More than good greekwatchdog --- amazing sales numbers
MAT (12 month rolling number 67% higher than a year ago
This is what real inflection points look like
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More than good greekwatchdog --- amazing sales numbers
MAT (12 month rolling number 67% higher than a year ago
This is what real inflection points look like
This level of sales could easily generate $75m of realised gains
H120 was just over $20m
Good half year result coming up I reckon
Excellent result for SUM, congrats to holders. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...ator-summerset
I think we're in for a very long journey with Covid and all the variants. This is highly likely to drive very strong demand right across this sector for many years to come.Quote:
Post-Covid we are seeing an increasing volume of people wanting to come into a village,” Scoullar said. The company was building to meet the consistently strong demand for units from the country’s older population seeking the security, safety and companionship of a retirement village.
Property prices still on the rise …lady said defying expectations and refusing to cool
HPI for June 0.9% higher than May
This has to be good news for SUM
June report ex NZIER
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...une%202021.pdf
Annual increases in property's prices impressive but growth is slowing ….from a gallop to a canter
Latest month 0.9% x 12 = 10.8% annualized. Up 2.4% past 3 months x 4 = 9.6% annualized.
Still strong enough to adjust my expectations upwards of realised gains SUM will make this half year to $80m/$90m
That isn't how you analyse compounding price increases is it Winner?
0.9% per month: POLD x (1.009)^12 = PNEW => Multiplying Factor = 1.11
2.4% per 3 months: POLD x (1.024)^4 = PNEW => Multiplying factor = 1.10
To two decimal places, the growth is the same in each case.
SNOOPY
Ryman report 82% increase in first quarter sales
SUM probably doing just as well, if not better
H1 results should be a boomer …might increase my forecast of realised gains to to $85m
Bugger …only $70m but whose complaining
H1 underlying $75.5m ….real profit npat $264m
Pretty amazing
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...781/352863.pdf
Well picked mate, you're a legend. Very strong result.
c'mon beagle - very strong - no no - exceptional surely
Considering just over $100m is their best FULL year ever $76m in H1 is exceptional
Quick look -
1) They actually made money out of caring and looking after people (ie non property activities)
2) Property market price increases seem to have flowed through to Summerset
Both are important and why preferred company in sector
Very happy with the result, although given the share price is ~$13 I think this is in the order of what the market expected.
The result is staggering, the building pipeline, the waitlist. All of it is very impressive and probably signals where the retirement village market is headed. I think in a few years time, it will be a talking point about which retirement village offering is best to retire at with all the future cashed up retirees about to hit the market.
In terms of valuation, they've shown that they can deliver units and sell them in the market. I'd give them a forward PE of 25 based on a conservative full year underlying profit of $130m. I think its a fair valuation, not sure how they can make compounded growth above and beyond where they are but I'm happy to be pleasantly surprised.
Happy to keep holding, won't be adding to it at these prices.
Shouldn't be any surprises to posters here that I've built good spreadsheets on SUM over the years. Winner almost perfect HY1 forecast of $75m was totally logical based on their sales but until you actually see it in black and white as of this morning it really seems to be “pie in the sky“ stuff. (Very brave of you Winner for putting your neck on the line, full respect:))
Here's some more numbers to contemplate;
-Second half results are ALWAYS much stronger, generally 18-25% stronger in HY2.
-The ratio of underlying profit to sales is consistent over the years so there's no one off surprise or unsustainability about this result.
-Their increased build rate underlines this future growth.
- All this points to a underlying FY result of about $160-170m
Given a PE of say 25 the SP should hit $18.
I haven't owned SUM for many years now as the evidence was they were simply producing too many units ahead of demand. They were troubled for a couple of years with too much empty stock.
However in the meantime property has gone through the roof but more important to my mind is the demand now in play by the clients. The penetration rates ( % of people wanting to move into a village) seems to have taken a big step up. A few years ago it was about 12-13% or so and now has climbed over 15%. That's a ton of new clients to accommodate. All operators are consistently saying how strong demand continues.
The result bodes well for all the players in this industry. ( except RAD, I have no time for that listing)
SUM has been the biggest winner of this demand either by good luck or most probably, supreme foresight.
SUM deserves a huge thumbs up for their consistent outstanding planning and execution.
And they've bought more land - enough for 300 units in Palmerston North and 200 in Melbourne
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...773/352816.pdf
Great result but I am a little cautious that lockdown will suck a bit of gas out of the tank in the second half.
This share is making me feel like Warren Buffet. If only the feeling was reality...
Talk about smashing thru all time highs. $15 soon?
Just brought up a chart of Turners TRA over the last year who kept the subsidy and over that timeframe has outperformed all the stocks you mentioned that repaid it.
Maybe repayment has no relevance at all to the share price and its only macro economic and company specific factors affecting the share prices ?
Yes it is...could of, would have, should have...oh for the benefit of perfect hindsight.
NZ Herald -
Greg Smith, head of research with Fat Prophets, said it was a cracking result. "Summerset is flush with cash and is expanding in New Zealand and Australia
The question is can OCA pull something out of the bag and not in 5 years time... waiting on OCA...time goes by slowly...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDwb9jOVRtU
Cool video mate...wonder if she got that raunchy outfit at Glassons ;)
Share price has sure been pretty sexy lately, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dsh0TfIKhoE
OCA will hit $2 one day, late 2022 / early 2023, I reckon.
"wonder if she got that raunchy outfit at Glassons"
well MR B ill go right over to glasson at the base level 2 and chat to a stunning sales person i know who works there and ask how it all going..
Better keep those OCA shares then for about a decade.
By then they could be worth a LOT MORE..$15.00?
Prehaps pay for the view on the baltic...
Baltic Dry ticked up to recently , world busy shipping stuff... Perhaps a lot of clothes coming out of the sub continent amongst it. The Europeans need clothes also and those H&M stores in sweden will need their supplies.
Mr B might want to check air cargo charges in and out of China . The strict virus control measures is taking a toll on the number of cargo handlers.
Supply chain costs look set to take another few legs up.
Bought these in the $5 in late 2017 and continue to hold, only thing I don't have is enough SUM shares!
The runway for growth is there, only thing I could see happening is the price maybe getting carried away in the short term. The long term for this one from a earnings perspective is great.
What was the old supposed Share price ratio? Rym:Sum, 2:1? RYM currently $15.39; SUM $15.51. Yikes.
Sales update Q3 coming soon
Will give us an idea how sector sales are going and lockdown impacts
I thought ARV's update was good yesterday. Would expect the same for the remainder of the sector as well.
Just been told by a tradie they can’t get onsite unless they are fully vaccinated. There maybe a time limit on it, he is angry they are forcing him to take it.
Wonder at just how many there might be out there across society.
News Article published the results; only 1/4 of those phoned in an over 65 contacted group booked a jab on the spot.
You have to start to think there is a bigger problem that you might imagine.
I went to a Service station office (in SE Auckland) to pay for some petrol yesterday and passed very close to two tradies (I presume, they returned to a Ute with tradie equipment) coming out unmasked and animatedly chatting to each other. I asked the masked attendant if that was allowed. He only noticed they were unmasked when I pointed them out. He said they serve everyone masked or not. It is Little wonder the cases continue and our lock down has dragged on.
Trades are in short supply mind you, the 2 remaining small rest homes i do work in don't worry about me not being vaccinated, I follow all the other protocols like temp taking/mask wearing and seeing residents in their own rooms and of course they have all been vaccinated, they also ask if you have been to Auckland over the last while, im classified as low risk to them so its all good.
I would have thought the Govt and MoH are the arrogant ones after all their failures lead to this outbreak. And I still haven't heard the PM or Ashley apologize for their failures. I don't see Couta response as Arrogant and there are many I work with who wont take the vaccine. If all residents in the facility having been offered there shots and not taken it is it our fault? There are choices as thats our democratic right.
3Q21 Sales Metrics - Sales of Occupation Rights - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
"The number of sales to date equate to 95% of full year sales in 2020."
SUM sales trend still strong ....especially after passing the inflection point
Bit of a dip in resales but this comes after recent really stellar quarters and still ahead of trend ...... and maybe not too many died last summer
Underlying earnings could be $150m plus on these numbers
4Q21 Metrics - Sales of Occupation Rights - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
10 January 2022
4Q21 METRICS – SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS
Summerset Group is pleased to report 234 sales for the quarter ending 31 December 2021, comprising 121 new sales and 113 resales.
Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said total sales in 2021 reached 978 up 25% on FY20.
“That’s a new annual sales record for Summerset and comes despite ongoing COVID-19 interruptions. We are seeing good growth in waitlists demonstrating that demand for our offer of retirement living remains robust,” Mr Scoullar said.
Mr Scoullar said Q4 sales were strong, despite the Auckland and Waikato regions being in lockdown for much of the quarter.
“We have had good diversification of sales across the country with new units now being sold at 12 of our villages across New Zealand, and additional villages to start selling in 2022,” Mr Scoullar said.
Uncontracted new stock remains low across the country, particularly for villas.
Approximately 63% of uncontracted new sales stock is made up of the final independent living apartments at Ellerslie in Auckland and serviced apartments around the country.
Serviced apartments are needs based and typically take longer to sell than villas and independent living apartments. Ellerslie’s last apartments – housed in the Heritage building – have been selling well.
Mr Scoullar said the first quarter of 2022 was looking strong with 58% of new deliveries presold.
In 2022, Summerset will start construction at four new sites in Milldale (Auckland), Blenheim (Marlborough), Cambridge (Waikato), and Waikanae (Kapiti Coast), as well as continuing construction at another 13 sites around New Zealand and the building of its first Australian units underway at Cranbourne North (Melbourne).
ENDS
So 978 sales for year pretty good ..... pity it wasn't 1,000 eh
Record year - last 3 years trend looking good - 652 in 2019 and then 785 and 978 this year
Should lead to a record profit - look forward to that
Should see Underlying Profit of $135m/$140m for FY21 -- F20 was $98m
Pretty solid performance in a difficult year I reckon :t_up:
MMH - they say one data point does not make a trend ... but now its already the second quarter dropping.
Just an observation ... does not need to mean anything :):
Attachment 13385
From MOH today
Summerset by the Park Rest Home Flat Bush
An Auckland aged residential care worker associated with the family from Nelson, has tested positive for COVID-19. The worker is fully vaccinated and Whole Genome Sequencing is being carried out however we are treating this as a contact of a known Omicron case.
The resthome is now closed to visitors and testing is being carried out on residents and staff.
Anyone who has visited the rest home since Friday 21 January and has symptoms of COVID-19 is asked to isolate and get a test as soon as possible.
Bit like stop and go signs ... open and closed signs.... big blinking sign on every web site..
Dont forget to check before you leave home unless your biking, walking the dog canoeing ect.
Same game plan then... games plans usually get stale and then you need a new plan and a new team.
Stale game plan... retirement villages in the firing line then.
That's not the experience in Canada or Australia, but it's pretty bad regardless judging by the % of deaths overall and the % of rest homes that have or had outbreaks.
"
- As at 12 January 2022, Canada had experienced 31,595 deaths. This includes 15,953 deaths at residential in care homes (or 51 per cent).
- 56 per cent of all aged care homes in Canada have had reported cases of COVID-19 in residents or staff (compared to 40 per cent in Australia)."
well those figures tell us from a human effort perspective the work that the retirement teams are going to have to put in and probably already are heroic maybe.
A post yesterday elsewhere* that Summerset agreed to delayed settlement for a village unit to allow her to sell her own home first. Conditions said to be 10% deposit and a lawyer's undertaking. She can move in right away and the poster (daughter) said that gives time to prepare the home for sale and all that it entails with a lifetime of possessions to deal with.
Is this a common practice? Sounds like it could be a useful marketing point of difference.
* Posted on the big NZ property investor's Facebook group. Private group but with nearly 60,000 members not so private.
SUM maybe the Best Buy at the moment for long term hold ...its almost 38% below average analysts target price which incorporates all the rates and property downturn etc fears and realities .
For Bars latest.
OUTPERFORM
Summerset (SUM) has delivered the strongest organic earnings, asset, and cash flow growth within the aged care sector over the last five years. We consider it the "best in class" aged care operator. SUM has, in our view, the strongest and lowest risk pathway to growth over the next three to five years driven by a combination of its; (1) sector leading landbank, (2) youngest independent living portfolio in the sector, implying "automatic" earnings growth as villages mature, and (3) highest level of embedded value in relation to current earnings. Over the past twelve months, SUM's share price is down -12% despite delivering ~+25% earnings growth. In light of its meaningful multiple de-rating we now believe SUM offers an attractive risk/reward proposition. Upgrade to OUTPERFORM.
link
NZX Code SUM
Share price NZ$11.45
Target price NZ$13.50 (from 13.70)
Risk rating Medium
Issued shares 225.5m
Market cap NZ$2,582m
Avg daily turnover 198.0k (NZ$2,622k)
link
Financials: Dec/ 20A 21E 22E 23E
NPAT* (NZ$m) 98.3 134.4 139.7 178.9
EPS* (NZc) 43.8 59.6 62.0 79.3
EPS growth* (%) -8.4 35.9 4.0 28.1
DPS (NZc) 13.0 19.0 23.0 27.0
Imputation (%) 100 100 100 100
*Based on normalised profits
link
Valuation (x) 20A 21E 22E 23E
PE 26.1 19.2 18.5 14.4
EV/EBIT 28.8 22.1 21.4 16.8
EV/EBITDA 26.8 20.7 19.8 15.7
Price / NTA 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3
Cash div yld (%) 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.4
Gross div yld (%) 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.3
What's changed?
Target price: Decreased to NZ$13.50 (from NZ$13.70)
Rating: Upgrade to OUTPERFORM
Best in class growth, past and future
SUM has delivered a ~25% organic annuity EBITDA CAGR over the last five years, which includes two years significantly impacted by COVID-19. This is >2x the average for the other three listed aged care operators. We expect CY22 to be yet another year of disruption but think the fundamentals for strong underlying growth remains better for SUM relative to any of the other aged care operators. This is based on three key drivers, (1) SUM has a young portfolio, with only ~40% of villages mature which should drive high visibility annuity earnings growth, (2) SUM has, by some margin, the largest land bank in the sector in relation to current portfolios,, and (3) SUM's broadacre development strategy improves the cash recovery profile, provides more flexibility and allows it to bring product to market quicker.
Attractive entry point into long term winner
SUM is still trading at a discount to its largest listed peer, Ryman Healthcare (RYM). A discount that we view as unwarranted in light of the number of factors listed above. On an absolute basis, SUM is also trading at or near its lowest PE and EV/Annuity EBITDA multiple since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, this is despite delivering strong earnings growth, stable gearing and stable cash recovery in what has been a challenging backdrop for the aged care operators. Last month, we downgraded our earnings estimates across the sector (in part due to the onset of the Omicron variant) reflecting a combination of (1) expected higher labour costs, (2) lower unit sales and (3) higher level of concern in relation to house price appreciation. Our estimates remain unchanged but we believe that the market is now overcompensating for these headwinds across both SUM and the smaller cap operators in the aged care sector. We upgrade SUM to OUTPERFORM reflecting what we view as an attractive risk/reward proposition for a best in class operator with a meaningful growth runway ahead of it.
Thanks grekwatchdog for that
i've always believed SUM to be as Forbar says 'best in class'
Maybe more on this forum will take a greater interest in SUM .... still quite a few unbelievers / detractors ....maybe distracted by other hyped players
Agree its a great company and have acknowledged that many times. It also helps a lot that you don't need a post graduate masters degree in forensic accounting to understand their financial statements, (unlike another company in this sector).
That said its in a confirmed downturn and TA suggests stay away until that changes. I believe its highly likely that 2022 is going to be an absolute shocker in terms of house price declines so its going to be very hard for SUM's share price to make progress against that strong outgoing tide.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PTL2GM27UCRRY/
I don't know, Beagle, we both thought the sky was falling in March/April 2020, and it didn't materialise. In addition, house prices off the back of the GFC, was it somewhere between a 7 - 10% decline? Granted that was followed be a number of years of stagnation I think. I'd be expecting something similar this time round. Or even if it was a 15% decline (leveraged investors have disincentives they haven't faced previously, so might hurt more), have the last 12 to 18months of increases been fully baked into SUM's unit prices?
Disc. Diverted some of the HLG liberated funds into SUM this morning - just dipping a toe in at this stage
Time will tell mate but certainly in terms of the decline this time round the Auckland market made made huge strides backwards in January, down 6% in just 1 month :eek2: and volumes sold halved too ! That's not a decline, that's starting to fall off a cliff.
Retirement companies pay pathetic unimputed dividends...I am getting fatter and lazier in my semi retirement and tired of bean counting so my focus is increasingly on what makes my life more comfortable and easier in terms of fully imputed income. That said, I might get some when a new uptrend commences.
New CCFA Credit restrictions will most likely get diluted which caused major disruptions to mortgage lending causing spike down in transactions and prices ...so I wont expect more then 5-7 % actual reduction this year then 2-3 years of sideways consolidation .
Its always have been like this after huge run up in all previous cycles ...so maximum variation can be 1-3% max and that too if conditions really deteriorate badly
Resident in SUM Manukau Care Centre has Omicron.
Working hard to establish contact with staff & other residents.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...NXVXUQSEJCF2U/
I’m sure there will be omicron everywhere eventually. Right now they only want to slow it down.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...t-with-omicron
if its in every rest home the price might just pop down a bit along with the 13 percent slow down in house prices... until perhaps a change of government and interest is reinstated as a cost of capital... game on... I think MR B would be right behind that tax loop hole being closed down..
is anyone going to bother with trace and track? whats the point? The country might be on the cusp of rebellion.
The point is to slow down the spread. There's no rebellion just a shift to personal responsibility and getting used to the fact that everyone is going to get covid:)
tracking is now pointless...
be interesting to see where these SP handles end up.
Yeah could be a bit more downside to come.
I treat Broker reports as an indicator..Being a TAer (Chartist) I wait for confirmation following an indicator change...
All very nice for Forbar to be exuberant raptures but most advisors would warn the general public of the high risk when buying a Bear stock.
Yes...in hindsight SUM was trending down before the sudden price leap with the rather stella August 2021 Half Year Report..It took the market by surprise (see Chart) and it seemed the market had negative sentiment before that result. With hindsight the SUM price was undervalued..
OK...FY report due 24th February and we know from history (see chart) that SUM is no leaky boat...so with sentiment being once again negative will SUM price leap up again as it did in August? Answer Yes no maybe take your pick.(do you feel lucky). It seems being a medium term Charist didn't help much with the short term movements last August when the Market which the data for TA was derived from had that surprise.
However we can use a simple look to compare risk from the pre-reporting period August 2021 and now with the trading behavioural changes using the Chart below.
1... SUM is now a BEAR stock..instead of trending up with short corrections (price going down) it is now trending down with sofar one correction (price going up)
2...Although I'm not a great fan of Elliot Waves I have made the chart roughly marking some of the patterns and it seems the Bear wave patterns have a little way to go yet..Maybe Peat and others who are more expert in Ellicott Waves can add their expertise here.
3...Bollinger bands (BB) are loose (wide) indicating a less chance of breaking suddenly up or down forcing the bands it alter direction..Tight BB usually indicate a trend change.
4...Sentiment is the short term driver...Some of the reports I have read have seen stella last half profits with forecast of not so good next half..Will SUM be another one?
5...Eye-balling the chart SUM looks worse now than pre-report last August. (Left side of vertical blue line v right side of vertical blue line)
Disc: No SUM stocks... Have some equity stocks but most of my Capital is elsewhere...My intentions: playing the waiting game.
Attachment 13534
"Bear stock."
well Buffet was a big follower of food and all kinds of drinks.
Great doco's of Food manufactures in the US recently... some from home kitchen table on to crack nation wide distribution...
You never know where the next big food craze might come from.
Investors dream if you can get in early...
with houses prices coming off highs there might be a lack of investor sentiment before it get shrugged off and good times come again..
long way to go in the story of retirement investing for sure.
5 year chart look pretty bearish down to support at 9-10 as MR B has stated.
Results tomorrow ....W69 ? What say u ? Your take before we know actuals ....U r good with SUM data
Funny you posted that just then Winner. I've been working on SUM today just for the exercise and a personal little "systems check".
I come up with a whopping $141m, I have not dug into covid cost adjustments though and just presumed they will be sort of steady.
I love their reports, they've really got the information delivery nailed down.
One surprise though was how their expenses have also been heavily climbing over many years, especially since they aren't "care " heavy.
Hard not to like this result.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387845
Couldn't have said it better myself -
Summerset Chief Executive Scott Scoullar said 2021 had been an extraordinarily good year for Summerset with record demand and build rates, reflecting the focus that Summerset has had over the last couple of years in keeping our residents safe and well cared for throughout the prevalence of COVID-19.
I underline the extraordinarily:t_up:
Doing it the proper way
Comprehensive Income $588m up from $234m the year before - up 151% and they paid $38m in divies
Book Value up to $1,925m or 42% - that's some gain
NTA $8.36 / Book Value $8.62
To highlight the recent carnage in the retirement sector (share price wise)
A year ago SUM share price $12.67 and trading at 2.1 times NTA
SUM shareprice now $11.60 and trading at 1.3 times NTA
A drop from 2.1 times to 1.3 times is some re-rating in valuation multiples eh
Maybe setting a new benchmark for the sector -- no high premium to NTA and you only get a premium if you perform.