Nobody comparing HLG and MFT…. Lol
A comment only that MFT is falling back to TREND…
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Thats why I suggested preferring buying MFT at current levels ...which is below its long term averages then HLG / TRA ..which are over their long term averages but many including u thought its not a good idea ...many cheer leaders were singing the Legend's tune that HLG etc will go much higher while ignoring the fact that its already over long term trend ...now the risks associated with it can materialise anytime ...and they did with what FM is posting ...wage pressures in difficult retail conditions ...MFT has come below its long term trend due to growth slowing ...which will effect retail sector too ...though with a lag ...So IMHO it was more safer to invest in already corrected blue chip then more risky retail flyers ....albeit good ones ...I do acknowledge HLG / TRA are good picks at right times
PS : Please recheck MFT charts mate ...it's not falling back to long term trend ....it's already below its long term averages and thus was the case when I made my preferences known here .
Alokdhir… just wait mate, I’ve got another company that is risky but HUGE upside potential that I’ll be highlighting soon. Just need to finish buying. You’ll love it :)
Alokdhir ….fwiw I reckon long term trend would have MFT share price at about 50 bucks these days
After going thru the messages on other forum its become clearer and confirmed in my mind what transpired ....almost copy cat WHS pop !!!
Legends are only in our mind ....in reality they are also human ...
But its easy to fall for the ramping when first part of it comes true then most expect the second part also will happen ...alas !
Many on other side are justifying the ethics of it as " trading chance " ...DYOR stuff or what not ....
But to my simple and " Donkey " mind ...it's not good look ethically ....but then all can have different definitions of ethics too
U are always very forthright in your actions ...appreciate and respect that mate :t_up:
This was posted by Fiordland Moose here on 19-05-2023 on the thread Hotcopper guy gets jail sentence.
Trust FM does not mind me posting it.
The Internet has given investors many excellent sources for doing due diligence on the thousands of stocks available for purchase. But for many investors, finding trustworthy sources of information about a particular company can be challenging.
One source that many investors look to for reliable information on a company is the various stock discussion boards and forums. While some of these research sources can be helpful, many of these discussion boards and forums have dangerous elements to them.
Almost all stock forums contain slithery characters that have insidious hidden motives when posting their comments. Some of these forum posters are so clever at what they do, even the most sophisticated investor can make a bad buy or sell decision based on the poster’s deceiving posts on the forums. Recall that even the CEO of Whole Foods was caught posting in an insidious fashion on a company's stock forum.
One slimy character in particular to be vigilant of is the omnipresent stock ramper. S/he can be found on almost every discussion board / forum and too many times investors can make bad buy decisions by following the ramper’s misguided advice.
Remember, the anonymity of the Internet should make you skeptical of what anyone says if you don’t know who they are. Before making a buy or sell decision on a stock, make sure you are dealing with a reliable source. And if that source is an anonymous stock forum poster, that source is rarely reliable.
Here are 15 ways you can identify the stock discussion board ramper. I’ve seen the same behaviors in the stock rampers across many stock forums. Once you know the warning signs, you can learn to spot the ramper much more easily:
1. The rampers post exorbitant stock price predictions.
2. The rampers warn others they better get in now or else. Their "buy now" posts almost sound like threats.
3. They attack those who disagree with their lofty predictions. They cannot back up their arguments with a rational discussion, so they resort to petty name calling and telling others who disagree with them that they are "full of it."
4. They are not open minded. You cannot have an intelligent discussion with these types. They will do whatever they can to discredit those who disagree with them by spreading false information. They are very often antagonistic.
5. They post their predictions over and over and over desperately hoping to move the market. They never do, because what they say is insignificant to the market. That is because no one knows who they are (see below).
6. The rampers rarely (if ever) backs up their predictions with concrete, specific numbers - if they do, projected sales numbers are way beyond what the company, analysts, and industry insiders say is realistic. But somehow, according to them, even people in the company are overly PESSIMISTIC when it comes to their own sales projections.
7. They post anonymously - they are no-names in the financial world or the particular industry that the company is involved in. Credible people who make lofty stock price predictions will often post their real names – or link to articles they have published - so others can get a feel for their pedigree and can research their background. The vast majority of credible stock market heavyweights do not post in discussion forums. If they do, they usually tell people who they are and can prove it.
8. Oftentimes the rampers are hired by boiler room operations. Their pay grade is whatever you could imagine a company would pay someone to post on Internet forums – not much above minimum wage.
9. Rampers often talk of a fictitious track record in predictions - legends in their own mind. They rattle off all their past “accurate” predictions including that the sun was going to rise in the east today.
10. It is obvious that the rampers have an agenda on the discussion board. They are not objective about the financial environment, the company, management, etc. Their posts carry the same one-sided theme. Bad news is good news in reverse. Any good news (even modest good news) is an affirmation of how the stock is going to appreciate to incredible levels shortly.
11. They appear to be rabid on their support of the company – beyond a reasonable amount of enthusiasm, the ramper comes across as almost crazed in his/her excitement.
12. Rampers are egotistical, and it comes across in their posts. Anyone who does not agree with them is an “idiot,” even those who are esteemed in their respective field. They are not respectful of those who disagree with their predictions.
13. When the stock is on a run, the ramping intensifies – the stock is “going to the moon.” This, incidentally, is often a great time to sell the stock. Remember, no one every went broke taking profits.
14. When the stock is in a lull, the ramping may intensify in a desperate attempt to do a quick pump and dump scheme.
15. The ramper will unceremoniously dump the stock when their mission has been accomplished. Those remaining in the stock are now deemed to be “bagholders” by the pumper.
The rampers continue their agenda over and over. It happens on every stock discussion board – especially on penny stock boards, when pump and dump operators and boiler room operators feel they can have an impact on a thinly traded stock.
Fortunately, with practice, we can learn to spot the ramper once we know the red flags. With experience, you get an intuitive feel about various posters on the Internet – even with the anonymous nature of these stock forums.
Learn to spot the slithery ramper, and you'll be a better investor.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Good post Percy.
I like to think this counts me out as I have been negative on most post.
Playing devil's advocate. Is it upto the individual to decide which company to invest in. I think it is the very core of decision making that the person completes their own due diligence before investing in a company.
Anecdotally I have seen SP land at prices that were quoted on sites like Motley Fools. I can only assume certain investors don't bother to read the financials and weight their decisions according to what these sites recommend. If so you have to ask the question, what DD have these investors have done. I acknowledge what you are saying in that there will be posters that they will have their own agenda. But at the end of the day, a person has to decide if a company is worth investing in. If they decided to only go off what is stated on a public forum. Their decision making process has to be questioned.
Like I said it is good that you have raised this issue.
another aussie retailer just had a trading update baby bunting
The key Storktake promotional event, which has recently commenced, has seen trading both instores and online well below expectations during this short period. Since launch, sales have beenunprecedentedly low, with comparable store sales of around negative 21.0%. If this trendcontinues, the Company expects FY23 sales to be in range of $509 million to $513 million andcomparable store sales to be negative 4.0% to negative 5.0%
https://cloud.weblink.com.au/smallca...ticleID=376820
things must be tough aus
Those are horrifying same store sales figures but to be fair I reckon they have a lot of company specific issues. 1) given the rapidly evolving cost of living crisis in Australia over recent weeks & months (rent, utilities, food, student loans - not to mention mortgage rates for non youth customers), I'd have thought a lot given the high upfront cost of Baby Bunting products (strollers, cribs, carseats, etc) a lot of customers will be looking for hand me downs from family and friends or looking to buy second hand. A lot of HMD's and 2nd hands are near as good but a fraction the cost of new. 2) this segment seems rife for disruption from amazon.com.au, more so than fast fashion.
that said I am feeling less fringe in my views in how the retail landscape is evolving following a wide range of financial press articles on the woes the australian retail and australian youth fashion sector are encountering in recent weeks.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-m...0230608-p5df5l
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-m...0230530-p5dcc2
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers...0230604-p5ddsc
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/t...0230528-p5dbug
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail...0230602-p5dde8
That shud be very concerning to many holding retail stocks like HLG ...which has a very narrow exit door too ...low vols will make it very difficult to exit if one decides thats the best way NOW
Continuous supplier just over $ 6 is drip feeding the market at the moment ....but one can hold on for the dividends and another up move on other side of this retail recession which is about to eventuate .
People were very brave to get into retail dreams when all other signs were pointing towards retail domino to fall soon then latter ...
think there is still some funds soaking up the selling thats why price holding up , time will catch up eventually to reality though
Many people on this forum claimed that being included in the index would be the catalyst to push the price up to $8. Funny how they were so confident in their posts and yet, it hasn't happened.
Not many people, just a small group consisting of the usual suspects. Did you fall for them?
Lets face it - we knew that outcome beforehand, didn't we? - it is always the same pattern.
Index inclusion: Hype, more hype, ramping, SP peaks at inclusion day, SP drops. Might end up a bit higher (obviously subject to the companies financials), though, given that Index inclusion typically means more ongoing analyst coverage.
Index exclusion: Hype, more hype, down ramping, SP bottoms at exclusion day, SP recovers afterwards (obviously subject to the companies financials).
Index inclusion and exclusion are typically just interesting events for traders exploiting the hype waves.
Important learning exercise: Never trust rampers - they have their personal agendas and probably selling at peak hype (and buying at low hype).
retail figures out today pretty horendous
Retail spending dropped for the first time this year in May, showing the growing pressure on households’ finances.
The largest contributor to the fall in retail card spending was fuel, down $25m (4.5%), followed by apparel, down $13m (3.7%).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132...time-this-year
Balance your claim that HLG is undervalued is a perfectly justifiable opinion. Your claim that HLG would go to $8 as a result of the being included in the NZX50? Well that hasn't happened, and your posts made it seem like there was no chance it wouldn't. In other words, you were wrong about HLG just like you were wrong about OCA having a capital raise.
There are those of us who post our expectations of where prices are heading - not to ramp*
but
to signal and articulate our beliefs where we believe the prices are going to be due to significant & price sensitive developments.
* Sure there are those who post prices to ramp (be them up or down) but it is surely up to posters and readers to figure out who are the rampers and BS artists on this (or any) site!
FYI, my last purchase of HLG was $6.57 after the indexing announcement as I fully expected HLG to hit $8.00 for the reasons I articulated. It did not but the trajectory of the sp was as expected.
I posted this on PEB post the LCD decision/announcement :
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...e-Ltd/page2090
PEB has been trading at 10c (albeit earlier than I expected) and I was very surprised that there were people who jumped in and bought shares at 15c on the day (50% more!).
In the end, as I have written ValueNZ, I sincerely believe you have a problem and you either deal with it or live with it for your own betterment.
And oh yes, beware of some of the posters here who warn you of rampers etc. You ever see them post anything of substance or conviction?
Feel free to articulate your beliefs, but this is an open forum and if you make short term price predictions seem like a sure thing, you should expect other posters to point it out when you're wrong.
The problem with short term price predictions is they are very hard to be right about consistently, since markets often act in ways which aren't expected. Since claims that share prices will return to fair value in a short time frame are practically impossible to be correct about consistently, the claims should be scrutinised when they are made.
I suppose if you consider critical thinking and engaging in debate a problem, yes I have a problem.
STr would be a pretty boring place if people didnt have a crack at where the SP will go... it generates debate. its healthy for a forum.
If someone posts a target price based on the information known at that point in time AND they articulate their reasons.... have a rebuttal then. Not a month later when in hindsight it was the wrong call
That industry u talking about provide longer term targets then they can hide behind some events which happen during that period ...only if target missed ...otherwise they claim credit ...Like Balance showed two examples ...HLG didnt work out as thought ...but PEB did play out as he forecast ....same goes for his RYM capital raise expectations coming true while OCA call didnt happen ...so 50% success as per these 4 examples ....maybe better then many of the paid industry people ...
But what ValueNZ is highlighting ...short term targets and confidence of that happening ....
HLG was a retail company ...though a well managed one ...so when all Gurus were anticipating recession round the corner ( from expectation of MFT reaching $50 even ...maybe safe to assume people thought DEEP recession ) but somehow they were predicting HLG over $ 10 ...why ? They were doing retail business in some other Universe ?? Recession for MFT shud eventuate into recession for HLG also ...sooner or latter ...imo
lol if a person can generate above average returns they are not going to work for someone
You've been on this forum since 2003 and yet still are of the belief that predicting where the share price is going to go in a short time frame is beneficial to your investments. Traders overall cannot beat the sp500 for long periods of time. Those with a long term investment horizon (at a minimum ten years), are patient and are able to regulate their emotions in a way to ignore, or take advantage of market fluctuations are the ones who are able to beat the sp500.
Good on you! Then you know exactly who to avoid and who not to, right?
So why are you so worked up about price expectations? :D
Works for me but obviously not for you so best you ignore them.
I have 3 posters on my ignore list and trust me, it’s most satisfying not to see the garbage they post.
It’s that simple.
Won't hear anything from HLG until August when they will tell us what full year sales and profit have been been .... and the share price is just in a holding pattern at the moment
When they say sales have continued to be pretty strong and profit is about $40m I reckon the share price will head over $7
Come end of September when they confirm that guidance and say the start of the F24 year has been ahead of pcp and announce a 28 cent final divie the share price might even get to $8 in October/November .... and still be relatively cheap
That's how I see things playing out
ValueNZ has a problem alright.
Being one of the VERY few around here that has a clue and is capable of and willing to call out the shysters, being very young, and probably having the ability to compound capital at reasonable rates for a very long time, the problem is going to be what to do with all the money.
BGP ...another well run dividend income company keeps making new 52 week lows ...also on p/e of 10 ...but market not impressed as yet ...Maybe HLG has more traction because of different profile and different geography customers ??
If recession or fear of recession can hit BGP hard why HLG will be spared is a question which I cant answer myself ...
Maybe Super Guru W69 can help here as he seems pretty confident of HLG doing well ahead !!!
I recall Tim Glasson commenting years ago that HLG operates in the value-for-money up-to-date fashion space - not high end and expensive like many of its fashion competitors.
That will be one reason why its business is a lot more resilient than say, David Jones for example.
I don't worry about one quarter or one year earnings. We can't get any idea from one year earnings. I am comfartable with at least 5 years of earnings. Do you think, they will have reasonable market share over the coming 5 years. Going forward strong competitors will knock out weak competitors. Thanks.
No comment.
“ Another day, another retailer revealing sliding earnings. This time it is discounted clothing group Best & Less, whose sales have fallen 13.2 per cent in the past five weeks.”
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/best...0230620-p5dhvd
Fear factor grips retailers as sales slow. A sharp slide in sales is forcing retailers to accelerate discounting and promotions amid warnings that the downturn in consumer spending could be deeper than during the early 1990s recession.
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail...0230614-p5dgiy
Imo part of the clothing spend will be reassigned to buying clothing while overseas on holiday.
Wfh meant we dont need to physically interact as much. Therefore less need to update the wardrobe. Although I do accept to there is a greater push to have workers back into the office more often.
Dollar General and Citi Trends from the states. Both in the discount segment showed similar metrics a few weeks ago.
I mentioned previously footlocker have a tonne of inventory and have been discounting since boxing day.
Go you little beauty. Winner over on Stock Talk must be right. all the young ladies will be flocking into Glasson stores to make themselves look good for the Taylor Swift next year:t_up:
The new HLG CEO?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...400/398129.pdf
yup.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414402
quick turnaround by HLG in the appointment.
looks like a very solid numbers guy.
Well lets hope NZ operations doesnt feel the cold wind in this report...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132...ear-of-closure
Does KMD views about economy has any impact on HLG business ...I shud think so ...But SP does not think so at present ....maybe soon
Die hard supporter has reduced earnings expectations ....shud mean something
But many including myself were already mentioning difficult times ahead ..." Writing On The Wall "
Wait until after August. Or if it gets below a certain price. Went past Glasson and hall. today in Dress Mart Onehunga, both stores looked pretty busy. Last week went past Glassons Sylvia Park and it looked pretty busy with mums and teenage daughters Shopping. Sylvia Park was very busy. I bought dress boots at Hallensteins. Guess who was singing on the big screen at back of shop in Glassons. Yes none other but Taylor Swift :t_up:.
The rocket has been refuelled, and lifting off
I wonder why
Maybe some Aussie outfit getting interested
Beagle getting primed up again
Full year update in a few weeks …..should be pretty good
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EQOGCJDUDWFRI/
Will any pressure come back on Hlg. They did very well out of this.
They won’t be paying it back ….they fall back on what the Professors said that fompanies received the wage subsidy were justified to get it from legal, ethical and moral perspectives.
And they did well out the Oz government as well
mostly gone to shareholders anyway
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415694
Been naughty....
So $75,000 plus costs for being ‘negligent’ ……..and publishing untruths in Annual Reports
These things happen sometimes when a few fuddy duddies (though they weren’t too fussy) like Bell, Popplewell and Ford hang around for decades …become complacent
Whatever not a good look governance wise …..the Directors should front up with cash and not put the burden on shareholders
No its just the NZX wanting to get some morning tea money as they ran the float cash tin down...
You'd think with the focus from RegCo on director's status that HLG would have the right directors listed on its website in the inventor centre....off by 2...one long gone and another new one. doesn't matter much NZX & coy office are correct and the ones that matter & not sure the investor centre gets much traffic (unlike its instagram)
https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/about-us
Not sure the TikTok girls would agree HLG's diversity & inclusion policy are being met (or former or current employees posting on glassdoor, for that matter)
" new fandangled reporting IT "
will answer the state of that over on the other site...
Well here we are half way between dividends, and trading update in couple weeks. might be good time to top up in couple of weeks.
Am expecting HLG trading update tomorrow. Any thoughts out there on profit/loss etc. We will not know about div amount until end of Sept. I would be happy with 18c or over for Dec. div. Am only getting about 5.2% int. in the bank compared to HLG 8%+ at the moment. I got a spare bit of $ sitting in CM account itching to go somewhere, maybe more HLG, but might wait for tomorrow update.
The Company advises that Group sales for the 12 months ended 1 August 2023 were $409.71 million, an increase of 16.7% on the prior year ($351.21 million).
Group net profit after tax is expected to be within the range of $31.8 million to $32.3 million, an increase of approximately +25.2% on the prior year ($25.6 million).
The results of the prior corresponding period included multiple store closures across Australia and New Zealand due to lockdowns for much of the first three months of the prior year.
And of course they had to say ….The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled.
Have not kept up a close watch with the retailers lately - but I presume on an ex-cash basis HLG now trading below a 9x multiple?
So with revenue of $409.7m for the full year that implies the 2H was $186.4m, or up 3.2% on 2H FY22. When they issued the 1H FY23 update they said sales were up 13.9% for the first 8 weeks of the winter season / 2H period. Trading must have turned quite negative later in the 2h to drive that fall in cumulative revenue growth.
NPAT at the midpoint of guidance of $32.05m, implying 2H NPAT of $11.225m. That's an 18% fall in NPAT/EPS for the 2nd half & probably a touch worse than I was expecting and a bit of an early indication on what's to come in my view. Looks like continued growth in CODB and pressure on margins not withstanding the drop in freight rates. Too much punter commentary focus on topline and less on the volume/margin/CODB dynamics that cause these big swing in earnings off small changes in revenue.
A bit of a worry is the read through from the Universal Store update yesterday (who do 16-25 youth casual apparel and are one of the best comparables for Glassons AU), where they noted same store sales for the first 7 weeks of their new FY24 financial year was down 8.8% vs the same period last year.
I'm guessing the 1H FY24 result is going to look pretty poor with quite meaningful falls in EPS/DPS (bigger than the 18% fall in the 2H FY23) given the period they are cycling over, the currency, labour cost rises, theft, fall in consumer spend and promotional activity occurring in the market. and indeed negative for the full year.
Interestingly some of the other apparel brands out there (Accent for instance) posted results showing 2H sales & earnings held up a lot better than HLG/UNI....the youth customer seems disproportionately under pressure.
None of that a knock on the business - operationally excellent, strong brand, very good financial metrics etc. I've been musing about overtrading in the Australian market for a while now (and NZ is clearly under pressure) so that bubble is naturally deflating and I'm sure they are doing better than a lot of other retailers w/ lesser management teams in the same market.
anyway just my thoughts & initial reaction....always important to do your own research.
Moose …what you really saying is watch those profit numbers
Last 2 years for HLG interesting
NPAT to sales %
F22 H1 7.0% and H2 7.6% giving full year 7.3%
F23 H1 9.3% and H2 6.0% giving full year 7.8%
Last six months at 6% ruined the year …probably as a result of all things you mentioned manifesting themselves
If last six months an indication of new year than NPAT of $25m on cards eh
Full year still positive & underpinned by the first half, but rather than 'ruined' lets say the year was one of two halves...or maybe more relevantly the later half was one of two distinct quarters. I suspect in Q3 looked pretty decent from a topline % growth on the prior year perspective where ragtraders were pretty hard hit. Run rate faltering a bit but still posting decent comps. Then the last quarter of the year things started to briskly unwind.
The business probably enters the new year with a lot of external pressure attacking different parts of its P&L concurrently. Falling youth consumer spend at the same time there is a lot of pressure on overheads. Previously I had wondered from a GP margin perspective if they didn't trough in the first half of FY23 they might the second. I'm assuming freight costs are included in COGS & above GP and they have come back quite a bit over the last 12 months and particularly in the last half and ought to compensate for higher unit costs, shrinkage (theft), promotional activity. And FX did improve this year (but recently fell back into the gutter) so will be interested to see the accounts on if the fall in GP was arrested in the second half. But entering the new year FX really is at its worst level for both the NZD/USD and AUD/USD for several years except for a month and half period around October last year, and given they purchase stock in us dollars it's an unwelcome change and potential impact to margins.
Topline, margin, and then CODB as the final piece of the puzzle on how profit drops down. Australian margins shine through but there are growing pressures on labour cost for its stores & its a bit of a worry for Glassons AU and the wider retail industry. I'll be keen to see the allocation the CODB and the brand P&Ls and how that involved in the 2H because the growth amongst them hasn't been similar. For instance, in 1H the NZ brands did really well at the topline (hallensteins in particular), in absolute dollar terms, and gross profit dollars likewise quite strong even if the margin wasn't flash. But drop down to NPAT was pretty poor and that can really only be explained by CODB, and its the NZ results that provide that all important imputation to the dividends. and for NZ dividend investors that is really meaningful and if the imputation level keeps falling and gets stuck in the ~30% level for the forseeable future you may as well just be investing into an AU company receiving unfranked dividends.
So you've got a cost issue in NZ and a maybe bit of a brand health issue (whereas AU's brand is more or less in its prime). I suspect there may be some rationalisation of the store network in NZ to help address because I don't think there is a lot of fat you can take out of the business otherwise. Store staff are often casuals and you ought to be able to flex that with revenue but the business runs pretty lean and efficient as it is some I'm not sure it can release labour to the same degree as some of other retailers. The second issue is I think there are probably some costs that need to go into the business to take it forward (ie the new CFO, room for other execs). There is a new CEO coming on board from KMD which operates more of a corporate (& ESG) structure so can't discount the risk more overheads go into the business which could offset some of the gains gotten through tinkering with the NZ network. I'd imagine fast fashion is high pressure enough as is but given the level of turnover in execs (~5 group or divisional CEO's have resigned in as many years) you do wonder a bit about burnout and sustainable its structure is.
Hopefully youth apparel spending stabilises and maybe lifts later in the year or early next year. I imagine a lot of revenge travelling has sucked up a lot of available funds but then again maybe there is still pent up demand that will be released as airline prices fall from their ridiculous levels (but that is just a timing issue IMO). So things could stabilise from that perspective absent a meaningful rise in unemployment which remains a possibility. But sadly the picture on overheads is pretty challenging for the next few years...insurance and security, rampant per hour labour inflation (& if it does moderate it doesn't fall), and the rental picture less clear but in the short time remains a challenge as rents set in the last 12 months have seen landlords try to clawback some of the concessions they gave during covid. But terms written for new leases should improve later as landlords see more tenants struggle.
Glassons AU probably open a store or two every year and don't see that changing in the short term. Be interesting if the new CEO is more ambitious on rollout or goes with the flow. The time these stores take to reach maturity and the payback on the invested capital (stock plus fitout net of landlord contribution) is pretty impressive in normal times.
anyway - just my musings based on what I've seen and heard.
Where does the slowdown in youth spending narrative come from? Haven’t heard of this before, is it something other companies have said?
I can totally see a slowdown in mortgage addled adults spending less on themselves, and mortgage addled parents spending less on themselves AND their kids, that makes a lot of sense.
I think it's a pretty new development LeK. The first cracks were back in May when Universal Store updated it would come in a lot below consensus. I sat in on the Universal Store conference call yesterday and they said rents in Australia have really gone up, student loan debt is up, yet young people deciding to spend more on travel, together with the usual issues we all suffer from (food, petrol, general inflation, etc). They gave the impression its more the 18-30 year olds who are spending less than the 15-17 year olds at home, because while the bank of mom and dad may be under strain (say a 15 year old, parent was ~30yrs old on average when had kid, parents would be about 45now and have a mortgage) it was still easy for youngsters to get a job to make up the difference.
There was this report from CBA back in May that showed spending was disproportionately slowing in the younger demographic. page 6.
https://www.commbank.com.au/content/...May%202023.pdf
UNI made an acquisition part way through the year so took some effort to unpick but excluding the acquisition sales per average store fell 4% during the 2H. Impossible to work out how like for like sales performed in the 2H. They noted like for like sales were down something like 9% in the early weeks of FY24, but have quite an aggressive store opening plan. The CEO said there had been some pretty irrational discounting occurring in the market in recent months but seemed to have leveled off post EOFY/winter sales.
The Iconic also posted some poor numbers for Australasia but as an online pureplay they got knocked around by people going back into stores.
Just noticed that marketscreener just added a consensus tab to HLG. Probably in recognition of its new NZX50 status. Current analyst "consensus" is $5.50 and comes with a SELL recommendation.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...HOLDI-6495564/
Admittedly - so far it is only one single analyst they are reporting on (might be the only one looking into this company, i.e. - consensus easy to achieve), but still ... I am wondering whether this will motivate punters?
Oops - was this the SP just denting the MA200?
HLG going to report a 25% increase in profits and a decent size dividend in a few weeks
That’ll give the share price a boost BP