Hi Digger,
Yes, we should catch up soon. The dark cloud of redundancy looms overhead at the moment, or worse - relocation to Palmerston North. I may soon have time on my hands for catching up with old friends.
Printable View
Thought we would have had the ann by now, "the drill bit has come up covered in a black gooey substance, we have our laboratory checking it""
Maybe later in the day
delayed by a week for repairs a/c rig operater
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=01047158
m
Funny though, in both announcements 11th and 16th they have drilled to the same depth
The Kan Tan IV seems to have continuing serious problems. It had issues in the West Indies when drilling there in 2008:
Speaking today, Mike Coolen, Canadian Superior's President & CEO, said, "This mechanical failure of the rig's drilling equipment is untimely and regrettable; particularly, as drilling had progressed to within a few days of reaching the expected final total depth (final "TD") for the well. We expect the rig owner, Sinopec Corp., and their managing contractor, A. P. Moller - Maersk A/S, to safely and efficiently complete this repair with essentially $0 daily rig rate and for the rig to get back to drilling promptly towards the end of this week, so that the drilling and evaluation of the "Endeavour" well can be properly completed."
By the time it arrived in Australia from the West Indies (June 2009) it needed 6 weeks in Geelong of repair and meaintenance. Once on ORG's/AWE's Rockhopper 1 site in Bass Strait, it had significant down time (ca. 2 weeks at $0 daily rate) while repairs were carried out to it cranes prior to drilling the Rockhopper sidetrack. Now Hoki 1. I reckon KK4 gets hired at a cheap rate and a guaranteed $0 daily rate during breakdowns.
iteresting snipits from awe presentation
http://research.iress.com.au/ids/cur...0F4120000&ppv=
page 10 shows some more plays round tui which i havent sen before
sold off some nzo :( after many years
What was your rationale there Geezy, half way through a drill with a few more to come soon ??
Heck I must have missed an election somewhere, thought John KEY was running the ship ??
Title: Latest News
Prime Minister John Kidd is this morning officially opening the Kupe gas and oil field.
Regards
Chris Roberts
Public Affairs Manager
I see that the latest Macquarie valuation comes out at $2.09. A value of 39cps is placed on the exploration portfolio, using the same valuation method that Macquarie uses for all the Australian oil stocks. The other analysts covering NZOG have zero or close to zero in their valuation for exploration, and instead mention it as a potential ‘upside’. The Macquarie approach is rather more comprehensive and scientific.
Comprehensive, yes.
Scientific? Maybe.
BB
If you watch CH3 news tonight you might see "John Kidd" in his cold water suit as he gets off the helicopter onto the Kupe platform and later at the official opening. A big day for NZO and all the other partners.
ORG making big noises about the potential of the upcoming drill off Canterbury especially now that Anadarko have taken a position in this drill. Talk of up 3 times the size of Maui. Lets hope
Um - at the risk of being lambasted for being way off topic - here's the facts. (as brief as I can be):
MS-DOS, NT or whatever pile of horse doo-dahs Billy created is still 'years behind' the MVS operating system. IBM produced OS2 which was BASED on the MVS kernal back in in 1992, 1995 Microbrain brought out windblows95 which still wasn't a 'real' operating system. NT was but it is bloat-ware compared to Unix or Linux …
… which is even still not actually and industrial strength operating system - Unix is actually a training os especially created for computer nerds to learn their trade on. It-was-not-intended-for-the-real-world. It is an undying pity that unix became the langua franca of the computer geek world - the dumbest part of it is tying the file access method in with the os…and there are plenty of other dumb things about it to boot.
And also! IBM brought out the PC. Not to go into song and dance about the 'oddities'- please take it as read that it has the silliest hardware architecture since the three handled coffee cup was invented. What moron thought interrupt driven processing was a good idea definitely needed to be removed from the gene pool.
…And then just to create more unreliability and mayhem they invented object oriented programming languages - for heaven's sake - if they got to the moon and back without them what maniac ever thought adding and extra few hundred points of complexity would ever be beneficial. OO languages are ok if never used in the real world - but they create so much mayhem in the real world that nobody is willing to use a certain very poopular oo language for nuclear power station controllers. what does that tell you?
Harumph.
And Kupe on TV1
http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/kupe...-3421210/video
They were saying on the radio this morning that the Kan Tan repairs are going to take a further two weeks.
Information released on their webpage 3 days ago by nzo
Yawn, its going to be a long 3 weeks.
And Origin is going to be waiting for the Kan Tan IV as well ...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10634954
Could be a short 3 weeks -the announcement was approx 10 days ago-and a considerable allowance had been made for weather downtime-the weather has been good and the swell has dropped today-and will stay good all week
What is this 3 weeks stuff Mr Tommy. We have been waiting about 3 months now another 3 weeks. Who would have believed way back at the last AGM that by now we have only 1.25 wells drilled when we should have them all completed and well on the way to analysis of results.
The 3 weeks for the maintenance work on the Kan Tan 4 is up this Friday, 9th.
Don't know about anyone else, but I'm starting to get a bit, er, drill hard about this.
You never know when you might get lucky.
I believe with nzo as long as you have patience luck will come your way .
The market hasnt taken account of what is happening in the world in valuing nzo .
Oil prices are at their highest for 18months-and the trend is up .
The last analyst rating of nzo was over $2 a share .
Its only a matter of time-and if luck strikes soon we might be looking at big increases in sp .
hoki drilling resumes 2am april 5th
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2010040...kjfzktx30f.pdf
I alway see these days and think the share price might actually finally be on the way to where it should be. The real test is to have a few days of moderate gains which are held.
Here's hoping though. I am one of the long suffering holders though have done very well with options and trades.
Cheers,
MPC
chances are it will be a duster. 1/10 odds that it will be a find.
Not exactly Fish, NZO has quite a large amount invested ....
NZOG bought a 10 per cent stake in Hoki this month from oil company OMV. Hoki is about 150km off New Plymouth.
NZOG is spending about $10m for its stake in Hoki and share of exploration well costs.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ould-equal-Tui
NZO
12/04/2010
MINE
REL: 1209 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: Hoki Exploration Well Disclosure Notice
NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises of a progress report on drilling of
the Hoki-1 exploration well.
The Kan Tan IV drilling rig resumed operations last week, having previously
drilled to 1,505 metres and set casing. At 0600 hours (NZ Time) today, the
well was at a measured depth of 2,132 metres and was drilling ahead.
That equates to 104.5 Meters per day which would seem by comparing previous reports a little slow.
Hard rock??? Wishful !!!
exactly my thoughts too,
a slow drill could be hard material to get though, which could mean a solid roof to trap the oil.
they're hundreds of metres from the cap that matters so does what they're going through now matter?
considering that the rig is sitting on the edge of the continental shelf, having a hard substrait would be helpful.
i would love to see the siesmecs ......... not that i know how to read them..... but if it came with an explaination as to what is there,
and why their drilling, it would put a picture to the project.
Somebody likes the look of NOG, buyers @ 160 and 161 for 109,000 odd each, maybe disillusioned TEL shareholders changing camp
NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that at 0600 hours (NZ Time) today, the Hoki-1 well was at a measured depth of 3,428 metres and was drilling ahead.
The Hoki-1 well is located in exploration permit PEP 38401 in the offshore Taranaki Basin and is being drilled by the Kan Tan IV semi-submersible drilling rig.
The Hoki-1 well intersected the target North Cape Formation sands overnight, but these were not associated with any indications of hydrocarbons.
It is expected that over the next 24 hours the upper part of the Wainui Formation will be intersected. The well is planned to be drilled to a total depth of approximately 3,570 metres.
I'm no geologist, but I would have thought that with more zones of interest below, then at least no hydrocarbons have escaped from them up to the just-intersected North Cape sands. The ann talks of the upper Wainui formation - is there more than one Wainui formation to be drilled - anyone know?
I'm still hopeful for Hoki, then Tui has a much higher chance of success.
If the first zone has no oil then the chances are much reduced that the zone below will have oil.
Hence the market interpreting this well as a dry one.
The two tui wells planned are only going to add some incremental reserves (10-15million) and nothing like the amount that could have been in Hoki (250 million barrels)
1000 to one you are probably correct Notie in saying that it is likely a duster. TUI was the exception in that when it was drilled it had 4 zones of interest with all the top three being dry.Then bang along came the f sands at the very bottom and that is how TUI came to life. So it is just not completely true that HOKI will be dry. It is still a long shot but you never know. True oilers keep hope alive even with the odds against them.
Any idea if North Cape was the main target and Wainui secondary? How was the 250m barrels estimate split over these 2 zones? Doesnt seem to be any info available.
With Tui the main targets were dry but the final lowest zone had the oil, so still some chance with Hoki I guess.
I also think there are a lot of stop orders being triggered and an overreaction based on NZO's fundamentals.
Can you advise where the potential 10-15 million reserves at Tui number comes from? The exploration fields they are soon to drill seem to be the same size as the existing production fields looking at PPP's reports.
Like you I think the market has misinterpreted what is happening-the drill isnt yet in the primary target
I would still give 10 to 1 odds that its dry
Anyway i have been buying nzo today on its cheap fundamentals
.
Once that work is completed, the Kan Tan IV will
be transported to New Zealand. The first well to
be drilled in New Zealand is Hoki-1, in which
NZOG has a 10% stake. Hoki is currently
expected to spud in January 2010.
Hoki is a large potentially oil-bearing prospect on
the western margin of the Taranaki basin. The
Hoki-1 well will test both the primary Island
Sandstone reservoir and a secondary target in
the North Cape formation.
this page dated 9 july 2009 says the primary is below the secondary target.
so nothing has at yet changed.
http://www.nzog.net/n153.html
I've read a dozen articles on the subject. They all mention North Cape as the upper, secondary target and either Island or Wainui as the primary target, lower down. Island and Wainui must be the same thing.
Hoki was billed as a possible "Saudi of the South" last year.
The 250m barrel target is still possible, my friends.
AWE Limited reports that at 0600 hours (NZ Time) today, the Hoki-1 well, located in exploration permit PEP 38401 in the offshore Taranaki Basin, was at a measured depth of 3,428 metres and was drilling ahead. The well intersected the target North Cape Formation sands overnight, but these were not associated with any indications of hydrocarbons.
It is expected that over the next 24 hours the upper part of the Wainui Formation will be intersected.
So when I wake up around 6am tomorrow the primary target will be intersected . Preliminary results of the drill will be known sometime tomorrow .
Is it likely-or possible- that a market announcement will be made over the week-end ?
Fish, sorry to burst your bubble but the primary target has been drlled. here was the news today
Primary target dry in Hoki-1
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Friday, 16 April 2010
NEW Zealand’s most isolated well – Hoki-1, on the edge of the continental shelf off Taranaki – has failed to find any hydrocarbons in the main target zone, the Cretaceous-aged North Cape reservoir sequence.
Minority partner New Zealand Oil & Gas today said that Hoki-1 had intersected the North Cape Formation sands overnight but there were no indications of hydrocarbons.
NZOG said it was expected that over the next 24 hours the upper part of the secondary target, the deeper Wainui Formation, would be intersected on the way down to an anticipated total depth of about 3570m.
Hoki-1, which is being drilled about 135 kilometres west of New Plymouth, was at a measured depth of 3428m at 6am with the Kan Tan IV semi-submersible rig drilling ahead.
Operator AWE believed the Hoki prospect, in licence PEP 38401, had the potential to contain up to 250 million barrels of oil.
As for Tui, AWE have decided to drill the 5 million barrel Tui SW and the risky 30 million barrel Kahu channel. Have a look at some of the awe presentations are they are very detailed and have much more information than the pretty average nzog ones
Glad I went to bed early lastnight beofre reading your post notie.
Still on the upside oil is creeping up-I reckon nzo should be getting close to $130nz for their tui and kupe
Looks like they have changed their minds on what the primary and secondary targets are!
Here's a link to NZOG's release July last year.
http://www.nzog.net/n153.html
and the vital sentence from it
The Hoki-1 well will test both the primary Island Sandstone reservoir and a secondary target in the North Cape formation.
Oil actually dropped quite a bit, overnight. The Dow down significantly, with markets quite rattled by this Goldman Sachs thing and the fear of similar action elsewhere. However my own personal opinion is that, on more sober reflection, markets will soon put this behind them and instead take in the larger picture of a steadily recovering global economy.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3590...o-hydrocarbons
By lunchtime Saturday it was expected the Wainui Formation would be intersected.
NZOG spokesman Chris Roberts said it remained possible something of interest could be found in the Wainui Formation, with the company able to report on that stage of the well on Monday.
"Inevitably we are disappointed when a well isn't a raging success, but we do have to temper that by the fact this always was something of a long shot," Mr Roberts said.
So what was the result of Wainui??? market is about to open
Someone must think they have some inside information? 200K shares selling down 5 cents or 3%.
1000 to 1 it will be negative,as it would have to be very large now at 350 klms out and the North Cape Formation already saying it has nothing. Guess we will have to move on the Tui SE. It may be a lot smaller but it is close to existing inforstructure so any small find will be a bonus.
If the final target was due to be reached midday saturday, its now almost 48 hours later, is it possible they have found something? Surely if Wainui was dry they would have made the annoucenment first thing this morning.
How long does it take to interpret the results?
Clutching at straws here !
its a dead duck - move onto tui
M
apparently there is supposed to be heaps of oil around NZ. So why can't anyone find it?? Personally I cannot see it. The geology and history of the formation of NZ suggest that there will not be much to find and at the rate we are going oil will be obsolete by the time they do find a decent amount. Time for NZO to stop wasting money on this and move into renewable energy. Cheaper and more reliable by far.
This is another failed well like the one a few months ago where they were sold a lemon about 3 months before they announced another dry well.
Whats the stuff they have been putting in barrels for the last 12 months ???? golden syrup ???
Don't ne a loser Nevl, drillin dry holes is part of the oil game, if you don't like it go and buy TEL or CEN, where the sp only goes up !!
exactly. So let the big boys do it and waste their cash. They would be better off spending 30mil with Neptune energy and building tidal turbines in the cook strait. Todd Energy have already invested in the Kaipara tidal scheme. NZO are throwing good money after bad and their choices of drilling prospects are not exactly brilliant. Greymouth Resources got a good hit in Chile. NZO don't seem to be smart enough. Still its good to have a oil stock but there are better 1 in 100 stocks out there.
HI , Nevl i think you are onto it. We have since TUI drilled a whole lot of nothing so i would imagin that the directors will be doing some head scratching about what to do from here.Especially if the near TUI wells are also dry,then the sh-t will hit the fan about where it is all going sooooo wrong.
From my part i think we should start looking at minerials,especially now that the govt is opening up the country. A NZ company could end up being well placed sharing with overseas big pockets that also have skills in the particular mining sector.So i to am wondering about the wisdom of drilling ahead,given our non success. The question has to be looked at.
Cheers.
Just hang in there, folks.
The big gusher is on its way.
Just don't know when.
nzo need pike to deliver more than ever now
If they are relaying just on pike then god help them. nzo have soon some real promise at throwing money into dry holes over the years and history seems to be repeating for them.
The last time they drilled themselves something good as an operator was probably Kupe back in the mid-80's.
Next thing that is likely to happen is nzo will throw their money at Deep water canterbury or northland. Unfortunately a bit of infill drilling at tui ain't going to cut it for them especially when they are in for their small shareholding in tui.
Minerals-if nzo can't find oil what hope do they have of finding gold?
It's funny, isn't it. Tui was supposed to be the big company maker, some years ago. All looked rosy, with the huge oil price spike coming exactly at the best possible moment - right after production start with huge volumes per day. Yet, here we are, almost 3 years later, with Tui outputs down to a trickle, much of the profits thrown down a hole and the three companies involved not looking like they just made a huge fortune (not sure about the Japanese, perhaps they made better use of their share). NZO, AWE and PPP do look no better (SP wise) than they looked 3 years ago. So what happened?
At least PPP looked for a brief moment like they were pulling something off, but most of that enthusiasm has evaporated after the disaster in Vietnam.
As for NZO, it seems obvious that there is a management competency problem. Sniper pointed this out right here several years ago (what name does he post under these days?; I don't follow sharetrader much anymore...) and was vilified. But how right he was, Pike was a problem back then and still seems to be.
Anyway, maybe some additional find at Tui will provide relief. I wouldn't necessarily count on it though, remember, Taranui and Tieke were also considered to have a high strike likelhood and were dry.
The thing is though that even if the upcoming drills are successful, that is no guarantee that NZO will be better off a few years down the track than it is now. Just look what happened since Tui started production.
In the last 5 years NZO has taken on some top expensive experts that have so far delivered nothing.All the wells are dry and as a reward each AGM we give the directors and in particular DS more free shares for a great job done.If the next near TUI wells are also dry we will have run all the directors throw a compentcy delivery test to see if the direction they are taken us,and would continue taken us is worthwhile.To have so many dry wells shows either the directors are overpaid to hell and the results given is only equal to quesswork.The sharemarket reaction shows that AWE with 5 times the market exposure to HOKI has been marked down no more that NZO. The hard truth is that the market is saying that NZO needs a new directional cleanup.In fact NZO only has going for it what was discovered some years ago and is finally the last developments completed these last few months.
If NZO lays out another drilling program for next year along the same drill and hope without facing the hard facts of its nil results its SP will take a knock,even with the three projects finally all supporting it.So i think you all get my feelings,it is no longer just bad luck,the direction and decision making needs looking at.Either their is no oil to find or else we do not have the compency or the equipment to find it.Time for some head knocking.
Hey wait a minute gloom and doomers.
Kupe has just started producing - LPG, Oil, Gas - NZOG spent $200m on their share, this is going to be producing for years to come.
Tui oil fields still pumping, the Umuroa is chartered until 2022, thats another 12 years.
Pike investment - one day !!!
So Albacore and Hoki were duds, but thats the game, theres plenty of money coming in and hopefully each year there will be several wells drilled. We have the 2 Tui wells over the next couple of months.
Dont start buying into the Noties and Balances just yet.
Totally agree - It is natural to be disappointed with a dry well - I think the wells are over-hyped and the company should stick with a more balanced view instead of ramping the prospects for each drill - they need to realise they are now producers and get away from the fund raising mentality required for an explorer. A better approach would be:
We will not go broke because of Kupe.
In a year or two Pike will be cashflow positive and the money put into 3 or 4 drills per year.
In the next year Tui cashflow will be used for "X" number of drills.
Wildcat drilling is a numbers game. We have the cash to drill for the next twenty years etc etc
I am also surprised by the "gloom and doomers"
On Tui and Kupe production alone NZO are forecasting > 1 million barrels of oil equivalent P/A until 2015. After that > .8 million barrels until 2021. And there is still plenty of potential upside in the current Kupe reserves.
Finding new oils fields is the risk for all oil exploration companies with an average success rate of 1 in 10. I guess NZO is still doing better than the 1 in 10 strike rate?
I wish NZO stuck oil every time but that is not going to happen.
The problem is the compentcy of the management and directors. I think it was Albacore or something that they purchased an extra 40% of about 1 month before declaring that the well was dry!! They are just playing a lottery game at the moment of drill and hope. And burning up cash to do it.
[QUOTE=KentBrockman;301528] NZO, AWE and PPP look no better (SP wise) than they looked 3 years ago. So what happened?
1 April 2007 NZO share price 92c, market capitalisation $235m
1 April 2010 NZO share price $1.54, market capitalisation $600m. 5c dividends paid April 08, Oct 08, Oct 09.
Hey for my part i do not consider myself a becoming member of the Notie or Balances,nor a doom and gloomer,but there does come a time in every successful business or successful person when you have to assess the direction you are taking.Watch out in particular for that mentality that says ''look i can drill this many wells per year and still not go broke'. That is very dangerous a bit like a teenager refusing to see the long term conquences of the overall cost of smoking just because his allowance today covers it. There has to be better ways of spending our money than just a teenager smoking or a company carrying on in the same grove drill more dry wells. To get back onto a succesful track we have to honestly face that we are not getting it right on the present coa-rse. We have now drilled about 7 or 8 unsucessful wells in a row,going way back to Pukeko.It is not just the last two. Something is badly wrong with our planning and decision making or else the oil does not exist.
And i am well aware of the assest side of NZO but it needs asking if the spending is going in the right places.Before we commit to any more drilling the company needs to go back to the drawing boards. This is the question i hoped other would have commented on,not just say "well we can afford it so what to hell" It is simple either the oil does not exist or our methodology for finding it is flawed.
[QUOTE=Mr Tommy;301571] Mr Tommy,it all comes down to what long term image you have where the company can go. It is a bit like a good athletic saying i won that race and sitting back and leaving it at that just because others have done worse.Would it not be better for the athletic to acknowledge and then move on to better achievements.I accept that NZO has got into the top 15 companies but we have stagnated since and it is time for you and many other to ask why.In fact the greatest damage Notie and the balances have done is occupy the position that we who care about the company should sometimes occupy.In fact it is the mark of a succesful company or person to examine itself.And just saying we have enought money to drill dry wells is not an option.
Digger.Are you going to stick with this stock or do I detect you are getting concerned?
I must confess that it is crossing my mind to move on.
We would all like every well to succeed. That's not going to happen. As we repeatedly state, exploration is a risky venture and each time we drill we are taking a carefully calculated risk, working with other companies and using the best information available.
NZOG has participated in the drilling of 12 exploration wells in offshore Taranaki in the past decade, at interest levels ranging from 10 to 40%. Two more wells will be drilled in the coming months. As stated since 2008, NZOG intends to spend an average of $20-25m per year on exploration, while also pursuing other investment opportunities.
Date Well
Feb 2000 Hochstetter
Feb 2003 Tui Commercial discovery
Apr 2004 Amokura Commercial discovery
May 2004 Pukeko
Aug 2004 Pateke Commercial discovery
Sep 2004 Kiwi
Dec 2006 Tieke
Aug 2007 Hector
Sep 2007 Taranui
Jul 2008 Momoho Sub-commercial discovery
Dec 2009 Albacore
April 2010 Hoki
May 2010 Tui SW ?
June 2010 Kahu ?
Notie, what benefit do you think is achieved by operating an exploration well? I can not see any reason why you do not let larger companies with specialist resources to do it.
NZO has only participated in 12 wells in a decade. That would be pretty expensive keeping the required resources on the NZO salary sheet.
I would also expect that the permit holder with the highest % of the permit would have the rights to be the operator. This would eliminate NZO from all the wells to date.
It's quite true that NZOG has not been the operator for any exploration drilling in the past decade - the company has been a minority partner in its joint ventures. You do not need to be the operator to be successful, as Tui shows.
[QUOTE=digger;301577]Digger this is an interesting comment especially coming from you. It was only 6-12 months ago that NZO was accused of sitting on its hands and not looking to grown the company. Exploration is absolutely a risk and reward game, the only way to grow the company is to drill wells. I think that NZO and David have proven that they are pretty balanced and do not take excessive risks but also are not risk adverse. The success rate of 3/13 is above the industry average.
The share price sucks but that is purely because NZO is on the NZ exchange. Remember Fletcher energy, Shell bought them out for approx a couple of dollars each. I have heard that the Pohikura permit alone is probably worth >$50 per share. I expect that NZO will probably be taken over in time.
Thanks Chris for reminding us of the reality of nzo share price,dividends and exploration .
However I am now a little confused as to the success chances of the Tui sw and Kahu .
I thought Tui sw was more an appraisal well and Kahu a riskier operation -is that correct ?
Is it possible that momoho might be commercial one day ?
If we accept Pateke and Amokura were appraisal wells, that implies we have drilled 10 wells with one success. That seems consistent with the often quoted odds. Perhaps we will get another discovery in the next 10 wells, but that is not certain. Of course we can hope it will be the first of the 10 not the last, and even better if we get 2 or 3 discoveries.
This is the business we choose to be in folks - plenty more dry wells to come!