LOL...Hmmm https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...26pid%3DImgRaw Not sure that's a good mix.
I've still just got a very modest stake. Bought a few more this week, not many. Been buying more WHS, Tuners and KPG this week too.
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LOL...Hmmm https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...26pid%3DImgRaw Not sure that's a good mix.
I've still just got a very modest stake. Bought a few more this week, not many. Been buying more WHS, Tuners and KPG this week too.
This chart shows how the market perceives Oceania v how they it perceives Summerset (relative market sentiment in other words)
Market was full of hope when Oceania listed but ever since that hope has steadily declined .....and even talk of inflection points haven't helped.
While that statement is true Winner, its more of a graph about how successful the " market perception " is of SUM.
SUM has gone from semi out of favour pre-covid with too many unsold units on its hands to the market darling because it had so many houses on its hands. It's weakness became its strength.
Just for fun , it would be interesting to see your graph of RYM vs SUM.
This is really a story about how fabulously successful the SUM "share price" has been which shouldn't be confused with its more recent "profitability".
Those comparison charts (SP price performance relativity, not including dividends) can be a bit confusing, as people know it depends a lot on when (the date) one starts the comparison.
RYM vs SUM vs ARV vs OCA comparison since 2013 shows SUM smashing the others.
Let's zoom in to the Covid low, see how much is changed. Gosh, SUM and OCA smashing the others.
Useless really aren't they, SP comparison charts. Need to look at the whole picture, capital plus returns, and argue about when to start the comparison.
Yeah....I was just comparing the 4 since OCA listed and the charts I looked at didn't include dividends so if you included them OCA has probably slightly outperformed the NZX50 since it listed, (which I think is a credible result considering they have been in the early stages of a business transformation program) and well and truly outperformed the benchmark (RYM) and I believe would have still just have outperformed ARV.
SUM has been the standout performer over the years no matter which way you slice and dice it ! Food for thought for the future. Is it a coincidence that their business model has the highest level of independent living units compared to the others and they have performed the best and with ongoing high increases in the cost of providing care does this suggest they will continue to outperform their peers going forward ? Perhaps the higher churn rate of OCA's business model, (once their business transformation program is complete) will even things out ?
Hmmm
Duration of that chart OCA share price up 13% pa and SUM up 26% pa
In same period OCA Book Value up about 14% pa and SUM up about 26% pa
Is that spooky
Says that neither has been re-rated up or down - both on same multiple as 4 years ago
So SUM have not really been rewarded (relative to OCA) over the last four years for their out performance (financially)
One could take the view that even 4 years ago both 'deserved' the multiple they were on back then and performance since then has maintained those multiples
Sort of says that multiples relative to another mean something - and says that just because one trades at a higher multiple than the other you cannot say the other should be on that multiple as well (or the market average)
Maybe the market does think rationally (and weighs things up appropriately)
I think the fact that Sum has had the highest development of units/year in proportion to the amount of current units explains the majority of their outperformance. This may have been risky but obviously paid off when house prices increase 20% p.a.
I found this interesting in the Forbar analysis about Arv...
“If successful a focus on greenfield is likely to be rewarded by the market in the form of
higher multiples, in-line with its larger peers Summerset (SUM) and Ryman (RYM)”
I’m not sure if others noticed or I misunderstood Brent when he said they were “pivoting” I think he meant towards more green fields acquisitions and developments?
Reading the analysis above maybe if that were to happen eventually there would be expansion of the PE multiple.