It certainly is a 'game of two halves' these days!!
(I liked the upswing today....bodes well for the next upswing.)
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that's a very strong close technically.. 4-5x normal volume. i would expect it to try the $11.50 area tomorrow.
Yes a very noticeable ramp up in volume on the nzx today. Tomorrow should be very interesting.
Haha some good money in it for traders. I have held and ignored, let the pros do there thing but not give up my shares. Yep I think people know high volumes with rebalance tomorrow means likely price increase that should last a few days then the trading might start again. Plenty of volatility and liquid which is perfect for short trades. However long term I believe we will see it head upwards
Good sign for tomorrow is that atm closed at its high for the day .....that’s really positive
This stock also followed other global food stocks and didn’t drop very badly. I found some egg stocks such as CALM, meat and milk stocks such ATM2 as are trading at PE ratio above 50? Can they sustain the growth? Don’t you think it is wise to go for attractive discounted stocks in the sector with promising future instead of extended PE ratio stocks? Yesterday after sometime I saw there was heavy demand for some global food stocks trading at great discount to the market. It sees time to avoid overextended PE stocks.
See the fundies been given heaps of extra time today to swap around their shares as part of the MSCI rebalancing
No doubt a fair amount of cooperation
Let the fun games begin today 😊. I have my popcorn ready
NZX wishes to remind market participants that extended trading will occur across the Main Board, Debt Market, NZAX and Fonterra Shareholders’ Market today, Thursday 31 May 2018.
Amendments are being made to accommodate the last trading date in advance of the MSCI semi-annual review.
Today trading will be extended per the below across each of the affected markets:
• the Pre-Close Session will be extended by 15 minutes, and will commence earlier at 4:30pm;
• the Adjust Session will be extended by 20 minutes, and will conclude at 5:50pm; and
• the Enquiry Session will consequently commence at 5:50pm.
If you have any questions please contact NZX Product Operations on +64 4 496 2853 or at: productoperations@nzx.com
Further information on the MSCI semi-annual review can be found at the link below:
Might be a silly question but do the fundies have to pick up its shares from the NZ market.
Over $11 already
Not a silly question.
Hopefully someone knows the answer.
On 29 May 2.4m traded on NZX, yet CBA picked up 4.4m ATM.
Doesn't seem like its from the ASX, but they probably swap funds around.
So far just a normal day at the office, maybe when asx opens it will get more interesting otherwise we can conclude that the buying was done over a longer period than just one day which doesn't seem like it would be in the funds best interests.
its going to be a long long day if tens of millions of ahares are going to be bought in hundreds
How many are required?
Someone posted 40m last week I think?
28m ATM traded in the last 10 days on the NZX.
And now its down!
I'm not buying into any of this MCSI mumbo jumbo. I've never known of a magic day where price goes through the roof. If there were such a thing, the price would have gone to the moon over the last month.
Hardly startyling volume at teh moment. 110,000 shares in an hour - going to take a while to get to 40m. SML low volume as well
its a good betting stock this one
Free lunches enjoyed in recent times. PPH NZX50 inclusion Dec 2018 - SP up just on 20%
CVT NZX50 inclusion some time back SP up 20%
If there's a free lunch lying around always trust a hound to find it :) Somewhere close to $12 by end of day's trading, that's my prediction.
Only SPH Notice - Commonwealth Bank of Australia so far......who are buying in last week?
"Who are buying in last week?"
Lots of us little"mumsie and dadsie" buyers maybe. I picked up some on the ASX and will shunt them over here at some point.
Can't guarantee 20% this time mate but keep an eagle, (rhymes with Beagle, sorry couldn't resist), eye on depth match pricing in the last 30 minutes of trading today. Could be some very "interesting and significant" price movements both positive and negative for various shares this afternoon.
selling off now you might need some of those hot ladies to take your mind of the coming carnage
.......going down. if ATM misses the full year target. we will be back to stone age.:mad ;:
Look at the size of those orders and all the shares seem to be heading lower
27,403,465 shares on the buy depth right now :O
Why are we in the closing mode before 1645?
early close because of MSCI index rebalancing. currently estimating a closing match of $11.25 but it is moving around all the time as people add orders. There will be $300m+ matched, I believe. Match completes as usual just before / after 5pm.
That's announced in the market this morning.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318737
Reminder – extension of trading sessions today
31/5/2018, 9:06 amGENERALNZX wishes to remind market participants that extended trading will occur across the Main Board, Debt Market, NZAX and Fonterra Shareholders’ Market today, Thursday 31 May 2018.
Amendments are being made to accommodate the last trading date in advance of the MSCI semi-annual review.
Today trading will be extended per the below across each of the affected markets:
• the Pre-Close Session will be extended by 15 minutes, and will commence earlier at 4:30pm;
• the Adjust Session will be extended by 20 minutes, and will conclude at 5:50pm; and
• the Enquiry Session will consequently commence at 5:50pm.
If you have any questions please contact NZX Product Operations on +64 4 496 2853 or at: productoperations@nzx.com
Further information on the MSCI semi-annual review can be found at the link below:
https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/49d039f0-e36b-a171-a1fc-0da8fbf6925e
Well that was well advertised. Not.
now showing $10.95 as estimated match price.
Hello,
Newbie here.
I thought I understood about the index fund requirement to purchase by today. I assumed that would be a positive thing for SP.
Can someone explain how this makes sense? Specifically the large sell orders at below $10? Are these just large existing holders that are using the large volume buying as an opportunity to get out without the price tanking as much as it otherwise would or what?
Attachment 9710
I think I've seen somewhere a post from winner announcing that. What other advertisement do you need ;)?
Here we go: https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post716627
and here is the source: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318737
now $10.87, which is where it was at 4:29pm, pretty much.
and volume of 48.5m shares for $527 million done at 10.87.
Mercury out of index, SP up
ATM in index, SP down
?
It's the end of day match process. orders left in or placed in it, all get matched off at the same rate if they cross. So the lower your offer, the more likely you are to get matched. But if there are more offers than bids, the average calculated rate used will be lower. As people see that though, they tend to place more buy orders, thinking, i'll buy them cheap down there. and that pushes the average price back up. all this time, the market is locked for trading.
it is explained in sec 6.9, page 30 onwards here: https://www.nzx.com/files/assets/arc...tions_june.pdf
Well, ATM is not really down - closing only one cent lower after trading 57,223,438 shares for $622,448,615. Who knows- maybe the efficient market theory is true after all :p;
No, but seriously, given that the news was very old indeed (announcement of index re-balance happened a month or so ago) was it clear that the players do prepare, which they did.
Well done to all participants to trade 2/3 rds of a billion dollars worth of shares of one company without upsetting the market.
May be a few folks who don't know this and it can be useful at times. You can buy a dual listed stock on the ASX in this case and get your broker to "shunt' it over to the NZX at no cost (for me anyway). If you've got $A you want to use up or occasionally you can buy ATM cheaper there or make use of a dropping $NZ etc.
Well well, what a complete fizzer that turned out to be.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by bull.... https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images...post-right.png
correct , thats why i believe it will be a non event or down as a surprise
Lower volatility and A2 go together like chalk and cheese, shorters will be keen to get in there now for another romp.
Shorters will appear when stocks appreciate strongly within the short period. There are two schools of thought on shorting. They went terribly wrong in many occasions in the current long bull market. I noticed they succeeded in some stocks over the last 18 months by shorting some stocks. When market players short stocks, intelligent investors will get great opportunity to buy quality companies at great price. For example some stocks dropped nearly 50% after hitting all time high. Global Investors grabbed attractive stocks from their both hands during last two days.
Investors will get some attention on this stock too when they see great value. Until then value investors will wait patiently.
Average Joe would be brave to short in the near term. Remember this past week + has been orchestrated and systematic. That gap was tickled but not filled even with that onslaught so I doubt it ever will. Most shorts would've been covered by closing. I'm picking a nice few weeks meandering and a new announcement before there's enough meat for the next attack. Skulking in the shadows waiting for near or new highs. Too risky otherwise. Will see what the new dawn brings I guess...
10.3% shorted yest , by volume.
yep looks like the msci rise was from 10 - 11 now its back to trend
MSCI Index inclusion is only good if it's going up. If it's going down, you now have ~10% of the shareholders selling down to maintain weightings... snowball sort of thing.
Realistic DCF valuation is only around $9.75 ....anything higher has really high growth rates lasting a long time.
Nut that’s only one opinion
The problem with trying to value high growth companies is that any valuation is highly dependant on how long the growth continues for. 70% growth for 5 years is hugely different from 20% growth for 5 years.
And trying to estimate growth rates is a bit of a guessing game.
I think you are right .....as I understand it the actual weightings of stocks in the index don’t change that often (might not be until the next quarterly change) So until then no impact on ATM or other stocks in the index.
But if there is a mass withdrawal from those index funds then selling pressure (of all stocks in the index) could ensue ....and that could trigger even more withdrawals etc etc
Not guaranteed correct - sometimes I’m wrong.
Totally agree...all depends on your guesses / assumptions eh
But things like DCFs are more robust guesses than doing the lazy way of guessing what’s an appropriate earnings multiple to come to a value
All we really know is that at the moment the consensus view is its worth just over 10 bucks ....how did the market arrive at that value?
Thoughts on picking up a handful of these at discount today? Or more blood ahead? Cheers
according to the fool a broker in hong kong has downgraded a2 to sell
Why are a2 Milk’s shares on the decline again?
Today’s decline appears to be related to a broker note out of Hong Kong investment bank CLSA.
According to the note, the broker has downgraded the company’s shares to a sell rating on the back of concerns over daigou pricing.
Unsurprisingly, this has also weighed heavily on the performance of fellow infant formula company Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL). Its shares are down almost 5% at the time of writing.
Should you buy the dip?
While a broker downgrade to a sell rating will always shake the confidence of investors, especially when it trades on such a high valuation, I do think that when the dust settles it could be worth considering an investment.
But I would only recommend making one if you are willing to invest for the long-term. In the short term the company’s shares are likely to remain quite volatile due to the bulls and the bears battling it out for control. But in the long-term, I can see its shares climbing notably higher from here as it expands internationally and gains more market share in China.
Investors might want to consider buying half the total shares they want own in the coming weeks, before picking up the rest after its full-year results later this year.
Well that MSCI business really did not go to plan, not that I am surprised. It wouldn't make any sense to the funds that have to buy in if it drove the price up significantly as it would likely trend back down and the funds would lose money....big boys don't like that. Exactly who was selling to who for the transactions to go through is a mystery as all after hours.
Questions now are:
1. Will it be less volatile with shares tied up in funds....going by today maybe not.
2. Will it fill the lower gap....who knows...it is a bug bear the shorters might be looking at.
Really need some good news to stabilise things but results not due for a while. Would like to see something from A2 on m bovis, are any farms infected and also an update on Fonterra deal....mainly around whether any new milk supply or is that more a synlait update.
Long term still good provided supply not hampered by bovis and no. of a2 farms
I see Snoopy's target is still in there ....but don't laugh because he might get the last laugh
All still on the high side ...but median looking more realistic bearing in mind it is target so should be 10%-15% less at this point in time
So under $10 looks about right ....just shows you outrageous the $13/$14 prices were