America will never allow it. But is that not what China and Russia want..... Eurasia a massive trading block.
Printable View
Not what Putin wants.
It's clearly in both Russia and Europe's interests. Russia although backwards currently has some good scientific achievements that would benefit europe combined with the large landmass buffer vs China.
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZSenALx17/
The hypocrisy of the war mongering US in action.
Putin told Biden his ideas do not tackle main Russian concerns
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ns-2022-02-12/
The US senses weakness in Russia's negotiating position, despite all Putin's amassed troops and is refusing to buckle under this time...
An interesting bit of analysis...
No, Russia will not invade Ukraine
A large-scale military operation does not fit into Moscow’s cost-benefit calculus.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...invade-ukraine
[QUOTE=Panda-NZ-;941201]If russia joined the EU and the russian economy was comprehensively reformed from Putin's mismanagement then Europe would be the number one world power even eclipsing the united states./QUOTE]
Some quality thinking has gone into this...!
Global Strategy 2022: Thwarting Kremlin aggression today for constructive relations tomorrow
Atlantic Council
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cont...iKGRS1fSO3Udl4
Putin Whisperer? (Finland - A Republican model for NZ also?)
He Knows Putin Well. And He Fears for Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/13/w...tin-nato.html?
Hybrid warfare?
Russia may dodge sanctions by using Putin proxies to invade Ukraine
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...SX-2jvVrtxZrix
How a Russian invasion in Ukraine could disrupt life in America (& in NZ)
eg S&P 500 dropped 17% on 1990 Kuwait invasion
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/14/i...ion/index.html
Russia blinked - for now...
Wall St climbs on Russia's de-escalation
https://thewest.com.au/business/mark...tion-c-5711338
Until the ice melts then that's when its safe.
Then... ukraine can join Nato six months later.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...anoeuvres.html
One big bluff by Putin & he has achieved his objectives without firing a shot.
Its been a warm winter there is not much ice...
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/08/e...ntl/index.html
See - enough here for both sides to claim victory. and thats a good thing.
Balance and his BFF Putin get to say how shrill America & nato was and claim victory as Ukraine acknowledges they won't become part of Nato (something that was already apparent)
The yanks get to say they stood down Putin down and got him to blink through deterrence and delegitimizing any context for invasion.
It's as good an outcome as one could hope.
If Putin actually withdrawals (a big if), it seems he retreats with a far worse position than he had previously. Nato is far more united than before, Ukraine has far more weapons that before and closer regional security ties with individual nato members. It looks like putin blinked.
The real winner is NATO.
Its got more customers than ever before.
Investments in Euro tech companies is on the increase and New Intel Chip plant in the US.
The big winner is Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and French state-owned defence company Nexter Systems.
With Sweden and Finland likely to join next manufacturer's will be the next big winner.
Its a Buy and the software firms who build the next generation of tech for NATO's new buying list.
Software might will be the next big thing in Europe. Investment dollars in Germany in software is increasing.
And Charlie M has just stated a balanced portfolio if looking for egg in your beer...
Only drink French Champagne and not sure what Egg in Beer tastes like...
NZ market in for a rough next 6 months.
Always good to keep up to date...
Ukraine crisis: Nato considering new battlegroups in eastern Europe after ‘no sign’ of Russian de-escalation – live
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...nvasion-threat
Russia Crisis Military Assessment: Ukraine invasion could happen with less than 12 hours’ notice
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...-hours-notice/
Its good to see Europe moving away from America.
"Europe can't defend itself anyway"
actually not true.
Russia it appears has limited operational capacity and while it has missiles and lots of tanks it AIR is limited.
Europe is a much bigger place then people realise and once the russian move outside their boarders they would have to Blitz and they dont do Blitz.
They dont have a Walter Model.
There best planner is a conductor in St Petersburg.
Air superiority is one thing, but don't know how effective that is against Russia's S400 systems.
Might come down to whose EW systems are better.
Sadly - battles appear to be won (if ever that could be said to be 'achieved') by ground forces in the end, with overwhelming numbers from the Russians.
Not this time...
and no battles in modern war fare are usually won from the who ever controls the air space ...
Europe at present is weak but that will change now.
The Russian's have woken up Euros the even the FIN's and the SWED's..
Money will now be dumped into euro arms manufactures.
The UK is now joining the new tank project as an observer.
Big money to be made in this sector now defending europe.
NZ needs to up its game or declare its self out of game and just keep its head in the mouth of the tiger..
Maybe buy some more canoes..
NZ policy is now made in other country's..
NZ no longer has an independent policy and never really had one to start with.
Absolutely agree with you on NZ's policy being made elsewhere, NZ dropped the ball 40 years ago, particularly on Defence matters.
It has trouble maintaining manpower to run its 2 lousy frigates, let alone no air-force with strike capability - you're dead right Waltzing. People are leaving the army in droves also, they still think in terms of fighting a Vietnam era war...
As for independent policy, on defence we were always a tiny cog in the big US dominated machine (as is Aussie). Never independent or Neutral (that would cost 5 times as much at least!)
however...
To understand Putin's aim in Ukraine, look at this US base in Poland - NYT (via NZ Herald, good article)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/to-...HLZ52ZKZCWD6A/
Fair enough.
To me, Ukraine was part of the USSR and a buffer against NATO before it broke off from the USSR. Just like Cuba was part of the US sphere of influence until it turned communist under Castro.
So the Russians see a former ally becoming a potential threat just as US saw Cuba as a threat.
Not sure why NATO (ie the US) just doesn't declare that the Ukraine is never going to be included in NATO. It's never going to be - everyone knows this. Just one simple statement and the crisis is over.
I am enjoying the surge in commodity prices so I'm feeling conflicted ;)
Russia wants more than a statement.. they want some kind of guarantee (not that I'm sure what the difference is). But yeah, Russia feels surrounded and rightly so. They've asked how the US would respond if Russia and China started encircling them with military positions. I don't get why they just don't agree that Ukraine will never be part of Nato — and yet is still considered a close ally and will be protected as such. Ukraine remains independent and safe in knowing that Nato has their back. Russia feels less threatened and won't have US missile systems surrounding their boarder.
Why do countries feel like they benefit from NATO.
Maybe since Russia is aggresive and ruthless and can change that position at any time and focus on cooperation instead.
People need to ask why the recent large energy deal between Russia and China will be paid in euros. And not the Ruble or Yuan which they can currently use.
Separate talks - 2 track talks if you like, one with the Europeans, a 2nd set including the US. Germany has already agreed, or been strong-armed by the US, into sacrificing any agreement between itself and Russia over Nord Stream 2, if Russia attack Ukraine...
The US will usually get the final say, as they are the guarantor of European security.
An internal coup is the best and cheapest option. You can't use nukes on your own people.
Though the Putin regime will probably conveniently lose some of these weapons to anti western terror groups if he is ousted.
04:08 GMT (17:08 NZDT) Guardian report:
"Estonia says battle groups are moving ahead in a likely attack to occupy “key terrain,” contradicting Moscow’s insistence of a pullback, Reuters is reporting.
Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian foreign intelligence service, said he is aware of around 10 battle groups of troops moving toward the Ukrainian border, where it estimates about 170,000 soldiers are already deployed.
The attack would include missile bombardment and the occupation of “key terrain,” he added."
**Hope the Guardian & Reuters verified this**
From Reuters 8.56 am NZDT (Full-text of original news item)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...an-2022-02-16/
Here’s why the US is war mongering against Russia over the Ukraine :
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-cri...about-germany/
It’s all about driving a wedge between Germany & Russia before these two countries get even closer from an economic & political point of view.
Thanks for sharing Balance, I have been looking for something like this
Same scenario plays out in multiple countries
Libya & Iraq wanting to change the price of a barrel to Euro to exchange
Syria pipeline to Iran
Venezuela?
China and Russia now exchange oil and energy off the US dollar,
Russia reserves more gold and less US dollars, im sure China is taking the same stance?
Ukraine should decide their own future.
Not even russians want vlad.. ie without the stuffing ballots and state run news etc
But what does America really think about the EU..
Victoria Newland said.... **** the EU.
And the French submarine deal with Australia which the Americans turned over, Which really pissed the French off.
Which all points to Europe, excluding the UK moving away to trade with the east more.
Why post stuff from a trashy right-wing conspiracy theory website? Why read trash, let alone spread it? Do you think that America fought in WWI, WWII, and the cold war to separate Germany and Russia? That is clearly a load of codswollop. By the time America became involved in WWI, the Russians were busy having a revolution and Germany's war with Britain and France was at a stand-still while Germany was slowly being pushed to collapse. The Americans only turned up at the very end.
It's very clear that Russia is the aggressor today (it has already annexed Crimea and is working on chipping away at Eastern Ukraine and has now amassed an invasion army on Ukraine's doorstep) and America is rightly resisting that aggression.
The UK will only be able to have a Free Trade Deal with the USA on American terms. If the British diverge too far from alignment with the EU, necessitating a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, then Congress and Irish-American Biden won't enter a deal with the UK. The UK has made itself into a bit of a neutered mouse on the World stage.
Some 101's in the current build-up...
Twenty questions (and expert answers) about what’s happening with Ukraine and Russia
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...55DD7oz4_KiKQJ
Make your OWN assessments of RISK & prepare to (possibly) hunker down...
Market Recovery from Geopolitical Events
Days Between Event and S&P 500 Recovery to Pre-Event Levels
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/8724580/embed?auto=1
PS Left-off graphic. Pearl Harbour attack S&P500 recovery was a little over 300 days...
"This suggests that sanctions, not the threat of invasion itself, may be more of a tangible risk factor for the international economy. Escalating measures on Russia, as telegraphed by the United States and its partners, will make waves if they target major Russian financial institutions and debt markets, impacting both Russian markets and their Western creditors. The architects of these sanctions will calibrate the rollout of these measures to minimize the impact on US and European stakeholders, but if the Biden administration responds forcefully to Russian behavior, it will be asking global citizens as well as firms to share the burden. Russia’s major exports, hydrocarbons and minerals, are internationally traded commodities. Restrictions of supply (or anticipated restrictions) will send fuel prices upward, whether this is due to the sanctions themselves or, more likely, Russia’s retaliation. This will be felt at the pump and, shortly thereafter, in the prices of everyday goods, as shippers pass operational costs onto consumers."
—Julia Friedlander is the C. Boyden Gray senior fellow and director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative in the GeoEconomics Center, and a former US Treasury Department official.
From Australia, Peter Dutton in the Guardian
9m ago 21:28
Russia is on the brink of an “all-out conflict” in Ukraine, according to Australia’s defence minister.
Peter Dutton told Australian broadcaster, the Nine Network, on Friday:It’s tragic and we’ll see terrible scenes unfolding.
You would expect that President Putin, who obviously can’t be taken at his word, is manufacturing some sort of trigger, or is in the process of executing the final stages of his plan to go into Ukraine.”
Dutton said while European leaders have attempted to prevent a conflict in Ukraine, he believed Putin was intent on military action.
That really is going to result in the loss of innocent life.
We’ve seen it before in eastern Europe, we don’t want it repeated but we live in a very uncertain world.
This is an issue Nato and Europe need to deal with and those European leaders really need to step up and put the pressure, even more pressure, on Russia to stop them.”
The defence minister said Australia has not been asked to provide troops to Ukraine, should there be any military retaliation.
But will the European leaders step up.
Australia does and says what the US tells them to
Hope you have your hedging strategy in place...
https://www.politico.com/newsletters...g-for-00010238
Looks very grim. I am >70% in cash.
Sounds interesting. Would you please post some more details about that ?
I agree that the Russians have mobilized so many forces, weaponry and logistical and support capabilities war is inevitable.
Just a question of when, not if and the when looks very soon.
What shares I have a fairly defensive and / or GARP stocks but I expect to take more of a hit nonetheless.
BBUS/BBOZ (asx listed) or direxion/proshares (us listed).
Here’s what you need to know: NYT (Paywalled)
- Biden says the U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine.
- Call for mass evacuation by Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine is an ominous development.
- Putin has already weakened Ukraine’s economy.
- The U.S. says Russia’s troop buildup could be as high as 190,000 in and near Ukraine.
- The U.S. will give Poland 250 tanks in a show of NATO unity.
- Germany suggests the Nord Stream 2 pipeline won’t go ahead if Russia attacks Ukraine.
- A timeline of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
- On the ground: In eastern Ukraine, people know the price of war all too well.
NZ - Just have PGW, TWR mostly plus 1/3 cash
AU - Just have FMG (steel rebuild), FYI (Batt tech) and 1/3 BBOZ (~ x2 inverse ASX200 leverage)
Expecting FX hit will help balance exporter capital hits / cash flows
Watching Guardian / NYT (subscribed) + Financial Times Alerts, Politico, Atlantic Council, UkraineAlert Daily also like many people I guess...
Kyiv to be targeted
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...19-p59xw3.html
To Russians and a lot of eastern European's they do
Biden (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/18/joe-biden-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin
Note the metadata is 2 days old already...
I think there is more people on this thread who breathlessly harp on about Russia's shortcomings without reflecting on America's. What is clear that neither the US or Russia care about the people of Ukraine. They both are playing geo-political games. That is why defaulting to one side or the other and refusing to accept that the situation is very complex and both sides have legitimate concerns, is naive and politically gullible.
Obvious to most people that Putin doesn't care about the people of Ukraine or Russia,unfortunately the Russian people can't express their opinion.
Well, yes, but you still don't add the obvious adjunct that Biden doesn't care about the people of Ukraine either. And when the US military want a war, it doesn't really matter what people in the west say either - plenty of examples of that too. Our media is too poor to be able to question anything that comes from US led media outlets, so it is up to us as individuals to at least have a questioning mind about the main stream media narrative. Unfortunately too many people just jump on the peace-through-war misinformation that is fed to them.
I happened to be in America in 2003 just before the USA invaded Iraq and went to several protests against the war, including one where I got tear gassed (I remember reading at the time that tear gas was only deployed at 3 protests in the country - how lucky I was to be at one of them).
I was against the United States invading Iraq. If Russia invades the Ukraine, I'll be against that one too.
That logic makes sense to me. and I would have thought all those who are aghast at America's invasions would be aghast at a Russian invasion of Ukraine, too.
Anyway, this whole chain is getting massively off track. Being aware of developments and discussing the impact of geopolitical tensions on the equity markets is the point. But perhaps an off market forum would be better suited for the invariable who is to blame, the frothy anti americanism/russianism, the complex history involved, etc.
To True should not be on N Z X not a lot of relevance .
What was this election all about then?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019...ntial_election
I agree with most of that, but being aghast at a Russian invasion would mean also trying to find a solution that doesn't encourage that from happening. I don't see any sign that the West is prepared to even consider, for example, capping NATO to it's current level. That's a small concession in the context of avoiding a terrible war. The West is essentially saying "we defend Ukraines right to join our club and we will defend it to the last drop of Ukrainian blood."
And how many countries actually have a real choice? The US population basically get two choices handed to them, often a poor choice or no choice. Was the last one any better than Xi or Vlad? Nup. People don't want war. Companies do, mainly US companies at that.
SO you're saying the end justifies the means? Remove a sitting Government by force and then hold a new election (one in which the East of Ukraine didn't turn out for) and somehow all is forgotten? I think you know if the situation was reversed and it was a pro-western leader removed by force by pro-russians who then generously said they would hold new (rigged) elections, the US wouldn't be calling that legitimate.
Russia won’t invade.
If they do invade I will go out and buy one of those big fluffy Russian hats and post a video of me eating it.
Max investment max debt 😃
In recent weeks, Western intelligence has taken center stage as US and British officials especially have gone public with what they know (or believe they know) about Vladimir Putin’s plans. In the latest installment of the Atlantic Council’s Britain Debrief podcast, former MI6 chief John Sawers praises that approach—even if it’s based more on assumption than fact.
But he also tells host Ben Judah that the Russian strongman has already banked some gains by forcing the West to seriously consider Russian security demands.
"What role is Western intelligence playing in the Ukraine crisis? || A Debrief from Sir John Sawers "
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...RAgCfFdhTXaJJ-
Logically, they shouldn't further invade Ukraine (they have already invaded) given the cost from the response the West has clearly telegraphed it will take and the military cost given the size and determination of Ukraine and the material support now flowing in from surrounding countries. The probable cost seems too high. On the other hand, Putin is fixated on asserting control over Ukraine and without sending in the tanks, that goal is only going to slip further from his grasp. Also, although he has constantly said he is not going in, withdrawing now will look like weakness. Authoritarians cannot afford weakness. I'd say its better odds he will invade than that he won't.
Markets have almost already priced in Invasion ....just a spike down part left ...which will come or mayn't ...With US President shouting every day Invasion coming ...I think it may turn out to be damp squib if eventually it comes also ...most likely it wont as Russia will try to prove him wrong and enjoy the moral upper hand in their own minds . But market do believed US President's conviction its coming ...so now more chance of pleasant upwards surprise then downwards shock .
Maybe smart money is positioned for that only ....its them which will decide eventually market direction ...My money is on upside surprise out of this invasion sea saw now ...after so much of propaganda or warnings from the highest level possible ie US President himself saying he is CONVINCED that it will come next week ...after He was sure its last Wednesday !!!
He said he is sure ORDER has been ISSUED by Putin at last media briefing ....
The situation seems pretty bleak. The "invasion" is in progress already: Crimea taken, donbass invaded; hugh forces on the border; escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine; sham "evacuation" of civilians from Eastern Ukraine; Belorussia and Russia blaming NATO for the inevitable war... Putin will likely gamble he can win quickly and that the West won't go the whole hog on sanctions (lets face it, the West talks tough, but their actions are dictated by their wallets). If Putin is right, tough for Ukraine, but it probably won't have a lasting effect on the market. If Putin is wrong, the slaughter won't be restricted to the battlefield - so I guess we should hope Putin is right?
Meanwhile, in our "backyard"...
Pawns of the Pacific: Region becoming increasingly caught up by US-China geopolitical struggle - Lucy Craymer
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/chi...tical-struggle
Again, that is just saying if Russia isn't a full democracy then it is ok for us to support other countries that also trash the democratic process. Doesn't make sense. We all know that it isn't about democracy - or we should know by now - it's about geo-political influence. The US plays the sovereignty of nations card when it suits. Neither the US or Russia ultimately care about the Ukrainian people. Both of them should be condemned in turn for not finding a compromise that will avert tremendous suffering to the Ukrainian people. Can't help but think if that the West had actively discouraged the coup in Ukraine - instead of encouraging it - the Ukrainian people would be much better off right now.
[QUOTE=Davexl;943053]Meanwhile, in our "backyard"...
Pawns of the Pacific: Region becoming increasingly caught up by US-China geopolitical struggle - Lucy Craymer
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/china-and-nz/300504115/pawns-of-the-pacific-region-becoming-increasingly-caught-up-by-uschina-geopolitical-
struggle
Yep, and Got help us if the Ukrainian crisis paves the way for some sort of security alliance between Russia and China, similar to the NATO alliance. There is already signs of the two countries coming together - China has condemned the expansion of NATO eastwards for example. The West is not thinking strategically here - China is a much greater threat going forward. We should be trying to work with Russia for them to become part of a mutually beneficial European security alliance that would replace NATO, rather than keeping to the sort of Cold War mentality that plays into China's hands.
Already happening.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily...a-and-the-west
When Putin first came to power he wanted to join NATO. Where would we be if the US had said yes?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia...hi-2022-02-18/
EU worried about energy supplies?
Might have missed this...take a look at the link...#848
Make your OWN assessments of RISK & prepare to (possibly) hunker down...
Market Recovery from Geopolitical Events
Days Between Event and S&P 500 Recovery to Pre-Event Levels
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/8724580/embed?auto=1
PS Left-off graphic. Pearl Harbour attack S&P500 recovery was a little over 300 days...
"This suggests that sanctions, not the threat of invasion itself, may be more of a tangible risk factor for the international economy. Escalating measures on Russia, as telegraphed by the United States and its partners, will make waves if they target major Russian financial institutions and debt markets, impacting both Russian markets and their Western creditors. The architects of these sanctions will calibrate the rollout of these measures to minimize the impact on US and European stakeholders, but if the Biden administration responds forcefully to Russian behavior, it will be asking global citizens as well as firms to share the burden. Russia’s major exports, hydrocarbons and minerals, are internationally traded commodities. Restrictions of supply (or anticipated restrictions) will send fuel prices upward, whether this is due to the sanctions themselves or, more likely, Russia’s retaliation. This will be felt at the pump and, shortly thereafter, in the prices of everyday goods, as shippers pass operational costs onto consumers."
—Julia Friedlander is the C. Boyden Gray senior fellow and director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative in the GeoEconomics Center, and a former US Treasury Department official.
From the Guardian:
49m ago 01:25
Hostilities in eastern Ukraine have disrupted water services to more than 1 million people in the region, according to the international committee of the Red Cross. The committee called on all sides to spare infrastructure that is essential for the survival of communities. A statement reads:
"The recent intensification of the fighting in eastern Ukraine has again put certain key essential services at risk of coming to a full stop.
In the last two days, at least two major pumping stations in the Donetsk region serving more than 1 million people on either side of the line of contact with water, including hospitals and other crucial services, were “rendered inoperable by the hostilities”, the ICRC said.
Civilian infrastructure providing essential services are protected under International Humanitarian Law, Florence Gillette, the ICRC’s head of delegation in Ukraine, added."
And with our Aussi mates...Few more details with this article...
Chinese guided missile destroyer aims laser at RAAF surveillance aircraft
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...19-p59xwx.html
So now we know...via the Guardian...
6m ago 03:26
US President Joe Biden’s confidence about Russian military action came from US intel about an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to senior administration officials.
The Washington Post writes: (Verified) https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...nich-zelensky/
US intelligence that provided Biden with the confidence to make the assertion came from an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to several people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.
The United States obtained intelligence on the order as Russian military and security officials were taking steps to implement it, and did so very recently, the people said.”
Some European allies have questioned the United States’ conviction that Moscow will launch an attack, saying that they have not seen direct evidence suggesting Putin has committed to hostilities.
From the Guardian...
1h ago 18:29
Truss says Putin 'will not stop at Ukraine'
The UK’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said she believes Putin “will not stop at Ukraine”, arguing that he is looking to piece the Soviet Union back together.
Truss earlier told a security conference in Munich to get ready for war.
This is the most dangerous moment for European security since the 1940s. We need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Russia has shown they aren’t serious about diplomacy.”
Truss, speaking to the Mail On Sunday, said the west needed to stop Moscow in its tracks or Putin would look to “turn the clock back to the mid 1990s or even before then” by possibly annexing the Baltic states – such as Estonia and Latvia – and the western Balkans, which includes Serbia and Albania.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/fran...ndtv_topscroll
Hope still is alive !
Playing catch-up here!..."Russia might be willing..." below...
5h ago 15:32Putin and Macron agree to try to secure ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and urgent summit
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-...ormat&fit=max& Patrick Wintour
Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron have agreed to try to secure a ceasefire in the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, and to put together an urgent summit at the highest level on the future of Ukraine, the Élysée Palace said in a statement.
The two leaders spoke on the phone for 105 minutes, and the outcome, broadly confirmed by the Kremlin, suggests Russia might be willing to step back from the brink of a full invasion of Ukraine to allow renewed diplomatic discussions.
The French foreign minister, Jean Yves Le Drian, will meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in the coming days to work on a possible summit at the highest level with Russia, Ukraine and allies.
The Kremlin suggested the meeting would be held in the Normandy format, meaning the participants will be Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany.
It is too early to say if Macron has pulled off a last-minute diplomatic coup, or if he has the full support for his initiative from Washington and London. So far, most of his moves have been coordinated with the White House.
It was also decided that a meeting of the trilateral contact group would be held “in the next few hours” in order to “obtain a commitment from all the stakeholders” to ceasefire on the line of contact.
The purpose of the leaders’ summit if the conditions are met, would be to define a new order of peace and security in Europe,” the French presidency said.
The Kremlin said Putin had expressed serious concern over the sharp deterioration of the situation on the line of contact in the Donbas.
The statement added:
Taking into account the acuteness of the current state of affairs, the presidents considered it expedient to intensify the search for solutions through diplomatic means through the foreign ministries and political advisers to the leaders of the countries participating in the Normandy format. These contacts are designed to help restore the ceasefire and ensure progress in resolving the conflict around Donbas.The Kremlin insisted Putin was not withdrawing any of his wider demands saying Putin “reiterated the need for the United States and Nato to take Russian demands for security guarantees seriously and respond to them concretely and to the point”.
The statement added that the escalation in the Donbas was blamed by Putin on the provocations of the Ukrainian security forces, and he complained of the supplying by the Nato countries of Ukraine of modern weapons and ammunition, “which is pushing Kiev towards a military solution to the so-called Donbas problem”.
Updated at 4.05pm GMT
Here you go. From your favourite rag as well....:)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...on-in-his-rule
Still playing catch-up! bare with me...
3h ago 18:10
US still believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, Blinken says
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/201...ormat&fit=max& Ed Pilkington
US president Joe Biden’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Sunday the US national security council would meet to review the latest intelligence on Ukraine and “check plans”.
Blinken toured the TV political shows to press home the Biden administration’s message that the US remains convinced that Russia is poised to invade Ukraine.
“As president Biden said, everything we are seeing tells us that the decision we believe president Putin has made to invade is moving forward,” he told CBS’s Face the Nation.
Pressed to give details of why the US continues to believe an invasion is imminent despite repeated Russian denials, Blinken pointed to what he called “provocations” and “false flag operations” that could be used by Putin to justify overrunning its neighbour.
Russian-backed separatists have increased shelling in east Ukraine in the past few days, and Blinken said that could be used as a pretext.
“Now we have the news just this morning that the ‘exercises’ Russia was engaged with in Belarus, with 30,000 forces, which were supposed to end this weekend will now continue because of tensions in eastern Ukraine – tensions created by Russia.”
Blinken’s interviews came amid a swirl of diplomatic activity that offered little clarity about what lies ahead. As the top US diplomat was warning that Russia was moving ahead with invasion plans, Vladimir Putin and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, were agreeing to push for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
Amid a swirl of claim and counter-claim, CBS reported that according to US intelligence actual orders had been given to Russian troops amassed close to the Ukraine border to proceed with an invasion.
Read Ed Pilkington’s full story from New York here:
Blinken: US still believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine
Read more
Updated at 6.10pm GMT