Mr keating put in place a wonderful superannuation scheme which saved their bacon a few times.
The last good idea from that contitent..
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productivity commissions new report just highlights nz decline in living standards from near the top of OECD to near the bottom wow ... we must be doing something wrong obviously
Working longer hours but producing less: NZ's poor productivity
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...r-productivity
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...r-productivity
Little surprise here. NZ has had a regressive tax regime that has taxed salaries and income profit but has left capital gains including from real estate (owner occupied and investment) mostly untaxed. So with the ease of leveraging an investment in real estate, it is no surprise that NZers have prioritised investment in real estate rather than in capitalising business production.
His more famous quote was 'banana republic " sent the currency into a freefall
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...30-gx1pb1.html
ytd markets the best places at the moment are europe and the US to have ones loot , apart from a few stocks NZ continues to be the worst place in the world to have your loot
Worth a read punters. Time for a portfolio/strategy review?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...interest-rates
Maybe its time to freeze the NZ economy since its too good.
I don't see what high interest rates and a higher NZD delivers for us except less competitive exports.
All the import substitution enterprises will struggle too.
Like sleepyheads new 2.4k jobs in waikato.
We don't need another solid energy type situation
I'm mostly in bank shares currently.
I will continue to speak out on trends which are bad for NZ though.
Yes, I've been buying bank shares, they should do well in higher inflation times. My dad used to worry about stuff ... the world running out of oil (this was in the 1970s) etc etc... the things he worried about were essentially irrelevant to his own life and he died in his 60s not exactly poor and miserable, but the middleclass version of that.
I'm rather interested in health too.
No reason we can't be immortal eventually...
Maybe a quantum computer will solve the "golden equation" to prevent all biological disease and aging and even that is only one approach of many viable paths for achieving it. :)
Sadly the bank shares and ETFs on the NZX are affected by exchange rates too though.
There's no use for evolution when we have control over it today (and hopefully driven by ethics :) ).
The good news is that international fertility rates are declining across the board which allows for more people who want to live longer in good balance with the environment.
The movie idiocracy provides a good insight into how natural selection works in a modern society.
The intelligent individuals become overwhelmed by those who can breed more successfully.
If you're planning to still be around when things go downhill (or not), then even more reason to want to help shape and mould things I would think.
This doesn’t sound to good from some guy called Shares Doctor -
Current CAPE = 37 therefore negative returns each year on average for next 10 years also Q ratio mean reversion would give a 70-75% drop in SP 500 just to go to the mean. Nice fed induced 12 year bull market but the odds are looking stacked against it. Do I feel lucky?
Personally I have very little faith in what the reserve bank hints about what they might do in the future. Their only purpose is to influence the present, nothing more. I don't believe any rate rises will occur before US rates rise, that's where talk of it began.
not only the reserve bank but the bank economists. long range forecasting of rates needs to be taken with a grain of salt in this uncertain environment.
The Reserve Bank has hinted it may inject more stimulus into Australia's economy to super-charge its recovery from COVID-19, while maintaining interest rates near zero for now.
Dr Lowe also reiterated the RBA's stance that an interest rate hike is unlikely to happen "until 2024 at the earliest".
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-...ates/100180348
yea so us , aus many others not planning to raise rates for a few years yet and the RBNZ and bank economists in NZ say next year ? yea right
I wonder what's going to happen to our funny little NZ market. I'm just not feeling the nzx50 at the moment. I see the ASX200 has just hit all time highs this afternoon. The world wants what Australia has. What has NZ got to offer?
Haven't you left for australia yet with Mike?
Why are both of you still in the country and when can we expect the depature. :)
Which means higher living standards for the people.
Something everyone should aim for esp. when other countries are.
US data shows that the colour of the government has little effect on the share market but it does tend to perform better under Democrat Presidents (left of centre) with a split congress
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/are-...ck-market.html
100% is a good track record for further gains though which some suggested we were flatlining which isn't the case.
S&P 500 in '16: 2100
S&P 500 in '20: 4200
Which is also a doubling so we have seen similar gains to the United States.
Achieved without tax cuts or share repurchases. :)
We have a Revenue tax of 15% on most NZ business, excluding exporters, which has more of an impact than another form of income tax.
I welcome an expanded Fed mandate in the US though others have raised concerns.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/27/the-...e-nervous.html
They should spend money directly in my view and stop the political element getting in the way of maintaining their 2% inflation target.
The median voter isn't a great source of wisdom on these issues. Maybe the Federal reserve has better ideas than spending on defence, which makes up half of the discretionary budget.
It's already a digital dollar in a way - just have to remove cash.
The preserve of criminals and tax avoiding tradies ^^
The absence of a CGT in NZ is relevant as in effect it is a permanent tax cut. This helps to inflate share prices over time (just as it has helped even more to inflate NZ house prices.) So given this context, I think it makes the performance of the NZX50 gross index less remarkable compared to the performance of the American capital index over the same period.
NZ GST along with US state and local sales taxes, Employer Health and dental insurance payments and payroll tax are not applied as a result of the increased value of share investments when realised.
Smartshares NZ.
I would actually posit that comparing the NZX50 to the S&P500 index is also misleading insofar as the NZX50 is dominated by several large companies. A more valid comparison would be with the NZ portfolio index as followed by the FNZ TOP50 ETF which is "only" up by about 60% in the past five years.
What percentage of the NZX is owned overseas?
For our largest company (FPH):
https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/heal...lthcare-shares
15% is owned by JP morgan bank..
There would be a CGT payable in the united states.
The australian super funds are massive ($2T). No doubt they have large holdings in NZ firms and pay capital gains tax in australia.
Also many companies list on the ASX, and that portion of shares will be australian owned. These likely influence the NZX too.
jobs numbers not to hot to worry about money printing ending just yet
Fed’s Mester lauds jobs report but says it’s not enough to change policy
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/feds...ge-policy.html
Jobs report shows improvement, but not enough to get Fed talking about tapering
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/jobs...-tapering.html
mean while in NZ they are not printing enough money as they just cancelled the big road infrastructure build they announced in january 2020 ( another policy fail ) and replacing it with a very expensive walk and bike bridge lol
that help NZ productivity issues
G7 tax deal to set the stage for minimum tax rates. Its about time.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-this-weekend
Bank of Japan Governer readies to buy ETFs "boldly".
Kuroda said the bank's basic stance was to buy ETFs in huge amounts when market fluctuations are large, based on its findings that doing so was most effective in maximising the effects. There's absolutely no change to our stance of buying ETFs boldly when necessary. he added.
.https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...bs-2021-05-13/
Also the governer slams bitcoin:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/bitcoin-slumps-to-35-000-as-kuroda-adds-to-crypto-criticism
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...multinationals
The NZ Corporate Tax rate at 28% suggests that NZ Companies are being ripped off & overtaxed on the international standards
suggested of 15% ? ;)
All other countries have dividend taxes. only foreigners are being ripped off which is fine with me
I see that .. Are they scared that someone may wake up to the fact that some poor suckers in the
future are going to have to pay dearly to repay the whole lot of artificially created magic credit
mysteriously concocted overnight between Govt & it's captive - the RB (or Reserve Debt) Bank ? ;)
Whats your point then?
there's no need for anything over what's already in place given our good economic performance.
Reread the article, then what is being talked about should be obvious
Good performance or artifically concocted on the back of mysterious inflationary
intra RB-Govt borrowing of extreme levels ? ;)
What will further lock downs bring ?
The Local economy may seem not so bad against other Covid-19 afflicted,
it depends on what it is compared against & what the tints of the day are .. ;)
Company tax could be raised a bit. 29% to get that under the 30% virtue signal figure.
More imputation credits for kiwis so less tax. ;)
I saw the smilie but just to make things clear. Raising the company tax rate would generate more imputation credits sure. And withholding tax on dividends for shareholders would reduce to offset the increase in imputation credits. However, without a change in personal tax rates there would be no difference in the overall tax bill faced by shareholders.
SNOOPY
G7 agree to a global minimum company rate of 15% (Biden had originally wanted 21%). They also agree to plans to tax companies in the countries where they conduct business.
It had always seemed bizarre that multinationals could effectively choose a country, which had a low tax regime, in which to book their profits. Costs to governments from Covid spurred on the agreement.
G7 is just the 7 largest "developed" capitalist economies. However it is a start.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57368247
I found it hilarious on TVNZ last night - they used the example of Google, and stated they had approx $800m in revenue in NZ and paid I think $2.3m in tax - only 0.3%!! Taxing revenue now?
Then David Parker was on there saying if big companies paid more - then less tax to pay for individual taxpayers. Yeah right!!!!! Anyone waiting for a tax decrease based on this will be waiting until the temperature in hell goes sub-zero.
They are subject to a revenue tax but businesses can claim it all back since its tax deductible (gst).
Consumers still get slugged though.
NZ is one of the few countries which have imputation credits for shareholders.
NZ, Australia and Malta.
A very fair deal for shareholders.
PS - that 15% would be the minimum rate, it isn't the average or standard rate. Australia is 30% (or 27.5% for 'Base Rate Entities')
if australia drops there rate to 15% not many companies will be left on the NZX. only be as a secondary listing.
therefore NZ have no choice but to lower company tax if the g7 announcement becomes reality and countries start lowering rates
Large parts of the NZX are already owned overseas and it will simply increase.
JP Morgan owns 15% of fisher and paykel plus the additional 10% for blackrock, vangaurd.
NZ can do what it likes since we're a sovereign country.
There are more years than 'this year' I think.
Wrong link.
That's dead right & just which party introduced GST, replacing other duties levies etc
AND incidentally also making promises on Personal Income Tax being at what level within 20 years
of GST being introduced which they have also conveniently been oblivious on honouring up on ? ;)
Who is ripping off & slugging who off exactly in light of this ? ;)
Wherever did (if my memory is correct) recognition of corporate tax paid by way of credits attached to dividends paid elsewhere go ?
AUSTRALIA comes to mind - Franking credits still exist in Oz - next to useless to Kiwi stakeholders directly, other than
perhaps reducing Withholding tax extracted I imagine .. ;
Aussie Jobkeeper still being paid in some cases I believe.. 12 months vs 12 weeks for NZ's subsidy.
Job Vacancies surge past the pre-covid levels.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...BWONRHABRGKFY/
bitcoin approaching key support around 30k , might be a big woosh down if it doesnt hold
Is that a WOOOOOSH@#### or just a WOOoosh type of woosh?
It will be interesting
"Energy Cuckoo's lost & dreaming in the Woods" it seems:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...lloons-to-349m
'Never again': cost to taxpayers of Tui oilfield clean-up balloons to $349m
Quote:
The cost to taxpayers of decommissioning the Tui oil field off Taranaki has more than doubled to $394 million, Energy Minister Megan Woods has confirmed.
But Woods told a select committee on Thursday that she was determined the situation would not be repeated.
Quote:
But the Government was forced to take over the oil field last year and pick up the tab for the clean-up after production at the field ceased and Tamarind Taranaki collapsed into receivership.
Well who else left standing with a few pennies was there to pay Clean Up bill ? ;)
What taxes, duties, royalties, licence & permit costs were extracted by Govt over the life of the field ?
Obviously not small syphon-offs either that were extracted by Govt ;)
Quote:
The Government set aside $154m last year to pay for the work.
Quote:
But Woods said it had to set aside an additional $195m in this year’s Budget because the original cost estimate was based on a 2015 study by Tamarind that had proved to be inaccurate.
Well that's nice .. a major bit of buck passing and very convenient too - supposedly no-one from Woods' Energy-Less Department bothered to think to open their eyes and do a bit of forward lateral thinking on the real projected clean up costs forward .. ;)
Quote:
This is a situation we never want to be in again,” Woods told MPs.
Yeah right..
Quote:
“This is a situation which was created because of a gap in the legislation which we closed when we became the Government,” she said.
Aha
Quote:
The gap meant that the same level of scrutiny was not applied when ownership of an oilfield was transferred as was applied when an operator originally requested a permit to drill.
“We changed the law in 2018 to make sure we never got into that situation again,” Woods said.
That's nice, but really ? All the boys & girls up the back were probably nodding, but..
So what will a little more scrutiny do to change anything, if the encumbent operators / owners are headed down
the gurgler with no dough on a field in it's closing years and no-one fronts to tidy up ?
How many more of these fields are there, where time is going to be up, before Woods & her mates exit the stage ? ;)
Will they have to empty their purse on the Govt front desk on arriving first ? ;)
What happens if none do ?
What happens if none find it economic or have interest looking at end of life fields ? ;)
Where does the buck stop then ?
If Woods' Ministry of Energy-Less were able to do such a good job on this tidy up on the estimates of forward costings, will they do any better on others ?
Sorry .. forgot .. there will be no new fields , no new wells because no-one wants to deal with the current back the
front administration and many explorers are relinquishing their permits etc here hurriedly to depart fast, if they
haven't already aiming to pop up in more exploration friendly territories elsewhere globally ;)
Must be why NZ Energy Explorers are digging in over yonder & further away too .. ;)
Not too far a journey either -- the nearest friendlier territory just happens to be across the ditch - darlings ;)
The levels of Govt squawking on this one are as good as their various Phantom House Building schemes
to date which is yet another portfolio on just which Ministers desk again now ? - right ;)
Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html
all transitory inflation , rates barely moved , markets steady to up in the US ..... business as usual.
but at the local in nz im sure my food bill got quite a jump last week and of course my rates bill is going to jump this year and my petrol and utilities are well up this yr but dont worry its transitory my 1% cpi adjusted pay rise should cover it.
ECB Piles on Stimulus Even With Most Upbeat Risk View Since 2018
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde renewed a pledge to deliver faster bond buying even as officials acknowledged for the first time since 2018 that the euro-zone economy is no longer overshadowed by risks to its growth outlook.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
hence why europe one of the best places for your cash this year
....those Old Economy European companies really helping out like BP, Total, and BHP etc. Not that anyone uses anything that they produce anymore, like oil. We're all driving electric cars now you see and products travel around the world via Hyperloop.
Inequality in NZ too is booming! Inflation bites at the wage earners. The government tries to impose wage moderation while house prices have been skyrocketing. So moderation for wage earners while asset owners reep the rewards from government policy?
Those with equity in a house and other assets have been watching their values increase, so a feel good factor there. Those with assets (predominately real estate in NZ) are more likely to vote?
all part of the plan of course...inflation = stealth tax and as a bonus it rips the ladder up behind those who wish to rule over us
I don’t pretend to fully understand the causes of inflation but with the workforce across most developed countries now aging, arable farmland likely declining due to drought and a fossil fuel phase-out, women having mostly returned to the workforce surely future inflation is likely to be higher? Yes, you still have technology weighing on inflation, but now you have factors weighing against that.
In terms of Age demographics, Arable land and Women in workforce etc. it might seem to a casual observer that inflation would also rise now trends have stabilised or are reversing?
Double post.
fed meeting this week , im not expecting much change this meeting.
this site is very slow to load or post on frequently now so ill be only posting randomly on here from now on.
That's a shame bull I enjoy your posts but this site is painfull at times.
March quarter GDP +1.6% vs. RBNZ estimate -0.6%
Adrian must really be scratching his head. So concerning that such a fool is in charge of something that is arguably more powerful than what the PM can do.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/1108...-gdp-rise-will
I very much doubt even Sammy The Seal would have got it even near right.
Oil company makes good coin pulling it out of the ground, they set aside a certain amount of money per barrel extracted to cover the costs of decommissioning. They sell the field to another less credible company including the little piggy bank full of money for decommissioning. Less credible company siphon off all the money overseas, cries foul - there’s not enough oil anymore, we are going broke……. Off the go leaving the bill for tax payers.
Yep…… yep…… yep…… yep……
Yes all the "alternative" ideas seem to benefit overseas people more than people living here.
The drumbeats are getting louder...........................
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...dp-growth.html
"Latest GDP figures show the economy grew by 1.6% in the three months to March, beating forecasts of -0.6%.
The surprisingly strong data has prompted ANZ's team of economists to bring forward their rate hike predictions."
https://thebull.com.au/asx-has-bigge...in-four-weeks/
"Australian Market Report: Shares had their biggest fall in more than four weeks on the Australian market as
investors responded to the prospect of global interest rates moving higher."
https://www.reuters.com/business/wal...es-2021-06-17/
"Weakness in tech shares pulled Wall Street lower at the open on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled
it could start tapering its stimulus earlier than expected, piling pressure on a sector that is seen as vulnerable to higher interest rates."
https://apnews.com/article/inflation...4af689f13a5ef7
"The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it may act sooner than previously planned to start dialing back the
low-interest-rate policies that have helped fuel a swift rebound from the pandemic recession but have also coincided
with rising inflation."
Europe = a shade of red to end the week.
What I like about the NZX is it has a more of an ability to withstand higher interest rates in comparison to most other markets.
NZD falling more dramatically than US shares over the last two days. I guess this will help reduce the sting in USF.nzx USG.nzx, USV, USM and USS when the market opens next week. It's been painful at times holding these as the NZD has surged. Can't believe how well the NZD had been doing considering our vulnerable economy.
Hopefully the NZD will keep on falling so I can feel wealthier in NZD terms ;)
Roger Kerr makes sense:
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencie...nged-past-week
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencie...s-recent-weeks
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...evel-2-tonight
Covid-19 NZ: Wellington moving into alert level 2 tonight
Was the glass towers on the hill housing a filthy bunch of Politicians a place visited ? ;)
The US market keeps on trucking. I sold a little bit this morning when the market opened at 1.30am (VOO - Vanguard's 500 ETF and the oil ETF XLE) to give me cash to live off for the next couple of years. I'd been sailing a little close to the wind over the last six months and didn't have much cash on hand to do much of anything. So I'm putting the selling into the category of "raising cash to completely fill up my cash bucket" rather than the "getting the f*** out of dodge" category.
So I'm still staying at the party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7KM7dDRDUo
I do enjoy the WealthTrack channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN8IsvNLKcI