WDHB being Waitemata, Waikato or Whanganui District Health Board. Assuming you mean Waitemata, signed up or included under Health Innovation Hub announcement Feb 10 2014 as far as I can see.
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PEB up 3.8% and XRO down 2.5% -- that's what I'm talkin' bout!
PEB how beats XRO over the last 1 month and 3 month periods, and is catching up on the 6 month.
This in from HotCopper CDY thread seeing as we are on the subject. This will blow your socks off.
The market maker is the strongest trader (sourced from the internet somewhere?)He is the one who takes the other side of a trade and makes a mostly riskless business with the spread, the difference between buy and sell price. Furthermore, he has state of the art equipment, which he watches like a hawk all day in a big room with others doing the same, hoping that many hawkish eyeballs are seeing more than single prey's ones. The market maker is known to be in a strong trading position, as he works for a big company with real money, which other traders fear.
With the capital behind him he is able to drive prices up and down, enticing euphoric investors into high prices and shaking out trembling ones with a loss at low prices. For example, the market maker likes to initiate breakouts. He is buying low within a price range that he even may have formed for that reason, bringing the price to the upper edge and selling higher into the following rush of buyers, who may falsely interpret this breakout as a signal. The same game can be played with first fuelling a trend to an exaggerated level and then bending it around and initiating a swing into the opposite direction.
Here is some more:
A market maker can use hidden orders to avoid disclosing his real intention and to hide large volumes.
A market maker can use large fake order sizes to intimidate traders to run in the opposite direction. This is referred to as NITBB (no intention to buy bid) and NITSO (no intention to sell offer). For example if a market maker wants to run the stock down he will create a virtual institutional size ask putting fear in the traders that the stock is going down. The market maker will then fill his buys at the lower prices. The reverse may also be done.
A market maker may display a real size to show that liquidity is there to attract big interest A market maker may use a fake order of a large size to hold the movement until he is done buying or selling his position.
A market maker can use his real identity or can hide behind an ECN (electronic communication network) depending on his intention. He can make an inside market on both sides and under different identities
Market makers may also trade back and forth among themselves, filling their own bids, creating a large decrease and spooking everyone who is uneducated into selling also.
The market maker (specialist) is granted various informational and trade execution advantages and has a lot of power. They can see everything. WHEN YOU ENTER A STOP LOSS ORDER THE MARKET MAKERS CAN SEE THEM! You may notice from time to time a stock hit a short term low and then move up again.
Market makers will do everything in their power to hit the stop losses to build up more shares for their account if they believe the stock will rise again. A stop loss order becomes a market order when it is triggered. If the volume of the bids are low your stop loss will trigger a much lower sale price and bring the stock down with it (referred to as slippage).
But I suppose you all knew that already. :)
Have a nice day
Trading halt??? Heh. Gona read this announcement!!!!
There was buy and sell for both .83 for at least a few minutes not executing.
Melanoma? Where did that come from!? Hah, fantastic.
85/56 not looking so strong now :D
EDIT: 86 sell restacked - it is resistance right? I ain't no TAer but I think that's the case?
Maybe a quick lift to 90 .....
This company keeps ticking the boxes one by one and I'm proud to be one of its long term shareholders:cool:
Was obtaining this patent unlikely?
But whatever, we will take the extra excitement it seems to have created.
Perhaps Mr Market now sees PEB may not be just a one trick pony?
When it becomes commercialised its worth lot’s as far as I’m concerned as a skin cancer patient, if it means through better prognosis that aggressive cancers can be better assessed then it’s less likely that the docs will take a ‘chop it off and ask biopsy questions later’ approach. You would be astonished at how easy they pull the scalpels out when in doubt, its scary stuff when you start losing bits and pieces.
The American Cancer Society estimates that at present, more than 120,000 new cases of melanoma in the US are diagnosed in a year. In 2014, an estimated 76,100 of these will be invasive melanomas, with about 43,890 in males and 32,210 in women.
Cetrainly a good indication that things are on track. Aside from the melanoma patent, the confirmation that the triage and prediction technology are nearing comercialisation is very positive. Also, it's not the first time in recent weeks that they have said they are looking at targeting other international markets. Obviously some talks going on. My guess would be something out of Singapore.
Clinical trials and regulatory approvals next, let’s say that takes 18 to 24 months. Should be all good and ready to phase into the market with all that cash the Cxbladder cash cow is intended to provide.
Cxbladder product suite this year into next, then Cxcolorectal than shall we call it Cxmelanoma, nice, just like a sausage machine.
Attachment 6218
When quality stocks like PEB with good fundamentals are so grossly undervalued all catalysts will lift the boat.
Agree though, patients add to the value proposition of products, make it more difficult for competitors to enter, and it's likely should a takeover be contemplated downstream that the patent suite will be priced.
2nd Sept 2014see my todays chart below
Not much resistance chartwise at 86..
A little more resistance at 91 (drawn on chart)
The main resistances are the 98 - 101 area..the 110 area ...and 120, the old scary cliff face that represented the last line of support before breaking into the vacuum a few months back.
Disc: hold ( IN were my buy points)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...EB04093014.gif
I mostly use TA for my investing nowadays...New Guy, they are my actual trading buy in and sell out points using simple basic TA..I did do a couple of dead cat bounce trading on the way down too (not shown) one was profitable the other a small loss (I was a bit stupid with this one)..but it proves a point that you can make money as well by going long (short term trades) on a steep falling share price..:)
How many balls do these gusy have in the air. Maybe I need to read more but didn't even realised this was on the horizon.
Maybe its the accountant (not the scientist) in me coming out but shouldn't they be focusing on getting some revenue at the moment?
Hoop, I think that 110 mark is next key level. Might be too strong a resistance level but if breached probably the lowest it will ever be (assuming success)
Sub 70 to 110 in a month or two will do me fine.
Just remember - the squiqqly line will always squiggle its way to where a grossly undervalued fundamentally good stock reflects real intrinsic value.
You agreeing with me now ????
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by stoploss http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...post-right.png
Maybe a quick lift to 90 .....
No no - wont stop there $1.10 looks a good place on the squigqly line thingie
Seriously, how likely are other big pharmaceutical companies going to be eyeing Pacific Edge's IP for a takeover?
I have no idea, so informed opinions (or not) would be much appreciated.
Melanoma??---OK, these guys have got my attention.
I look at things(especially in the US market)from a marketing point of view.
PEB is becoming hopefully more noticeable--If melanoma lifts the eyebrows-then more people or institutions are going to start saying ''who are these guys?''--then the bladder detection becomes more visible
The big guys (doctors with influence-institutions-etc.) they want to know a company and product is going to still be around in a few years before changing their habits----this is a sign that they are going to be around and are moving ahead---Are they getting attention?--
Well, time will tell...but it is getting more likely .---its looking like these guys have come to play(as they say in rugby)
It may not necessarily require a takeover to monetise the melanoma test as per this example, Pacific Edge is known to both Roche and Oryzon too coincidentally.
http://www.roche.com/research_and_de...2014-04-07.htm
There does seem to be a magic US$100M figure very often kicked about in the biotech sector, and it’s probably no coincidence that Pacific Edge have also adopted this as a revenue goal.
“In the diagnostics industry there is a threshold of around $100 million ($100M) in annual revenue. At that critical mass a company can generate more efficiencies in the lab because it is running more tests. Also, from a valuation perspective, companies that have $100M or more in revenue are more attractive to larger players as potential acquisition candidates. They do enough business to impact the profit and loss statement of the larger company.”
http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com...er-diagnostics
In 2011 Pacific Edge opted to establish their own commercialisation company, PEDusa, which takes them down a different path from that as just being an R&D company, IMO a better path for shareholders, a takeover could have occurred in 2011, now more likely to be a couple of years from now on this basis.
Winner do you have a DCF that you'd mind posting? Cheers
Let's see if the bosses sell down after the announcements this time :D
Disc holding
Go to San Fran for a week...now sitting in Hawaii...and I've missed all the action it seems. Or is it just starting to warm up? But I have to wonder whether you are still trying to surf against the building tide Snaps...or have you started to accumulate before it starts getting too hot?
Posted output under numerous discount and growth rates a few months ago. The value I highlighted was 107 with my preferred rates but the range was 80 to 400 odd under different scenarios.
Haven't updated since but as everything has been pushed out a year or so even if assumptions stayed the same the valuations would be lower .....say 90 cents
Mainly did it just get a feel for whether it ever worth 170 if successful ....or not much if a failure
Just playing the rises from sub 70 now. The squiggly lines are more valuable than any DCF valuations. At least the squiggly line shows whether punters are grumpy or sad. They happy now and that's good. PEB shareprice driven by sentiment and announcements.
Looking forward to this Edison report ....140/170 the word in the street is. That'll put a rocket under the shareprice.
What you reckon it worth
Found this on KP website, I never had any idea a test could be used in this manner. Imagine a cxbladder test mailed out every two years to a smoker or firemen.
http://kaiserpermanentecarestories.o...ore-it-spread/
Well I for one am actually pleased that it's moving closer toward what I actually paid for it.. losing around 50% of it's value in so many months teaches you some lessons.
It teaches you a lot of patience and not to listen to all the noise if you believe a given company can achieve what it says it can. I'm sitting on 5 companies showing between 30 and 45% paper losses currently with Peb being one of them but I believe each of the 5 will go positive and beyond given time.
Interesting piece from David Darling.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr.../morningreport
That clip from David explains that this has the potential to be more fruitful and in better time than I understood just from reading the announcement yesterday. I had assumed they'd have to go through a similar commercialisation process to that of CxBladder (and hence similar timeframes) to see revenue but it seems that these companion diagnostics can result in revenue relatively quickly (if a partnership is found). I do hope/presume they're going to be a little more proactive than hoping a partnership "comes along" though.
PEB one to follow today. Get in early boys. My two cents.
I dont agree with that,and Im surprised you said that snaps--After the sales announcement you sold quick which was in hindsight ,the right thing to do-I bailed not long after as well(took a 10% loss)
But then it started looking like the hype was going in the other direction and decided it was close enough to the SP before all this Hype started to give the management a chance to prove them selves(It was a gamble with better odds than before) Got in @65(ok I got lucky--Im not pretending to be a professional at picking bottoms)--but the point is,it has taken me less of a rise to break even and start getting into the black)
Who knows how they will do with sales,but the momentum does seem to have changed and they now have another bun in the fire which in time could bring in the dosh,and more importantly bring attention to the product they are selling right now.
The fact that it is looking more likely that management are out there doing stuff and not sitting on their hands makes me less concerned with short term sales as I was before.--the potential for sales is higher now IMO--Its a gamble plain and simple--but hopefully the odds are stacked a bit more in their favor.
Well I guess there is also the consideration of walking the fine line between investor and trader for tax purposes. An "investor" might hold while the price falls if the fundamentals haven't changed, while a "trader" would happily bail and not have to worry about getting in and out. This definitely crosses my mind.
Irrational exuberance is good - shareprice heads up fast eh
Saw somewhere that at the moment only 10% of US analysts are showing any sins of bearing bearish.
Punters want good stories. Hope PEB comes out with a few more over the next few weeks and then we have that Edison Report soon
Squiggly line looking good
Seems like only yesterday we were at 82 cents.:)
A $1 at the end of the day would be nice
Next week should be OK as well ....esp if David drops a few more juicy words like partner to the media and punters mull over it while having their Saturday lattes
Getting to the position one can't afford not to be in PEB .....just in case the big news breaks
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/190580.pdf
Huljich sell down - reason for the fall from $1.60-$1.70 range?
Are we likely to see a jump past FB's target price of $1.10 and back to $1.60 -$1.70 range? Given there doesn't appear to be any substantial shareholder selling down.
That Forsyth Barr’s target price of $1.10 was very low ball at the time being predicated on a conservative view that Pacific edge would be two years late in achieving their 5 year goal of 100M in revenues. Pacific Edge have since reaffirmed that the five year goal is achievable.
The two recent announcements also provide some support, I suspect FB may already have their calculators out and are sharpening their pencils for an upward revision.
I really think, honestly, that a few early random sales are not indicative of the company’s value, it’s the ground work going into the larger more lucrative prospective contracts that’s much more important as an indicator of progress.
Just 1 or 2 user programmes with larger insurers per annum prospectively rolling over is worth much much more than a handful of independent interested urologists purchasing a few tests now.
Although it would be interesting if the accumulation of tests for Medicare and associated retained earnings falls within this reporting period, I don’t think it will, more likely to be next, it’s getting close to 30 September now.
:)Suppose we can expect further delays on the Edison report now as they will probably have to do a remodel with the new information
From this morning’s radio interview with David Darling on the melanoma test commercialisation;
“The melanoma test could reach the market relatively soon”
“This particular opportunity lends itself nicely to a partnership with a company that might be developing a drug for melanoma, and in such a situation they look for new tools which we call campaign diagnostics and they use those companion diagnostics to sort patients going into the clinical studies to make sure they are getting those patients that will respond to the treatment.”
“So if they can use this test to segregate patients with recent tumours then put them into their clinical study they can determine how their new therapeutic will work and then subsequently if that therapeutic gets through to the market they’ll use the companion diagnostic on every patient that comes along with a melanoma to determine whether or not they will respond to the drug.”
Most new therapeutic developments by companies today require companion diagnostics so that’s a huge opportunity for the company, and so it may require only a limited amount of work by us in conjunction with a partner to bring about quite a significant commercial windfall”
Well, ....., and could that possible partner even be Roche ?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0FJ0HN20140714
Wih all these exciting developments - sales momentum building, new insurers, another patent, partnership with Roche on the cards - 2 bucks by Xmas on the cards
And don't forget the Edison Report soon
It's all go .....the squiggly line going to look good.
Can I throw away my Rakon chart now. ;)
No because Rakon had little bursts of enthusiasm like this well along the way. Remember the common thing is investor / traders behaviour
We may look back in 6 months time and still say ......PEB price behaving just like Rakons did. Price does not equal value, its just a measurement of traders sentiment at any point in time.
Perfect time to post that chart of investor sentiment on the graph if anybody has a copy. Where are we at now?
Strrrrrike ...... You took the bait Winner. ;)
This is getting a bit ridiculous, probably going to sell what I bought sub 70's now. Seems to me traders be trading, SP is up on hopes and dreams again! I suspect it might come crashing down when the next sales report is released... good sell oppourtunity now for us nervous nellies (or those of us who need the cash and whose eyes are wide at the current price!). I suspect there will be good oppourtunity again to pick up more after the next sales report :-)
Are people waiting for the Edison Valuation to come out before this? Might cause another blip upwards if they say its undervalued (which means they bought more than they should @1.20+ and hope it gets back up there so they can sell without much losses!).
Would rather reinvest in a company that's not quite as risky in the current atmosphere. ATM have already gone past 100m in sales and are looking good for the next few years. Spare change might be invested on PEB dips as a short term play until real sales traction is gained.
Sounds like PEB is already in talks with potential partners.
From what I understand, the pharmaceutical company carrying out the clinical trials will have to have their procedure including that of PEB's go through an ethics committee..
My question is does this test itself have to go through a clinical trial test?
Yes, one would expect so, Pacific Edge will need to achieve regulatory approvals also to go fully commercial.
In the context of working with a partner, it may be that they sequence their respective trials and work toward commercialisation in parallel, over say at a guess, a 24 month duration.
Though, in the example I posted yesterday, Oryzon were provided with $21 million from Roche up front when the partnership was formed, plus an agreement for potential development, commercial and sales milestone payments that could exceed $500 million, together with tiered royalties on sales which range up to mid-double digits.
http://www.roche.com/research_and_de...2014-04-07.htm
All these sort of developments will have different values, however it does seem likely that a similar type of agreement may be reached between Pacific Edge and any prospective partner.
The commercial windfall comment this morning from David Darling was interesting in this context.
Traders be trading. Large resistance at 96, I'm gonna look for another dip. Will likely need more good news to keep up the rise for now.
If it cruses along at this level for a while till the next development thats fine --no need for greed--a bit of ''steady as she goes'' is not a bad thing.
Shall we have some fun and guess where the SP will end on today? and what it will be on open Monday?
Time to see some action - nearing close of market.
To be honest, I'm looking for some opportunistic buying - the nervous nellies who will fund my next AMG.
a snippet from an NBR article just posted behind the paywall.Quote:
Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge [NZX: PEB] is probably being closely watched by bigger US medical companies waiting for a ripe opportunity to acquire, its chief executive David Darling believes.
I don't think it will happen before todays close though.......
and waiting for snapiti to call it rhetoric
Cxbladderdetect is now being sold in the US, New Zealand, Australia, and soon in Spain. The second product in the programme, Cxbladdertriage, is scheduled for commercial release in New Zealand by the end of this year.
(© Copyright Protected - The National Business Review)
Without going behind the NBR paywall, the headline on their website says it pretty well:
Pacific Edge will be 'juicy nugget' for purchase: David Darling.
That being so, it really doesn't need a lot more proof of immediate marketing achievement by the Dunedin crew to keep the SP going up.
Popcorn time!
Yawn. Prob gets offers every other day. (ducks)
What is actually behind the paywall? In what context was this statement made? We now believe everything in the NBR?
Regardless of whether it's true or not, is that not very unprofessional to drop it like that? Almost another tens of thousands of tests moment.
Two good press releases followed by a favorable statement.... Familiar pattern? :D
Well certainly when asked at the AGM, his response was that the company should have a few more runs on board first, but if a takeover was proposed shareholders would be informed. Could happen at anytime of course, but it was way more likely in 2011 and will be more likely again from 2017, less likely in between.