Make sure u try shake n shack bull if your in east coast, seriously best burgers....
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Make sure u try shake n shack bull if your in east coast, seriously best burgers....
Teco ball back on the menu ... maybe.... in 3 years .... maybe ....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11160720
Pretty solid sales result announced yesterday. No comment on margins / profitability so that's good news.
Will keep the shareprice around the 3 buck level for longer
Can't see huge growth though ......Russell was pretty bullish on the radio this morning
So RBD still a solid performer churning out those divies
Winner - disagree. Huge growth potential if they get CJ right. Location is very important given high level of capex needed.
Will be interesting to see how they go compared to BurgerFuel who I understand are planning a big push in NZ this year.
Shake Shack, be prepared to wait in line 1 hour + to even get in if you go in Manhattan!!! I couldn't wait :(
But you KNOW it's good when that happens.
Apparently on their website you can see the queue as they have live cameras there.
RBD looks like it's going to drive right past $3.
RBD was$2 when they announced Carls 2 years ago. It crept up to $2.50 mid 2012 and when Carl's starting selling something price moved to $3 odd.
Does that suggest that maybe a buck is already 'built' into the RBD price at the moment .....or AR punters just looking at current yield and paying accordingly irrespective of what's going on? What you think?
Interesting that price today is about the same as a year ago .....price gone nowhere
Looking at Carl's growth I was surprised to see Q3 sales of $4.0m were less than Q2 sales of $4.3m .....eve though there were 3 more stores
Bit strange I thought
Interesting. Maybe they arne't doing as well as I thought. Looking at same store sales is also confusing - I assume it only relates to one week so opening week they earned $90k, now only earning $20k a week from that store. That is low, especially given the level of capex.
RBD very highly correlated with nz50 at the moment so as the index goes so goes rbd , sideways channel between 2.70 - 3 so maybe a punt around 2.70 if you think the index will bounce soon.
CJ always will have skewd sales as they rollout because of the high demend you get opening few weeks so probably need to look at how many they roll out each qurter to work out the skew
Yep RBD's second quarter is 16 weeks.
Rolling over one store's part week opening is not a particularly good indicator of the overall brand performance. The Carl's Jr stores appear to be doing an average weekly revenue that is higher than what has been achieved across the KFC network although on relatively small amount of stores. The EBITDA 20% target is more or less what KFC has been achieving over the several years that Russel has been in charge and now that the red ink @ Pizza Hut has been stemmed and some rationalisation of the Starbucks network then it isn't unreasonable to expect some growth in earnings year on year.
IMHO the competition has stepped up their game in response to Carl's Jr although Harvey's comment about a BurgerFuel store rollout probably isn't worrying anyone at RBD. Apart from one store, all of the Carl's Jr stores to date have a drive-thru with the capital build and revenue in a different league from a Burgerfuel store. It's a bit like comparing Nando's with KFC - BFW stores are more boutique compared to a mass market QSR like a KFC.
If you add up the number of weeks stores are open (like Q2 is 4 stores at 16 weeks and 1store for 4 weeks to give 68 'store weeks') and then take average sales per week per store here is the trend -
Q413. $82k
Q114. $62k
Q214. $64k
Q314. $52k
So Q3 was a bit weak compared to previous 2 quarters
Might keep this going to see what happens
So is $50k to $60k a week per store the going rate ..... Still quite a lot over 60 stores if they ever get there
There was a article in The Herald about the Auckland Airport Carl's jnr ........did it really cost $4.5 million to set up?
If you add up the number of weeks stores are open (like Q2 is 4 stores at 16 weeks and 1store for 4 weeks to give 68 'store weeks') and then take average sales per week per store here is the trend -
Q413. $82k
Q114. $62k
Q214. $64k
Q314. $52k
So Q3 was a bit weak compared to previous 2 quarters
Might keep this going to see what happens
So is $50k to $60k a week per store the going rate ..... Still quite a lot over 60 stores if they ever get there
There was a article in The Herald about the Auckland Airport Carl's jnr ........did it really cost $4.5 million to set up?
The carls website lists 16 stores ....yet sales repo says 8
Have they opened the other 6 in the last week or so?
There are two franchisees for Carl's Jr in New Zealand. Forsgren NZ obtained rights that totalled 8-9 stores in Auckland, RBD obtained subsequently the rights to open 50 or more stores in NZ incl Auckland.
The $4.5 million was for the Carl's Jr and the adjacent KFC store also operated by RBD
I think the 16 does include the non RBD ones it lists the Henderson ne and that is Forsgren rone
So the $60k a week doesn't quite give $200m a year over 60 stores, but pretty close to it
All we need is to work out how much they can make out of this ..... with as Snoopy says all the unallocated costs sitting in HO admin which in reality will be extra costs directly related to Carls. I just have a feeling that it will not be as profitable as some say it will.
In theory Carls should be a game changer and take RBD from a 300m company to a 1/2 billion company. Haven't had much success in the past with game changers have they ..... but this time is different eh
Snoopy has been there several times over the years and what he posted a few pages back always echos in my mind - Does this not sound like a recipe for more cash in to get less cash out?. Was talking about KFC (I think) but has applied to RBD over the years
So maybe just a little bigger dividend is on the cards in a few years time .... double I doubt it