I always calculate the % on how much I put in . Otherwise I sell my best shares. I have about 20% in them on market value but 10% on cost ,I'm happy to go to 15-20% on cost. Every dividend I put 50 % back in.
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I always calculate the % on how much I put in . Otherwise I sell my best shares. I have about 20% in them on market value but 10% on cost ,I'm happy to go to 15-20% on cost. Every dividend I put 50 % back in.
Like this and they normally apply 2.5% discount:
" The strike price is the volume weighted average sale price in New Zealand
dollars (expressed in cents and fractions of cents) for a
Share calculated on all trades of Shares which took place
through the NZX Main Board over the period of 5 trading
days immediately following the Record Date."
Good question, without refuting the supposition that financial stocks are the first to be hammered and the worst hit in a reversal of global markets sentiment.
It is a long bow to draw suggesting all have the wherewithal to make timely decisions on when to exit. Most here are in it for the FA, the encouragement and the relentless SP appreciation, or some or all of the above
What many may not realise is those same few rampers are adept at being first in the exit queue when the sh1t inevitably hits the fan. And they won't tell until weeks or months afterwards, about their miraculously timely exit. Talk the book, just the book and only the book. All good when it's relentless upwards which we all know doesn't go on forever.
This isn't a school of hard knocks, it's a school of buyer beware.
If that's being a sour sheep, we'll excuse me for pointing out the obvious.
i agree buyer beware ; If you are easily influenced you could get the dump from the pumper.
I often worry about the influence Sharetrader has.
I would guess Sharetrader members/guests hold over $15mil worth of Heartland stock.
There are a great number of people who are not posters,but read Sharetrader.
These people do not know who posts drivel,and who knows what they are talking about.
No one bothers to read a whole thread, so they can find out for themselves.
The only way to be successful in the sharemarket, is to put in the hard work doing your own research.
No internet discussion forum is a "magic bullet".It is just a discussion forum,where we discuss shares.
Therefore "cavaet emptor."
HBL has been rerated over the last year or so to the extent that is now outrageously overvalued (see previous posts)
But ever mind the world is such a happy place at the moment - even the S&P500 is now trading on price:sales ration never ever been seen before (even 2000/2001)
So don't worry about a outrageous valuation of HBL - sentiment will take it much higher. They can do no wrong and that's enough
HBL will be $2 at announcement time and when Jeff mentions $70m profit for F18 the share price could go anywhere. HBL has as much appeal as that awesome Jacinda has so what can go wrong.
Did Percy say $2.50 next year
Is a FY18 PE of ~ 14.5 really overpriced given their track record of steady growth and especially relative to a market trading on average at over 20 times FY18 earnings ?
Maybe the stock has been mispriced in the past trading on 12.5 - 13.5 times forward earnings ?
Talk of $2.50 seems a little presumptuous to me but then again we have some quality companies trading on multiples well into the 30's so maybe a mid-late teens forward PE is possible ? One thing for sure, I will not be selling when it hits $2.
Sold out of my position completely today. I'm happy to move on and likely to do so with energy stocks too. For mine, forward PE of 14+ is fully priced (and some more) even with their recent track record yadda yadda. Comparison to 20x wider market may be relative but most of my relatives are awful... and financially illiterate. Good luck with $2.50...
Fair enough but what's the alternative ?, we agree the whole market is priced "up there" FWIW I had another look at my forward estimates on this one the other day and assuming fair / reasonable market / economic conditions I don't see $2.50 until 2019, (probably late that year). Interestingly based on average 4trader forward earnings estimates this stock shows a 4-5% superior growth rate compared to the average of its peer banks in Australia, HBL estimated earnings growth 7-8% over the FY18 and FY19 years vs average of WBC, NAB, ANZ BOQ and BEN 2-3% earnings growth outlook.
HBL currently trades on a PE premium of 1.6 extra (14.6) on FY 18 estimated EPS of 12.9 cps compared to an average of 13 for its peers for the same year but to my mind that premium plus potentially a little bit more is certainly warranted based on their superior track record and forecast growth in EPS. My fair value for the stock is currently $1.83-$1.90 as of Friday this week based on estimated EPS for FY18 and FY19 but I'll know more tomorrow. I would lighten my position somewhat if it got to more than 115% of where I see fair value.