We're not off to a good start. 10 cases in the first day is really UGLY, there's no way to sugar coat this. KPG looks very vulnerable to me. Very pleased I got out a while back.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...XUHINUWLQEAVQ/
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We're not off to a good start. 10 cases in the first day is really UGLY, there's no way to sugar coat this. KPG looks very vulnerable to me. Very pleased I got out a while back.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...XUHINUWLQEAVQ/
What vulnerability do you see? Worst case scenario we are in a month+ long lockdown and they have to give some rent relief to some of their speciality retail tenants - which is the same as what happened last year and the company wasn’t in any danger financially. Doesn’t really change the long term prospects for KPG at all. In fact with the resurgence payments now, it’s likely rent relief will be minimal, and also their growing office portfolio doesn’t have the same rent relief requirements.
I do not think that the risks are currently priced into the stock price. I have concerns regarding the valuations of the properties and therefore it’s asset value which will be under further stress with Covid and a property slow down which will happen. They do have some great assets especially Sylvia park and Lynn mall and the Dury development has the potential to add significant earnings. We only need to look at New South Wales to see how long these lockdowns could go on for. Apart from the rent relief that will need to be given to Tenants the longer it goes on increases the likely hood that some of these tenants just won’t survive. Comparing other property company’s that are trading at a premium to nav, I can only conclude that the market does not think the current NAV is realistic for KPG or am I missing something?
as stated previously could go on for a month and it now looks like auckland wont come out of this for a month.
north island will be level 4 for at least 2 weeks.
could see KPG under 1.10 or at 1.10 briefly.
Less than half of KPGs tenants are speciality retail stores - and they all are getting more financial support from government than they did during last years lockdown (wage subsidy + lump sum resurgence payments), meaning the likelihood of rent relief need to those tenants is diminished, as government payments are effectively covering all operating expenses this time round. The rest of KPGs tenants are office tenants (most of who are carrying on as normal working from home), government departments and essential stores that remain open (supermarkets, medical etc) - none of whom will require rent relief.
Anyway, looking past the short term dynamics, the market is forward looking and we know lockdowns are temporary in nature and extended ones will be a thing of the past once vaccination is in the 80-90%+ range by early 2022. We haven’t seen anything like widespread retail failures overseas, and we definitely won’t see it here with our government support directly to businesses. On the contrary retail activity is absolutely booming (if you haven’t noticed from earnings reports, NZ retail companies are reporting record revenue and profits) and retail will again be back to that level when lockdowns ends, with likely a big one off pent up demand boost again as all the deferred discretionary spending once again gets unleashed.
winner(n)
the difference between the other mob is that NZ just cut the transmission.
as a stats person you will know the next 7 days will show the geo spread.
You may have seen the full suited PPE on ONE news.
Going forward would want a full suite to shop and travel back to europe.
Probably the end of visiting crowded places in europe without some form of PPE.
Ok back to the 5 screens all busy showing multi threaded data.
I have well into seven figures in LPT's - and not one cent in any other shares, apart fom a relatively small amount in Milford Assets. Bricks and mortar assets will still be there, albeit through a few ups and downs, long after many trading organisations have folded. Besides I like the generous amount of PIE income I receive. 'It's set and forget' stuff.