https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ARTMKJ3WO4KPU/
paywalled
This is a good read if you can access it.
Pertinent excerpt : "Ultimately, the fate of such bonds, and almost all other offshoots from the malaise in Chinese property, depends on Beijing. The Chinese state owns almost all of the country's large financial institutions, meaning that if Beijing orders them to bail out Evergrande or other distressed property companies, they will follow orders.
In some overseas markets the idea that Evergrande's distress may presage a "Lehman moment" — recalling the chaos that followed the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers 13 years ago — has gained traction. But given Beijing's influence and vested interests, the analogy does not easily fit.
"Unless China's regulators seriously mismanage the situation, a systemic crisis in the country's financial sector is not on the cards," says He Wei, an analyst at Gavekal, a research company.
Indeed,
the main cause of Evergrande's crisis and the downturn in the broader property sector is Beijing itself. The "three red lines" that the Xi government announced last year stipulate that developers must keep debt levels within reasonable bounds."