might well have some support on fundamentals i.e yield differential which is still quite high.
Printable View
might well have some support on fundamentals i.e yield differential which is still quite high.
you're right there Peat, there's been a few hundred mill to be bought for eurokiwi and uridashi issues this week, and I'm hearing the market is structured short too, so it does need demand to reduce before it'll slip away. Ironically, the best thing for it may be a huge short squeeze.....
Seeing the short squeeze now - this could get nasty if it can get back up through 6805 - would retest 6870 again.
Broken out of the triangle (clearly) to the topside now, so expect some follow through, but keep a clear perspective on what Greenspan is going to come out with over next 48 hours - if he's more hawkish than market is pricing in, then the house of cards on all pairings should collapse
For NZD - resistance around 6800, stops above 6805/10, heavy resistance at 6870
still sell break of 6715....
Xerof
Platform news from a couple of hours ago - me a bit slow tonite
A correction higher for [NZD/USD] is underway as a UK name is reported buying, this following French based bids yesterday. 0.6720 has provided very good support this week and is becoming something of a downside range parameter as it protects 0.6690 stops just below. Nzd/Usd's sell off last week came amid a sharp decline in NZ bond yields as demand far outstripped supply, however CB repo operations put into force this week have smoothed this and allowed yields to return to slightly higher levels, thus providing short term NZ$ support. The overhang of stagflation as NZ growth slows despite strong price pressures is a drag for the Kiwi however, as is the potential for a change in Govt in upcoming elections. As such sellers remain keen into 0.6800-30 and should cap rallies.
Has strong resistance right here around 6870/75, but if this breaks, next resistance will be 6905, 6930, then 6990
MACD's are positive in short term charts, but still very negative in weekly, so this is still a countertrend rally/consolidation IMO
Line call on whether it peaks here....watch other pairs for confirmation. A late Friday short squeeze would come as no surprise....
Xerof
yeah a bit naive to think it would go all the way down without taking a breather
looking at the calender September has a lot of events and data releases, if we got a procession of bearish events and data for the NZDUSD could venture into 65/sub65
[e.g. FOMC, RBNZ OCR, NZ BoP, NZ Ca/c, US GDP, NZ GDP, US CPI PPI, etc]
for the mean time best i get some studying done ;)
Well, a half hearted attempt to break the strong resistance at 6875, only getting just above 6885.
Safe to stay/get short now IMO
[NZ WEEK AHEAD] June's trade balance features Wed alongside NBNZ's latest biz outlook, but overwhelming focus will be on Thursday's OCR review. The multitude of soft data which has emerged over the past few wks favours RBNZ unanimously keeping it's cash rate unchanged at 6.75% when it releases its review at 21.00GMT. Focus will be more on whether RBNZ eases back on its extremely hawkish views. But this is highly unlikely; with the undercurrent of domestic and housing price pressures present within Q2's CPI, set to see RBNZ retain its strong tightening bias and reiterate that any easing is still a long way off. Mkt pricing is pricing ard a 15% chance of a rate hike next Thurs and seen implying a full 25bps rate cut in the second half of 2006.
NEW ZEALAND] Trade deficit widened out to -NZ$522m in June vs a revised NZ$-61m deficit (piror -NZ$25m) in May, causing the annual deficit to deteriorate further to a record -NZ$5.18bn from -NZ$5.05bn in the yr to May. Figures were broadly in line with forecasts, with both exports and imports seen falling on an annual basis to NZ$2.56bn (-5.1%) and NZ$3.08bn (-0.3%) respectively. While the rate of increase in imports is slowing, they remain well above exports. A trade deficit is thus likely to persist in 2005, consistent with the current account deficit expanding to around 7.5% of GDP for the yr to June 2005.
hmm, some good bearish news there.
though methinks 68even will be a barrier, held by tomorrows' RBNZ announcement
could be good for a risky play... if RBNZ does nothing and says the same ol then maybe the risk of RBNZ will be priced out... [I dunno i don't care either i have options, just casually watching and waiting for now]
Despite their 'independence', the RBNZ won't change rates until after the election now...not the done thing Jeeves...IMO wouldn't have raised them anyway. Statement should not hold any surprises - still biased upside if inflation gets out of hand - any easing still long way away.
back to sleep....nurturing a short at 6830, 2 units, but its tedious stuff
Xerof
its becoming less tedious[:p]
Took half short back at 0.6776...RBNZ outcome as per last posting, but now means interest rate differential vs US to narrow when FED raises.
Downtrend still intact IMO
yawn really - action elsewhere with Ruskies and Chinese throwing their weight about in majors by the sound of it
it's getting lonely here - where is everyone?
Xerof
studying
just finished reading:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/bul...2hareddell.pdf
(yawn) - though it does have a few interesting tidbits about exchange rate forecasting - however often cedes to long term forecasting being easier than short term (well duh!)
Spending most of time on International Finance, and Banking Studies. so all is not lost ;)
Selling Kiwi at .6945 if we get there, with a stop at .6970, targeting .6500 area in killer wave 5
Xerof
Xerof
I'm getting .6985 as a top on the daily
61.8 retracment of the June/July drop, also meeting the top of the downtrend line at that point.
What time scale are you getting your wave 4 leading into the killer wave 5, dailly?
Cheers
slam
Just worked your count out, Daily?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by slam
Xerof
What time scale are you getting your wave 4 leading into the killer wave 5, dailly?
Was that messy abc on the sub that got me[:I]
Cheers
Slam
Morning All
There is an intermediate Gann resistance above at 6958.
Should that break, there is a Major Gann level slightly
higher at 7080. (Which also coincides with a 50 Fib of
the last major down move from 16/3 high, or 786 from the
recent June high).
arco
I'm seeing the daily MACD positive and still climbing even tho the Stochastic Oscillator is now venturing into overbought territory. Kiwi could well go higher, and I'll be looking for SO to turn downward (for it to do so twice would be good) and then more comfirmation from the Parabolic SAR
Slam, yes off the daily. The level I have is actually .6955 being the end of wave 1, therefore should be top of wave 4
In terms of time frame, I would like the end of wave 4 to be 5 minutes after I sell:D:D
.6955 is a mere half spread away from Major Gann's advance party as mentioned by Arco
These markets appear to be getting very illiquid as the northern hemisphere summer gets into swing, so will be watching action around the level before taking position, in case progress is directly higher
Xerof
Peat, your lady at Jinxedbank and TRL must have been at the same party:D:DQuote:
quote:. ** NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR/US DOLLAR - MEDIUM TERM VIEW **
August 5th,.6895 -- Kiwi's probably undergoing broad corrective recovery
back toward the .7000 Resistance lvl then the mid 7100's,before Reversal
yeh, drinkin from the same punch bowl i guess
she added her comment at the end of a peice about the CNY reval
"Furthermore, I expect a renewed upside potential on both AUD and NZD - as exponents of the commodities currencies. The Chinese revaluation will hardly put a damper on exports. Therefore, the demand for commodities will not be affected; it may even increase, as a result of rising Chinese purchasing power. Consequently, I expect AUD/USD to return to 78 and NZD/USD to return to 71.50."
Certainly looks like continued $ weakness for now tho the Ozzie and hence the AUD/NZD rate have faltered.
Well, smack me as you would a red-headed stepson, but I think this Kiwi is going higher.
Playing out a very large triangle on the daily chart, and is right on resistance now. Only resistance above here that I can see is at 6998, being 61.8% of the mid-June to early July decline, then fresh air until 7200 (100% fib ret)
Hmmm - thinking about it, but hate trading August....
Xerof
Well, most of the sellers were being taken out as I wrote the last post 36 hours ago around 6950, and here we are, 140 piparoonies higher.
Still another 100/150 upside for this puppy IMO....if the data tonight doesn't favour USD...although lately.... who's been caring about the data[^][^]
Nice start to NPC by mooloo, but usual messy handling woes in season opener
Xerof
hmm, carrying on down I see...
hmm, is that a triangle on the daily?
Hello Z
Possibly. I'm already short in anticipation.
The highest recent close at 7074 was not a million
miles from the Gann 7080 resistance figure I gave
on the 4/8.
First point to look for a little wobble - 6836 ;)Quote:
quote:..........there is a Major Gann level slightly
higher at 7080. (Which also coincides with a 50 Fib of
the last major down move from 16/3 high, or 786 from the
recent June high)
Trade well
arco
yes... the Danes I get information from (jynskebank) have now got a short on the Kiwi (from Fri @ 0.6980) with a target of .6750. It never reached their upper target of 7150 tho....
you were right about the 6836 mark being pivotal arco!
Hi Peat
Yes if you want a little more technical info
there could be a margin of error of about 29
pips on that Gann level 6836 (6865). So
between those figure for the wobble.
+45 as of this moment.
arco
Currently we can see the hesitation on the Gann support
area mentioned, with a recent low of 6867 being only 2
pips from the margin or error figure I gave yesterday.
Short + 62
a lot of upward pressure on this tonite!!
Arco any idea about a top for this latest run?
IMO there is a possibility of 7308-7324,
with the overall target zone between 7178-7324.
Prepare for some retracements in the run up.
7200 in a week
As I mentioned on the 6th
I think there could be a fall to the regionQuote:
quote:Prepare for some retracements in the run up.
6958/6965/6991 before we see a reversal north again.
Target after reversal 7308-7324 with 7202 possibly
forming some resistance.
arco
Thinking this one may have turned early, maybe helped by the AUD turn.
See how the Asian session goes
Cheers
Slam
would seem to be confirming its turn now.
Taking it's time this pair.
Sitting on the 38.2 fib from the last up.
Seems to have support here
Cheers
Slam
next 2 weeks are going to be interesting, very data/event heavy
the main things that have potential to move it include:
15th RBNZ -if they do something unexpected (change rates)
17th Election -if something unexpected happens
21st FOMC -if they do something unexpected (change rates)
21st Current a/c -if it 'blows out' (which probably it will...)
probably good to be warey of such dates if you're trading NZD