Thanks Hoop. I definitely won't be taking any of the Contact offer anyway.
Printable View
Any thoughts on how much of the sell off is by overseas holders?
One should keep in mind that the pullback of the NZX50C is not representative of the entire NZX market. The declines are very heavily attributed to MEL and CEN (which are unnatural drops), plus ATM and FPH.
Ultimately the NZX is likely to follow the SP500, which is at all time highs and just broken bullish from a bull flag. In my view this is a dip worth buying on selected shares (and no MEL, CEN and ATM are not those selected shares... yet).
Nikkei is zooming along. ASX with their stale "old hat" companies are doing ok even with profit downgrades.
NZX's place is between those two I think.
Can someone explain the link between NZX50 and US markets? US dominated by massive tech companies NZX by utilities, US powered by massive stimulus NZ by not so bad economic data and some stimulus.
I may be a bit thick. Why are these two so closely linked (excepting recent break)? They seem very different animals to me.
Sharemarkets will always tend to move in tandem in the short term - principally due to overall investment sentiment & international flow of funds.
However, there is the 'beta' factor at play too. Basically, NZX is described as a low beta market - it does not synch nearly as much to the US market as say, a high beta market like ASX which synch much more closely.
Yep, been a sea of red for me this week, except for Almonds; who'd have thought my long suffering SHV shares would be rising from the dead, here's to a favourable La Nina.
Far too much gloom around here with a few panicking traders investors ..............
"Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indexes rosein extended trading Monday evening after finishing strong last week.
Dow futures rose 250 points, suggesting an implied open of about the same magnitude, while S&P 500 contracts added 27 points, or 0.7%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 95 points, also a gain of 0.7%."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/15/stoc...lose-news.html
Fed’s Bullard doesn’t see asset bubble and doubts policy will tighten soon
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/feds...hten-soon.html
RBA’s Lowe is in no rush to taper
By swiftly announcing plans to double down on the RBA’s $100 billion money printing program beyond April, the governor has sent a clear message to local borrowers and international financial markets that he is no mood to taper the extraordinary easy money
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/r...0210202-p56ysw
RBNZ statement 24 th feb be a big shock if they stray from everyone else in there policy
Postings, especially some recent ones, reveal some on-the-edge traders here who dance to Wall Street & market daily gyrations, especially whenever markets go backwards - happy trading guys and gals but
1. Don't lose sight of the big picture &
2. Don't spend too much time losing sleep when you are invested in the market with your fingers nervously hovering above the 'Sell' button. Stay comfortable with your exposure level.
Big picture is plenty of free money being printed out there.
NZX50 could be heading to its worst month in 10 years according to Lister
@MarkListerNZ
The local sharemarket is having a difficult month, in contrast to offshore peers. The NZX 50 is currently down 4.1% in February. If nothing changed from here, that would be the fourth worst monthly performance in the past ten years.
Sector selection is very important unless you’re into ETFs tracking the index. Selective mode will find the opportunities but betting on the normalised index is likely to be unsatisfying imho
big day wednesday in NZ.
The RBNZ meeting.
very important meeting this for stock investors in NZ
NZ market is already up against it at the moment due to rising NZ dollar and rising bonds and at this time is the NZ50 is down 7.5% YTD the worst performing market in the world due to its yield focus which made this market outperform the last few years on the hunt for yield theme. anyway thats not the case anymore.
Its important as it will clarify weather the RBNZ will stick with the herd ie The FED , RBA The UK etc etc all who are printing more and going into inflation averaging. which would maintain the current status ,
anything different in my opinion will have far reaching outcomes for the dollar , rates , and obviously not very good for the stock market.
NZ dollar uptrend at the moment resistance at 74c odd opening up 78c i reckon.
Also bond rates will go much higher 2% resistance area
and of course stock market will continue to under perform.
Bear break of the 3885 level on the SP500 overnight, but zero bear follow through and quickly recovered. Healthy consolidation on tech stocks and sector rotation. Bulls are just too strong in this market.
agree , been long since 19th.
Attachment 12333
bit of a hammering again on the nasdaq and bitcoin getting a good pounding showing a negative divergence on the RSI. On CNBC they were raising some good points about ark innovation funds how concentrated they are in some stocks ... could be a worry if there a rush on redemptions as its so big now ? Can a ETF blow up ?
Bears finally got their break with a good flush down to the next support. Mostly recovered now so the short term bottom should be in. A drop like this doesn't really concern me as we are just seeing sector rotation, rather than money leaving the market. We have seen this exact same rotation a couple of times over the last year.
Are things generally massively overvalued? Unless you think interest rates will never go up again then yes. But whilst money keeps being printed it has to go somewhere.
Over time doesn't there become a point in time when printing money aka buying bonds is necessary to avoid the tightening situation of existing bonds owned by the central bank maturing and reducing money supply as the cash leaves the system. If i'm right, any idea when this tipping point is?
There is so much debt in the world that we can't afford to have rates increase. The only way I can see this ending is either rapid inflation that comes out of nowhere (highly unlikely - although everyone thinks this and usually the opposite of what everything thinks happens) or a loss of faith in currencies (i.e. people realise their money is essentially worthless if the government can just print more and more and never pay it back). Both of these would be very painful.
Would be interested to hear others thoughts.
As will the likes of HLG,FBU,KMD, any importer will do well with Kiwi trading higher. Market dynamics have changed quite considerably these past for months.Are you in or out??
We must be in Correction territory after another mauling..
anyone into gamestock up 100% today and up another 80% after hours
Yea, my 2 GME shares will have me into an auckland property in no time
NZX50 is into RSI oversold conditions on the daily. Most of the drop still being caused by the NZX10 (down ~15% from the peak). Some sectors really performing well (retail & financials).
I expect to see property relate stocks start to outperform again soon. Retirement villages more than commercial (as commercial property value is so heavily influenced by yield).
lots of theories why it jumped one being charlie munger ( berkshire ) talking about it this morning calling all the people in game stop gamblers with a mindset of a race dog. so they ran the price up to rub it in his face. the uncanny thing is it all took off around the same time munger was trash talking heaps of people lol
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/char...185123566.html
looks like short interest is 15% still so no
anyone interested in charlie munger ( berkshire ) 2 hr talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp4CvjNw-9Y
Fools gold GME, people just chasing what's been done and dusted. Some big sharks will be sitting in the tank waiting for this moment. Funny how so many people have made money from picking the social cues. Understanding other peoples reactions is certainly the big moneymaker in this game but a 50/50 gamble is what I have noticed. IMO.
Has the share market always been like this Bull or is it with all us new investors really messing with the system, funny how many newbie investors have no idea what they're doing or ever care to know. They just follow the crowds and it works for some.
Certainly not a long term strategy but for now some are winning.
in case no one picked up on it yesterday bond rates went thru the roof in NZ why cause grant robinson
heres a news on it since its big news the govt intervening on the RBNZ course of action again , i did warn that govt can make bad decisions as a market risk in NZ
NZ housing policy stand blows up the bond market
The New Zealand bond market imploded on Thursday as traders raced to price in a better-than-even chance of a rate hike coming as soon as this year, to ensure the central bank meets a shock Ardern government mandate to keep housing affordable
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-mar...0210225-p575my
now this could tank the NZ stock market you know why bccause we are a utility dominated market with bond rates going up you need to adjust the models , so with a higher discount rate these utility type stocks in nz are no longer as valuable as they were yesterday.
also keep a eye on the property market rules to come over the mths all these govt interventions in the market may have implications overall for the wider economy. the reason i say wider economy is because robinson maybe forcing orr to do stuff against the grain of other central banks policy. so putting nz out of syn with unintended consequenses
bad for utilities , property stocks as we are seeing with performance of these stocks last mth , up stocks over same period covid recovery stocks , retailers and financials for NZ
rising bond yields change the valuations for stocks such as utilities and property , adjusting up the discount rate ( bond rates typically used) up affects the value of cashflows and the valuation of the stock price. might even use a duration of cashflow for a property stock in the valuation. also the govt actions around property might mean you add a bit more risk in as well when assuming cashflows from sales etc on property. thats why these stocks all selling off valuations are being adjusted and risk/ returns changed.
retailers not effected by these things
financials generally benefit from higher rates
tech shares being sold of to based on the bond going up and the cashflow duration needed now to achieve profits for a lot of these companies
metals shares going up - reflation trade
covid recovery stocks going up as part of the back to normal trade
so nz down 10% this year probably based mostly on this bond yields going up.
of course things can change all the time but thats whats happening at the moment could be just a big rotation going on
[QUOTE=bull....;874039]
... so nz down 10% this year probably based mostly on this bond yields going up. ...
Some Questions:
What % of Kiwisaver portfolio is invested in NZ stocks?
Has this gone up or down over last 6 months?
Are Kiwisaver, ACC et al currently investing in NZ stocks, or selling?
Thanks
TV News tonight - on at the moment:
COVID-19
Auckland --> LEVEL 3 as of 6.00 AM Sunday 28 Feb 2021
Rest of the Country back into LEVEL 2
Good bye - Round the Bays .. etc
Monday NZX open could be interesting ..
Could be but in the last couple of clusters in the community, the NZX never reacted!
In saying that people are already panicked with the current stock markets down in the red, so you're right I have a feeling there will be a flurry of panic especially with some newbies down in the red and now another community case, possible cluster.
Ashley body language suggested this is quiet serious
Yes picked that up too .. may be due to the infectious non compliant bod was out & about
5-6 days in the community .. god knows how far it has potentially spread from that !
A few ignorant non compliant idiots out there = Millions or potentially upwards in losses + inconvenience to everyone else !
Ardern didn't sound too happy either with 'Rule Breakers' right under Health Ministry's noses .. ;)
Totally agree
Well there are no firebreaks if this takes off because our vaccination program has only just started (hopefully that now gets bumped into high gear) and we have almost no one who has acquired immunity the traditional way.
As for the market we've had a beautiful run since the Financial Crisis of '07-'08, longer than most cycles run thanks to very accomodating monetary policy and despite poor fiscal inputs and tepid productivity. I don't think too many could argue that when this one pops it hasn't delivered.
All that's left now if for Aucklanders to pack their bags and head out of town for a week before the 6am deadline.
Thanks Bull.
I have had a look with google.
My interest was whether Govt related entities current investment strategies and buy/sell actions may have any negative impact on NZX share prices in the current correction. (NZX is now minus 10% in 2021.)
Likewise the Cullen fund. (NZ Super Fund).
Google tells me eg. the NZ Super fund divested investments in 350 International oil/energy shares after alobbying from green interests. I accept it is impossible to know the impact, negative or positive of moves like this on fund earnings.
Most kiwi saver growth funds reference the MSCI global index as their benchmark so it's unlikely a high proportion of funds are invested locally.
Bleeding red is getting a bit monotonous. what happened to spring green?
nice bounce of important nasdaq support dragging other indexes up , needs to get over 13300
Certainly looks like the near term bottom is in. SP500 closed on a triple bottom on Friday, with bit of a capitulation on high volume. The size of this bounce suggests this most likely isn't just a dead cat bounce.
Got to remember that the Fed hasn't stopped printing!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...01-p576la.html
"As matters now stand, the Fed has lost control over US monetary policy. Investors are betting that the overhang of excess M3 money created since COVID-19 began
will combine with the Biden administration’s war economy stimulus - 13 per cent of GDP, including the pre-Christmas package - to lift the economy rapidly out
of its malaise.
Rightly or wrongly, they are pulling forward an inflationary implication. Futures markets have priced in a full rate rise in 2022 and two more rises in 2023.
This is self-fulfilling and will soon start rippling through financial contracts unless corrected.
Put another way, bond traders are dictating policy. They are tightening long before the Fed thinks the coast is clear. So much for the charming idea of
“running the economy hot”."
I wonder if gamestop indirectly has anything to do with this. Gamestop showed retail clients can move a market (or at least individual stocks). Perhaps now the insto's also wish to show they can also move the market, but this time the target is the us bond market.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...-probably-lose
Don't bet against the Fed.
Simple.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...-probably-lose
Don't bet against the Fed.
Simple.
Good to finally see a fairly settled day of trading on US markets. Exactly what I wanted to see after that run has happened - a drop down to set some higher low support levels. If we can break yesterdays high in the next day or two then we are in a very comfortable position again, with this drop just setting healthy weekly higher lows.
Can we fight RBNZ? Looking at the data this morning house prices and milk products, the cornerstones of New Zealand's economy, are running searingly hot. The Guv' seems to be caught flat footed if this is an indication of inflation.
RBNZ doesnt just look at inflation.
Putting up rates will increase the NZ$. Hurting the economy/growth/jobs.
The amount of money we need to print to keep in step with what the Fed is printing is crazy. Basically if the RBNZ wanted to push down rates they could print away.
It's not like QE causes inflation anyway
another day of nasdaq 100 getting a hiding dragging down the sp500 with it , due to rising bonds today. that rejection at 13300 setup the negative flow for the week.
the reflation trade still seems to be working trannies holding up with the dow
I have some reservations about using StatsNZs CPI as an inflation gauge.
I'll give you an example, with a little overview of many similar OECD countries:
- StatsNZ report that 28% of their index weight is attributed to "Housing and Household Utilities".
- The US Bureau of Labour Statistics report that "Shelter" and "Utilities" is 36.4% of their index weighting is attributed the same.
- In Canada that "Shelter" and "Utilities" figure is about 40.2% of their CPI index weighting.
- In the EuroZone (Household, Utilities and Communications) is 37.7% of their CPI index weighting.
A few years ago New Zealand published a series of shockingly under-target CPI results that just made no sense and sent me down the path of asking why are housing and utility costs would be so much lower in New Zealand than other OECD countries. My conclusion was that the methodology or implementation StatsNZ where using was likely very different to other OECD countries.
This sort of might partially signal why housing and utilities have been such high performing investments in New Zealand as well.
Tomtom - how do you measure NZ inflation? Have your own index?
I look at the tradables v non-tradables numbers, esp to get an idea what domestic driven inflation is
Like year to Dec20 tradables decreased 0.3%, and non-tradables increased 2.8%
Gave the overall CPI of 1.4%
Rapidly advancing technology is inherently deflationary. Going to be near impossible for central banks to generate inflation even with their super low interest rates.
That's why we are all going to have a universal basic income within the next decade (fiscal policy). :t_up:
USA already have it. They just call them "stimulus cheque's". and look- talk of inflation.
nasdaq getting a hiding again today , powell didnt suggest any QE to stop bonds rising .... markets tanked on the news. no more sugar ?
The Fed did this in 2019 and markets sold off so much that they came out and basically said, ‘ah don’t worry we were just joking, and ramped up QE’. Lots more sugar to come. Treasury’s can’t handle interest rates going up- everyone will go bust
oil has had a big rise today but this what caused the sell - off
Stocks Turn Lower After Powell’s Comments
Nasdaq falls nearly 3%, bond yields rise as investors digest Fed chair’s comments
By Caitlin Ostroff and Gunjan Banerji
Updated March 4, 2021 2:07 pm ET
TEXT
U.S. stocks dropped and Treasury prices tumbled as investors parsed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about the outlook for inflation and the central bank’s views on rising bond yields.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-...21-11614847492
Tech stocks are suffering fresh losses on Thursday, as spiking bond yields continue to spur investors to move out of cloud, e-commerce, and semiconductor stocks and into other more economically sensitive—and cheaper—issues.
times like these you re-learn its not so much about stock picks as overall market flows.
futures tanking again. nasdaq pulled everything up , will it pull everything down?
USA sneezes and the rest of the world gets a cold eh
gotta love the the big bounce on US markets friday right off some critical support and from oversold levels. lets see if it turns out to be a dead cat bounce.
testy times indeed. look at NZ cant even keep it up , after opening up 1% today it now in the red .... NZ really is out of favour at the moment. wonder why? no concrete plans on NZ future post covid? or is it all about the bonds or a combo of both
ppt in action friday US , ppt in action china yesterday ? .... wow must want new highs
USD topped out now? This will mean risk back on.....
I will sell again against the CHF if it goes back to 61.8 and 78.6 fib retracement levels on this
Attachment 12369
roaring again , now $342 triple your money since this post lol .... who said gme was dead lol
I dont recommend you get into this stock unless you have big balls and dont mind flushing your dough down the loo if things go bad haha this is the 9m followers play toy now
This will fall hard and I know some people in it who don't want to hear otherwise.
Are you in bull?
Down to $267 now?
$342, drops to $193 back to $267.
Wonder what will happen with these $1400 stimulus cheques.
What stocks will look to be part of the "to the moon" phenomena