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DB can probably confirm if the EW count looks complete. (5 of 5)
It certainly looks like the Ending Diagonal could be on its last legs.
arco
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/ec90b137de.gif
.
Printable View
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DB can probably confirm if the EW count looks complete. (5 of 5)
It certainly looks like the Ending Diagonal could be on its last legs.
arco
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/ec90b137de.gif
.
technically C should go higher than A of course, and its several hundred pips short of that , but EWI seem to be comfortable with it being only 9 pips short on a daily close basis. 1.4450 is the break point and 1.4050 is the confirmation point.
apparently someone sold 260mil at 1.4320
seems to have done the trick...
possibly another ending diagonal pattern , very similar to your count arco .
http://iforce.co.nz/i/fq33u0xe.jpg
DB - Do you think this EW count is feasible?
A breaks of the light blue line (H&S?) may yield results
http://i25.tinypic.com/rcojt4.gif
hi arco , its the same count in the chart posted before yours, very much a possibility but no signs yet of a usd rally.
if the ending diagonal has completed there should be an impulsive wave down , but the action after 144 looks still corrective.
no luck on kiwi , stopped out .
see you next week
Ichi Euro chart
Weekly plot has broken thru Kumo on second attempt. TS (red) is still supportive. KS (blue) is lagging and tries to attract PA
http://i31.tinypic.com/117bjnn.gif
Weekly chart update -
http://i29.tinypic.com/206k2s4.gif
Preparing for a Breakup in the European Monetary Union
A look at the rising risk of a Euro implosion
http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/EuroReport.pdf
Nice bounce off the Kumo, (pivot break entry) - didn't realise it would become a rocket ship. Taken +52
http://i33.tinypic.com/15ffw1x.gif
From GBP/JPY thread
excellent
I had been drawing several butterflies on the hourly for the Eur/USD and the first two had activated. Having closed the GBP long I thought I should keep something going in the same direction so I opend one at 1.4600 - and suddenly it was +30 so i set a stop to B/E and came back to work.
closed half at +40 and the other at +20....prefer the other direction.
I'm posting the picture here now to support my previous post regarding some bullish patterns - you can see several of them and they seem to be progressively triggering as they push through the B point of the various butterflies.
What I am finding interesting is that EWI are commenting on those same levels in their analysis today
"Prices are at initial resistance at 1.4662-1.4670"
That is where the middle of the three butterflies in my picture completes after having activated at 1.4582.
They then say that next resistance is at 1.4720 ish which is the C point of the largest butterfly in the pic, not quite where I would put resistance though obviously theres some history at that level.
And of course they say 1.4850 is the break point for any bearish case. According to the butterfly theory I;m working with a clean break of where we are now - 1.4670 - means that the large butterfly has activated and it should go to 1.4850.
No position at the moment just watching - seeing what plays out but theoretically if it breaks higher I should go long... not saying I will tho
Peat I jumped on expecting the big butterfly to execute at ~1.550 it hasn't been a rough ride.:)
awesome
do you mean 1.4550?
I took this snag last night, but the PA is still in the grey zone
Ichi gave good H1/H4 signals earlier for a max of around 100 and 50 pips respectively, although I didnt take the trade it was definitely a missed opportunity :(.
http://i38.tinypic.com/whoeo7.gif
pips for breakfast off this micro butterfly on the 1 min - not drawn in.
clearly I should have stayed for lunch and dinner. :(
Great reversal/continuation off the Kumo
http://i36.tinypic.com/259vktc.gif
Out at 1.4860. I don't think it will go down just yet tho.:)
I wonder if we have bounced off 1.4980 now ad heading for 1.5500...
back in long on friday anyway
Short time frame slightly wonky H+Sh.
slightly longer time frame - bearish butterfly
adding the pics to show what I meant by my previous post
moving into strongly positive territory.
taken 10% of the trade off at +70
(the next day)
taking 20% off at +130
(six hours later again)
first preset target was hit - love those Oanda green dots ! so thats another 20% taken off at +180. half the trade still rolling. big targets for the remainder so it is not unexpected that a fair amount will be retraced before further gains - I may well replace some of the closed trades if it goes up enough i,e re add shorts.
Nice one Peat.
I've been scalping some long on the retrace and peeling a few off as I go along.
whereas I've been scalping it short.
3 trades adding 90 pips to the banked profits, tho of course the larger short position has suffered. this as I said was to be expected..
the rise this morning hit my trailing stop on the remaining half of the trade at +44 - wasnt expecting such a resurgence so certainly not going to let it all go bad
may be close to triangle completing and bearish elliot count may take prices lower.
http://iforce.co.nz/i/txzpgs1r.jpg
closed this morning 140+ , that could be 5 waves down and now should retrace for another short entry.
There may be a low risk short entry here.
5 waves down from 14483 which will set risk limit , when ascending wedge breaks could be good for a couple of hundred.
would be great if ran up to 78.6 around 14440
http://iforce.co.nz/i/keznzt2r.jpg
Hi DB
I also like this for a possible short.
Looks like a bear flag,but all the signals have not stacked up yet.
Hugh fall of 900 pips and only a 23.6 retrace.......bit peculiar
here's the weekly
http://i50.tinypic.com/33mc2dh.gif
hi arco, i get where your coming from, but i suppose when a move gets going the big retraces just never come.
i suppose its only fair watching everything else climb vertically against the usd it may have a TEMPORARY day in the sun.
to me this was a great low risk trade in at 14440 with a risk of 50 pips.
Just printed a evening star on h1 but i suspect it will be a slow grind untill NFPs out the way.
LOVING the site keep up the great work.
paul
NZ Brokers?
Hi does anyone know of reliable kiwi brokers ? I have been with WSD Global markets based in Auckland , and NZX regulated . They offer some of the best spreads in the market w/ 0.5 Pip spread on EURUSD..
Anyone fancy some crackling?
The mess the pigs are in will affect the world
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...0624864&pnum=2
another free stratfor article on Germany with lots of comments on the Euro....
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100...1d1f11e6a1986a
"There's always more than one cockroach" Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT (referring to Portugal)
Deputy Governor of the Peoples' Bank of China Zhu Min only made matters worse by warning that Greece is merely the "tip of the iceberg" and is just the start of a much bigger sovereign debt crisis
wow thats awesome... its like saying "Hey you guys hope you can pay your bills , we know we can"
which country(s) do you think he is specifically referring to?
this morning I want to comment on the Euro and what I'm seeing as diagonal triangles. to save me typing it out I've attached one pic of how Jeffrey Kennedy from Elliot Wave describes them
and in the second pic is what I see as two diagonal triangles in different directions... the downward sloping one is potentially the end of this large downward movement from which I had a couple of +300 or more trades. I had already closed my shorts but this was the sign to me that if I hadnt of I should be by now.
And then to my surprise I saw another one occurring last night on a much smaller time frame which I played for a small number of pips. Note than in each case there was a blowoff after the triangle had completed, I'm pretty sure this should be expected , and is perhaps a good opportunity to get your position in, although if you read the tutorial one really should wait for confirmation the move is beginning.
you can read the Elliot wave tutorial on Diagonal triangles here (or of course from their website)
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/im...ClubReport.pdf
so a bit surprising to identify these patterns so close together but the down one was at the end of a wave 5 (not really confirmed yet but we shall see) and the upward one presenting itself as part of an a-b-c so from what I understand there is no contradiction in this.
anyway , just thought I would share this morning.
good trading all.
Hi peat, thanks for this info, I downloaded it when you posted it and have been following it a bit.
I noticed a good examples from last week on the 1H chart, in AUDUSD.
But looking at the current EURUSD i see one potentially breaking out.
130 pips+ after the break of the diagonal triangle, and has retraced past the number 2 point as specificed in peat's document.
see attached
thats awesome silverlight. glad you're making use of the info.
Potentially a diag tri showing on the NASDAQ ...
looks like a short term bear flag diag triangle on the Euro broke about 7 am this morning as well
a deal has been done....
euro higher?
I always wonder in times like this where Oanda offers after hours trading if I shouldnt hit it hard even with an increased out of hours spread.
price moved up as trading commenced - tho the spread doubled from 10 to 20
weekend position now up 30 pips and that includes the spread so yes I should have hit it harder - oh well any money for jam is good.
Hi Peat
We had a good run on the blog last week on a couple of trades with Euro
http://i44.tinypic.com/zwz334.gif
big night ! markets routed.
I wasnt short but wasnt long either , certainly a night to have had stops in place.
interesting piece on financial crises out from stratfor last night
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100...6321fbed31d503
quite philosophical in nature , but I enjoy this kind of stuff
I've actually recently bought a book by George Friedman (dude who runs Stratfor) called "The NExt 100 Years" where he puts it all on the line with longterm forecasts re geopolitics... I'm just a few chapters in but its pretty clear he doesnt buy the standard popular China becoming dominant theory , in fact he's saying the 21st century is going to be when America comes of age, describing it as a pimply adolescent right now.
Not something to trade on obviously but I believe the guy needs to be given some credence.
Sounds interesting Peat.
I did warn on the blog yesterday about Euro bearish potential
Eur.Usd #41 – Consolidating. Bearish continuation still looks feasible in the medium/longer term ........... Chikou resistance @ 3218 and Kijun at 3227 are holding up north bound progress.
Also gave Aussie and Kiwi as shorts.
Aud.Usd #42 - Continuation south cautiously feasible in the short term as the action struggles against the daily charts broken minor up-trend line with potential to form a mini 123 on the 4 hour. Chikou below as possible support zone area 9198-9166.
Nzd.Usd #47 – Short term looks slightly bearish on break of Bear Flag (1H chart) with potential for test of Chikou 7241
looking back its all so apparent huh. A totally perfect gartley on the Euro Weekly chart here.
And Phaedrus says Fibonacci levels have no value pffft.
I apologise for only doing this in hindsight - one day I'll get it right for the future
I will say that looks like a hammer on this very last candle.
Peat, my Dow thread comments on Fibonacci retracements referred specifically to their application to Indices, in this instance, the Dow. As support for my opinion, I cited the following :- "A recent study by Professor Roy Batchelor and Richard Ramyar found no evidence that Fibonacci numbers work in American stockmarkets. They tested nearly 90 years of history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1914-2002) and found no indication that trends tend to reverse at the 61.8% level - or at any other Fibonacci level." http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/sto...004_65846.html
It is unfair of you to take my comments totally out of context and then apply them to Forex trading - a completely separate topic and one that I did not so much as mention.
I appreciate that many Forex traders utilise Fibonacci levels but this has nothing to do with the Dow, my opinion as stated, or the findings of the Batchelor/Ramyar paper referred to above. You might like to read this article :- http://www.proshareng.com/articles/s...ws.php?id=1121 The author has no difficulty whatsoever reconciling these two separate viewpoints.
I say that Fibonacci levels don't work with the Dow.
You say that they do work with Forex.......
Where is the argument?
ok
I never appreciated that distinction.....I'll follow up in another thread (this one is for Eur$$$ )
Does anyone use Heiken Ashi indicator? If yes, what other indicators could be useful with Heinken Ashi?
yes I quite often flick to Heiken Ashi simply to smooth out noise on a chart - it seems to make trends more obvious and can make it a lot more apparent how to count waves.
Thanks Peat. "Count wave" meaning Elliot wave? or 5-3.. How do you time your entry and place your stop loss? Do you look at other indicator to time your entry?
yes I count in EW.
entry? ....different ways... a butterfly trigger is something I'm always looking out for. RSI crossovers... candles such as harami/engulfing patterns ... with Heikin Ashi you could just be green sell red at different time frames.
stops go on the other side of historical support/resistance or swing high's/lows
not looking good for the Euro but its well oversold and in fact showing divergence on the daily
I'm gonna try a small cheeky long at 1.22 18 pip stop. -12 already :(
(later) +30 putting on a 40 pip trailing stop and of to zzz. dont really trust it. not much at risk now.
Thanks Pete. Looks like it has touched 50% fib level on monthly chart (1/11/2000 to 01/07/2008). Still looking for a long position :)
105 PIPS...I should have stayed in. Waiting for a retracement.
I got out at the right time :)
Maybe go long again around 1.2246 if it reaches before bedtime and indicators permitting.
Looking for a retracement to 1.2296 or preferably around 1.2272 to go Long. These appear to be fib confluence zones on 1 hr chart. Off course it depends on my other indicators. Any recommendation?
must be about time to buy the euro again
Newsweeks cover attached
long Euro from my last post could have provided good returns
time to go hard longing again for the C wave. 1.25 minimum target??
currently +70
going pretty well
nearly up 200 already!
hope some of you are rockin this with me
kaching
1.25
Good call PEat. If only I had seen your post earlier I would have joined you on a position.
nice trade there Peat
Euro was a good mover and one I put on the blog - max so far was just over 500 pips
Is it time to short EUD/USD?
My chart tells me to go short. Any ideas?
yes I was just about to post that the impulse is looking south now... I started shorting on Friday initially on short term time frames but as there is no real indication to the contrary may as well hold and enjoy. .
general consensus seems to be :
If the stress tests are seen as weak then they would lose their credibility, and if they are too harsh then the currency markets could be spooked, making a fragile situation even worse.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10661179
'This is not reassuring at all," said Komal Sri-Kumar, who helps manage US$118 billion as chief global strategist at TCW Group in Los Angeles.
"I don't think the market is so stupid as to think that they were so wrong,"said Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management in New Mexico, which oversees about US$57 billion. "The right explanation here is that the testing was not very rigorous."
Analysts and investors said the European tests might not have been strict enough because they ignored the majority of banks' holdings of sovereign debt. The evaluations took into account potential losses only on government bonds the banks trade, rather than those they are holding until maturity, CEBS said.
Lenders hold about 90 per cent of their Greek government bonds in their banking book and 10 per cent in their trading book, a survey by Morgan Stanley analysts showed.
They have to write down the value of bonds in their banking book only if there is serious doubt about a state's ability to repay in full or make interest payments.
Went all in on Fri night selling into the rally. Was a bit scary as it kept going up but was vindicated last night and took some profits to ensure I didnt blow out if I'm wrong
EWI say 'Friday's advance in the [Euro] also counts as a post-triangle thrust, so with Monday's decline the odds are increasing that the expected top has formed"
several hundred pips since I made that post
five hundred since Fri night.
i just keep selling the Euro at the moment with no stops
a few days ago I had -200 pips on a few trades
but all came right pretty quickly
tonight I will start doing this again
check out this speech / tirade on the EU state from Nigel Farage (no I hadnt heard of him either)
but he nails all the things wrong and really twists the kniife. a barage from Farage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HB_L1cnCqs
from interest.co
I did , but wisely took a lot off at 1.2650
starting to slowly build up shorts again now , I may experience pain for a while but am reasonably confident it will fall hard when it does if I look at the daily chart I see a downtrend
but hey I could be wrong and I will reduce over 1.29
I've just gone short GBP.USD . Will wait on signals to do the same with EUR/USD, or use as a hedge if the trade should go against me.
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damn, the markets are ultra volatile tonight!!
SPIEGEL: As an investor, would you still bet on the euro?
Soros: I certainly would not short the euro because China has an interest in having an alternative to the dollar. You can count on China to back the efforts of the European authorities to maintain the euro.
SPIEGEL: Is that the reason why the euro is still so strong compared to the dollar?
Soros: Yes. There is a mysterious buyer that keeps propping up the euro.
SPIEGEL: And it is not you.
Soros: It is not me (laughs).
Am short Eur @ 1.4120. Looking at 1.4000
Not too often one hops a 250 pip ride moments before the bus takes off.
Attachment 4636
The situation did become very oversold though, which accounts for such a snap back.
After USD I believe EURO will have their day in the long run.
I am bullish on EURO in the long run and it will shine like AUD and NZD. Next 18 months is very crucial for EURO, AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies.
EURO and emerging market currencies will appreciate against NZD, AUD in the medium run.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eur...ged-2014-07-03
U.S. dollar hits three-week high versus yen on jobs
Euro drops as ECB holds rates unchanged; Central banker talks down Aussie
Nice day trade even if I did have to wake up pretty early. I sure got that worm
Attachment 9412
I am trading in the EuroUSD again this time in the opposite direction - so I am short from Friday after a bearish gartley presented itself - which is not shown exactly but those familiar will recognise the fib levels which are shown.
The USD govt closing down raised my anxiety a little during the weekend and indeed the price gapped up half a cent but I have held the position which would appear to be coming back to Fri close pretty quickly . These closures seem to be a bit spurious in the past ...
Attachment 9432
my weekend thoughts
EURUSD
Monthly :
Price has moved upward from the trendline top of a down channel which rejected down from the 200ema ( the down channel ) . Price continues moving down from the 200ema
Weekly :
Price has moved downward in a possible down channel from the down channel rejection double top above the significant level at 1.218. Possibly in a 'V' reversal pattern. Price has moved down below the strong level 1.218
Daily :
BIG RED DOUBLE WICKED CANDLE – PRICE MOVED DOWN REJECTING THE STRONG LEVEL 1.218 – MOVING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY LEVEL 1.210 AND JUST BELOW THE 50EMA AND THE BASE OF THE DOWN DEFINED DOWN CHANNEL – PRICE IS AT A STRONG LEVEL AND INSIDE THE EMA'S
THE SIGNIFICANT LEVEL IS NOW A BARRIER TO ANY MOVE DOWN AND THE 50EMA A BARRIER TO A MOVE UP – CONVERGENT MACD
So now ASK : is the price likely to go up or go down OR MOVE WITHIN THE CHANNEL?
18th june 2021 thoughts for what they are worth
EURUSD
Monthly :
Price has moved upward from the trendline top of a down channel then rejected down from the 200ema toward the down channel. Price rose but failed to stay above above a significant level 1.218. Price continues moving down from the level and is very close to a red outside candle.
Weekly :
Price has moved downward breaking below the base of the possible down channel to a strong SIGNIFICANT level and zone at 1.1900. 'V' reversal pattern failed.
Daily :
SECOND BIG RED (THIS TIME DOUBLE) WICKED CANDLE – PRICE FELL MOVING STRONGLY DOWN THROUGH THE 200EMA TO A STRONG DAILY, WEEKLY AND A SIGNIFICANT MONTHLY LEVEL 1.1900 – PRICE IS BELOW THE EMA'S – THE 10EMA HAS CROSSED DOWN BELOW THE 20EMA AND THE 50EMA ALL DESCENDING, ALL ABOVE PRICE – THE 200EMA ASCENDING ABOVE PRICE
THE STRONG SIGNIFICANT ZONE OF 1.1900 TO 1.2000, AND THE 200EMA ARE NOW BARRIERS TO ANY MOVE UP AS ARE THE COMBINED 10EMA AND 50EMA AND THE 20EMA FURTHER ABOVE – CONVERGENT MACD DOWN -
I
So now ASK : is the price likely to go up or go down OR STALL ? WHERE IS THE NEAREST BARRIER, UP OR DOWN ?
19th thoughts
EURUSD
Monthly :
Price has moved upward from the trendline top of a down channel and rejected down from the 200ema ( the down channel ) from which price failed to move up returning inside the 10ema again – indicating possible fail to move up or stalling on the monthly time frame
Weekly :
Price has previously moved upward in an up channel from the long term down channel then twice rejected the significant level at 1.218 shown in blue. Possible trend reversal in progress to be conformed with a lower low. Refer Marks education.
Daily :
third BIG RED DOUBLE WICKED CANDLE – PRICE AGAIN MOVED DOWN CONTINUING DOWN BELOW THE 200EMA – MOVING TO A VERY STRONG DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY LEVEL ABOUT 1.185 – THE 10EMA HAS MOVED DOWN BELOW THE 20EMA AND THE 50EMA ALL THREE MOVING DOWNWARD TOWARD THE 200EMA BELOW AND THE PRICE EVEN LOWER – PRICE IS AT A STRONG LEVEL AND BELOW THE EMA'S AND THE WEEKLY 50EMA
THE STRONG LEVEL IS NOW A BARRIER TO ANY MOVE DOWN AND THE EMA'S AND SIGNIFICANT LEVEL A BARRIER TO A MOVE UP – CONVERGENT MACD
I
So now ASK : is the price likely to go up or go down OR STALL?