Bush is sending mixed signals to market just watch how the fed acts in the short term
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Bush is sending mixed signals to market just watch how the fed acts in the short term
As I commented in the Gartley Butterfly thread the kiwi is forming a better proportioned wing creature than the Aussie
Here I have modified the Gartley to 'idealize' the B and D points. Real prices themselves are not too far away. Tho B never went high enough D is still clawing for the correct D level.
I've added Fib time zones to the picture as well and it points to Oct 5th being the approximate turning point. Notice how A and C turned early tho.
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/873...007gartmm9.jpg
stalled a little at this gartley reversal zone maybe time for a breather
but being the kiwi probably not
Hi Peat
Yes, as we said on Sunday - so many levels reached on so many charts........surely has to be a sign. Maybe the power of the "herd behavior" bringing it all together.
I'll check out a couple of timing technqiues, - see if they correspond.
arco
Kiwi is raging buy right now I reckon
Gartley just completed on the 15 min
As you can see I've had couple of longs - first fdrom the 7605 level then closed one at C and set a limit which got triggered (pretty quickly ) while I slept - stop loss always at the 7585 levels http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/3...2007bm4.th.jpg
Let see if we get to 7660 quite quickly as the pattern suggests.
The longer this ranging action goes on the more likely that the eventual breakout (whichever way) will be more explosive.
so a maximum of 25 (very quick) pips on that trade was possible... but now its peeled back into the PPZ (profit protection zone) and I've closed it for minimal gain.....
I noted a bigger picture (1 hr candles) gartley possibility looking like D point might go as low as .7540 ish which may be playing out and counter to the smaller one I just tried.
Still, a reasonable trade tho imo - any trade that quickly goes into profit and offers the opportunity for some credit with minimal risk shouldnt be sniffed at.
As roddy says - back to the hatchery LOL
Morning All
We can see a definate Gartley shape forming with B382, and the current
high is 1618 wave A (or 1?). EW-wise this may be approaching the end of wave C(or 3?).
Direction has a south bias in the short/medium term IMO. Major Gann is still a little
way above, so we need to see a reversal confirmation signal before making any decision.
Heres a Pitchfork chart for a change, and you can definately see there
is potential for a Gartley termination (PRZ) around the PF centre tyne.
(PF in Red TBC = to be confirmed).
Peat - you appear to be scalping nicely with the short term BFs.
rgds - arco
Hi All
A complex situation with a potential Gartley in the wings. (see chart below)
(But, as we are well aware these can always fly on to become BFs).
So a little caution here until we can get a better idea. The EOD black candle
is certainly the longest down move for a while.
EW-wise.
Its not clear IMO if the Kiwi is in a 335 ABC, or if this is a new impulse.
it hit the 78% retracment of the slide since 1 PM - not a gartley in shape , only in level.
so back to where I first shorted it.... and have done it again at 7476 stop at 7510
Peat
We are on the same wavelength ...just posted this on ALERT
yes its a bit like taking candy off a baby today.... it isnt always like this tho
I've closed one of my trades at +46 as I know I would do this in real life - left one running.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10473078
The Reserve Bank continued easing up on intervention in the foreign currency market, buying a net $6 million last month, figures on the bank's website show.
That compares with the net $138 million the central bank sold in August, and the $1.5 billion it sold in July. The figure also includes liabilities of the Government's Debt Management Office.
The Reserve Bank's net short currency position, which it has said is a better reflection of its currency dealings, fell to $2.41 billion from $2.56 billion in August.
possibilty of trend weakening
78.6 reversal zone
possibity of shooting star on dailys not printed yet
divergence on rsi
yeh I agree with that zone DA, heres the gartley to support that notion
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/2...2007bk1.th.jpg
this picture coming to you from FXTrade!!
Quick work Peat on the Oa Trade
Whats the plan of attack tonight?
Peat/DB
Short term maybe a slight retrace because we are
being held up on a Gann point 7812, but I think there
could be a little more juice in the Kiwi before a major
ABC fall can take place. 8056....or higher perhaps.
rgds - arco
Updating the chart...............
....................IMO in the short/medium term there is still potential for
a move further into the dotted red square before we see a nice ABC correction.
.
.
arco
so it didnt quite reach our short target with the yellow bearish gartley(nearly tho)
and now perhaps its giving us a signal to long with the green bullish gartley. The RSI has reached oversold for the second time and shows divergence on the hourly here.
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/9...2007smaqj5.jpg
I have taken out a very small long at .7605 stop at 7560
which got blown out a few hours later.
when it bounced back up to my original entry point I shorted it (changed my direction) on the basis that the gartley failed as it went below X point.
stop at 7630 and have got some black ink tho its quite tenuous.
Also shouldnt really short term trade on Monday mornings when Oanda spreads are BIG.
closed @7520
+83 less the 40 I lost earlier.
so yeh I took a hit and learned the direction from that - only a small trade but has worked out okay.
also did a bigger one the Euro for +24 with those short term bearish gartleys that kept showing themselves today.
Its the demo account still , but I am taking it on board very seriously (that first failed trade really did hurt I swear! )
But I have just got confirmation of my fxtrade account being available and have now deposited funds tho these may take a day or two to show - soon, very soon twill be fo real
Hi Peat
Yes, that spread needs to be considered over the weekend as well.......I always widen stops if I have positions left running. Also if I trade on Mondays, I try to leave it until around mid-day when the spread goes back to normal.
The FX might not be moving as normal here tonight because I think the US are off today for the Veterans Day holiday.
arco
Further to post 820.
It appears that btw 12/10 to 13/11 the action may have produced a FLAT correction .....which means the retracment could now be over.......(DB is au fait with EW so he can perhaps have a look)
Its also possible the Kiwi print may come under the influence of a new emerging BF which if and when it plays out will create a potential new target circa 8250
If for any reason the price breaks below the recent Tweezer Bottom it could be that the last b-c leg is not compete. In that case the action could fall towards the higher end of the lower green box zone before heading to the target mentioned. (7280 is critical as lowest support).
rgds - arco
evening guys
in my count i have nzd in a double zig zag
currently in wave 1 of c of second zig zag
target 80 + or if momentum may carry to 82 +
it feels as though all majors ready for another run on usd imo
unfotunately i have wiped my data file for nzdusd from metastock so can only show last couple of months
emailed infoscan twice and they havent responded could anyone email a data file
DB
I can send you the NZD file if you can tell me where I can find it
rgds - arco
great arco
if you open nzdusd metastock graph
put your cursor on a candle and right click , select edit data
opens downloader and can copy spreadsheet
email to ancajoicey@yahoo.co.nz
thanks, paul
Hi DB
On its way to you now
rgds - arco
your a gentleman and a scholar
looks like possibity of wave 2 underway which if my count is applicable will allow a low risk
entry for wave 3 up
stop loss wave 1 low
possible entry around 50 - 61 retracement of wave 1
Hi DB
Checking for a potential turnaround wave 2 at the 618-786 Fibs.
(Gartley 382-618/786 perhaps??)
Low risk entry area 7490-7530 could be scaled in, or wait for reversal
pattern to appear. Current price 7532
Kiwi has given us around 70 pips so far off the trade idea
mentioned earlier today.
The daily chart looks very similar to Aussie, so in the short
term until the chart patterns becomes more clear longer term
positions are harder to predict with accuracy.
Taking decent size nibbles like we have today may be the way
to go until the situation is clearer IMO.
GTA - arco
a nibble for afternoon tea
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4...1112007yl9.jpg
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4...dcb3dcc203.jpg
imo currently running a 3rd wave of a c wave entered 7526 sl 7449
should hopefully run to about 7820 ish
still having problems getting my metastock nzd up and running but will post a chart soon
morning peat
yeah has been slow but worth the wait
morning chaps , being counting this one
i reckon this is shaping up for a look at a short
nice count currently starting a 3 of a c wave down
Hi All
Refer to chart in post 826.....
...............this is the continuation chart which shows if in the small blue Gartley (50-786) the 'b' leg is complete then there is the potential for a fall to the boxes below where we have a confluence of targets. 50% of the previous up wave (red Gartley) may be a point to look towards some support coming in. There could also be an element of support to break around .7560 where 2 old uptrend line merge.
After this event plays out expect the possibility of a reversal and a move further north IMO
rgds - arco
RBNZ leaves OCR unchanged at 8.25%
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain unchanged at 8.25 percent.
Governor Alan Bollard said “economic activity has occurred largely as outlined in the
September Monetary Policy Statement. Capacity pressures – particularly in the labour market
– remain significant, while the housing market has clearly slowed. A substantial income boost
is still expected to occur through 2008, as recent dairy price gains reach farmers.
Nevertheless, the outlook has changed somewhat due to recent developments. Oil prices,
which are nearly 30 percent higher than we assumed in September, and rapidly rising global
food prices are likely to result in headline inflation above 3 percent for much of next year. In
the medium term, despite ongoing fiscal surpluses, the likelihood of future personal tax cuts
adds to the inflation outlook.
There are considerable risks around our view. The price effects of the Government’s
proposed emissions trading scheme add upside risk to inflation. Global financial markets
remain unusually turbulent, posing significant downside risk for some of our key trading
partner economies.
Overall, inflationary pressures have increased, and interest rates are now likely to remain
around current levels for longer than previously thought. We believe that the current level of
the OCR remains consistent with future inflation outcomes of 1 to 3 percent on average over
the medium term, based on the information to hand at present.”
nzd usd up and running again
id view this trade as pretty low risk , count valid untill 77.60 breached
short 76.99 sl 77.65 target 74.30
Evening DB
Drop Leg Gartley 50-786 on the 4 hour adds fuel
to the fire IMO.............
arco
No reversal signal appeared on the possible 4hr drop leg Gart, in fact is seems the previous bullish Gartley 382-618 from 26th Nov is still in play and could head off towards 112-127 of XA where it should find resistance approachng the bear flag upper channel line. This in turn will create a potential bearish Gart 50-786 from 31st Oct
Patience Grasshopper, patience.....
i allways take it up the ass from the kiwi
****ing stupid little bird
DB
For a bird that cant fly it did well last night.
Anyway, you should be able to reclaim your loss and gain more....... shortly.
Clearly the 'b' leg was not quite complete at that point shown on the last chart.....so we still await the confirmation of a reversal.
Kiwi could still give us the potential to grab upto 400 pips..........awaiting the signal
perhaps soon?
line 89 is a duplicate of 88
http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/5...2007mq0.th.jpg
Evening Peat
Yes, an interesting time for NZD.
The small blue Gartley is still a possibility at 50/886,
but we are still awaiting reversal confirmation.
__________________________________________
REINZ Data just in shows strong housing activity in Nov with a record median house price at NZD352k - can't be encouraging for those looking for a rate cut by the RBNZ who already face inflationary pressure from the dairy boom, increasing energy and fuel costs and food inflation.
The market was expecting to see some confirmation of the anecdotal slow down in the housing sector from these numbers so this positive figure would add fuel to perceptions that we see the RBNZ on a tightening rather than easing bias - supportive of a stronger NZD.
FOMC meet tomorrow with a probable rate cut in the US of at least 25bps.
hi peat , i guess one feasible outcome is an expanded flat taking the b wave to the
butterfly completion at 79.80
Evening DB
Yes anythings possible, and with the FOMC meet tomorrow and a probable rate cut in the US of at least 25bps that widening yield could be supportive of a stronger NZD.
yes strong fundys for sure.
kiwi has been ranging for a few months now between .75 and .79 , possibly due for a buy again anytime
Quote:
Originally Posted by NZHerald
This is what academics write.... :confused:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/dis...rs/dp08_02.pdf
A lot of complicated maths but I'm not sure it was all worth it - the final paragraph conclusion doesnt really say much
5
Conclusions
This paper considers how certain data and monetary policy surprises have influenced the New Zealand dollar since 2000. As part of the investigation of the impact of monetary policy surprises, we rely on a variable that is not published (or even internally produced) by most central banks, namely the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forward interest rate track. In addition, we consider whether difference sources of announcements that have a bearing on the exchange rate, both of the verbal and quantitative varieties. We conclude that news does affect the exchange rate.
In particular, we find that ‘bad’ inflation news, that is, an expectation
of a rise in future inflation, is ‘good’ news for the exchange rate, a finding that mirrors the one reported by Clarida andWaldman (2007).
More importantly perhaps,we do not conclude that the publication of an interest rate track represents central bank transparency gone too far insofar as the surprise element of such data dissipates rather quickly. Other news events, especially macro data announcements such as developments in the current account, potentially have a much larger impact on the exchange rate. We also find that the RBNZ has done a good job of minimizing the impact of surprises but that monetary policy announcements tend to have a permanent effect on the exchange rate. We take this as evidence that the RBNZ is credible. The evidence in this paper relies on an event study approach.
It is conceivable that a time series approach might yield additional insights into the high frequency determinants of the exchange rate. We leave this extension to future research.
PC crappaid for by us
Weldon summed it up in the herald this morning. Continuing the hawkish interest rate policy will sell NZ to foreigners as happened after the 1987 crash. Clearly since we stopped fixing the exchange rate, the RBNZ should at least set interest rates against international players - they have ceased to be a unique control of domestic activity or prices.
They are working on a dead paradigm. High interest rates contribute to domestic inflation. NZ's world beating interest rates rob kiwis to pay foreigners, and make kiwi companies uncompetitive because their cost of capital is prohibitive. Hence to survive they must go overseas and eventually the jobs go too. An efficient capital system is essential. The NZX is dying (actually a bit like the the US recession - already happened just not declared yet)
Control of the NZ economy has to be through balanced financial measures designed to maximise NZers Long term wealth (in the widest sense). Screwing up interest rates until the ship sinks is dumb. Jumping on band wagons like Kyoto without being able to negotiate terms appropriate to us is dumb - our delay costs us and the world nothing.
Items in finite supply will appreciate in value. Oil, water, food, useful energy, good land, nice places to live, etc. NZ has these in bucket loads but we continue to go backwards against others in the OECD. The trick to me seems to be to direct capital and other resources into productive activity. Interest rates can't do that on their own. Our whole society becomes more and more "short term focussed" the higher our interests rates go. You don't need economic consultants to improve the situation. A little applied common sense would go a long way.
(Cullen has killed the NZ economy. Sqeezed the life blood out of it. Perhaps his fund can now by NZ back although that would be contrary to declared intention and therefore not PC. One assumes that he will continue to send more of our devalued currency overseas to support their economies.
The economists will teach in a few years time that previous learned theories were BS and now we have new ones which must be right.
A monetarist will have worked out that the money supply has been increasing through these margin facilities, and dodgy credit schemes, Japan's zero interest rates and carry trades, every economy in the world printing cash, all contributing to asset inflation in those countries relying on state of the art economic theories and the dying concept where supply always increases to meet demand and lower prices.
On a similar vein...
I liked an article from a foreign academic (unfortunately I lost the reference and the full article is a bit big to post) "
Some Aspects of the Future Supply of Oil
Professor Ferdinand E. Banks
January 18, 2008
The University of Uppsala, Uppsala Sweden
The School of Engineering, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok Thailand "
"Saudi Arabia is still regarded as the primary exporter of oil to the main oil importing countries, and my contention both here and elsewhere is that a demonstrable willingness on their part to steadily increase output over the foreseeable future is perhaps the most bizarre fantasy ever put into circulation by the International Energy Agency (IEA)."
He contends that the Arabs are looking for long term wealth and will maximise their oil production to that extent.
Smacks of "a little bit of work life balance" economics to me. The more pay to the working wealthy implies the less work they need to do. The more money your house earns the less productive work you need to do...the higher the price people will pay for oil, the less you need to pump.
Anyway, one academic coming up with something worthwhile, more than we see from these guys for the RBNZ. What question were they asked to answer?
PC crappaid for by us
Weldon summed it up in the herald this morning. Continuing the hawkish interest rate policy will sell NZ to foreigners as happened after the 1987 crash. Clearly since we stopped fixing the exchange rate, the RBNZ should at least set interest rates against international players - they have ceased to be a unique control of domestic activity or prices.
They are working on a dead paradigm. High interest rates contribute to domestic inflation. NZ's world beating interest rates rob kiwis to pay foreigners, and make kiwi companies uncompetitive because their cost of capital is prohibitive. Hence to survive they must go overseas and eventually the jobs go too. An efficient capital system is essential. The NZX is dying (actually a bit like the the US recession - already happened just not declared yet)
Control of the NZ economy has to be through balanced financial measures designed to maximise NZers Long term wealth (in the widest sense). Screwing up interest rates until the ship sinks is dumb. Jumping on band wagons like Kyoto without being able to negotiate terms appropriate to us is dumb - our delay costs us and the world nothing.
Items in finite supply will appreciate in value. Oil, water, food, useful energy, good land, nice places to live, etc. NZ has these in bucket loads but we continue to go backwards against others in the OECD. The trick to me seems to be to direct capital and other resources into productive activity. Interest rates can't do that on their own. Our whole society becomes more and more "short term focussed" the higher our interests rates go. You don't need economic consultants to improve the situation. A little applied common sense would go a long way.
(Cullen has killed the NZ economy. Sqeezed the life blood out of it. Perhaps his fund can now by NZ back although that would be contrary to declared intention and therefore not PC. One assumes that he will continue to send more of our devalued currency overseas to support their economies.
The economists will teach in a few years time that previous learned theories were BS and now we have new ones which must be right.
A monetarist will have worked out that the money supply has been increasing through these margin facilities, and dodgy credit schemes, Japan's zero interest rates and carry trades, every economy in the world printing cash, all contributing to asset inflation in those countries relying on state of the art economic theories and the dying concept where supply always increases to meet demand and lower prices.
On a similar vein...
I liked an article from a foreign academic (unfortunately I lost the reference and the full article is a bit big to post) "
Some Aspects of the Future Supply of Oil
Professor Ferdinand E. Banks
January 18, 2008
The University of Uppsala, Uppsala Sweden
The School of Engineering, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok Thailand "
"Saudi Arabia is still regarded as the primary exporter of oil to the main oil importing countries, and my contention both here and elsewhere is that a demonstrable willingness on their part to steadily increase output over the foreseeable future is perhaps the most bizarre fantasy ever put into circulation by the International Energy Agency (IEA)."
He contends that the Arabs are looking for long term wealth and will maximise their oil production to that extent.
Smacks of "a little bit of work life balance" economics to me. The more pay to the working wealthy implies the less work they need to do. The more money your house earns the less productive work you need to do...the higher the price people will pay for oil, the less you need to pump.
Anyway, one academic coming up with something worthwhile, more than we see from these guys for the RBNZ. What question were they asked to answer?
on the 3 hour chart , technically (using a gartley approach) , the kiwi and the ozzie are buys with stops below .75 and .868
heres the chart for the kiwi - the bullish gartley is close to the ideal scenario with a .618 retracement followed by a rally and then another retracement to .78. Timewise the gartley is a bit stunted but price should always overrule time. The only other negative is that an AB=CD would take the kiwi down to .7477
I think that arco's advice might be good here i.e to wait for confirmation of an uptrend as the size of the pattern is large enough to still make it tradeable when it gets going , tho I have a very small ozzie long already with more toe dipping a bit lower.
Morning Peat
The Kiwi idea looks reasonable as I see the action might try a
test of the broken TL (and 200 sma) before falling to circa 7288 perhaps.
rgds - arco
ok so you dont think its going to go as far as I was..... still if it was traded with a rising stop could still produce useful pips
interestingly I already had a fib level with a 261 extension at your 7288 level
Peat
Trailing is a good idea IMO.
Perhaps 7750+/- is possible if there is a trendline intersect.
arco +
Bank of America
buy kiwi but sell two days close below 75.27
Citigroup
sell kiwi but buy at 78.2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...rld_currencies
...... interesting Peat.
Heres my idea on a chart.......currently waiting for the
confirmation turnaround candle for a little long and 100 +/- pips.
(Then there could be a nice reversal short in 5 legs for 400-600 pips)
---------PTZ .7288.....or possibility of lower towards .7150
Just took a 100 pips on the EY - so off to a nice start this week so far.
GTA - arco
At the moment we only have 3 major contributors to the Forex section.
The FX side would appear to be in serious decline.......
But what i find amazing is that 50 people have read this NZD thread since I posted last night but not one has even made a comment - good, bad or indifferent.
A forum suvives because of its contributers......
So lurkers.....if you find the forum helpful, interesting of even plain boring - it perhaps might be a good idea to make a contribution (however small) before the few remaining posters leave for good.
arco
So those who still talk of the NZD/USD climbing back to the 80s in the near term due to NZ retaining current interest rates and US dropping theirs, are possibly being over-optimistic?
I find it really interesting, but don't post because I don't know enough, I would love to be able to make a living trading on the foreign exchange market, and mayeven have enough mobney, but I don't have the knowledge really, yet!
It seems to me though the Kiwi will stay strong against the dollar for quite a while, isn't the dollar weak against nearly all currencies world wide?
Has'nt the US governement borrowed to the hilt, to pay for the war on Iraq, which is really an excuse for George w bush, to pay companies his mates own, heaps of money stolen from the US govt, and at the same time allow the price of oli to go hugely high, which again helps his oil mates from Texas.
DoctorG
Welcome.
If you decide to trade currencies you can chose to work with the fundamental issues, or trade using charting techniques. I work on the latter and that suits my style perfectly.
Trust you will stay around and post any queries you have regarding the currencies. There are a number of fundamentally orientated people here that can perhaps give you more on those issues than I can, but I'm happy to answer any charty questions you may have.
rgds - arco
Steve
this would be the 'fundamental' reason for the kiwi sell-off
the world scenario is blowing up a little bit with carry trades now being out of favour so yeh a bit of dumping going on.Quote:
Originally Posted by NZHerald
Steve
I'm probably not the best person to answer fundamentally,
so perhaps someone else can make a comment on that.
However,
have a gander at the Ichi chart......the Kumo support which
has held so long has been broken on the daily, with the weekly
already into the cloud.
rgds - arco
I've been sitting on the sidelines of FX forum for some time.
Not due to disinterest....just lack of quality input(on my part).
As I mentioned when I first joined this forum, I tend to invest with long-term fundamentals at my back in case a trade goes sour....unfortunately i'm finding it harder to understand the fundamentals.
the more I dig, the more confused I become.....
I don't know if it's a case of "analysis paralysis" or a case of realizing that the more I learn, the less I really know.
I've listened to compelling arguments that support both the substantial rise and substantial fall of the Kiwi against the greenback recently......Retaining or conservatively growing my purchasing power globally is my objective for the foreseeable future.....HOW to achieve that objective(from the FX angle) is yet to be determined! :)
lakedaemonian
I have to admit I get pretty confused with all that fundi info out there,
so that why I stick to the charts. Better the devil you know ......
With charts you have a game plan..........with fundi's, it a case
of too many possibilities IMO
arco
Before zooming north overnight the action ventured
into the PTZone (lower pink box) shown on the last
chart - a little quicker than expected. We could now
be seeing the test of the broken TL mentioned.
Watching for a possible reversal off that point
this was a risky but satisfying scalp and 10+11+15 = 36 pips.
theres so often something to be had off a 78% retracement
this is how I'm seeing it on the 15minute. First a W and now an M
I have small longs already placed but the next buy order at the 78% retracement .7765. Price did go there twice earlier so may not again - and was very close to filling a few minutes ago.
Stops at -30 for each trade.
You are certainly a bold fella Peat..............especially with where things are at the moment, awaiting the fed decision. :-)
the risk is well quantified FTG
the trade meets my criteria so....
I believe that announcement is not till 830 our time tomorrow - a 30 pip stop might be too tight when that happens.
7764 order now filled as well.
see how it goes.
closed the main order (largish for me) +48 -
chickens left to run.
Well done Sir!
I must admit it was the 30 pip stop that had ???? for me, but hey it has worked just fine for you!
nailed it peat and time for a cup of tea before the fed
well done
and the chickens came home to roost +100 while I was at the dentist.
no fillings either so a good start to the day. :D
Peat
nice trade and the trading you have been doing of late Peat could of paid for quite a bit of dentistry!
peat you said
>the risk is well quantified FTG
>the trade meets my criteria so...
i have just reread john j Murphy's classic Technical analysis of the financial Markets 1999 ed
and in it he echoes the same words of having a trading system or as you put it meeting a criteria!
i am still lacking discipline in this area but can only improve
cheers
roddy
Trading very flat at the moment but am bullish on the Kiwi for the moment. Feeling bearish on the US at the moment but it is not falling very quickly. So i will be in for a long trade. Almost a US carry trade. Fundamentally the US will be under pressure for a while and interest rates may have another cut at the next fed meeting. The Kiwi interest rates are still may have 1 more upside.
last week was just compression so could become more interesting when the range breaks.
looking back over the last couple of weeks since my last post, the compression broke falsely twice in the first week , but last week clearly demonstrated its intentions. with a price gap on Monday and has reached the mid 82s (as suggested by Arco last November) and then decisively turned.
I'm trying to interpret the candles on the 27th and 28th (the third and second to last ones in the picture) and at first I thought a shooting star followed by a doji, hence bearish signs but upon further investigation a shooting star should close lower than it opened and my 27th candle is green not red
Also the 28th was a doji-ish (only 10 pips diff betw open and close) but altho technically that was actually a bullish dragonfly doji. Tho in general a doji represents indecision and a potential reversal - wasnt really going to reverse up from 82). So even in hindsight the signals were a bit cloudy.
in the bigger long term tho - this graph is monthly - it seems that there should be a lot of support in the 70's (yes I know thats potentially a 1000 pips down) but this is a monthly perspective.
In late 1996 and early 1997 the .7 area was resistance and 9 years later (after going as low as .4) then in 2004 and 2005 .7 and .75 were resistance areas again. But we've decisively breached that area in the last year or two so they (the mid to low 70s) supposedley become support levels, and while they might be tested again , if they were to hold could point the way to even greater highs over the very long term.
These are my thoughts looking on a quiet Sunday afternoon - not really a trading strategy but stepping back a bit to see the big picture.
It is sobering to think that the NZD/USD has gone from 0.4 to 0.8 in the past 7yrs!
No wonder I gave up trying to export while the domestic lads were doing it so easily...and then the labour government poured increased taxes and interest rates onto us...not only me I guess, you would have to had a considerable competitive advantage (or no USD exposure) to have survived a change of this magnitude over a short time like this.
When will the market start pricing in a NZ interest rate drop?
Is it not breaking 20 day MA now??
Hi All
Been a while away from forex for me, but back in now.
Taken this short a couple of times over the last 48 hours
behaving nicely
looking to penetrate the double bottom on the hourly at .7925 or reverse on a bounce
gta
slam
PS may get a third (c) wave of the FIB first
quoting the herald quoting Bollard
"Despite increased global risk aversion, it is not yet evident that the carry trade is dead. We have still seen a relatively strong issuance in the New Zealand dollar in recent months via uridashi bonds, for example.
"The role that hedge funds can play at the stage where an over-valued exchange rate begins to adjust back to a more normal level is also unclear. Whether hedge funds assist the adjustment process or whether they make it more abrupt and costly is debatable."
Trade still open
moving nicely at 120+ pips
anyone else playing this pair?
Cheers
Slam
i'm still running a short kiwi vs AUD, slam, from 1480 . currently 1610
pulled back a bit last night tho....
running that one to peat
should bounce from here imo ( I'm long AUD/NZD)
gta slam
Tickled and failed at 82 again today. Very volatile, but could it be topping or preparing for a run up tp 85?
Got well and truly stopped on last weeks short
and missed this weeks:(
Maybe get next weeks:)
Cheers
Slam
With the latest NZ data released showing that the economy is slowing down fast, it is now considered unlikely that the NZDUSD will test a new high, so possibly time to consider a decent short?
My thoughts too. Dailies are showing a descending triangle with the floor at 0.785...