Still not showing on the Oz board as an announcement. P$ss poor!
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Of all the mornings for ANZ to launch their new site. Firstup I am getting ANZ announcements fine, then google decide they are spam and I don't see NTL announcement. Then ANZ site not showing Asx announcements which they remedied about 15 mins ago.
Any way, there is the sniff of a rights issue in the announcement, and we all know what happens leading into one of those:D:D:D:cool:
is anyone else scratching their heads as to the lack of movement this announcement caused?
Yes Bucko, I am somewhat bemused. It's far better than their earlier deal. Maybe the hint of a rights issue has put people off, but leading into those the price normally gets pumped. It needs the Oz listing to wake up to it.
Equally odd are those wanting to bail at 1.4. Each to their own I guess
I hate to say it, but some of the traders out there who managed to pick up share at 0.9, or even 1.0 have made a pretty penny already (wish I was one of them), probably with the short term expectation that share price will drift back down to the 1.1-1.2 range again soon, only to make another few hundred/thousand.
You are right, true value will be when gold is coming out of the hole.
And the ANZ is willing to take on the risk which much add to the optimism. We just now need regular (no more than monthly) feedback from NTL as they progress towards production and some success stories. Start with the very easy pickings and get some nugget images into the press!
Their goodwill (or should I rename that badwill) must be almost gone judging by the shareprice activity of late. Maybe just maybe a little punt is worth it at this stage for a trade. In for a few (on the bid at 1)
Sounds reasonable to me blackcap. I'm already in heavily at an average of 1.15. Looking at the volumes of those wanting to exit the announcement certainly brought out the sellers rather than the buyers. The old adage of the market being irrational longer than punters remaining solvent springs to mind. I think the sp story will be very different a little down the track, although Landymans 10 bagger might be a wee bit ambitious by my reckoning. Nice to dream though!
I had run some numbers and a risk free valuation just prior to the Chinese offer but was abruptly put off from considering any investment at that time not just because of the nature of the Chinese offer but also because management were actually considering it for a while there.
Revisiting it now on yesterday’s announcement, I’ve a risk free valuation and sensitivity analysis on the first stage development as below;
I wouldn’t contemplate buying into a junior gold mine start-up with greater than a five or six year payback and thus I have no focus or interest in second stage development economics at this time, each to their own risk management approach within this sector.
Basis: WACC 13%, PG at FY20 3%, 32,000ounces extracted over five years at US$750/ounce.
NTL Stage 1 Risk Free Valuation Gold Price $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 Valuation 0.5c 0.8c 1.2c 1.6c 2c 2.4c 2.8c 3.1c
Risk aside, it seems priced to perfection about here ?
If anyone has alternate analysis I’d be interested in comparing notes with others as usual, online or offline ?.
many regards, Mac
Hi Whatsup,
I always use an NZD base, so gold price in NZD, valuation output in NZD, 0.85 exchange rate applied on US$750/ounce COGS.
At the present gold price of US$1,200/ounce (NZ$1,412) my DCF valuation on stage 1 is 2.02c, so around 102% upside from present SP.
At a gold price of US$980 (NZ$1,150) my DCF provides a breakeven valuation at 1.0c.
A forward gold price of US$980 is a possibility if we do enter a secular bull cycle. This seems though to represent a break even level for a lot of operations internationally and so may also though represent an industry floor ?
Forward prospective movements in gold price aside, I'm still weighing up the risk vs reward position on NTL, interested in your thoughts and others too ?
regards, Mac
Regards to news the other day - If Chinese investment is all but shot dead, then NTL could always try and get local capital via managed Kiwisaver investment companies backing them up in the future.
One example off the top of my head was Milford buying Burger Fuel shares. There will be countless others.
It would be good for NZ as a whole to tap into local investment funds instead to bring back them billions and billionswhich could be spent on improving NZ'ers quality of life.
MAC, from what I can see your valuation is based only on current proveable resource at Talisman and hasn't allowed for what they will find once they get digging. Also what about the Australian assets?
Absolutely, there is a lot of potential there and all the potential in the world for the company.
Gold mining is a risky business, even JORC reports are no guarantee that the resource will prove to be actually economically recoverable although I do commend management in pursuing that level of work up.
It's just a methodology for me that I don't value forward revenue streams until they become, not necessarily proven, but 'shovel ready' let's say.
Gold price is a factor too and consideration of a 5 to 6 year payback is about my risk tolerance within this sector. Most small start-up gold miners do go bust, and for reasons that may not have been anticipated at the get go.
I'm positive on NTL though, they have a big future IMHO, they’ve worked up the pre-feasibility well and ticked all the boxes thus far.
I'm teetering though as to the risk/reward position at $0.012, I need to brood some more.
Rights issue announced - well picked by members on the forum
Can someone with more experience in rights issues explain how rights trading will work for NTL?
You can buy rights from others, or sell your rights, then pay .8 of a cent to NTL to convert these to shares? Yes?
Good or bad?
It would seem that the rights can be traded:
so you can sell your rights - at this stage it looks like the price for the rights could be 0.2c each so if you have 30,000 shares you will get 15,000 rights which if you sell them at 0.2c each will get you $30, deduct the $30 brokerage and you have $0 left.
If you buy rights (at 0.2c each) then your broker will take 1c (0.2c for the right and 0.8c for the new share) from your account.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Ok, so, if I sell half my holding at 1 cent then I can buy it back at .8 ;)
Right? :)
MAC your numbers are all over the place.
What relevance is discount to dilution????
Assuming NTL raises fully therefore being a producer and funded suggests this pricing is cheap as chips!!! harly derisking a little where the shares issued are back by CASH!
No matter which way the company is valued be it economically mineable resources - aka reserve, dcf basis on near term plan which was spoken at the AGM it appears great value at 1.2 and even better for at .008!! .
32,000 ounces on your pricing previous = how much per ounce in ground? current values appears to rate a measured resource at a higher $$ figure in ground value and well higher for reserves in ground which improve as a company closes in on mining. add back to that a pricing on in ground resources (not reserves) and comparative to peers such is undervalued. There was a table in one of Talismans presos which had this I just cant find which one it was a few years back. As another member pointed out a holding in listed entity on ASX and an unlisted explorer and it just shows how cheap this offer is to shareholders.
I do agree it is commendable that in a short space of time this company has seemingly transitioned from an explorer with very differing skillsets to a very skilled management team able to attract continued investment and progress a project while many many projects are closing down in this market.
I do hope we can apply for overs in the issue. Shareholders are the clear winners by a country mile in this!!!
DYOR - HOLDING NTL, NTLOA, NTLO
If your shares had a share price yesterday at $0.012, then the 50% dilution and the discounted price they are offered at today, means they are worth by calculation around $0.010c upon share issue, or, they are worth whatever the market deems they are worth following what is a de-risking event.
How well you do will depend on what the market perceives the value of NTL to be following this event, the SP is holding up very well following the announcement today at $0.010 so far, although few buyers seem to have fled.
Some caution is warranted though as it is a rights issue in the companies favor not necessarily directly in the investor's;
Compare this rights issue to that of CRP a couple of weeks ago, which IMHO, already had a much better risk/reward position than NTL;
NTL: A 50% dilution at a 38% price discount.
CRP: A 10% dilution at a 60% price discount
Edit: Per good advice from Jonu, share value by calculation is $0.010 and not $0.006.
New Talisman advises that it intends to make a rights issue offer to existing shareholders in Australia and New Zealand of one new share for every two shares held at the Record Date on payment of NZ$0.008 or AU$0.008 per new share.
Where do you get 50% dilution from?
Yes, for every two shares we will have the right to purchase one more at 0.8c (same price for holdings on the asx and nzx). It is better value if you hold NTL.nzx. If your holding is on the asx, and you want to take up the rights, you could ask Computershare's Investor Services (e.g. Charmaine Bartlett in their AKL office) to first shunt across your head shares onto the nzx.
Umm, yes apologies, you are correct a little too, it is a share dilution of 50%, the SP will still devalue as the dilution is substantial and offered at a price lower than the VWAP. I’ll humbly go back and edit my post.
I'm thinking about taking up the offer. What about you cats?
Probably, but without any cat involvement :sleep:
frankly ide rather us get the spoils by funding NTL than a bank!!!
I can't do simple maths percentage, so don't ask me.:D
It was intended as a comparison of prospective rights issues and the relative incentives offered for investors not necessarily a comparison of companies ......
NTL: A 50% dilution at a 38% price discount.
CRP: A 10% dilution at a 60% price discount
Though, CRP as I understand, are also actually dual listing at present in the UK, they also have a JORC resource, they also have a mining permit and are working on a consent, they are also presently expanding reserves, their resource was also substantially explored a few decades ago, and they also anticipate production within a couple of years.
Actually, it all sounds really not too different at all now that you have pointed it out aside from relative fundamental valuations.
;)
I think it looks ok on balance having kicked the can around, I'm still cautious that the risk/reward position is not as good for NTL as I would like it to be for a start-up miner at this stage, but if you are an existing holder this rights offer looks fine at $0.008. I think the SP may appreciate a smudge in a few weeks on the de-risking too.
best wishes, Mac
cant measure prospective rights issues without comparing company and projects.
Oddly it was your comparison of companies, although I noticed that you deleted your post, I wish you well with whatever investments you may wish to make epithermal.
I'll consider posting the relative valuations for you.
Yes as one cant compare simply a discount without looking at all facets of a company its projects. I think newcrest and rio tinto hardly discount at all does that make them on your measure a bad investment MAC :p
I deleted the irrelevant portion in answer to YOUR proposed comparisons.
.....on your own valuation premise .8 is well below your rudimentary gold valuation yet you also post that its not a good deal for SH.
Which is it?
Looks like the sp has held together well boys. Seems the Nz market likes the discount MAC.
Moosie is going to get two superyatchs and major a larger grander cave full of tuis now after entitlement gets NTL producing with the funds!!!
And to top it off looks like the cobalt company is moving along with a major project.
Looks to be an article on NBR online about this company, sub ran out so cant read it
When does the rights issue get listed on the ASX? Its trading here as NTLRB but I cant find it on asx yet.
Cheers
Thanks for that.
Trying to get my head around this Rights issue. On reading the offer doc it would seem you simply choose which currency to settle in so perhaps this does not disadvantage Aussies holders afterall?
But I'm puzzled about how trading of the rights commenced May 7 when the record date for determining entitlements is 7pm tonight 9th May?
How are people selling rights that have yet to be allocated?
There's not much support for this rights issue, is there? NTLRB are now on offer at 0.1c.
Last month the head share was trading at 1.5c. Have company fundamentals worsened? No - in fact, IMO they have improved. That Chinese proposal if accepted would've sucked profits out of the operation to the detriment of shareholders.
Come on folks - invest in this local gem. It's not a lot of gold but it's ours - let's fund what's required to get it out of the ground.
Discl: holding a few with every intention to take up my right to purchase half as many again @ the very good price of 0.8c.
I'll be taking up my full allocation...
So the rights did not sell at all so does this mean the head share price returns back towards where it was pre the rights issue? Depends on how many shareholders exercise their rights I guess but the lack of interest suggests we will not have a great number of additional shares issued and the 0.8c is very cheap come next Tuesday. The gold is still there and I'll be looking taking up a good proportion of my allocation if only to help get the show on the road.
Sorry to be lazy, but....
is the 28,800 Oz of gold in the offer document the total reserves for the mine? Any written information available on possible upside?
As the downside to growing debt, printing money and thereby devaluing fiat currencies becomes more obvious, precious metals will grow more popular. Sub $1000USD/oz for Gold? You have to be joking, Moosie. More likely, by October we'll see the PoG over $1400USD. I'll be applying for, and buying, my new shares @ 0.8c later this week. There's future wealth for NTL shareholders in digging out of the ground what belongs to us.
So the rights trading never kicked into life. So what? Take up your right to invest more into this venture, our company, at a good price.
I have taken up all my rights and applied for 50% more. Application has been sent in.
Gold is very interesting but I feel gold will win out in the end. It has just been around thousands of years longer than these fait currencies and now printed money. Also like the idea that the mine is already there and for me just down the road. If these guys can not make it it will be hard to see how any gold mine can be profitable. The current flood of new shares will depress the market for awhile but if things get going anything like the 9 months shown in the prospective to profitably then the future will be rosy.
Not angry Moosie, just unconvinced by JP Morgan and others talking down the price of Gold given the huge debts and sorry state of the USA and many other nations' finances. We are in unchartered territory and it will take very little to trigger uncertainty and then fear, which yes, is good for the Price of Gold.
I agree that key supports have been broken but don't be surprised if you see a rally tonight (Thursday). Last night's drop was only $5.
Re NTL, I'd much prefer to buy now whilst market sentiment is low and this stock is out of favour, than later when it's appealing to many.
BC
Interesting discussion.
For pog falling below 1200 to render ntl valueless BC is ridiculous.
Read the offer document. It all comes down to the margin between the cost of production and gold price.
From memory ntl has one of the lowest cash costs out there due to such high grades.
Hi All,
Back after a extended revamp of everything! Got a lot to concentrate on at the moment other than my investments.
Good to see moosie is still about after my 3 months (ish) absence! people come an go on this forum without any indication!
Good to see some people still holding NTL.
The forums would be empty without you!
Just as an indicator to get the ball back rolling for me, how many of you took up your rights? Or bought more on market?
This looks like it could go one of two ways, either we secure enough funding to start or we are still dead in the water without enough capital.
I'm taking up all my rights as well as subscribing for a few extra shares. The grades are good and I'm happy with the price.
BC
I'm less concerned about the price of Gold remaining below $1200USD than I am about NTL's rights issue being a flop. There was virtually zero market interest in buying the rights on either the nzx or asx...and that's not a good sign.
BC
I think you'll find they did, but then the market price quickly dropped.
Pre-Chinese Deal flop and CR announcement: 1.5c
Soon after CR announcement: 0.8c
With dilution considered, I would've expected it to drop no further than to around 1cps. But it is what it is, and I suspect that the extension to Friday 6th has less to do with Queens Birthday weekend and more to do with the Directors hoping that the extra few days will bring in more capital.
Absolutely agree moosie as you have said multiple times. Any issue is a red flag for sp to head towards. They stated % discount in announcement.
Saw an interesting read on NTL http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.hk...w-zealand.html
They are currently up 10% to .9.
That appears very positive and shows pog not making any difference to NTL.
Blackcap out of interest just given your constantly down ramping are you an original heritage holder?
Can understand being bitter and twisted but NTL appear to be doing well.
Hi Epithermal, I am not down ramping if that is how it appears. I have had some shares in Heritage a long time ago and got out around the 5 cent mark. Call me an old cynic but when has this company "ever" delivered? So no not bitter and twisted just skeptical. As I have said before on this thread if memory serves, I hope they do well for current holders... just do not see it happening myself.
But saying that this stock is "up 10%" to .9 is meaningless. The bid offer/spread in itself is 10% and the volume of shares traded minimal.
Your an old cynic so it's all meaningless to the thread.
Seems you only jump on this thread to drop in negative comments on a stock you once held which appears pretty downrampy to me.
The rights shares have been allocated and are tradeable, but they haven't notified what they are doing with the extra applications yet. I applied for 500k more on top of my rights.From memory about the middle of the month they were to allocate the extras (if any).
Allotment and issue of new shares is scheduled for this Friday. Somebody bought a bundle up to 1.1c on the nzx this morning which was a bit odd. They could've purchased them on the asx for 0.8c.
$638k raised. I'm hoping that's enough to get production underway 4th quarter as planned.
I applied for more than my entitlement, and trusting those with enough gumption to take a calculated risk with this local miner have done the same.
Seasonal demand lifts the price of gold July through September. I'm picking that within 2 months many people are going to be kicking themselves they haven't bought these at 0.8c.
It does look very tight. Have you contacted the company secretary on this, yankiwi?
I just have, and will post their reply (assuming I get one).
Must... Not... Photoshop...
http://www.watchdog.org.nz/uncategor...-our-mountain/
I'm not worried. It runs for 25 years from the commencement date of 3 December 2009.
The other stuff you refer to? Well, it's not the end of the world, is it?
Clause 4 of the full documentation only requires NTL to "make all reasonable attempts to undertake the word programme in accordance with the permit." - http://www.nzpam.govt.nz/services-dr...9&p_access_no=
Could be up for debate, but I'm sure so much as bending over and picking up a rock is mining as far as the placard wavers are concerned. From that perspective, mining has begun.
Here's NTL's reply...
(I've written back asking them to inform the market of its drilling schedule.):
"We are aware of our permit conditions as are publicly available to you our shareholders.
We are unable to provide you any information as any information must be provided to all shareholders not individual shareholders seeking information.
Thank you for your support.
Kind regards
Matthew G Hill
Executive Director
New Talisman Gold Mines
Really dumb question, humble apologies, but my DB (now the ugly blue ANZ) shows me with a TRADABLE_RIGHTS_CONVERSION on 3 June 14, seems I got 1 share for every 2 held - I cant see any "news" that shares were issued on the day. I have been a long term holder, so may be just getting rewarded for being loyal?
Can anyone advise?
I had to read your question several times to see what you were getting at. Then the hard part was to think what you were thinking to try to see what you were seeing.
It seems you believed that you were getting one new share for every 2 shares you held. This is completely wrong. What you got was the right to buy one new share at .8 of one cent for every two shares you held.
But as robbo24 says that is now in the past and the ship has sailed on that one.
By the way most did not take up this offer to buy one new share for every two held so you are probably not much worse off that most holders. Maybe in time you will be better off if the company does not get production underway.
That is the strange thing - for varying reasons I couldnt participate in the issue, however my account now says I own 50% more share than i used to and that it was free, hence my average price has dropped. This was not something I enacted through my account, so some other entity has changed it (maybe ANZ have just stuffed up). ie I used to own 1,000 shares at 5c each, now I own 1,500, at 3.33c (made up numbers, I hold a few more than that).
That also happened to me, I don't exactly remember how much I originally had, but the average cost price has been lowered quite a bit and I did nothing to it, it just changed by itself which kind of makes it confusing. If anyone knows why this is the case please do tell.
Go into 'movements' next to the portfolio entry for NTL. Then either:
1. If you never took up the rights, delete the entry corresponding to the new issue, or else
2. Update the price you paid - 0.8c - and check the volume.
Thanks Bobcat - will do. Im more interested in how the change came about in the first place, I'd hate to sell what I dont have.
I believe ANZ securities take up rights in your portfolio automatically. My dad thought he had a lot more ATM shares for this very reason and sold a few more than he should have. I checked later and called ANZ and they confirmed that rights issues in their portfolio system show up as if you had taken up the rights. Hope this helps. Caveat emptor.... always check with the registry who are the final arbiter of how many shares your own.
All good information, thanks all - pleased to see we still live in an imperfect world where assumptions are the mother of all evil.