Hoooray the little fella drank the a2!! Phew......
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From the Sydney Daily Telegraph today -more like this from the news media please!
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/new...-1226860958477
No longer to be called the A2 Corporation (with a BIG A) but the a2 Milk Company™Quote:
from the announcement today
“This may appear like just a name change. For The a2 Milk Company™, it reflects our journey from early research and entrepreneurial pioneers in New Zealand to a unified global identity, focussed on our mission to make the extraordinary benefits of A2 dairy milk understood and available to all,”
(with a little a and a ™ as well).
Really fail to see why the SP has not risen today.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger (™, © & bar)
Maybe the new name has been enough to get Milford Asset Mngmt excited. They have just increased their holding by about 1%.
Whats happened with this stock sellers backed up and shareprice retreating.
Time to top up some more :)
I’m sure Susan has all the potential in the world, perhaps some good exp from Unilever and Arnnots too, but I’m not sure she has done nearly enough yet at the A2 milk company, in under a year to deserve 5,000,000 million shares at $0.0072 per share.
Perhaps if UK sales were ahead of the curve on a good solid marketing campaign rather than behind, perhaps if all that professional smooching had been put to good use on convincing the EFSA to moderate their views facilitating more open and direct marketing for A2 in Europe, but not thus far.
I don’t begrudge Geoff receiving his shares, he’s done a lot for A2 over many years and has returned a lot of shareholder wealth.
Susan, you haven’t yet worked hard enough for it or got the results, we are expecting very very big things from you now, get the sales and marketing in Europe sorted out !
When’s the AGM - November.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/192683.pdf
Anybody into the placement today at 82c? Institution selling down 6 million.
0.75...wtf???
It does seem that from today’s announcement that a confident plan is now in place for the Chinese regulatory changes and inventories will cover any disruption, I’ve taken some further confidence from this and recent news coverage.
I like to invest in companies with good management and bold goals, it just seems to focus a company internally and drives a positive culture.
$280M in revenues by 2016
$60M and a 1% market share in Chinese infant formula sales by 2016
A 1.8% market share in UK milk sales by 2016
A 10% market share in Australian milk sales, recently pulled forward to mid-2015.
And of course there are new initiatives presently rolling out in Australia, UHT, yoghourt, cream products, and the entry into the US is just kicking off.
I’m watching exchange rates, global dairy prices, but I’ve no reason to alter my FY14 valuation of $1.19 at this time.
I’m going to say that the A2 Milk Company is looking really very good for a top for all at this point.
Disc: Buy
Looks seriously oversold with some going at 75c,but then I would say that with a buy price of 92c:scared:
I'm a total chump when it comes to this chart stuff, but genuinely interested so am going to ask for your further thoughts.
It has broken the lower Bol Band yes, - but does that say buy - or look out? It has also broken its 200ma - a definite warning signal I understood
The slow stochastic, DMI and MACD 's don't say buy do they?
Is the smart money exiting?? Another 4.0m shares out at .78 at close.
The high P/E may be justifiable (I don't know) but in the current environment I'd be worried about jumping in there.
I would have thought that China's tightening of Supplier rules would have benefited the likes of ATM but this has not helped. Why the sudden rush to exit?
Don't hold
The China tightening rules aren't going to produce an immediate effect coupled with the current downturn on biotech stocks so the answer is Panickers plus Lab Rats doing their thing:scared: and maybe some bigger players rebalancing or freeing up cash for others reasons. Disc- Long
Why is everyone surprised at the drop:confused:
Screaming sell signals end of March around 90c....So many red arrows made my chart messy and impossible to ignore.
Long term support at 75 (not drawn on chart) tested and successfully bounced up off it today..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...TM28042014.png
Thank goodness us long termers don't have to study those messy charts, just believe the company will do the business given time aye:cool:
That's all you need couta, a bit of belief. And maybe a chicken sacrafice. And a full moon.
I see on the herald on line it says synlait won't apply for registration until after new canning belt is built in June. Hope a2has enough supply in china to last.
This is in the statement from A2MC. Looks like we are well positioned :
"a2MC Managing Director Geoffrey Babidge says “the requirements of the registration process are consistent with our expectations. We have been working closely with Synlait Milk in anticipation of potential changes and will continue to do so to build the Company’s position in this market. a2MC applies additional quality management processes to the supply chain from certifying each individual cow in the a2 milking herds to the finished product. The application of the A2 System© ensures that a2® Platinum™ branded infant formula is consistently of the highest quality and performance.”
Currently there are sufficient levels of inventory of a2® Platinum™ infant formula held by our distribution partner China State Farm State to ensure consumer demand in China continues to be satisfied.
The regulatory changes affecting China should not impact the production of a2® Platinum™ infant formula for sale in other markets, including Australia and New Zealand."
Hmmm...I've only got 2 legs:(
I didn't...Nextbigthing implied I should've though
The EMA is in the indicator drop down list on advanced chart selection.
Yes I stitched the indicator boxes together using the Paint.net open source program..
It is still very early in the Platinum product cycle and infant formula is presently only a very small part of ATM’s revenue. There's only a handful of shippments gone to China thus far.
ATM estimate that infant formula sales will rise to $60M by 2016 and that overall revenues will be $280, thus even at that time after a couple of years of good solid growth infant formula will still only represent around 20% of the revenue take.
A bit of panic selling yesterday, perhaps a bit of panic buying today, don't miss out folks.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...ula-rules.html
Back to basics, Dannii and her trampoline can’t have been a low cost option for the advertising budget ? http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/fmcg/fres...355935.article
I’ve had a look around for the alternate online advertising mentioned, perhaps it’s early just yet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iy1hi0H4nWM
Dannii is so mint I would buy anything from her
Possible reasons for price uncertainty into china and lack of news about other markets. Dannie can dead cat me on her tramp any time
Yes so I hope they have enough stock in china to cover existing customers and if they do probably means they will need to hold back on growing customers until supply is available from nz? Instead of a statement saying they have planned for this and have enough supply at the moment maybe they could of said how much supply they have in china so we could work out the situation.
In fact, Chinese customers never know A2. Ask anyone in China or Chinese in NZ whether they know this company and its products. You get the answer.
As early as January Synlait have told us that they have surplus infant formula production capacity.
“the company may not achieve its forecast target of 10,000 metric tonnes of infant formula and nutritional sales this financial year”.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11193307
I would anticipate from recent announcements that the A2 milk company may well have been taking advantage of this surplus capacity, getting ahead of the curve, and merrily stockpiling all year thus far.
It seems that Synlait now expect to achieve registration next month once it’s new packaging and processing plant is complete, ATM should come up for consideration at the same time one would expect.
"The Ministry for Primary Industry expects Synlait will receive approval once the new dry blending and consumer packaging factory is built which is scheduled for completion next month"
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU140...regulation.htm
But at the end of the day, infant formula presently only contributes really very little to ATM’s bottom line indeed, it’s in the low single digit percentages at these very early stages.
A draw down of ATM inventories over a quarter or even two I suspect may have absolutely no impact at all.
Storms in tea cups are one of my favourite buying opportunities.
do they have enough a2 milk production to stockpile? But I agree it is a storm in the tea cup and look at buying opportunities as they come like 75c this week. Even though only a small part of a2 the price I think has a big part factored in when it comes to China. North America will be the next announcement I presume?
It’s all good news after a period of watching what oddly and ironically could only ever have been a potential matter of entirely insignificant importance.
The A2 milk company have good inventories, their producer Synlait anticipate a resolution next month, the market now has a schedule which is always appreciated, and we should be confident that Synlait are using all those good Chinese contacts they have in totally smoozing bureaucrats in China in overdrive on ATM’s behalf, because ..... without customers to produce for Synlait are no better off at all. We may also get a further clarifying announcement from ATM tomorrow.
Could be a nice wee bounce and turn around from here given all this was just so ridiculously overdone.
“Currently there are sufficient levels of inventory of a2 Platinum™ infant formula held by our distribution partner China State Farm State to ensure consumer demand in China continues to be satisfied.”
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/192961.pdf
I don't think this delay (hopefully) in registration will have much effect on ATM (and Synlait). Based on both companies' recent statements they have been preparing for this to happen temporarily, until they get their new factory finished. Then they will have a brand new dry blending and consumer packaging factory, purposely built to export to China and meet Chinese requirements.
Hopefully the market will agree :confused:
Maybe a good time to accumulate a little more !
Hey Snapiti you were quite Bullish on this stock a while back,changed your thinking? I'm long with a 92c buy but not worried as long term this current issue will be a non event IMO
We’ve received good solid long term 2016 sales goals from ATM for their markets in Australia, the UK and China, and we cannot be far now from receiving one for the US entry. This is one of the reasons I’m quite bullish on ATM, good and bold management drives the right company culture and growth.
It’s a big continent and market North America and IMO the prospect of faffing about with one JV at a time may just not offer the momentum such a market deserves.
I would very much like to see management step it up a notch about here and go for a hefty capital raising rights issue to fund a good level of expansion into the US. Even if it just allows for the opening of four or five Smeaton Grange size facilities in say two year’s time.
http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-...2013-Final.pdf
This was the approach that was so successful in Australia and IMO is worthy of replication in the US.
I’d like to see our directors earn those big compensation packages we provide them with a bold move too.
No reason why the market should not agree there Iceman, it all seems to be in hand now, and there is no real risk as there is no real market exposure for ATM at present anyway.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice follow up announcement confirming the matter from ATM sometime today.
It's totally a top up opportunity today either way, enjoy folks.
A2's distributer in China, China State Farms is owned by the Chinese govt and Chinese company Bright Dairy is a major shareholder in Synlait. I'm betting they get certified once the new plant is finished in June.
ATM products manufactured under synlait factory, and synlait not yet registered at least until in june, the sp will face heavy downtrend pressure unless registration confirmed.
You're holding the wrong share guys, a lot of old nannies on this thread ,with a few exceptions of course. Meanwhile Synlaits share price is going up!
I've been looking all over for that uncertainty but just can't find it, looked everywhere, even where I already looked everywhere.
Wasn't under that enormous pile of inventories that ATM have set aside to ensure continued sales, it wasn't trying to hide under that wee tiny contribution in early stage revenues that ATM get from china either.
Well, perhaps the only uncertainty is that there may not be any uncertainty.
I think Snapiti just loves being a forum sad sack. The big red arrow he was confident about happening today didn't happen.
I think KW in the above post has put it very clearly why those of us long in ATM are not concerned with this relatively short delay for more formula production for the Chinese market. We have stock to supply this very small (but important) part of our business until Synlait starts producing for China again. None of ATM's other and more important business is affected
I’ve been reading on the A2 facebook page about folk in Australia buying up A2 cream and making A2 butter from it at home.
It’s nice to know there are some big fans out there, and perhaps it’s just a shame the name is now the ‘A2 milk company’ and not the ‘A2 dairy company’.
Makes one wonder about A2 Cheese too, …. or is the A2 protein in the whey and not the curd’s, perhaps a technologist out there somewhere can clarify that one ?
MAC I bought camembert cheese a couple of weeks ago, made from A2 herd of Guernsey cows. It was made on a small farm in Upper Moutere here in Nelson region. Best cheese we have had outside of France but also very expensive. Have a look at mouterehillsdairy.co.nz
It's for sale so you may want to buy it 😃
p.s have been looking myself 😳
I still can’t find any of that uncertainty, had a good look for some in the supermarket over the weekend, not even a skerrick;
All I could find was market share meters quietly ticking over in the background, a notch higher every day.
:)
Attachment 5776
A company is usually valued on the future value of discounted cash flows. ATM has done well breaking into extremely tough duopoly that is Coles Woolworths in Australia. But they are strongly cashflow negative, and do not have enough capital to develop their market push into the UK, let alone the US or China. Thus a capital raising in the medium term is a certainty.
In times more favourable for growth shares, and with the ATM share price around current levels, professional investors refused to pay more than 50c for new ATM shares. I am very sure that a professional investor today, when faced with a large capital investment proposal at ATM, would not pay any more than 50c. Just because a few people since the last capital raising have been prepared to pay a lot more than that for ATM shares does not mean the company is worth for than 50c. 50c represents an historic PE of over 40. That is more than has been paid for any food company in the history of the NZ sharemarket, except perhaps Forty Two Below.
If Australian competitors are worried, all they have to do is wait until the company bleeds more capital before striking. A loss of 1% market share in 2014 and 2015 is not a recipe to panic for big dairy players in Australia.
Excluding some SAAS companies, ATM is currently the most expensive share on the NZ market. Those who believe it is undervalued must assume it is a dead certainty for world domination, as I can't see any other way to justify a price near 80c. I don't wish to dish the ATM intellectual property and the nous of managment that has brought them their success to date. But as an investment prospect going forwards from now the best scenario outcome I can see at current prices is a huge capital loss for currrent shareholders in the medium term. If you believe in this company, why not just wait for the upcoming capital raising?
SNOOPY
looks like bad news for atm
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11250703
"Synlait said last week that the company and its customers were well prepared because they had sufficient stocks of product manufactured before May 1 - as well as stock held in China - to cover the period until it becomes registered after the completion of a new canning line at its Dunsandel plant next month. It appears that Synlait, which did not return calls yesterday, may now be relying solely on product already in the Chinese market."
:confused: surely being Chinese owned should help them out a bit.. ('lest I'm off the markt with this)
One would hope both ATM and Synlait make announcements today to clarify exactly what their situation is with regard to the MPI announcement yesterday.
Knox told exporters yesterday that the Chinese authorities had back-tracked on a previous advisory that all infant formula produced before May 1 could enter China, regardless of the manufacturer's registration status.
He said China had issued a notice on Sunday stating that all infant formula imported into the country must be produced by registered manufacturers.
Synliat was relying on this, therefore no atm milk powder can be exported to china - If you discount milk powder out of atm fundamentals for the foreseeable future it is way overvalued now, would expect a big selloff on this news
Yes we would hope an announcement from A2 today. Since this news was out yesterday afternoon before market close maybe if there is a panic sell off it won't be to bad.
from the ATM statement a few days ago it appears they have the stock in China now - "Currently there are sufficient levels of inventory of a2 Platinum(TM) infant formula held by our distribution partner China State Farm State to ensure consumer demand in China continues to be satisfied" - so as it stands they feel they have enough stock in China until the new plant is accredited. Flip side of the new rules of course is that the companies that do get approval now and in the future will face less competition from other brands in establishing themselves in the Chinese market
the stock in china now would be unable to be sold as it is not registered product or from registered manufacturer so atm will have to write it all off possibly if this dragged on for too long - they must be angry with synliat for not having there sh.t organised in timefor registration you think
The way I read this article http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11250373 is that product already cleared customs and in china is ok to be sold - as it stands now - of course if they change the rules again you might then be correct but the news from yesterday doesn't say that
Yes it is a fluid situation it would appear right now but the overriding thing to remember is that Chinese demand is skyrocketing - estimates are that Chinese annual baby formula consumption could reach $25 billion in 2016 up from $12 billion in 2012. The Chinese need international product for many years yet and at a growing rate so they can't get too restrictive.
Is there a problem ?
Attachment 5792
atm broke its uptrend yesterday
No but I've found a whole bunch of professional stock knockers.
seeing we in silly mode today
Warren's mate Charlie just popped in to have a look at this thread. Charlie saw that diagram and said its a great representation of one of his favourite phrases “When you are successful you will often find that is because you are competing against idiots, but luckily there is a large supply of them"
Nuff said for now
I wonder if it will affect ATM or whether they can prove their relationship/control with Synlait.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/10024157/Not-every-formula-brand-will-enter-China-Guy
Welcome to you Ghostrider68,
It’s entirely a storm in a glass of milk in summary.
It's unfortunate that the timing of Synlait's new packaging plant is not a month earlier, but ultimately there is virtually no immediate risk of any effect on ATM as infant formula is not only a very very small percentage of ATM's revenue, http://a2milk.com.au/ but they have told us that they have enough inventories in China with their distributor to ensure continuity of consumer demand during the regulatory process.
ATM and their processor Synlait have the close relationship that the regulators seek, and we may well imagine that they may even have had ATM in mind when they allowed for that ‘close association rule’. The joint quality assurance measures and association with ATM go all the way from individual cow protein testing through to the process output.
High ranking Chinese officials have visited Synlait farms and they also have good contacts and associations with the regulators http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/bus...boosts-Synlait
There are up to 90 brands of infant milk formula exported to China, I don't ultimately anticipate that it is the top tier premium quality brands like platinum with all the quality controls that ATM have that the regulators intend to filter out, it's the smaller almost garage operations with multiple branding that are most likely the concern to both the Chinese and to the reputation of the industry here for that matter.
many regards, Mac
I really like the look of ATM though have learnt in my brief period of investing not to get into a stock like this when there is uncertainty in the market. Would love to just put my long term hat on and buy in but I get the feeling that this is going to continue dropping for a few days yet so will try to get in a bit lower. It seems that if 74c is broken then it's a rapid slide to 65c.
Discl: got burnt buying PEB at an average of $1.40 (keeping the faith in this stock however...)
Only learning to read TA (any experts please feel free to correct me!) but it seems like this has picked up some serious downward momentum. MACD, OBV and DMI all looking terrible although RSI close to oversold. Least of all it has broken 200 day EMA as Snapiti mentioned.
I have learned to steer clear of picking bottoms, awfully dirty past-time.
Disc - never held ATM.
Self-progressed expert in all things and debunker of rubbish here.
I think you have hit the nail squarely on the head:
Definitely doing the flight of an early Wright Brothers attempt.
Given that MACD, OBV & DMI generally tell you which way the trend is going then no surprises there !
Remember with RSI it is the turn up out of the oversold level which is supposed to be a signal.
200EMA - that is just a KW thing !
Here in my part of the world there are little hand held water spray things in toilets to help with that sort of thing.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger