Dubious element? :) I just picked the same date 10 years ago lol...... sorry for not checkin' that it was a sunday. :D.
Printable View
I think the real secret of investing in AIR, is having some long-term method of when to buy and when to sell. Without that, the secret is avoid it. JMHO.
Its ironic how much money one would have made (saved)by just watching from the outside--Buy and hold...hmmm...lets see SP now is roughly the same as march 2014--high was Jan this year..im sure there are all sorts of conclusions we could draw--(lets just hope its not starting from around the high)
it would be interesting to compare AIR investment to buying a house and collecting rent(div)
Pretty serious stuff taking Samsung phones to another level http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11729805
Shame .... sounds like a really nice phone:
http://www.samsung.com/nz/galaxys7
for some reason they don't advertise that it might go up in flames and can't be taken on planes (*) - but this is probably for another thread.
(*) - actually - they just changed their webpage ... now they do.
If you bought an average house in Auckland now you'd pay $900K and get $500 a week for rent. Assuming 48 weeks per year was paid, they didn't do any major damage, didn't start a meth lab in your house and actually paid the rent your looking at gross rent $24,000, less estimated expenses, rates, $3,000, Insurance $1,000, Repairs and Maintenance $2,000 and provision for deep cycle repairs and maintenance (repaint inside and out and new carpets, lino e.t.c. every 10 years, ($20,000 = $2,000 per annum = Net return before tax of $16,000, (say $10,720 after tax at 33%) or about 1.78% gross assuming you managed the property yourself, collected the rent e.t.c.e.t.c. You'd probably be buying very close to the top of the cycle.
On the other hand $900,000 invested in AIR would likely buy you 513,257 shares at $1.75 plus brokerage which would return you $102,651 in fully imputed dividends. You may be buying close to the bottom of the cycle.
Pop Quiz - Which sum would be easier for a retired person to live on ? Which alternative involves an awful lot of hard work and drama dealing with tenants and which one involves just doing nothing ?
Disc; I would never advise investing all ones retirement funds in one stock, just posting for the sake of pointing out what an interestingly stark comparison these two alternatives represent...and people say owning AIR is crazy !...I know which investment I think is crazy. That said we have done very well indeed out of Auckland property in terms of capital gain but that matters little to us now in our mid 50's going forward from here and you'd be a brave person to say Auckland property will keep going up ad infinitum.
I just want life to be easy now so yield is where its at for me so 20 cps annual dividends is highly attractive. Putting more "retired" into the phrase semi-retired is where it's at for me.
Or the way down from the top..
Cyclical industry bottoms look like this:
1..Industry making large losses
2..Competitors shrink leaving the unprofitable areas of the industry
3..The Country (or Global) where the Industry operates is in a recession
4..Consumers curtailing their spending due to tough times
5..The industry shrinks to prevent oversupply/low or negative margins.
6..Some competitors go bankrupt
7..Many industries are vital to a Country's health...so government bail outs become common
8..probably more but that's all I can think of off the top of my head...you get my drift that the cycle is probably still closer to the top than the bottom
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11729283
Race To the bottom it seems
Good summary of a business cycle bottom. In terms of the SP, assuming the double bottoms Apr 2009 and Jun 2012 are a market cycle indicator, it's already ~62% of the way there. Might be time for a bounce off that fibonacci number eh, back test 50% and the May/June lows at 2.02?
Our man Christopher on his annual crusade preaching business sustainability
Talked a lot of other CEOs into getting their business to use more EV - all 1500 odd by 2019
Good on him - sustainable businesses are what we need - even if profits are impacted.
Must be hard to do these crusades at the same time that airlines are increasing emissions at a great rate these days
Never mind - keep at it Christopher, as long as Air makes a decent profit it will be OK
Obviously buying at the very bottom of the cycle would be ideal but hey most of us have to live in the real world so live with where we bought in at plus a bit of averaging down if we are so inclined. I'm middle of the road at a $2.29 average and a price which could be reached again within 6 months IMO, but regardless I'm happy to have 50% of our retirement funds invested in Air long term. As far as rentals go, not interested for reasons Roger has already pointed out in his last post plus Vaygors additions as well (Mind you I wouldn't like to have to reduce my holding currently for any reason obviously)
Good point Baa Baa.
Yes thanks Hoop for the salient reminder. I believe a lot of the negativity is built around an assumption we're going to have another GFC, (assuming we ever recovered properly from the first one, a decent debate all of itself), and people are quick to point to the cyclical low at the bottom of the last GFC. If we're comparing apples with pears, some people might like to consider how low for example high quality stocks like Ryman got at the bottom of the GFC, I remember them at $1.60, I am sure Vaygor1 with his in-depth knowledge of Ryman would probably remember them lower.
I personally don't think it's especially wise to assume we're going to have a GFC Mk2, granted its a possibility and theoretically possible that AIR's SP could halve from here but so would a lot of other stocks if that eventuated.
If we stick with official average forecasts of the 6 brokers following AIR we don't see any precipitous drop in earnings from FY17 and as Couta1 has noted their average forecast dividend is ~ 20 cps fully imputed for the foreseeable future and that's how company management see it too. The well foreshadowed capex holiday they have after FY19 underwrites their ability to pay at this dividend level well into the next decade assuming we don't have another GFC. Many people would qrgue with quite some merit in my view that the GFC was the most severe financial event since the great depression of 1929.
Food for thought, could the next cyclical low be quite significantly less severe than the last one ?
Further food for thought, is your capital at any more risk in AIR considering its SP has already been beaten up badly than stocks trading on lofty forward PE's ?
Couldn't agree more mate. Then there's the fantastic liquidity of stocks. We've been trying to quit a couple of low quality sections for over a year now, others we've held have performed extremely well but ones with more difficult build profile are much harder. You don't get that problem with shares do you although anyone with a large position in IQE, PPL or...(insert your favourite penny dreadful) might disagree !
Based on e.mail discussions I know you haven't deducted your 35 cent dividend from that so looked at another way your net average is ($2.29 - $0.35) = $1.94. Not so bad mate when you look at it like that. Why not make yourself feel a bit better and look at it the net of dividend way. Quite aside from that its what they can pay us for the next 10 years + that counts mate and is going to make our lives easier.
Yep is doing the texted book PR, talking three years out which is where the analysts and market should be using as the valuation basis however they are not.
Auckland property of any quality, if you purchased early in the cycle, i.e even 2012, which I did with my ChCH EQ money, was the most easy money I have ever made and liquid as to resell.
One asset is a a different point in its cycle to the other so why compare.
Annualised table of returns for 1,2,3,4,5,10 & 15 investment periods to the first trading day on or after 14-Oct in Year YYYY. Prices adjusted for splits and dividends.
Orange: <5% return
Green: >15% return
Blue: otherwise
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y26...20161016-1.png
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Fiction or facts, ROI illustrations over time, by necessity begin with choosing a year Zero, the starting point, which makes a big difference, though might depend on what outcome one wishes to illustrate.
Could be right ..but..one has to wonder what neighborhood your buying in there Roger...and wouldnt it be more fair to compare with what has already happened instead of what you think will happen?--I dont know many people who have LOST approx 40% on a house (whoops..better deduct some of that last dividend from your total).....but.... I think houses are to expensive these days as well and probably wouldnt do it...but that doesnt mean Id be running out and buying hundreds of thousands of AIR shares either--(Ive seen first hand how that has gone for some. So for them ,they've got one hell of a deficit to make up.....hmmm..maybe houses arent so bad..
NAH...We cant have another GFC they've fixed all those things that were wrong with the economy, eh??
and if your shares halve in value ..thats ok cause others have probably halved as well...does that make you feel better when someone says your a chump for being in the share market at all at that stage?
Are you the kind of investor who will bail if things start looking ominous?
(with all that food ,my thoughts are getting a bit upset and bloated)
Can't quite fathom what you saying ......but there are 17 (or even 86 if you take each combo) starting points on PT's table
And each starting date is the same each year - a time when previous year result been digested and ASM been held and most pretty up to speed to what the new year looks like ......seems reasonable
Interesting results - current green periods on way of turning blue and then orange methinks
Assuming PT numbers are correct
Does anyone know the date, even approximate, that AIR might report its interim result ? I can see that any dividend will be paid in March....but can't find anything about when the result was released to the market. Thanks in advance....RTM.
Thanks Couta....can't seem to find it on their flash investor site.
Probably not looking in the right place.
so, basically PT's chart shows that 2013-2016 were the strongest in history? Very interesting. Thanks for that.
RSI doesn't suggest AIR is oversold yet - assuming that I even know what I'm talking about
Santa - Peace and harmony within our extended family, AIR with a $2 handle and a new BMW 7 Series...but I'll settle for 2 out of 3 ain't bad, (with apoligies to Meatloaf)
Just like the old days eh? All the regulars having a warm discussion---It was all just a slight speed bump in the continuing saga:)
The new low is $1.715. Did anyone notice Fridays low then jumped 3c to $1.745 in the afternoon? Then on close they had a big order in at 1.745, so the sp would close on that price and no lower, then yesterday the same thing happened but 1c higher at 1.755. It is like someone is supporting sp from falling. At this rate we will be back to 1.80 by weeks end and 1.90 a couple of weeks later. Or is it my suspicious mind playing with me?:confused:
funny how the index goes down and AIR goes up. Hoping for market crash lol
May be selling some stuff that has topped, MEL, SKC, SUM and some of that going into AIR which has been over done.
How do ya think I feel? I gota live with me, and was banging my head against the wall last Friday after selling a block at $1.72c, then that big buyer came in half an hour later and pushed it back up to 1.745. So have been buying them back ever since:mellow: at the higher price. The positive is am now in the green by about $2000 with av price of $1.758c, and don't have to pay any tax next year,so far. Last time I did this was on 30/8/12 and sold for $1 then had to buy them back the next day for $1.04c knowing I'd made a mistake. Then they kept going to $3:). Don't know how far they will go this time.
maybe you lost a tiny bit by selling --but coming late in the game seems to have worked out well in general--If Im reading this correctly
We'll see if you have indeed called this right or made a mistake (I mean ,you've gotta be right some time eh?)--(predictions)
Remains to be seen if the rise will continue? So far the share price has not crossed the 50 day EMA, which is still trending downwards (or so it looks to me). Would be interested to hear a TA viewpoint on this.
Disc: Still got a way to go before I get back in the green! :eek2:
Good on you see weed ... unfortunately I've spent my budget so won't be topping up any time soon.
held at long term support :) which also happened to be 50% fib support around this number as well , that consolidation breakdown was a fake out at the lows just need it to get back to 1.95 and ill be able to square out my capital loss and pocket the div - cross fingers
Sorry team, been following not posting of late. Just curious I'm in similar to "Working Dad" and was considering a double down and wonder if the feeling of missing the boat in the early 170's is appropriate? Have a sizable position owing $1.865 so no point at present but still believe fair value is around $2.10.
For me fair value is not going to bring me to buy the additional shares although it means I am happy to hold what I have already. With the 35c divvy and todays pricing I'm sitting about even.
What I want to see is a more settled environment and share price stability which I am yet to see, considered it again in the low 1.70s but the volumes and sell off is still a factor and its nothing to do with the FA of AIR, sentiment is weighing on price as is the global concerns and perhaps plenty cashing up. I am happy to miss a 10c swing when I do double down to avoid risking further erosion in capitol investment, long term my thoughts are the same, AIR is a good place to park some money and grab some divvys over the years and wait for a strong rebound but I'm not thinking we are missing out on bagging a bargain just yet.
Steady as she goes. Up one cent daily is what we want, right up to $1.90 and beyond. Living under the new flight path in OTH and have a good view of the new AIR planes going over from my office window. Very graceful just gliding past and saying...buy me buy me, I am new and cheap to run and giving 11%+ yld. Don't regret not getting in early in the 1.70s and 1.80s when sp is back to $2+ with even more buyers being carroted in with the 10c div:t_up:.
I thought it was you topping up Couta :)
Roger beat me to the post!
Actaully if he bought on market we would be at $1.90........
Lets all hold hands, hold our breath, and jump in and buy 10,000 each and see if we can push sp up to 1.85:D. You go first Roger, and we will all follow:).
Sorry meant at market sell prices - will he move from $1.80 is the question.....
Something strange on the ANZ display for AIR
1 person ask with "0" quantity and an empty cell for the "Price" field.....?
Hope the place hasent been Back-Door-Hacked like that incident in the US a while ago.
Also on PEB and a few others
No if he is happy to buy at $1.80 I have a feeling he will get them. As previous posters have stated we need an 'event" to switch the downtrend, nothing has really happened to influence one way or the other. Although I feel we have recovered that 0.05C we lost when Cam Wallace sold his shares last week and peeved everybody off - what a powerful man or at least his actions were.
The bond issue was reduced in size from $75M to $50M and interest rate set at 4.25% (higher than expected)
I guess I dont need to interpret this for y'all.
I have had an absolute ton of e.mails about Z's corporate bond issue so I think they are also struggling to fill their issue. I think at these low level's there are very few merits to tying up one's money for 6 years or so in the very low 4% range to any corporation.
Flipping the coin over the other way, who wouldn't want to borrow for 6 years fixed at 4.25%...so why would you lend at this rate !
My GIBTA (Get In Before TA) and FA has been telling me to buy buy buy in the 1.70s and 1.80s. What do you think 1.90 by next weeks end? The 1.80 man is still supporting there, then $2 by Christmas - New Year ready for 10c div in 8 weeks from then:t_up:.
I'd like to think we hit the bottom at $1.71.5 recently. It has certainly been quite strong since then in what has otherwise been a very weak market.
Nice buying mate. Migration and tourism keeping steamrolling on at record levels https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-mig...ember-b-195770
Nice to see the SP back on the right side of the all important $1.78.
Waiting for the next round of valuations, see if they see it the way I see it.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
your last couple posts in AIR were full of negativity....and now u saw the sp flying n want a new valuation..wonder what is your motive...:eek2:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU160...gs-targets.htm
I have no idea what his motive is. But heres the thing King. Anyone who always has the same motivation ,or viewpoint ,has their head in the sand. And that goes for whether the SP is on its way up, or down--The smart money know when to change his/hers mind accordingly-so now its a matter of determining whether that ''up'' is going to continue,or if its a ''false start'' (which is whats its all about) as far as whether so and so is loading up..or making predictions with no additional info.....Who Cares?
That slippery poster..take you pick... has a lot to say for one who does not actually appear to invest..when i state a positive or a negative i back it up with an actual investment/divestment :-) Lets call it authentic vs ... comments, what a great weekend to be in NZ:-)
folks - make love, no war ... and no feline bashing - please!
I find it difficult to understand why any serious investors wouldn't like to get the good with the bad ... it is just so much easier to make wrong decisions if you look just into one corner.
This is obviously assuming that we are all prepared to question our judgement and are prepared to change our decisions if the context changes. People who just fall in love with a stock obviously don't want to see the other side, but than - falling in love with a stock is a quite bad investment strategy.
Discl: I like cats and I hold AIR (but not in love with it ...);
Please - lets keep this forum open for all views ... even if you don't like them - and if the only thing you have to say is something bad about another poster, than - why not just keep quiet?
Again, it's always nice to have your views get subjected to scrutiny. It would make this thread, and this Forum for that matter, a boring place if we all say the same thing about a particular stock.
The way I read the above quote:
The right side of $1.78 means to the right so higher than 1.78. The left side would mean under 1.78.
Then he/she says they waiting for valuations.
So no comment on whether they are bullish or bearish. Just statements of fact with no opinion.
Why ppl get their knickers in a twist I do not know.
Can any of the TA people out there tell me at what price AIR must reach for it to trigger a buy now?, If we say the low has been established now at $1.715c. Have noticed sp has gained 12c in the last 6 trading days. I am happy with 1c average gain every day, but if it wants to gain 2c every day, that's ok to. So to be on the safe side, If the TA buy kicks in at say $2.10c? and all the TA buyers start buying, then I am expecting to make a 30c to 40c gain including a 10c div by early next year? Correct me if I'm wrong.
Back testing over the last 5 years the most reliable EMA has been the 400 day.
At present it sits at $2.38 and is still falling,so until the sp moves up past it I think it would be prudent to hold one's self "at the ready."
"Fly Like a Beagle" Perhaps the stripey one was referring to the classic Beagle Terrier
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beagle_Terrier
The MA1000 looks pretty usefull
Currently 210.8
Bounced off it twice in June and July so seems to havesome influence.
Break through MA1000 and it could be all on again -- or maybe MA1000 might be real resistance
Prefer the good old Fibonacci levels though
http://www.mysoti.com/img/user/meric...ow_default.png
One revised valuation for AIR is lower than previous. More will probably follow.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
You guys are actually going on valuations now??? That controversial subject deserves a thread of its own (theres been some real doozies!---PEB comes to mind)
meanwhile its perfectly understanding that when the SP falls,like it has. theres going to be some frustration (every ones human)--But why the knotted knickers after a pretty good rise,is beyond me...(I would have thought celebrations)