Wow ogg, how uncanny a minute after you posted.....
5,200,000 16.5 10.45am
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Hey, look...I know you are hurting mate. Your whole strategy is to buy shares on the basis that someone else will buy them off you at a higher price 'soon'. The radio silence must be absolutely doing your head in. I forgive you for lashing out, don't worry.
I said that Sky would not list any of their properties? I have no recollection of this. Hopefully you can find a link to my original post to refresh my memory.
Now, to be fair...you have been wrong on every single thing you have speculated on for the last couple of years. I know you have taken the Investor Day announcement of "unsolicited approaches" as vindication...but there is absolutely no evidence that Comcast (or anyone else for that matter) has approached Sky with a takeover bid.
So perhaps a little "guesswork" from others isn't such a bad idea.
I should also point out that I hope I am wrong about this. If The Board can pull together a deal that adds value to shareholders, of course I would be open to it.
But as each day passes from this point on, I gotta say - it seems less likely that a deal is happening.
Re: the property sale. I emailed Colliers on Friday 16 July asking for an update. The contact emailed me back soon after and said he would "come back to me with an update shortly". I haven't heard anything since.
Emailed him this morning again as a follow up and...still nothing.
So my 'guess' is that this also does not bode well for Sky converting unneeded property into much-needed cash. I can only assume that any indicative offers were below what The Board expected.
As a business owner, it is good to know that The Board aren't just jumping for 'any old deal' just for the sake of it. They have a clear idea of what Sky and its assets are worth, and they are sticking to that (so it seems).
Hey, look...I know you are hurting mate. Your whole strategy is to buy shares on the basis that someone else will buy them off you at a higher price 'soon'. The radio silence must be absolutely doing your head in. I forgive you for lashing out, don't worry.
I said that Sky would not list any of their properties? I have no recollection of this. Hopefully you can find a link to my original post to refresh my memory.
Now, to be fair...you have been wrong on every single thing you have speculated on for the last couple of years. I know you have taken the Investor Day announcement of "unsolicited approaches" as vindication...but there is absolutely no evidence that Comcast (or anyone else for that matter) has approached Sky with a takeover bid.
So perhaps a little "guesswork" from others isn't such a bad idea.
I should also point out that I hope I am wrong about this. If The Board can pull together a deal that adds value to shareholders, of course I would be open to it.
But as each day passes from this point on, I gotta say - it seems less likely that a deal is happening.
Re: the property sale. I emailed Colliers on Friday 16 July asking for an update. The contact emailed me back soon after and said he would "come back to me with an update shortly". I haven't heard anything since.
Emailed him this morning again as a follow up and...still nothing.
So my 'guess' is that this also does not bode well for Sky converting unneeded property into much-needed cash. I can only assume that any indicative offers were below what The Board expected.
As a business owner, it is good to know that The Board aren't just jumping for 'any old deal' just for the sake of it. They have a clear idea of what Sky and its assets are worth, and they are sticking to that (so it seems).
As it turns out, I did hear back from Colliers a couple of hours after I made that post.
The contact said he had been advised that no decision has been made at this stage. And unfortunately he is unable to "shed any more light on it".
Doesn't exactly scream out that The Board have been inundated with exceptional offers, does it?
Didnt you just post this?
https://i.imgur.com/w30QP0e.jpg
I seriously doubt Comcast has any interest in SNT. They aren't interested in small fries at the arse end of the world, I don't think.
Discovery are probably interested in some kind of deeper partnership with Sky. We see evidence of that with the recent deals we have done (Olympics etc).
Sounds like private equity have also made some initial enquiries - but I bet their offers would have been so cheeky that The Board ruled them out pretty early on.
If The Board are still considering opportunities...I think it is most likely a toss up between Discovery and Vocus.
This is pure guesswork for its entertainment value. Hopefully we will know one way or the other by the time the Annual Results are released.
I’m finally out completely, takeover is dead sorry master EGG
If there was a serious negotiation going on the SP would be showing signs of it, take over is dead, dividends are dead and the dream is over. Onto stocks which actually increase revenue, profit and dividends year after year :).
Good luck though, hopefully my selling is the catalyst to good fortunes for you.
Perhaps I’m not the only one running out of patience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Black Crane look for an exist shortly and book a small profit. They mentioned during the recent presentation that would hold managements ‘feet to the fire’ regarding spending excess free cash flow on fruitless growth initiatives and not return any of it to shareholders which is my number 1 reason for selling.
This business is undervalued, the board simply needs to initiate a buy back and reward patient shareholders.
Dividends is the last thing they will do regardless of any current negotiations.
Their whole strategy is around growth. You only start paying dividends with excess cash if there are no better used or cash to increase shareholder wealth by making the business more valuable.
They once alluded to the possibility of dividends in FY22, but after the ID I don’t think that is going to happen for a while yet.
They could use the excess cash + debt to try and make an acquisition of their own if the right opportunity arises.
has any thought gone into a management buyout,with an undervalued company and cash on hand it would be a more attractive prospect than private equity.
Ergo someone MUST have made a takeover pitch for sky?
Perhaps private equity put in a cheeky offer and got turned down right away.
But for the serious offers/negotiations that are worth consideration, I get the feeling that it is more of the ‘merger’ variety. Deepening of existing partnerships.
I accept that I could be wrong about that.
But haven't you been saying this for two years now?
The time is always 'NOW' and this time is always 'different' to your previous prophecies.
The Time Has Come, The Oggrus said
To talk of many things
Of shoes and ships and set top box
Of cabbages and Kings
And why the sea of streaming is boiling hot
And whether Sky has Wings.
Rugby league: New Zealand and Australian teams pull out of 2021 Rugby League World Cup
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/new...ectid=12459716
Didn’t Spark win the rights to this recently? Might look less appealing without NZ and Aus
OGG if you do sell out can you please post it on here at least 5 minutes before the market close. Reason being the day after there is bound to be a takeover and I want to get long in advance.
Cheers & Thanks
S/L
but my good friend OGG .. for all the time you spent in the kitchen pondering all things SKY & looking up into
the clouds for guidance .. surely you must have had thoughts of things better than Zero & BankruPtcy ? ;)
Some may have thought you hinted earlier that this one could be a five or ten bagger .. ;)
going to start notching the days on a belt.
It just further highlights to me why Vocus would want Sky, given the low valuation Sky currently has (and opportunity for a bargain).
If Vocus hooked up with Sky, they would more than triple their operating cashflow to $220M+ (and that is before they realise any synergies).
It seems like the expectation is that telcos get a EBITDA multiple of ~9. I think that is ambitious for 2Degrees and Vocus, but let's just go with that as this is roughly the Spark valuation. And the investment bankers seem to think Vocus and 2Degrees could get near it.
So Vocus-Sky would have Day1 EBITDA of ~$220M. Even if they get a lower multiple of 6 to start with (given most of the revenue comes from Sky, and their industry is still changing rapidly...) that would still be a market cap of $1.32B. a multiple of 7 would be $1.54B. This is before synergies are realised and growth (and the combined entity would be much better placed for growth through superior bundles than as standalone entities).
Well, if Vocus is worth $700M, and even if they pony up $500M for Sky (70% premium to the SP today)...they would make a gain overnight of $100M-$400M most likely. More if the market is optimistic about the Union. And then much more over the next few years as they grow rapidly.
It totally makes sense.
I would be shocked if Vocus was not part of the mix trying to do a deal with Sky.
If I was Vocus, and The Board would not play ball with a merger...I would go hostile. The potential gains over time are so enormous, I don't think they can let this deal go.
Let's see what happens.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann...-date.6178457/
FY results announced 25 August.
Quick everyone sign up to all SKY products to help with the "negotiations"
I'm a bit miffed at Sky's approach to new customers (could be a sign like management that they just dont care) - Pre broadband I tried to get the Sky Satellite reconnected at my property. Tech came around and asked a few questions and then said I would need an electrician to run all cables etc as I did not want cables running all over the place. I have a TV mounted above a fireplace.
Anyway The only reason I had been looking to get Sky was to gain access to Broadband as initially you had to be a customer.
The reason I am annoyed is I have not once been followed up with since having the Tech person around. I still do not have SKY hooked up and did actually want to get it sorted. As the customer I am not sure why I have to chase/ follow up on them. If they want my money chase me I am not in a rush to flush my money. Any have since decided I can live with out the connection as I have SKY Go via a "friend" which I now is not what they want but if this was a standalone product/ or merged with Neon then I would even need to use a friends or better yet if SKY had chased me I would have been paying the higher fees and also a broadband customer.
The soon this so called Merger/ Buyout happens the better. As this one needs a massive shake up. I am only just here with you other holders and do see value in this company but...... tired so tired.
Full year result better be bloody fantastic.
bledislow & Rugby Championship schedule in the balance somewhat with travel bubble closing for 8 weeks.
With first game on Aug 7th - NSW located players will have to fly by tomorrow to have any chance of completing 14 days MIQ in time for Aug 7 game. Players in all other Aussie states can highly likely travel to NZ quarrantine free for the next 7 days (if they are classified as "economically significant" which they will be), before MIQ becomes mandatory.
I would bet there is some shuffling of games so all NZ based games with AUS/SA/ARG can be played here in sequence over 4-5 weeks, before the whole comp maybe move to Australia for the 2nd Half.
thanks goodness the olympics are on to cover sports fans for a few weeks, would probably be safe to move that Aug 7th game out a week or two if needed.
For sure - definitely won't work to go to Perth and back. Seems highly likely play 2 here in NZ, and do a third in OZ at end of season (hopefully after bubble back open).
good news is that all the wallabies have been in a bubble in Queensland, so likely will all be able to travel over this week without MIQ.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...-travel-bubble
Thinking more about the property sale. Highly unlikely that Sky have not been presented with an offer from a developer or someone else that is compelling enough to accept. They don't need the space, and the land alone will have a certain amount of value that The Market will pay.
When, after all this time, the contact at Colliers said "no decision has been made yet" - that does seem to me that the sale has been put on pause while Jarden work with the various 'interested parties' to see if a Sky deal can be done. Otherwise, if no deal was going to be made for the property anymore I think they would have to tell us - and Colliers wouldn't be still waiting in the wings for a decision to be made.
From here, we know a few things to be true...
- Sky cannot continue in its current form. Well, technically the business can continue as a going concern and stay FCF positive for the foreseeable future, however the problem for shareholders is that the market does not rate business that simply rent content for distribution anymore. Despite Sky's continued strong underlying financial performance, the market prices the business each year as though it will be out of business in 5 years time. Even when Sky win key content deals like Discovery, Viacom, NBCUniversal, rugby, NRL, netball, cricket etc...the market shrugs and says "yeah ok, but what about in 5 years time? You probably won't be able to renew...or if you do the cost will be exorbitant..." And therefore an excessively low EBITDA multiple is given for the business. It isn't fair, and has certainly caused me a lot of consternation over the years - but it is what it is. If Sky continues as they are, no doubt they will eventually do buybacks and divvys...this will return some value to shareholders, but even though these moves will probably give somewhat of a 'bump' to quoted value, it will always be muted by the overall pessimism of how the market views Sky's current business model.
- In a connected, digitised world you must either earn off the IP or the connectivity. Shareholders like Ogg prefer the IP route (takeover by someone like Comcast, Discovery Viacom). Shareholders like me see more value in earning from connectivity (merging with Vocus, or even perhaps 2Degrees). Neither approach is right or wrong I don't think - both would increase value for Sky shareholders, it's just a matter of how much value.
I think Discovery is interested in some kind of a deal, but not Comcast or any of the other big content producers (though I stand to be corrected). It makes sense for Discovery because they just bought TV3 and are in this market...I don't really see the benefit to Comcast etc since they have no existing presence and NZ is a small market. If Discovery are in talks with Sky and Jarden, I would be surprised if it was for a takeover. I could see them doing some kind of a partnership or JV, but not sure that they need to spend half a billion dollars to acquire Sky wholly to achieve their objectives. Let's see.
A much better outcome long-term imo is for Sky to fully embrace telco. 2 Degrees may or may not be in the mix, but I would think Vocus should be the preferred option. We already get internet through them so the relationship is warm. And, depending on how a deal is constructed, I think Sky shareholders could end up doing very well.
Let's say Sky was valued at $500M (70% premium but still less than 3xEBITDA. Fair to current shareholders given the sustained low SP but also represents a reasonable valuation for Vocus). And let's just say Vocus are valued at $700M (the higher end of the valuations we have seen in the media).
If the deal was based on a shares-only settlement (no cash component) then you end up with a new entity that has ~4.36B shares outstanding listed on the NZX and ASX. Existing Sky shareholders own ~40% of the new business, and Vocus NZ owners hold the remaining ~60%.
In theory, the new business should be 'worth' $1.2B ($500M Sky + $700M Vocus NZ). However, the new entity will produce EBITDA of $200M+ next year (just on current earnings, not taking into account synergies, cost savings and future growth).
The market is highly likely going to see this move as a positive, with large growth prospects for the new Sky-Vocus entity in broadband and mobile given the superior bundles that can be offered.
Even if to start with, the market initially put a valuation based on 7xEBITDA, that would be a market cap of $1.4B. That equates to a $120M extra gain to Vocus NZ owners right away. It would also be a SP of 32.5c/share - which would be a tremendous outcome for long suffering Sky shareholders.
I actually think Mr Market could be much more enthusiastic than that. If he was, and a 9-10xEBITDA was achieved (based on material growth assumptions) then Sky would be valued at as much as $2B in the near term (with the potential to go much higher over time as earnings increase significantly from broadband and mobile).
A $2B valuation would be an extra gain of $480M to the Vocus NZ owners. It would also be a SP of 46c/share which is damn near 3 times where the SP is atm).
If the SP initially settled anywhere between, say, $1.5B - $2B it would be a fantastic outcome for all parties involved. I think this is based on reasonable assumptions.
No doubt there are risks, and it is also uncertain how the incumbents would respond to a Sky-Vocus threat...it certainly won't all be sunshine and lollipops for the new entity. However I still maintain that this is most likely the best avenue for Sky shareholders and Vocus moving forward.
Whether I am right or wrong about the end state for Sky, one thing I know for sure is we cannot remain as just a content rental business. The market places very little value on these businesses now (something I have had to learn the hard way) and Sky needs to embrace a new business model with both hands now (be that the IP or connectivity route).
Despair
.. insert suitable GIF
Well, even the banks across the ditch are getting into broadband.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...U7Q2C23D2VWJY/
If the banks of all things see value in broadband (and are actually buying large stakes in the businesses) I think Sky should definitely go beyond a wholesale broadband deal and become a fully fledged telco.
With a little luck, this is the recommendation from Jarden.
I think the reason for the massive slump in Sky value is simply due to the fact they are no longer a monopoly.
In the past there was never any serious threat of sky not getting the NZR rights (the big kahuna), and also that there was no other pay tv operator in NZ to bid for the rest of the premium content in the market (because no one has scale and it was too expensive to build out without an existing user base. Now there is a viable cheap alternative to proprietary infrastructure (OTT streaming), and sky is no longer a monopoly, and is competing with companies with vastly more financial resources and scale
Even when sky is successful in being able to retain content rights (when content providers choose to not provide them directly themselves that is), it has to spend a lot more than previously to do so (just look at the last NZR renewal). The odds of Sky retaining the NZR rights at the next renewal I think is fair to say are less than 50%, and once again the price expectations will be for significantly higher costs.
Also, Vocus doesn't have a mobile network - they just resell the spark mobile network access. They don't have the billons in cash needed to build one from scratch and obtain rights to use any of the needed frequencies. I don't see what value Sky would be to Vocus shareholders - If Vocus want to get into owning content, it would be much cheaper and more profitable to simply bid for NZR rights at the next renewal. But it makes much more sense for Vocus to look to merge with 2 degrees than Sky IMO.
Sky success will never be explosive, they are like the video rental shop in the old days. They are tired, and need to get into the 23 century. They are just moving into a market, that has beat them to it and seems to be getting crowded already. Having said that, they can still be a viable company, even though it may be slow and steady. They need a model that will see them into the years ahead. Why would you sign up to Sky fibre, when there are already plenty of successful operators out there. I don't know, but then again I am not getting paid the big bucks that the staff are. I say earn your money, and do something fabulous, instead of just turn up at work.
I think the better option is for sky to split into two:
Company A: Sky Infra - Owns the satellite customer base and assets, resells content supplied by company B (sky digital), just like Vodafone & spark resell sky content. Also includes new broadband effort, can also approach other content providers about reselling their content on its platform.
Company B: Sky Digital - Owns the premium content rights sky has (both sport and "non-sport"), produces content and also owns the Streaming infrastructure & customers using Sky Sport Now, Rugbypass and NEON.
=====
Company A is a cash cow that can pay large dividends for years, but with no growth ahead of it, and isn't attractive to anyone as a takeover target. Company B has the assets any potential buyer wants and is a much cleaner potential sale.
I believe this would provide the best result for shareholders - a cash cow probably valued more than half of the current market cap easily, and an easy sale of the valuable assets for probably close to current market cap. The issue is that no management team want to be left in charge of a no growth cash cow and see there most valuable assets (content rights) and growth products (streaming) get sold off.
I agree with you...
Pie in the SKY. Just playing silly buggers with how many entities form SNT does not alter the fact that the existing business (content rental and distribution) is not valued highly by the market.
Telcos, on the other hand, are valued very highly (even though broadband is considered low margin).
Sky clearly see that offering telco services is the way forward (hence Sky Broadband). I am simply proposing that they become much more aggressive than that.
A content aggregator / reseller getting into the telco space makes sense. I touched on this about a year ago, but one of the largest costs in a streaming business is connectivity / bandwidth / delivery (i.e. CDN costs) being the cost of getting the content from your studio to the end consumer. Making money from streaming is hard. If the CDN cost can be eliminated by Sky partnering with a telco who has cables in the ground and connections to other ISPs, then that definitely helps the business model / business case.
Reseller/wholesale is fine. If they merge with Vocus they will be doing just that - using Spark's mobile network.
There could be opportunities over time to invest into an existing mobile network. Inject money into the 2Degrees network (for example) in exchange for a % of equity in the network. You could cut Spark out that way.
Loads of possibilities.
Who knows really, certainly not me. All I know is that, overall, I think it is a good idea for Sky to become a telco. There are established players in the network that a deal can be done with (owners of both 2D and Vocus want to sell the NZ assets, that creates opportunity at this junction for Sky TV).
I've topped up recently. As long as some dividends are on the way I'm happy to hold this long term, especially in this ultra low TD rate climate. :cool:
So many channels to watch Olympics on .... really cool
Saves the pain endured watching the Toni, Scotty et al self adulation show on TV1
Thanks SKY
On Sky Sports Now it's a bit of a nightmare. The listings are often incorrect. And a couple of channels don't show the listings at all so you have to switch to those channels to see what's on. I often switch to the TV1 stream as the quality is better and at least they tell me from time to time when the Kiwis are next on.
Ha yeah thanks I am aware but the picture quality from TV1 Freeview is much better compared to SSN although I have fibre and the TV is plugged straight into the router. This is a major bugbear for me compared to Spark Sports where the picture quality is superb. I'm such a sport tragic that often I have TV1 on the big screen on mute and browse SSN on my laptop.
ACC increases holdings in Sky from 8.35% to 9.4%
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...277/351045.pdf
Might be a positive catalyst
Selling at 17.9 on average and buying at 17
Been taking kiltearns share off em.
I bet Ogg's heart skipped a beat when he saw there was a SKT announcement...
Christ he must have felt deflated when it was just about ACC buying a few more shares!
In love with ACC are we
They hold some of almost every stock on the NZX ….got to do something with the levies eh.
SKT is 0.4% of their NZ investments ….could say they are ‘overweight’ SKY …that’s good but probably a legacy issue.
Wouldn’t read anything into ACC % increasing …as I said got to do something with the levies.
2Degrees full steam ahead for IPO before the year is out.
$1.6B they reckon! For a business with far less FCF than Sky, yet much more positive sentiment towards it.
I like the Sky UK model better anyway. They purchased a broadband service from Telefonica initially in 2013. Three years later they launched Sky Mobile as a MVNO utilising O2's infrastructure. Seems to have worked out for them pretty damn nicely.
Now gee whizz, how on earth might Sky Network Television achieve this exact same outcome? Hmmmmn, anyone?
Oh yes, that's right! Merge with Vocus.
Hey presto! Sky have a broadband network!
Hey presto! Sky can offer mobile as a MVNO using Spark's infrastructure.
question - if nothing comes from these interested parties - do they have to disclose that? or are we left guessing
FY results given 25 August and then the AGM should be in early to mid September.
If a deal is to be done I would think it would be done within the next few weeks. Once both parties agree in principal it doesn’t take that long to wrap things up.
So if we make it to the AGM with no deal announced it is because no deal is happening.
Ive been buying on the way down. If it goes down any further I will have to put in an SSH notice. Cmon 25 August, cant be soon enough.
The SP is dribbling around between 16.3 and 16.5 today on minimal volume and $123,697 of value. Reminds me of that old C&W song. "I AM NOBODY'S CHILD"
Was at Sylvia park yesterday and Sky had a kiosk selling their packages. Must be part of their Olympics campaign.
It's been average for me, I bought Sky Sport Now olympics for $25, the schedule is always inaccurate, says Volleyball but they're showing Archery etc.... and a few channels are playing the same game, e.g.: Channel 2 is playing hockey and so is channel 9, and it's the same team!
There are times where channel 9,10,11 is just sitting there idling, whilst there's games going on.
The playing previous games of the day is bugged, started out good, but now if I want to watch a game that showed earlier on the day, some times it's fine, other times I can only go back to when they're already half way in the game.
Not a great experience.
I have had SSN before and thought it was good.
Currently have a satellite sub and I have to say, it is much better for live sport. Seamless, reliable and the picture quality is a lot better. 'Crisper' somehow (even though SSN is also HD) and the movement on screen is more fluid.
I must be Sky's best customer right now.
I pay them $209.59/month for:
- Broadband ($79)
- Starter ($25.99)
- Entertainment ($25.50)
- Sport ($31.99)
- Movies ($20.93)
- SOHO (freebie)
- Rialto ($11.18)
- MySky ($15)
https://protriathletes.org/sky-new-z...s-cup-coverage
Take THAT Spark Sport!
The real kick in the guts for any notion of a 'deal' being done is that it has now been almost 5 weeks since the Investor Day.
If the Board were enthusiastic for any of the deals, I would have thought something would have been signed off by now.
Doesn't mean that they aren't still negotiating with one of the parties...but the more time that goes on, the less likely it seems.
Honestly, once a deal has been agreed in principal...the financial advisors do not take weeks on end to work out relative valuations, dot the i's and cross the t's.
I reckon every one of the ‘unsolicited approaches’ was low ball, opportunistic.
No deal was ever likely.
Jarden were just pulled in to ward them off. Defensive move.
No way does it take 5 weeks and counting to wrap a deal up.
So now we speculate what sky are going to do with the surplus cash.
I don't think they'll be doing anything like that especially if the property sale is not going ahead. Free cash flow will be invested on setting up booths to advertise broadband in Silvia park. Anyone holding this company needs to have patience, I don't see any catalyst on the horizon for a big jump other than OGGs wet dream. The market has completely lost faith in this business, the proof will have to be in the numbers and thoes numbers will be lackluster until the 'invest for growth' period proves itself.