So, this is what we have from the "nervous nellies":
This is what Sandy Maier is reported to have said:Quote:
Originally Posted by Minimoke
... and, these are the facts:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandy Maier
1) As noted in the half year - the total maturities to the end of the 2011 retail deposit guarantee - was about $1billion
2) There were maturities to the 30th June of about $300million - these have been paid back with new debenture debt.
3) Sandy is now telling us that $280m due by 31 October has been rolled over.
Lets say that out of the $1billion - we have accounted for $580million. This leaves $420million maturing within the extended government guarantee period. Over 15 months, this is $28million per month.
Now, if the maturities were equally spread ... I'd say SCF has an easy job to find this level of capital inflow. However, we know that maturities are "bunched" - let us estimate this "wall of debt":
Sandy does not, directly, tell us the size of the "wall of debt" due late October.
If we assume that as SCF had 13,000 responses out of 20,000 and about two-thirds of those had agreed to redeposit this means that we can estimate that 2/3 x 13,000/20,000 x wall_of_debt = $280million
This means that the "wall of debt" can be estimated at no more than $650million - less the $280million already pledged, this implies it is no more than $370million. This is out of a total debt maturity of $420million to the end of 2011 - does seem a bit high, but we will run with it.
We don't know anything about new capital, we don't know anything about loan maturities except they did about $250m in 6 months on the impaired loans "with the rate of recovery accelerating" - lets say $250million more on total loan maturities, by October. This could include some sales of loans from the "good bank" - but there is no extreme pressure to sell at heavy discounts.
This means they need about $120million in terms of debenture issue from new sources.
This is about $40million per month.
Tight - but not impossible. They may need more bridging finance if the subscription rate drops away.
This does not account for any cash generated from the equity assets or the performing loans.
I note that the "bunching" of the maturities is the key problem - not equity - not even debenture subscription rates - just the "bunching".
Focus and good management, will see SCF survive. If you do the calculations you can see through the intellectual dishonestly on this thread.