Totally gree should be very afraid , 2021 rugby rights up for review i believe you can imagine prime subscription with rugby viewing.
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Chicken and egg. If SKY loses the rights, whats the point of them owing the company (OSB) that does that production. So they could shut it down and lose their shirt on it out of spite effectively - which would not exactly be a prudent use of shareholder funds - or sell it to the new rights holder or anyone else. Or they could keep it and charge for the privilege and at least keep a sliver of revenue from the sport. Or the rugby union themselves using the bonanza of all that extra revenue produce it themselves and not need them anymore as part of the deal. There is 3 options off the top of my head - So its not the sure thing lock in everyone believes it to be.
Rights and production are different. They could produce the rugby and someone else broadcasts it or vice versa. There is not another company in NZ that can produce all the rugby games they do, Intl, Super Rugby, NPC all the way down to school boy. That is a lot of games and not a small or easy operation to start
They dont need to! - All Amazon/Netflix/Spark etc has to do is acquire the streaming rights. Leave the "broadcast" rights to SKY which then forces them to keep "producing the content".
This is the common approach overseas, split streaming and broadcast rights and get everyone to bid for either - SKY would never win the Streaming and probably couldn't afford both anyway, but couldn't afford not to have the standard rights either. Its a absolute money maker for the Sports - they effectively get a double up for something that didnt exist 5 years ago. NZRugby would be crazy not to follow and Im sure they will. The damage to SKY's business having a competitor thou, will be massive.
bollingers turning down , macd negative , the hourlies consolidating at the lows - whens there results?
under 3 getting closer maybe at report time? be interesting
^^ Even then would you consider it a good buy? Dividends and cashflow are great, but where is the business in 5+ years?
Totally agree but they still have a chunk in the bank, they are bound to acquire something.... if they are losing customers fast then they will look to get customers through a different business altogether. They would be crazy to spend their cash saving this dying business. If they can acquire something they can bundle then they will survive this rut. If they sit back and spend that banked cash on paying divies.....then the game is over.
Hammer Time lol
poor result with reduced div my under 3 looking good and lower
funny to read the commentary, that they still dont get there fundamental problem is price , they can ramble on all they like about there product but if its overpriced they will always lose.
solid results much better than expected. net profit 116m better MoriningStar 98m and 4-traders 108m,cashflow is massive.
Disappointed with the reduction in divvy - especially with that cashflow.
As much as I dislike SKY and think they need new leadership and vision, even with the current management it's starting to look reasonable value. Current under $3 if you factor in divvy.
Sky TV is a sinking ship unless they start to get smarter about online streaming. It has been the same for ESPN and Disney. ESPN have been hemorrhaging subscribers for years and DIS.NYSE have felt the impact of that - disney's recent move to focus on online streaming was the only smart thing they could do (other than split ESPN off into a wholly separate company).
NEON (Sky's online service) is overpriced and under-catalogued. Game of Thrones is the only reason I login for a 'Free trial' every year...
It makes me chuckle that John Fellet thinks his biggest competition is piracy when Netflix, Lightbox and other subscription platforms like Amazon are the things they should be worried about most. It also wouldn't give me confidence that Fellet laments the Commerce Commissions decision not to let the merger happen and then not wanting to get into the details of why it would be a good thing. Pretty much, everything is not Sky's fault..
Some of the result here is being cushioned remember by a one off event that happens every 12 years (Lions tests). I have a feeling the numbers would have been much worse without it. Still impressive cash flow, and to make net profit off that revenue in the industry they are in is not terrible. Time is running out for them however.
Disc: Not a holder
Better than I expected. Still no interested even with dividend. You'll never get your capital back.
Their other competitor is simply the internet in general - people are happy to while away a few hours on Facebook, or YouTube or surfing nested hyperlinks to conspiracy theories.
I don't agree with Fellet that they should pair back on the deals for new customers & reducing their content spend on the basis that customers will be attracted & retained due to the new software release and their utilisation of big data. IMO, fresh blood at the top is required.
Did he actually he say that? LOL. Because they've done such an amazing job so far. My SKY box takes 5 seconds to do anything (ie change channel) after a button press because it's so old and the "new software" is slowing it down so much already. So exactly what more are they gonna be able to do with it that won't brick it? I already feel like throwing it out the window half the time.
The future of this company will be a major acquisition IMO, their current business is dying and they have a large bank balance. They need something to complement their cash flow and retain customers. I think Power, Insurance or BB. There are ways around the commerce commission rulings if they pull sports out of the business which would allow them to get the Telco option back one. The Telco is my least favorite option though.
Interesting listening to the Radiosport talkback last night.
Alot of disgruntled Sky Sport customers who feel they aren't getting value for money.
A few callers were saying they called Sky customer service to cancel their subscription, but the customer service reps offered them discounted $30/month deals to keep them on + free stuff like movies for 3 months.
Sky getting desperate to keep their loyal customers!
Given the track record, it's hard to believe I know! - here's the quotes:
"Fellet confirmed there would be no price rise for Sky customers this year, but said he wanted to rein back "aggressive" discounts to new customers"
"Fellet said Sky planned to cut its content costs by 5 per cent in the year to June."
Regarding the decoder, our "next gen" decoder was actually pretty quick but a relative's older unit is exceptionally slow to the point of it being almost unusable. These older units should have been automatically replaced by Sky or not have received the new update(s).
Officially under $3 now
Someone stop me from hitting the buy button!
Thanks both I will resist. I do think there is a good chance this will bounce at some point to mid $3s but probably not worth the risk. Completely agree it's not a good long term hold, but as a trading stock it is tempting at current levels, especially with the divvy coming up
This article https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/22/ov...-survey-finds/ contradicts that one to an extent, but sadly for SKY neither is helpful for its business.
That's even worse. Sky is basically just a middleman. If Disney is going to directly stream it's content then there's no reason why Rugby New Zealand can't outsource to a video crew to film the All Black games then stream that content direct. Basically keeping all the profits themselves. Why pay a third party to resell your own content?
Winston Peter's appears to be going to hold the balance of power. One of his key desires is that key international sport events involving Kiwi's are screened free to air.
Interesting behind the paywall article on NBR - Guts of it is extremely negative. Lot of talk that if you ring SKY up to cancel your subscription they offer you a special deal of $20 month to keep it. Desperation anyone ? This stock is facing systemic issues that ensure it is in structural long term decline.
Thanks for highlighting this, Jay Riggs was saying the same thing. The more people are made aware of this the more are going to try it on. I am after the US open and will let you guys know what "deal" is given to me. This could snowball badly for SKY where in the end they just have to lump a $30p/m charge and be done with it.
$2.50 target price from Craigs
Well, Mr Fellet still believes in his company...must be reading his own script...
https://nzx.com/companies/SKT/announcements/306088
Will this be a buy consideration at $2.50?
Thank you.
My new mantra: downtrend, blockbuster, netflix, Om.
om
əʊm,ɒm/
noun
[COLOR=#878787 !important][/COLOR]
- a mystic syllable, considered the most sacred mantra in Hinduism and Tibetan Buddhism. It appears at the beginning and end of most Sanskrit recitations, prayers, and texts.
I got back on the horse a while ago just as a little indulgence over the colder months and get basic, movies, Mysky+ and high definition for about $80 a month.
The main channel I watch is CNBC the world's leading business channel. I think ~ $50 a month is a complete rip off for the basic part of the package but I think it just earns it keep for me in terms of keeping me abreast of international business matters.
The movies at ~ $20 a month is probably reasonable but I object to paying another $10 a month for high definition which is really just standard definition these days, Ultra high definition is the new high definition in my opinion. I might spit the dummy with them as we get closer to summer and I get out and about more...
No way I'd own the shares even at $2.50.
My thoughts on how Sky might become a bit more relevant again. Drop the basic package, make Fan Pass a fair price, and allow people to build their own plan online.
They've got good content... a turnaround is possible in the future but need to see some bold moves from the company.
Article: https://www.thestockpickerau.com/sin...-Letter-to-Sky
Johnny boy maybe trying to show the market his own confidence in the company by buying 150k worth of shares. Unfortunately, he's already down on his position by quite a bit. It comes off disingenuous really..
This has all been predicted for at least 2 years on this thread. Thank goodness for Sky there are not that many shorting options available in NZ.
CEO has done nothing except for try to secure their monopolistic position by trying to merge with a phone company.
Sky Basic Package - Complete Rip Off yet most profitable part of the business (see the problem?)
Sky Sports - the jewel in the crown - until it is not
Fan Pass - was too successful so they took it away
Neon - is more expensive than Netflix and unstable.
Is it too late for a fresh forward thinking CEO to take the reigns?
It's going to be great when Sky go bust and everything will be free.
OK, the Sky box will have gone and I'll have to get the old VHS recorder out of the garage, but that's no problem.
And we'll get terrific coverage of all sporting events on free to air just like when ITV took over the soccer in the UK. It was great...
Oh, just a minute, no it wasn't it was absolute shi*te. Mmmm?
Don't hold but happy with my sky box and especially Premier League coverage on BeIn sports.
Despite a "decent" 12.5c dividend...this stock is struggling to hold its ground.Wonder what this stock's price will be when it goes ex dividend..any guesses?
Just curious as to why everyone is saying Fan Pass was taken away.
I have never paid for TV before but I really wanted to watch the McGregor/Mayweather fight so I got a 1 mth FanPass and coughed up for PPV.
Worked fine
this be bad for skys share price end of sept if it happens
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11914430
Sky now just 7 million away from dropping below 1 Billion Market Cap. $2.59. Shareholders have really lost confidence in the last 6 months
As Conor McGregor would say, "they'll do fookin nuttin"
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sky-tv...looms-b-207287
Ouch, those holding for the dividend have just got themselves skunked.
The root of their problems is their packaging methodology and pricing. Everything optional has to come with the basic package which at just on $50 a month is a complete rort.
If they stop abusing what little they have left of their pricing power they might be able to save some of the Titanic but what's the bet management and directors will simply rearrange the deck chairs or worse, do nothing.
Yeah, its so last century this share. Some analysts have given up on them, see the link. As fire optic broadband becomes more and more readily available the Titanic takes on more and more water and then...
(I think our street doesn't get it till 2020 and Sky will get the boot from our house the very same week we get proper broadband).
LOL yeah good point, a lot of people are getting proper broadband before we are. This thing is in systemic decline, the only question is how long can they keep the Titanic afloat. This thing a definite value trap if people are thinking of buying for the dividend yield they will probably find that their dividends come straight off the share price with extra losses just like today's example to rub salt into the wound.
We live on the outskirts of town and may not get fibre to our address. Recently upgraded to Naked VDSL with Skinny, unlimited.
Wow...what a difference this is making. Didn't appreciate just how significant it would be having unlimited Broadband. The VDSL speed is excellent, the same or a little better than my son's fibre in Te Atatu North....Ooops...its meant to be Peninsular now. NETFLIX is giving us all the series and movies we are likely to need...will buy the odd DVD (eg Game of Thrones) perhaps from time to time. Can readily stream Fox News, CNBC (sometime) etc. Miss SKY sport....but can not see us going back there. Enough other sport to watch on Freeview or streaming, such as the Extreme Sailing series where a couple of Kiwi's are doing well. And its made us more social as well. We go out for dinner with a couple of bottles of red whenever AB's or other are playing. So my point....fibre not necessary to enable ditching Sky.
this news story probably contributed to the fall today .... bad for sky
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11915194
Love your story, very similar to my own.
We haven't missed SKY, even sports, except their stupid retrograde step of removing daily and weekly Fanpass subs. Saving about $1200 per annum in Sky STB fees.
We also make the occasional visit to group therapy to watch the rugby live at a friends house, it seems to be a developing trend. Good on Sky for promoting community connectedness.
We're also on VDSL, there's no Fibre choice here in paradise, but very impressive performance suitable for a whole family streaming the internet simultaneously. Not waiting for Fibre, there's no need, got the unlimited broadband world streaming on VDSL into our place, it's quite the eye opener.
Best of all is connecting live on internet video with family all over the country and the world, it's brought everyone together in a most surprising way.
Sky really don't get it. No way I'd be a shareholder in this 'used to be' company, there's only one way for them and it's the wrong way, but a fast way to disrupted oblivion.
Sad really.
Good stuff...must get around to getting VDSL, our old ADSL system is driving me loopy.
Good luck if SKY does disappear because you'll end up with the really crap free TV you probably deserve.
my under 3 dollars was well on the money ill probably stick around for the under 2 dollar party coming soon
Why would someone step up? Where is the value that they would be buying?
If Sky TV is using yesterday's technology then there is nothing to pay for there. A buyer would bring better technology than Sky has.
If it is Sky TV's subscriber base then how badly are the Netflixs and Amazons doing at present? Seem to be growing subscribers quite nicely without buying them from someone else.
If it is Sky TV's contracts with content providers then really the only jewel is the sport. Other content would quickly come through a streaming provider if Sky TV no longer held exclusive rights.
Who produces the Rugby content?
If Amazon gets the rights who will be contracted to produce that content? Will Amazon do it for NZRU?
Very tough industry to be in, but Sky still has a pile of cash sitting around. They will milk it for as long as they can. I still think the will acquire something very soon. Too little debt for that bank balance especially with where the SP is at the moment.
Wouldn't touch this one even if it went below $1
Sky's war chest is pocket change to the amount of cash that Facebook, Google, Amazon and for that matter, Apple have lying around.
Have a look at the article below and the comments by Chris Keall to give the idea of what Star TV had to bid to keep the IPL rights. USD 600 million is a truckload - nay, a shipload of cash and Murdoch controlled Star TV paid a staggering $2.6 billion to secure the broadcast and online rights...
https://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/facebo...mment-position
"Probably"? That's flawed logic, how much over $1 in dividends? When is death occurring? How long to pay $1 and hope to get $1+ back in dividends? All hypothetical, just don't invest in disrupted companies unwilling or unable to reinvent themselves and going down the toilet. Get your money out before it's a complete disaster, if you have any money in it. One can't rationalise a plausible reason for investing in a business model set on a pathway of capital destruction.
I would quite happily pay a single somebody a monthly fee to act as an portal or content aggregator for me.
I don't want to have to mess about with 23 separate accounts with various providers for the content I want.
But I also don't want to be forced to buy access to 143 junk channels that I will never watch.
Am I a market of one, crying in the wilderness?
disruption..when you are talking about it it usually is too late
No GMT, you're not alone, I don't want to be paying 10 different providers either and/or as you say for another 60+ channels I don't want.
Some years ago, now 20+ I was talking to a guy from Canada and they had something like 80+ "general" channels and could not find a single thing to watch, thought at the time, we won't get to that, may not have 80+ but a fair few on the basic package, of which I watch maybe 3-4 on a regular basis and the majority never seen.
It seems that anyone can start up a TV channel on anything and get it on the platform, do Sky own all these, surely not, Sky may pay something to the providers??, but I'm sure the only a small number who watch any of these outside the main ones, why don't they stream those and reduce the basic package as has been suggested before. Maybe the demographic that watch these are not tech savy, must have children or grandchildren that could soon sort it out for them
Unless they are confident of keeping the rugby, they have to change or go out of business I would have thought, then there will be a lot of people looking for alternatives.
Agree waikare
What I was saying if they get to keep the rugby and cricket, it may give them a bit more time
Don't know when the rugby will be decided, but could be a good punt if you think they will keep it this time round ... if you are brave enough... I'm not!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...tial-nzx-float
Vodafone's proposed NZX float and recent upswing of SKT....any connections?
Is this a real possibility or take it one step further and they take over Sky
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news...ectid=11919649
Basically a partnership between the two, Sky keeping the rights and Amazon streaming it in other countries such as US, UK, Japan, France for a fee paid to Sky .
Must admit Sky do a better job of showing the games here than some other feeds we get - especially South Africa and even Aussie
Though still only a matter of time, maybe a slight reprieve in the meantime ????
I have sky Via Vodaphone as on cable in Wellington . I called and said I wanted to cancel it , they immediately offered a $ 300 incentive to sign up for a year .
So just start off with either I am cancelling or I need to cut some costs are there any specials on at the moment and they should start coming to the party .
i would suggest repeat this with your mobile phone provider, and insurance or go via an insurance broker to check if they could make any savings or get you a better
policy for the same or better cost .
If you need any help with a mortgage PM me ...!!
Rang them and said I'd been a customer for close to 20 years (switched to digital when it first came out as needed to take decoder so could watch cricket at beach house - also had to switch to Meredian Energy). Anyway expecting to get movies for 3 months I got free Soho for 3 months and my basic reduced to $1 a month for 12 months, it was worth about $400. Admittedly I have multi room, Soho, my sky so was spending about $140 a month. Was best money I ever earned then did the same with Meredian and got my prompt pay discount to 15% from 10% plus $100 credit.
Thanks for the replies. Will be giving them a call tomorrow and seeing what they have to offer. I have heard from another source that you can also get deals through the telemarketer on a different 0800 number for SKY. So will be trying both approaches and see what happens. I am paying about $90 a month at the moment but we only really watch sports and all the other stuff we watch is free anyway. I may even say to the SKY people that my friend has a KODI box and gets everything for free and that I am looking at that option... what can you offer me?
Thanks for the other possibilities Tim and Stoploss, did not even consider Meridian, and or Insurance, we have successfully negotiated with the bank in the past but off course the other providers are there too. Cheers!
The telemarketer deal requires you to have completed a stand-down period of a few months (exact period varies by contact centre agent).
I'm not sure if mentioning the free Kodi deal is an ideal strategy as you're admitting to the call centre agent that one alternative is to pirate content, and although there is rigorous debate on the legal technicalities, I personally would not want to be caught up in any test cases.
IMO the best strategy is to push the case for having been a long time loyal customer, and point out the other low-cost legal generic streaming alternatives.
Bit OT I suppose, so I'll leave this there.
With Meredian I just mentioned that Genesis had a great deal going and that my wife had shares in Genesis so we should be with them - that seemed to help!
I did wonder about that.. I might just mention that my friend has a Kodi box and leave it at that. The legal technicalities are interesting. I did understand it is not illegal to actually have one, even view content. But opinions do differ.
As for the stand down, I need not have SKY till the cricket season starts and failing that, my partner will apply in her name... so no stand by required.
Since SKY seem devoid of any bright ideas, heres one they can have for free. Buy the OZ/NZ Tivo licence.
That way they buy a few hundred thousand loyal set top box users and save them $600 each from buying a new PVR - which they could spend on SKY subs. They can stream pay per views via the set top box. And they can come to a deal with Vodafone to share internet resource. Does away with cost of dishes. Could look at bundling Netflix / lightbox apps and the like through the same box. Given their cash wouldn't be an expensive investment and gives them another leg or two for income.