I think market waiting to hear about the confirmation of growth/profitable trajectory and it'll take off once the news is in. BBs getting tighter towards upward momentum.
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What a fantastic post. Thanks for putting all of that together. I've held these shares for years just waiting for the stars to align.
Don't forget they have a huge amount of cash sitting in the bank which could also increase their valuation provided they start turning a profit.
Revenue guesstimate for the Quarter $11.7mil
$39m full year revenue :eek2:
Q3 will be bolstered by a fairly healthy exchange rate through October/early Nov. It should also include a chunk of Q4 22's large amount of closed contracts. I'm predicting 2 fairly even Qtrs of high 10's, finishing a touch over 37m...
Though fingers are crossed that proves to be conservative if more contact revenue is recognised. I'm a little unsure of how the drop in contracts in Q1 and Q2 effects ongoing revenue. I assume 88%ish of Q2 is recurring so a base of 7.5m + whatever % of closed contracts is new revenue... That's the Grey area as closed contracts surely include new and recurring. The graph seems not to equate to recurring + closed contacts 9 months prior. So what is it? Kinda meaningless without giving parameters as to what closed contracts pertains... if closed contracts were all to convert to new revenue then sheesh kebabs, look out!
Profit should rocket on further revenue growth.
My modeling says $10.875m
Im interested to know what the closed contract means as well. Like last year (see below annoucement) they said they signed a $900k contract which would be delivered over the proceeding 12 months. Then they added that they expect $200k p.a. in subscription revenue with this customer. so i was thinking closed contracts represents transaction revenue (which is reoccurring as well) and hardware revenue. And subscription revenue is separate to the closed contracts. Anyone know how it works?
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21 January 2022 (all numbers are NZ$ unless stated otherwise)
Deal follows a separate announcement earlier in the week of extending a U.S. communications customer contract to >$4m.
ikeGPS Group Limited (ASX/NZX:IKE) or IKE, the company setting the standard for collecting, managing and analysing pole and overhead asset information for electric utilities, communications companies and their engineering service providers, is pleased to announce:
That it has received an approximately $0.9m contract from a new tier-1 North American electric utility customer.
The approximately $0.9m revenue will be fully recognized over the coming 12 months.
At this initial level of users and platform usage, the expected ongoing software subscription revenue from this customer will be approximately $200k per annum.
I believe "closed contract" refers to "signed" contracts, as opposed to contracts still in negotiation. The initial contract covers the major project work to set them up (including devices) then there is a recurring subscription payable to continue to use the IKE platform and analysis (companies can either do their own analysis or pay IKE to do it). I have read a full explanation of this somewhere in the past, but having trouble remembering where now.
This might help:
EDIT: I just had a thought - I think "volume of assets" (or transactions) must refer to the number of poles a customer is collecting field data on/analysing (themselves or by IKE). So the larger the customer's network, the more IKE receives in subscription revenue.Quote:
The core revenue engine for IKE is driven by the number of enterprise customers subscribing to the IKE platform and the volume of assets (called Transactions) being processed through IKE’s software.