I'm tempted - but buying in a downtrend is an automatic "NO" for me. Happy to miss out on buying at the bottom!
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I'm tempted - but buying in a downtrend is an automatic "NO" for me. Happy to miss out on buying at the bottom!
People often think that about Catch-22 as, being anti-war, it's a sentiment not often associated with WWII. It's also regularly confused as the inspiration for M*A*S*H as they were both released in movie form about the same time, but in fact M*A*S*H was based on a different book.
If I was the CEO, then would of paid 10c div as usual, then on ex div date announced a special div of 10c to be paid out in December in time for Christmas. And paid out the rest over the next 6 or 12 months at different times plus the normal div. and the sp would probably still be over $2. Simple aye, and I'm just the shoe shine boy. And on that note, bought more at $1.82:eek2:.
On to it mac; newbies take note ; don't buy in a down trend.; really simple ,except greed and egos and lil devils on ones shoulder saying "go on give us a thrill" buybuybuy"; also after a % drop it has to go up more to get back to where it was % wise. Wait for the bend at the end of the trend and don't try and pick bottoms, see T/a threads
That 10 year AIR chart which shows the pricing behaviour of true cyclicals is giving me nightmares - past the haunting stage.
i know its a totally unsophisticated hand drawn chart that has no credentials and is load of bonkum (and the other kind things mentioned the other day) but what it shows is slowly and painfully happening.
First version was posted last April (post #5798) when the price was 280/290 on the way down from 320. Various updates since - could the price go 125/150 before we see the bottom of this cycle - qite possible because whats happening is how real cyclicals often perform.
That 10 year AIR chart which shows the pricing behaviour of true cyclicals is now giving me nightmares - past the haunting stage.
i know its a totally unsophisticated hand drawn chart that has no credentials and is load of bunkum (and the other kind things mentioned the other day) but what it shows is slowly and painfully happening.
First version was posted last April (post #5798) when the price was 280/290 on the way down from 320. One comment back then was it couldn't possibly fall to 250. Various updates since - could the price go 125/150 before we see the bottom of this cycle - quite possible because whats happening is how real cyclicals often perform.
And while we are looking into past posts:
4-Aug-16:
4-Aug-16
Looks like my crystal ball was spot on :t_up:
More interesting question is - what can we learn from the hyped up threads on ST - may this be DIL (at some stage), PEB (at some stage), or more recently AIR?
1) Nobody is always right, no matter what their reputation (and yes, this does include myself)
2) Its easy to recognise hyped up threads ... that's the threads where a handful of posters (often overexposed to the particular stock) keep repeating the same hype over and over again. In addition to that do they start to put negative attributes on posters who dare to have a different (less hyped up) view of their beloved stock. I am referring to attributes like "nay-sayers", "scaremongerers", "haters". While it is unpleasant to be called this way ... these attributes are useful "red flags" for every investor. If you see them repeatedly used in a thread it is normally a great idea to avoid the respective stock.
... and back to AIR:
3) "cyclical means cyclical" (thanks Theresa;)): If you have a cyclical stock for which all stars aligned in a particular year and where the share price did rise well above any prior peak ... than it is quite likely that it will go down from here. If it is already in a confirmed downtrend (nice head and shoulders) and the fundamentals point to increasing competition and dwindling margins, than it is unreasonable to assume that paying out a huge dividend (which in parts was just a capital return based on a loss making deal and is in anyone's books just a big cash outflow anyway) is going to pop up the share price after going X-dividend.
4) Ah - yes ... it is a quite common folly to buy stocks based on dividend promises. While we don't know yet, whether AIR will be in a position to keep its promise (and for how long) of a minimum dividend of 20 cents p.a., the markets seem to be doubtful, and I think they have a point. Nobody (and I mean NOBODY) has a clue how the aviation market looks like in 6 or 12 months from now. How much worth is a promise which can only be kept if the market treats AIR nicely? Which means ... yes, if they keep their promise, than AIR will provide a great investment income. The question is just ... how likely is it that they will be able to keep their promise?
Just to clarify ... I think that AIR is one of the better airlines (though in my view not the best, whatever this means). I expect them to stay around (and I can't say the same about all their competitors), unless they keep repeating their past mistakes ... but two times burnt should be enough - shouldn't it?
I could well imagine to buy at some stage back in again, but not yet. The thing with market cycles is ... you normally need to see blood on the floor before things start to improve again. I expect margins in the aviation industry to keep dropping for some time - and this only will stop if some carriers can't stand the pressure anymore. Only when carriers start to drop out of the market do the survivors have a chance to increase margins and profitability again ...
DYOR.
Maybe a Thread for "Trading Stock's ", only would be good and transparent and informing for all?. But then with the NZX such a small market with frequent liquidity probs with many stocks that may defeat the purpose of trading. Not of course in the larger frequently traded stocks like AIR but it would provide clarity re where folks are coming from and leave no questions of possible agendas or motives. If there is any int someone could start a trading thread for NZ stocks and one for ASX stocks.
Over 300 threads on AIR arguably the most discussed stock on here so are many of the posts from traders, short term investors? Then another question arises.Is long term investing now redundant on all but a few stocks?
Not sure I understand what you are asking for? Traders and investors talk about the same thing, they just have different time horizons. However - no matter whether you are a trader or an investor ... it is always beneficial to buy cheap and to sell dear.
Or do you mean that hype should be limited to traders-only threads with investor-only threads being used to have the serious conversations? I think this would miss the point of creating the hype in the first place. Sure - there might be some inexperienced traders who are just "whistling in the dark", but I think most of the more experienced traders just want to influence their audience to push the SP up ... for obvious reasons. What would be the point if only other traders would read this stuff?
Taking the 3 'local' airline stocks and comparing their current share price to consensus analyst value from 4-traders and we have:
AIR: $2.20; $1.82; 17.3% discount.
QAN: $4.07; $3.23; 20.6% discount*
VAH: $0.29; $0.24; 17.3% discount
*I have taken the liberty of chucking out a $8 valuation for QAN - otherwise $4.35.
So maybe this is where the AIR share price should be..
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
....good thoughts to pounder.. BP
I found it interesting ,if not relevant,that the downward slide for both PEB and AIR came after the Management sold a fair amount of shares. Im certainly not saying its, in any form ,the only reason,but just one more thing to put in the over shoulder computer.
All three companies certainly had their day as the flavor of the year on ST--(which I guess means emotional attachment)
I certainly learned alot from the DIL thread,way back then (when Moosey went out for his long walk after repeated warnings about the share from TA folks)--the beauty of these threads is that you can go back and read the entire thing and learn (unless some delete all their posts,which is a shame (to put it diplomatically) Hell,we all have egos...Sages sit and meditate for years to try to get that unbridled beast under control and appear to be happier for it.
Of course AIR will continue to run as a functional company--It appears to be more a matter of relativity.(with a dose of investor sentiment) We all know how easy it is to get that sentiment wrong...Thats between us and the market.
The amount we invest in one share is probably more between us and ourselves.
Aint nothin wrong with taking a ST break--sometimes just mowing the lawn or doing something like a days work that gets me outside my head helps heaps for me. (like Moosies walk,regardles of what he decided in the end)
But there shouldnt be anything standing in the way of coming back either...no body OWNS the fall in the SP..out of us,anyway....we're just a bunch of average Joes (or Janes)trying to think our way through the maize--hopefully we learn in the process.
Across the cycle sort of thing, so one can discuss short-term variations.
In order to maintain a $0.20 pa dividend and otherwise stay still, then AIR need to average minimum after tax profits of about $290M [$400M npbt] +inflation increments per annum.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: No AIR, much FUR.
... which would be equivalent to an EPS of 26 cents ...
Quite challenging goal considering that their average EPS over the last 7 years (that's how far back my spreadsheet happens to go) was only 19 cents pa.
This time it will be different?
Discl: No AIR, no FUR ;);
Yes Air lines are cyclical. Still some cyclical stocks should have demand as they have more legs in their cycles.
Reasonably positive outlook is expected in North American Airlines in 2017 as well and they can have the strongest price positioning. Lower oil and gas prices could reduce travel volume in countries such as Russia, the Middle East and Africa. There is a prediction about a strong hotel market in the UK in 2017. Latin American and Carrabin region also should see lower travel rates.
Asia Pacific region is looking at moderate growth in airfares and hotels in 2017. I believe Air NZ should be able to maintain sufficient passenger revenues to cover operating costs and generate profits. Selected Airlines, hotels and restaurants stocks in the USA and Asia Pacific region should outperform others in 2016/17. In addition, lower fuel prices should benefit both airlines and hotels.
Why not AIR NZ one of the safest Airlines in the world?
https://skift.com/2016/09/14/report-...rowth-in-2017/
Cheap Airfare Will Power Corporate Travel Growth in 2017 Says Report
It's amusing that all the pessimists are out with a touch of glee currently while the cheerleaders are silent...people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect. While there is tourism growth, limited domestic competition, domestic fares will hold up underlying earnings for the dividend and currently like hotel tariffs, we will all pay more that. That is a different issue to share price and capital preservation, been out for a while and wonder what all the fuss is about.
Certainly a bit weird when I seem to be the thread optimist.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
lol ,it would be nice if the thread optimists who have apparently gone bush would man up and tell us there plan now that things have gone astray.
anyway I own air as part of my diversified portfolio so I not worried about falling share price as overall my portfolio is still up. I sense the bush walkers may have too much on this one share which would be a bad mistake to put all there eggs on one share
Remember HBL when it went down to 1.09.people thought it was the end of the world...so many critics...now look at HBL....it does the same with AIR....
I like bush walks. Have walked lots of Waitakere rangers walks.But getting back to AIR. This reminds me of last time when I started buying in.....2011-2012. Bought 17 blocks of AIR from $1.13down to .845c. The diff. is we are $1 higher than that now, so you have to work out how much better off AIR is now than what it was then. one diff. is back then it was paying 5.5c div. and now it is paying 20c div. not to mention new planes etc. If it's a $1 better off then we could be near the new bottom now. But what do I know, I'm just the boot polisher. But am still working through my plan B and will begin plan C in the near future. Now for a walk in the rain.
Yes indeed as you said Raz - people need to understand market sentiment and the actual underlying company can have a disconnect
Especially with cyclicals such as airlines - company fundamentals mean squat all with these type of stocks, AIR's share price is following what some see as typical cyclical behaviour
AIR is a brilliant company, it's leader may even have a glowing halo. AIR made $800m last year and will make over $500m this year and probably much the same the year after - and pay at least 20 cents dividend.
But that dividend may not always be reflected in the share price
No question about that ... this is exactly what cyclical stocks are about. They go up and down and up and down again. I don't think anybody suggested that the current downtrend is the end of the world for AIR - it was more about whether it is wise to hold (or accumulate) a cyclical stock in the early (or medium) phases of a downtrend. Obviously - we might disagree on whether this is the start or already the end of the downtrend, but picking bottoms is something wiser people than me are getting wrong, so I better not attempt this discipline ...
So yes, everybody relax ... AIR is highly likely to go up again at some stage. The question is just when, and ... when it does ... wouldn't it have made more sense to own the same AIR shares bought cheap instead of still holding them purchased dear?
Shares are a bit like seats in a plane. You can pay lots for an AIR flight from CHC to AKL, or you can pay less for the same seat in the same plane on the same flight (if you get the timing right). Both seats will get you at the same time and with the same comfort (or lack thereof) to your destination. I personally prefer to buy them when they are on special (and - back to shares enjoy the same dividend than the people who paid lots), but this is just me.
I think the jury may be still out on whether you can factor in the dividend as a reason to buy.I think from what we have seen so far is that the concept of ''free money'' is not one that can be assumed, as the dividend does affect the company's value(more on the TA thread)
I have my own pet theory that ,until the next results from AIR,the market is still in the ''post dividend'' frame of mind---buyers may want to buy the share-but not pay for what is sitting in the sellers bank----seller wants to sell -and keep what is in his bank---in between is the SP---the AIR results may change the atmosphere according to what they are(provided the ''post dividend'' market has not gathered enough momentum to become a factor in itself)------of course,as always,outside markets remain a wild card.
I still don't get it why anybody could think the 20 cent dividend in perpetuity is a given? It is a promise by woefully overpaid executives who sold down their own shares. This gives you an idea how much they think their promises are worth. So yes - AIR may or may not pay for the years to come 20 cents dividend.
How likely do you think it is they can keep their promises with rapidly diminishing margins in the airline industry? 50%? 20% NIL? As soon as you accept it is not 100% (and nothing in life is but death and taxes) it is easy to see how much (or how little) the market trusts in the promises.
FY 2017 ... they say they make 500m ... and given that we are well into the period, lets assume the promised divvie is (sort of) safe. Obviously - we still can have another 9/11 somewhere on this globe or another Saars outbreak, or Trump might win the US election ...
What about FY 2018? Competition is still increasing, margins dropping and oil might not stay low forever. Can they still pay the divvie?
What about 2019? Tourism won't boom forever, oil might be dear and president Trump together with his old friends Vladimir Putin and the dear leader of North Korea are shooting down all alien planes over their (rapidly increasing) territory, using US generals as projectiles (just an example, lets not get into that ...). Is AIR still able to pay the divvie?
No matter what happens, it is quite safe to assume that they won't be able to pay a 20 cent divvie in perpetuity. Mr and Mrs Market seem to agree.
Hi Black Peter
I take it from your recent posts you are not going to buy any AIR shares in the foreseeable future
I don't intend to buy any AIR shares NOW. Not sure about your term "foreseeable future" - as far as I am concerned no mortal being can foresee it ;) - and we might leave the discussion about the non mortals for some other thread.
However - what I can predict is that I won't buy any AIR shares as long as the confirmed downtrend is intact. If & when the downtrend breaks (no matter whether this is next month, next year or later) am I likely to review the fundamentals at that stage and will make a buy / not buy decision based on fundamentals I can't foresee (sic) at this stage.
Does this help?
I will know tomorrow why the things I predicted yesterday didn't happen today.
(Not original - adapted from elsewhere)
Just remember I do not think buying airline shares is a good idea - OK?
Let me be pessimistic and assume that for FY2017 AIR earns $0.314 ps and for each year after that there profit is 80% of the prior years, so
FY2017 $0.314
FY2018 $0.251
FY2019 $0.201
FY2020 $0.161
FY2021 $0.129
FY2022 $0.103
FY2023 $0.082
FY2024 $0.066
FY2025 $0.053
FY2026 $0.042
pretty dire prediction - that would be most peoples hope.
Now you need two things to pay a fully imputed dividend:
1/ Cash (ie cash flow)
2/ Imputation Credits
So pull a few numbers out of the FY2016 financial statements and investor presentation and assume that they do not spend much on new planes over that time frame (which is a reasonable assumption but they will need to looking at 777 replacements before the end).
Now I could have this wrong but I believe they could pay a flat $0.20 in annual dividends for each and every year up to and including FY2025.
It would not be sensible to do so if that profit curve or similar proved true, but it does illustrate that they do have some flexibility to weather some bad times.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: still not buying AIR or similar.
Nice scenario PT, and while I don't think it is pessimistic, it is obviously highly unrealistic.
Airlines earnings historically seem to move roughly in 7 year cycles - though often overlaid by other effects (like economical crisis, volcano eruptions, losing planes for various reasons, epidemics, political crisis, fuel price hikes, acts of terrorism).
As well ... during the peak times every Tom, Dick and Harry tend to found a new airline to join into the money making business. OK - maybe not every, but too many. Virgin and Richard Branson spring to mind as well as Origin Pacific (founded by Robert Inglis, so admittedly no Tom or Harry), but there are many more. Add to that financially strong competitors happy to add the odd flight to New Zealand as well as airlines trying new routes (South America this time?), and what happens every time is that in good earning phases everybody tries to get a big slice of the cake.
Result: margins are rapidly squeezed given that there are only so many bums around but only full planes make money.
Which means ... in my view is the 500m profit before tax estimated for this year already optimistic (but possible, if everything goes according to plan), but the competition will heat up for the 2017 holiday season. I doubt, whether this means just a further 10% drop in earnings (as analysts seem to assume). Margins squeeze in the airline industry looked less friendly in the past.
How do your data look if you assume for 2017 the 500m (I am an optimist ...), for 2018 half of that - and for 2019 again only half of 2018)?
After that (assuming a 7 year cycle) things might move up again.
BTW - just made another interesting observation ... even the professional optimists (analyst consensus at 4 traders) predict for 2018 and 2019 that the AIR dividend will be below 20 cents. They seem to think that 2018 will be the low point, though. Not saying that I trust their consensus, but it is unusual that they are pessimistic related to popular stocks ...
Man up? Umm not sure what you want. I'm just tired of some of the discussion on AIR of late. Seems to be some that revel at others expense and dialogue of a nature I don't have much interest in.
That aside.
Having tried to catch the knife a few times and having bought and sold at as many good times as bad of late I am only just in the red including the divvy but not including imp credit. Best was at 2.02, 2.07 and 2.11 during Brexit but factor in carrying some losses from earlier buys on the way down and then clawing a fair bit back being smarter in some of the dips and recoveries I'm not sitting too bad at all. Also holding a third of my total at one stage which I'm comfortable with.
We all take our chances on trading and no one can see the future. All of us are human (some more so than others) and no one is right all the time although my wife would strongly disagree 😜
I'm keeping an eye on AIR, still have my own opinion of its ability to make good on divvys going forward barring an event some allure to which most stocks are not immune from think the FA is attractive compared to other similarly priced stocks.
Huxley posted this link on the kathmandu thread
http://theregister.co.nz/features/ex...an-do-about-it
He thought the trends be good for Kathmandu - but if 'experiences' like travel are where consumers are spending these days then all good for the likes of AIR
Lions tour next year - what an experience that will be for thousands of Brits coming to NZ. Lions tour impact was one of the highlights of the AIR result in 2005
Quote of the year: "no one is right all the time although my wife would strongly disagree"
Sold my AIR back in March at $2.87 and entered an order to be notified when SP trades at or below $1.80. Received that email today, much earlier than expected back then. Back on the watchlist now but still in a serious downtrend with no end in sight
pre-div low was @$2 so guess it will fall down to $1.65 as it's the support line. plz correct if wrong.
WD--You seemed to have taken the middle road that satisfies both sides of the debate --You havent panic sold--and you have resisted the temptation to throw tons of money at a share when its going down (atm)--I tip my hat to you--(or perhaps it is your wife who should get the credit:)..)
AIR has dropped about 33% give or take whatever in the last 2 weeks. Does anyone know what % drop it takes to trigger an FMA call out. ps got a pm from couta1 to tell me to tell bull to read thread 8936 and he still hold 50% of portfolio of AIR= 420k. Hope I got that right couta1. You could start up under another name if that was possible.
Black Peter "Not sure I understand what you are asking for? Traders and investors talk about the same thing, they just have different time horizons. However - no matter whether you are a trader or an investor ... it is always beneficial to buy cheap and to sell dear.
Or do you mean that hype should be limited to traders-only threads with investor-only threads being used to have the serious conversations? I think this would miss the point of creating the hype in the first place. Sure - there might be some inexperienced traders who are just "whistling in the dark", but I think most of the more experienced traders just want to influence their audience to push the SP up ... for obvious reasons. What would be the point if only other traders would read this stuff"
Conflicts of interest happen between short term traders and longer term Investors; different agendas time frames values etc; one pays tax the other doesn't or way less. its a disconnect like two different discussions going on at once with different endgames. With short term trading comes a lot more spin/ spruiking/ salesmanship etc; its the nature of their game and its to benefit them only..Spruiking and then selling while others are encouraged to buy (and vice versa)is normal practice and benefits the short term spruikers only.Newbies/naivebies can get sucked in.
Investors however tend to all benefit from the longer term sharing of analysis, T/A,knowledge and less agenda pressure(buy when I'm selling).This is the share trader community I'm here to participate, enjoy and value the most. Traders and investors are both a part of the Stock Exchange ops. A trading thread can specialise in in short term trading strategies or even day trading (more on the ASX) and spruik, up ramp, down ramp, spin their hearts out as its accepted practice. I note two trading threads on another site. A great outlet and far less conflict; but maybe I've got my idealist hat on and that the smell of money can overpower ethics and morals which may be one of the reasons a few folks on the AIR thread have been binned over and over? IF a trading thread caused less conflict and friction , less bans,I'm all for it. Just putting the idea out there.
Not too sure but dnt they call out if there's a significant change over a short period? For example, if price dropped by 10% in a day but no announcement? For AIR, it was like 3% a day (added) over two weeks lol. Maybe they are too busy working on Milford
I notice buyers starting to come back. Don't forget AGM this Friday.Get in now at these lower prices before all the positive news on Friday. The quick and the dead here:D. Come on couta and Roger time to av down.
Nature sends us signals in many ways and Fibonacci told us about his golden numbers
Jeez 178 was a 61.8% retracement level (from 2011 lows to high 326 earlier this year) - often said to be reasonable support targets or turning points
Fox - based on Fibonacci things we'll get back to at least 236 ..or maybe 326 sometime. Cant firget that AIR trades in multi-year cycles.
AIR has a mind of its own, it could go anywhere. Bloody rollercoaster has driven me insane with this stock.
Don't worry, we are all on the same plane, just hit a bit of an air pocket. I think a little sp rise before AGM could happen. If everyone settled down and stopped selling then the sp could go back up to 2.40 early next year pre 10c div time, then you will be 60c better off not including div. Remember next year is only 14 weeks away;).
I sold out at $3.020 back at the highs, thought I'd be smart and catch the knife at $2.70.. Actually makes me laugh typing this ha. But hey it's part of the game, live and learn. Done well in other stocks... Planning to ride this out.. I think.
But yes, agreed. We'll see next year.
Maybe just not man enough to need a wheelbarrow to cart my balls around in at the depth of some.
I have questioned the possibility of selling and buy back in once a bottom is more apparent but in reality have been surprised to see it get as low as it has. I shouldn't be surprised and some have picked it but I do make decisions on my own and that boat has sailed and I'm still comfortable with where I am sitting. Could have played it better but that's trading and it's easy with hindsight to say that now.
Hopefully corrected your quote now BP .
Sichuan Airlines have got the necessary approvals to fly Chengdu - Auckland.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I think in the worst case it could take up to 2 years to get back to $2.30. My reason for this is when looking back at the charts 2009 - 2011 low to high then fall again in 2011 and back to same level as when the fall started 2013. Still lots of nice dividends to collect & if they keep up then recovery should be a lot quicker.
What's happening here? AIR up 3c, is somebody sneaking in the back door looking for a bargain:).
If AIR had spent $300m on a buyback (instead of the special divie) maybe the share price would still be in the 220's ......or even higher .....hmm
But then I think it was said that a buyback was not in the 'best interests' of shareholders .......another hmmm
And QAN early on were buying more than NTA as well .....hmmm
5 cents by lunch time - very nice, another 5 cents by close please :)
AIR going up... something doesnt feel right lol
Yep cat is out of the bag, earnings for the six months at the top end of the range! (info from an Air Hostess I know) :)
"This is your Captain speaking. We have hit some minor turbulence, so are climbing to 600mill NPBT to ensure a smooth journey for the comfort of passengers. You may unfasten your seatbelts, and loosen your sphincters
Please do not take this announcement as a buy recommendation. Thank you for flying with AIR"
At this point I would usually roll out my old pinbar candlestick formation, but you're all tired of seeing that. ST reversal was put on alert on Monday, confirmed yesterday, buy the open today was the stock standard safe trade
Hey skid and Blackpeter - AIR's share price is on a roll
It's going great guns the last few days
Seeing you both talked it all the way down I take it you both now buying on the quiet eh ....and making big bucks
How long you reckon before back to 220
dow jones transports showing possible turn upside and the airlines are beneficiaries of this so we good be getting offshore folk buying up
What say all the TAers and their unadjusted price charts? What doom and gloom were they predicting last week??
I never talked AIR down ... I just happened to predict (quite accurately I might say) the share price movement before (and after) going ex-dividend.
I never said as well that it will stay down forever - did I?
Maybe you should save your glee for an occasion where you can prove me wrong, otherwise you might run out of it ...:p
Having said that - in my books the downtrend is still intact (SP well below MA50 and MA200), even if you adjust for the dividend. History will tell us, whether the current blib is just a dead cat bounce or a trend change.
Great time for traders, though (if you get the timing right) ... but that's not what I am doing.
Re 220 - no idea whether the SP will reach these lofty hights again. However - in the mid to long term would I still think that a continuation of the downtrend for another couple of years is more likely than a confirmed uptrend. Sure - a great summer season and / or the lions tour might keep the SP up for a while, but both won't stay around for ever.
Ha ha--(you are a stirrer indeed W-69) :) We may see some of the ole hands back soon--and so we should.
If your asking if Im now a supporter of dominating your portfolio with one share ,well you know the answer to that.
TTG-I have no idea if you really heard that, or whether stewardess are privy to that info ,but if it happens to be wrong some are going to be upset (and if true AIR could be in a spot of trouble?)
Still,they are on a roll and its all about results now---(I never argue with Mr Market---I was surprised when they didnt bounce when outside markets did though. Perhaps NZX was just in a bad mood at the time)
the answer to your question is the same as when you asked before about how far down :)
buy quietly? Nah to much uncertainty in markets in general--Ill leave that to you young bucks-Its not paramount that i take risks at this stage--Party on!.... but
(Id pay close attention to whether Trump is getting the upper hand(markets like Hillary),and the odds of Janet raising rates)---no one has a crystal ball,the best we can do is pay attention to those things that cause change......Well,maybe domestic stewardesses as well...
"TTG-I have no idea if you really heard that, or whether stewardess are privy to that info ,but if it happens to be wrong some are going to be upset (and if true AIR could be in a spot of trouble?)"
Not stewardesses but maybe senior pilots .... ;)
By now they will have a pretty good idea of where the half year will be, a good number of seats will be sold and the costs are reasonably well know.
But of course, assuming that we get an half year guidance the interest will be in whether we get a revision to that full year estimated range and any other comments.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
As per shareholder communication sent...
" This year Air New Zealand is offering all our shareholders, regardless of
location, the ability to participate in the Annual Meeting online at www.airnewzealand.co.nz/annual-meeting. "
Just to clarify, I asked the Hostess if she had been busy - she said flat out! I take that to mean earnings will be in the upper range. Let me know if you think there is a floor in my investment strategy :)
Im sure domestic is busy--no one said business would stop.
just returned from Queenstown..bloodly full flights....busy as....
I very seldom post on this thread anymore...but I felt this post had to be answered..
Old Guy you have to remember that AIR is in a primary downtrend and people will always comment negatively about stocks in downtrends because that is what is happening...It's reality...TA postings...tells you the current state of AIR... TA is the Messager of the "Now"... not a forecaster wearing a rose tinted VR head set
TAers see change as it happens..a bit like the weather...any change we mention it....TAers were last week gloomy as AIR free-falled without news (always a worry)..On Monday this week I wrote Post #264 Using TA to Time entries and exits thread...quote
The TA discipline is designed for portfolios to operate at maximum efficiency through optimum balancing capital rewards with risk...In other words TA discipline objectives is to keep the investor away from the frying pan and the fire and prevent emotional activity..ie greed, bias assumptions
Spose Air NZ is party to this rort .....but then again chris raves on about being environmentally responsible (he has to doesn't he)
https://newint.org/features/web-excl...ion-emissions/
Extract:
It sounds like a fine riddle: what can grow exponentially but still remain the same size? A new global deal on climate emissions from aviation promises just that, ‘carbon neutral growth’ from an industry that is the world’s fastest growing source of greenhouse gases.
Anyone from the forum physically attending the ASM tmrw in Chch? Especially some of our South Island friends...
This is quite cool from twitter. We should be proud our planes look so good
Vancouver Airport @yvrairport
Phenomenal photo of @FlyAirNZ soaring over YVR. Photo by @ItsCKRISTOyo