Good to see that you are learning.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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Always learning PT...learnt a long time ago the market is an ever changing dynamic and its best to swim with the tide than against it :)
You'll find that the fruit fly scare was cleared up between the timeline of posts 1 and 2 that you reference and if it hadn't of been resolved satisfactorily the effects on SCL could have been potentially fairly serious. Always measuring risk carefully...another lesson learned early.
500,000 just went through at $2.75. Chinese buying more already ? P.S. make that another 300,000 and another 100,000 as well.
And on and on it goes with big trades...surely people can join the dots...for those that don't know, the Chinese can keep buying up to 19.9% without making a formal takeover offer, after that they must formalise it if they wish to buy more. Better to buy off impatient people at $2.75 than pay well north of $3 to those with some patience under a full takeover.
We are never to old to learn
Meanwhile I have been busy oiling the cogs and turning the handle on the calculating engine and the following numbers fell off:
A current (17-Mar-2016) value for SCL of $2.670;
And a one-year (17-03-2017) value of $2.830.
Pretty much in line with the analysts but I can not work out where I have gone wrong :(
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
You guys topping up at these prices?
I was holding already and bought a few more at today's price. The million dollar question is if we will just have a 20% foreign stakeholder which will improve access to the Asian markets or if things are gearing up for a full take over. Any thoughts on this people?
yeah, that is what Scales says (and wants?), but is that what the foreign stakeholder wants? The hunted and the hunter.
judging by the proportion of off-markets today, something's going on. one swallow does not make a summer, but I can't see a takeover imminent.
love the intrigue though.
What ever happens we remain "well positioned,"
Gents,
Lets assume for a minute the consensus broker value at $2.85 before the Chinese investment was fair and reasonable.
Now what is the net present value of all future gains that will be made from the significant extra distribution channel our new friends will bring to the table ? Surely given the size and scale of their business and distribution network this is at an absolute minimum of 15 cents per share...so shall we agree that conservatively as a baseline the target price is now $3.00 ?
Factor in the decent dividend yield of the share, (so we're being paid handsomely to wait) and since there are only two outcomes a 50 / 50 chance of a takeover in the short medium term and we're north of $3 considering the stock is most likely already in play.