the sake of clarity, not because the timeline of going online is overly consequential because as you say Mac it's not a significant part of their marketing strategy.
Well you see, the thing about the mirroring is that it's not exactly time synched. I refer to my post (9846 on this thread) when PEB had pretty much bottomed out at 0.65 and XRO moved, and I was pretty sure PEB would follow (but it was lagged):
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post498764
Now this 2c rise today, 0.93 sells were slim to start with, now they're stacked. I was the only seller at 0.92 this morning when I sold, now that too looks stacked, and .90 looking weaker. The buys are getting weaker and the sells are getting stronger as time goes on today. In fact, look at the total volumes on each side right now... 117,866 to 483,755. I am just a little worried right now.
I'm not locking profits, I bought at an average of $1.20. My main aim is to increase the 25,000 shares I had to something a bit more without putting in more money.
Looks like you made the right call there Klid--I did the same thing a while back only same amount of shares at a lower price after buying-selling-buying so I cant fault your strategy.
I would say good luck,but not keen to see SP drop:)
The depth screen is not necessarily a good indicator. The fall today and yesterday aren't really that material considering the hit the markets over all are taking
There was above average volume on the rise to the retest of 95c and then low volume yesterday and today. This shows that large effort was required for the price to rise and low effort for the price to fall. But overall its been pretty low volume in this trendless period without large accumulation or distribution as further developments are awaited.
You may be right wolf--but I decided to stick to my strategy of locking in profits if it fell to 85 (sold at 86)It was a defensive move -[the 88 got pulled when the sell dried up)
There were several reasons for this (besides sticking to my plan of letting profits run but not watching it fall past a certain point)
The first is that id planned on selling before sales as I think they still could be low and the general investor crowd could get a bit titchy.
The second is the market in general is looking scarey to me --It could drive the price down ,even though it is a perfectly good outfit.
If that does happen Ill be back on board.
Both of those reasons dont necessarily mean anything against PEB as a company--I think they will get there--Its investers and the market that Im not so sure about.---I will continue to watch both PEB and the DOW with interest--Best of luck to those still in
disc .banked couple grand this time around to cover the grand lost first time around with a grand left over
''He who fights and runs away-lives to fight another day''
Different participant's sentiment is interesting to watch... seems like a lot just enjoy playing pass the parcel while others trade our market based on what happens in other markets.
Why not just wait until it gets back down to 10c - 20c so a lot more can be bought?
If the business and its product/s are robust, why sell off just because the Dow/Nasdaq dropped? What's changed? Does it mean the US will no longer be interested in CXBladder? Is it about not wanting to wet your pants or just trying to keep up with the Jones's?
Just as well entertainment comes in different forms.....
Looks like it is just following the EMA14 trend line (on a weekly price chart to smooth out noise). And as klid said above, its strengthening now.
http://puu.sh/cbid6/801dc227cf.png
It always interested me Dentie as to how many of us start out short, trying to be cute with charts and timing, and then end up becoming longer term investors once we realise just how much of very little gained for the effort has gone to the brokers and the tax man.
I went from being 1100 down to 1000 up from being cute--Dont count me out yet as a long term holder
Those who disregard the Dow and other markets as having nothing to do with NZ shares ,maybe need to go back and look at how things went over here when the Dow tanked some years back.
Im not saying PEB wont do well from here,but if the overseas market tank it will be a real struggle--
I made a plan and am sticking to it,just like Im sure others have(although some dont seem to have one)
No bitterness here if it goes up in value--Hope you can say the same if it goes down.
There's no criticism of anyone's "concept" or "plan" from me Skid. My post was intended to be one of reflection and interest on the trading behaviour of other participants - precisely because I have been around in REAL corrections.
1987 was an interesting time which is where I learned some lessons. I then saved some dosh and applied what I learned in the 2007 correction by taking positions in the face of the stampeding herd.
A “correction” implies a stock has got ahead of itself - PEB was in that space earlier this year. I do not think PEB should be subject to any correction at the moment because IMHO, it is not overvalued.
My view on this is the same as MAC’s and for me at least, I try to learn from what I perceive to be others’ mistakes. For me, it is perilous to trade anything but an “established” share and, to my mind, PEB is certainly not yet an established share.
Investing in shares on the other hand can be very pleasurable and exciting, especially if there is no margin calls involved.
Or a correction implies the market has got ahead of itself [why sell off because the Dow/Nasdaq dropped]--Since you have been around some real corrections (I stand corrected) you will no doubt know the answer to that question.
But we are not in a correction yet and although its looks like we may be in dangerous territory it is not a given.
It was just one of the issues to be considered--guess we all just have to look at the factors we consider relevant to us and make a decision.
I still dont get why those who sell and buy back in because things just dont seem right at the time (and then do) are automatically kicked out of the high five long term holders club ------------as Arney said ''ILL be back'' (maybe)
I don't know why you can't use your original username but your hoofprints are on all your old favorite threads, and I can see your antlers
each to their own I guess.......
Lol, I have seen it, but he hasn't given me a shot with it yet. Just got QN certified btw.....
Hi moosie.. :)
It used to be that we all had to follow the nasdaq bio..
It's up today...
Man,Its a good thing most of us slept through that day on the DOW---down 460 and then coming back to only 173 down--whichever way it goes Volatility is king atm.
It will be interesting to see how the different shares interpret this.
I just hope they get this Ebola thing under control--Otherwise the share market will be the least of our worries
What The.... Is it just games or has someone put in a massive sell taking out all down to 82??
Probably trying to trigger stop losses:)
Its safe up to 84 now--these premarket games are crazy
2 sellers have gotten cold feet 174000
So now its down 10 cents from where it was a couple of weeks ago- why? Nothing has changed for this share- it still has the same amount of potential.
Doesnt matter--atm investers are not willing to pay as much for that potential--they are scared
Ive looked at peb-air- xro -sum----they are all down--coincidence?
And now someone buying 500 back @ 87---
All kinds of games going on today
-should be an interesting day
So now a 2nd nurse is confirmed with Ebola in the states(she just got off a commercial airliner hours before feeling sick)WHO now thinks incubation could be double the 21days first predicted
I think Its time to start the inevitable thread--(wont clutter up this thread with more info)
I think you mean a frustrated Moose Back For Good there Mac.
Theres a big difference between wanting volatility,corrections ,and meltdowns and wanting to avoid them--The age old question,debated before ,is just how much does that sort of thing affect a share like PEB if it happens --someone obviously decided to bail earlier--what happens now is any ones guess--there is nothing wrong with some one who likes the company as much as you do,taking a chance to get back in at a lower price(or more shares)--its like waiting for a sale to for your apple computer.
Its not panic time ,but there is reason for caution IMO--(boy those buyers that jumped in when the DOW was down 460 have got balls of steel!--it does show that there is still the motivation for a good deal over just plain fear----Guess we'll just have watch that space.
Fair enough, each to their own, just can’t be bothered with it personally, years ago I may have. I just resolved over time that between being occasionally lucky with the timing, the brokerage, and the tax, it wasn’t really providing much reward, less than just holding well managed stocks whilst they retain good fundamentals, or perhaps I just wasn’t good at it. It can be quite exciting though for those who are new to it all trying to chase the market. Agree though, if you’ve got cash on the sidelines it may be present an entry point, or a stock like this which is well undervalued already and already beaten up may not move much at all.
I guess with me it was less about trading to make dosh but more about stepping out if things were looking uncomfortably volatile.
Its holding its own today so thats good for holders--Funny how it goes back and forth between 85 and 87--You would think 86 does'nt exist!:)
That’s the thing isn’t Skid, it can be crystal ball gazing at times, selling today when the US markets are already 8 or 9% into what may only be a 10% correction can be a fraught with all sorts of uncertainty in itself, then there is the risk of mistiming a re-entry, could be tomorrow or on any day that a FED official chooses to sneeze, could gap higher and then that humble 1% differential less brokerage and tax is toast.
You may have jumped out earlier on, but for others to have a go today they would have to have cajones of steel or some serious skills to make such an equation routinely work.
Still generally I think for most folk, the risk of being out of the market is greater than being in until the central bank tightening cycle concludes, that’s a fair way off yet, could even be 2016 IMO.
Actually I would have been better off to have jumped today (1ct)--And you may be right--Just dont like the look of the odds ATM,and dare I say it ,Im leaning towards the TA ers ATM-- and...That was a close call last night.
Does a correction have to stop at 10%?
Interesting day though--all that and it ended up at the same SP (and not one 86 in the lot!)
State Two – Losing
The ACCG indicates that the losing stage lasts longer than 5 years. During this time, the action compulsive gambler bets increasingly larger sums and steps up the pace and frequency of his gambling. If queried, he will usually dismiss it as “just a losing streak,” insisting that he can recoup his losses. In such self-delusional state, he doubles down on bets, and bets on the long shots even when he has the nagging feeling they won’t win – all in the hope of the big payday. The result is he loses much more often than he wins and, consequently, bets even more money in the frantic race to win it all back, a practice known as “chasing his losses.”
http://www.elementsbehavioralhealth....sive-gambling/
QUOTE=NewGuy;512081]Phew! You had me worried there. :ohmy:[/QUOTE]
Im guessing you and i are suffering most on our Sum holdings due to the size of them.
Gone past this stage Casino, not trying to recoup losses just happy to sit long term on what I've got now and add to my dividend paying stocks, I'm actually quite at peace even sitting on a big paper loss as all that frantic buying and selling wears you to a frazzle and I don't feel like paying a brokers salary in fees this year.
Not having anyone on just being straight up and hopefully bringing some comfort to others who are toughing it out currently as well as presenting a warning to newbies about doing things the wrong way, don't really have any money to buy anything right now which is kinda ironic considering buying all the stocks I hold over again right now would present some serious upside. PS-Id have no problem showing someone on here living in my area my portfolio to prove the above.
OK we believe you -i suppose running out of cash is one type of safety net-They say its a correction and not a financial crisis but Im not sure we have seen the bottom yet--Looks like the market is ''taking a breather'' today--Most say a correction is needed anyway with the markets running rampant from QE.
Now they are trying to ween off QE and you can see the result--Fed has had to step in and hint at continuing or even increasing QE again to calm the markets (Are the markets addicted to QE?)
when faced with the prospect of losing future gains or losing what I have ,I choose the former this time around.
Burn those credit cards Couts:)
Money printing - http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/16/inve...d-wall-street/
Ebola under control in the US - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...r-defends.html
Upcoming US earnings data should be positive - No source sorry but I did read it.
So I am not so worried now. Cancelled my order at 88 I had.
Where do you live? I'd love to have a nosey and a chat
Your first point certainly saved the day (for now) The money printing thing is good for the short term but its what before would have been unthinkable to consider--Are they destined to go indefinitely on life support?
Your second point is misleading in the sense that its one of those things that no one can really say.
There were 100 people on the plane the sick nurse was on--It has an up to 40 day incubation period--There will be more ,you can count on it.
Your first point is probably the most important for your purposes for now though--so far so good--hows those balls holding up?
Heres the first paragraph of your article(Klid)
Republican lawmakers sharply criticized the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s response to the Ebola outbreak as agency director Thomas Frieden said the virus is not a “significant public health threat
What a joke (a bad one) one guy comes in with Ebola--2 Nurses treating him--all end up with the desease.
What planet is Thomas Frieden on?
So Couta, you been skiing at Ruapehu then? I figured that you were a South Islander and were hitting those lovely slopes- although I think they have closed the fields now I think?
just been down for 3 awesome days at Turoa, just gorgeous and the season closes next week I think.....
Like reading your candid assessment on things btw., good to see you are not panicking and just riding it out......
Yeah CB have done about 8 days at Ruapehu this season mainly at Turoa which I love,was invited to go this week with friends but had to work, will hopefully get one last day next week, also did 8 days on the Queenstown fields but they are all closed now, I was a ski bum at Mt Hutt for a couple of seasons in my late teens and then had a 30 year break only starting back up at the ripe age of 50 three years ago, glad you enjoy your skiing its a great sport and helps keep life balanced and ride out these difficult share market times.