I was expecting some deep speculation from you on the "“Once again, we are excited to expand our evolving partnership with Sky..." statement.
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.... double post
Linkedin is trying to tell you something here.....
Attachment 12662
https://youtu.be/qLrX3hDCC9Q
around 21:00 is where sky is at currently!
Because you have left off the Nicholas cage memes , this feels less likely to happen. Or maybe it feels more likely??
https://tenor.com/view/kramer-shocke...n-gif-17534376
I will be pretty shocked if sky buys anything that big given they have repeatedly said they want a "capital light model". Would definitely reconsider my holding here if they did saddle themselves up with that much debt.
I wouldn't hold my breath for anything material to occur of Tue 29th Investor Day. It'll be nice if it did, but I don't believe so. Basically Management along with Board will outline their future strategic goals and direction as to how they would like to steer the company to create better outcome for customers and thereby shareholders.
Only material announcement I'm picking is that, there could be a possible upgrade to earnings. So if you're hoping and praying for anything other than that, it could turn out to be BIG ANTI-CLIMAX. Better to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised than expect something big and it may turn out to be fizzer.
the believers on here all believe this is undervalued (of which im a firm believer)
during this 3 hour briefing what could possible be said to make the price go south as opposed to north?
I agree taking on debt in a transaction could be one catalyst for southwards movement.
Mista, id be keen to know what presented scenario could potentially cause a SP decline.
anyone else?
100%. If they were certain of a merger/takeover they would have to let the market know.
I think it will take them three hours easily to review progress to date, and describe the plans for the future. They have a lot to cover, including:
- Subscription growth trends. Base stabilisation + streaming progress
- Property Sale
- Broadband progress and numbers
- New STB. What it is, why we need it, how it will help with subs
- Content deals - how we can ensure we are the preferred partner for all key rights (entertainment + sport)
- RugbyPass. How did SR Aotearoa go, do we still see long term value in the platform?
- Buybacks and dividends - when can shareholders expect cash to start being returned
- Further revenue diversification...entry into Mobile?
- Other opportunities for growth. How can the pristine Balance Sheet be leveraged for more aggressive growth?
- Q&A
There is a lot for Sophie and the team to cover.
All major content deals locked up for years to come, FCF of $70M+ expected for years to come.
All major CAPEX spend required for transition completed and now and future is very much a model based on partnerships designed to be capital light…
And the business is valued at 1.7x EBITDA…
Ogg, can you put a video together of that toothless Mexican guy hysterically laughing?
With subtitles applicable to Sky TV…
Do you have anything special lined up GIF-wise if your wish comes true?
Just over one day to go...unless there is a trading halt today.
I think you guys are absolutely dreaming and misleading less experienced people. A company has continuous disclosure obligations and would not book an investor day many weeks out to announce a takeover or merger.
Disc: hold.
If "less experienced" people are coming onto this forum for sound investment advice, then God help them.
Investor Day has been booked for management to spend time with shareholders and analysts to update everyone on progress and chart the way forward. Nothing to do with takeovers, mergers or anything else.
But just because Sky has booked an Investor Day, does not mean that interested parties are not taking a look at opportunities.
If anybody is buying Sky shares because they think some kind of catalyst event like a takeover/merger is imminent due to some posts by people they don't even know on this forum then I think they are damn foolish.
Charlie Munger would describe that as asinine.
Over the years I have noticed that when a company has an investor day or an investor presentation then the SP drops on that day. It may well rise eventually but there are never any fireworks on the day.
Of keen interest tomorrow will be to understand management plans to start returning capital to shareholders.
Depending on the sale of the property, I am thinking a $50M buyback.
And then declare a 2c/share divvy at the end of the year ($35M).
Between FCF + property sale, Sky could easily return $85M to shareholders this year.
Wouldn't we generally expect insiders to be buying up on a positive outlook like that? I don't think there's been much action on that front other than Handley (ex)? That said, I'm also not convinced on a takeover/ merger which (hypothetically) might explain lack of insider purchases. I guess all the speculation will be put to rest tmw anyway..
Well, management are restricted on when they can buy/sell shares.
The reintroduction (or not) of a dividend is price sensitive. I would think that they have to wait before being able to buy.
Imagine if they have known for the last month or so that they are going to reintroduce a divvy... they then go on a purchasing spree at ~17c/share. Then announce a dividend tomorrow...SP shoots up to 25c - 30c...anyone else see any issues here?
As a more general sentiment, I would prefer management to have a lot more skin in the game.
I think 4c a share is way too optimistic (unless you are talking about a one off special dividend). A sustainable 2c a share annual dividend is enough to ignite a rocket under the share price though.
Yea that last point is sort of more along the lines of what I was thinking, in the sense that you'd imagine things would be looking pretty good internally for a while before a divvy/ buy back etc is lined up and insiders' trading becomes restricted. Handley bought some and Bowman a few in March and that's about it?
4c/share assumes there has first been a $50M buyback that has reduced the shares outstanding to ~1.5B.
In that case 4c/share would be $60M a year. That would represent 85% of the low range of projected FCF ($70M). Not optimistic at all.
If there is no buyback first, then a total divvy of 3c/share is more realistic. 1c/share interim with a 2c/share final (if conditions allow).
Attachment 12679
are we there yet?
What's going to be the new conspiracy theory when nothing happens today??
Less than 30 mins to go.
Let’s hope Sophie doesn’t choke like Andy Murray on the third set. How do you lose from 5-0?
Ogg working on his game plan:
Attachment 12680
I hope you guys have already made it to the news on slide 80.
Nvm mistake
What. A. Fizzer.
I am just mesmerised by Sophie’s awesome mullet.
Oh crap:
Spark Sport has gained exclusive rights to the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa Leagues and UEFA Europa Conference League for the next three seasons
For those of you who are too lazy to read.
- Over the last 12 months Sky has received a number of unsolicited approaches around potential transactions, all of which have been highly conditional and incomplete.
- With the capital structure now stabilized, a strong position in the NZ market, and a revitalized strategy, the Board does not believe the current share price reflects the underlying value of the company
- Sky will review strategic investment partnerships that will deliver sustained ongoing growth to the rights content and distribution reach of the company, which in turn will accelerate the creation of shareholder value.
- In this context the Board has appointed Jarden to review any such approaches.
- Sky's leadership team and staff maintain their absolute focus on delivering the strategy outlined today, whilst being open to exploring opportunities to accelerate further sustainable value creation for shareholders.
Key words " a number of" "unsolicited" "being open"
The analysts questions on the Q&A segments were utter crap. Really needed some pre-vetted retail investor questions.
Newb here, pretty sure this what Ogg and Mista have being saying for the past year + lol
of course!.... The word hostile hasn't been thrown around much though. hostile or not, a takeover approach recognizes that the value of the company is lower than the market values it which should be vindication for Mista as he's been saying that for the longest time, & the fact that many parties have made approaches is vindication for the likes of OGG who has come up with more takeover theories in the last year than I thought was humanly possible.
Kiltearns overhang still there as at 10.32am Volume 5,770,250 @ 17.19
Market says BIG YAWN
But we can live in hope .... one day something exciting might happen
It would be pretty easy for one or more of the interested parties to keep a lid on the shareprice. Retail will eventually jump in, but for now there's not enough demand to lift the price to a more realistic level.
Hmmmn. Didn’t sound like Andrew promised a 4c divvy…
would another lock down possibly boost SKT's earning I wonder?
Q: Dividend?
A: *Shrug*
I'm more intrigued not one analyst questioned the approaches.
More mostly useless analyst questions, with the majority coming from Jarden (who is handling “transaction” opportunities - so isn’t going to ask any questions about it). All the other analysts were MIA for the most part - what is wrong with NZ analyst community? Where are they all on these sort of events? Ridiculous.
"high conditional and incomplete" = needs Commerce Commission approval by X date?
That was pretty much 3 hours of my life I will never get back.
There was literally no point to that presso...they have not said anything new, other than a teeny bit more info about the new STB that we didnt already know.
No wonder the analysts boycotted it. Christ that Brian Han fellow does my head in...just stupid question after stupid question.
I didn't expect Arie to ask anything about the unsolicited approaches since he is reviewing them...but neither Brian nor Han even asked about it? Amatuer.
Obviously they wouldn't have been able to answer specifically. But it would have been good to ask if these are takeover or merger discussions. Interest from local companies or overseas? Etc etc.
Amateur hour.
I tuned into the first 30 minutes but then had to leave. Did anything interesting happen? Sounded like a bunch of fluffle in the first part and the SP looks... Well.
Share price has not crashed... (yet). In fact, almost increased some!
Based on how many pointed questions Ari from Jarden asked - i believe Jarden will be saying take an offer as we aren't sure of your plan.
Listened to the first 1hour and heard nothing but sugar coating. Knew where that was going from previous shareholder talks
Most of us can agree something positive is going to happen, just how much longer
I don't know what these parties have been offering for Sky...and whether they are mergers or takeovers...
I agree wholeheartedly that the SP undervalues Sky significantly, but if The Board are wearing rose-tinted glasses someone is eventually going to get fed up and go in hostile.
Let's see what (if anything) comes of the review that Arie will do.
He seemed a lot friendlier to management, and even effusive on some of his comments about progress in key areas. Funny that, now that Arie stands to make bank on any sale (of which he will want the highest possible sale price to maximise his commission) he seems a lot more chipper with Sky.
What's this "for the next 2-3 years" EDITDA reduction about?
Attachment 12683
No questions about a potential buyback.
I reckon ogg is dumping his stock right now.
That presso disappointed me, but I bet it would have REALLY chapped his ass.
You are panicking mate. Be calm. Breath.
It is BAU until Arie can work with the interested parties to get the best possible deal.
If there are potentially multiple parties that could make a binding offer, why would shareholders want 20c?
I think Sky will probably end up going for 30c/share.
A damn shame really to see the business go for only 75% of revenue, but the market has basically forced this outcome by rating Sky so low for so long despite the obvious progress and traction they are making in key areas.
Sigh.
Really disappointing presentation. No real numbers of value on broadband's performance, must not be very successful so far. Couldn't even give a vague number for the property sale and no commitment to dividends etc in their strategic targets. Especially concerning was the "significant reduction in FCF" going forward. Not happy.
If the Board think the share price under values the company, then a buyback would be a good place to start. Then on top of that resumption of dividends.....that would get investors interested.
Maybe just have to hang in there until early September and their result and what they are going to do with their FCF.
Personally I skimmed through the preso this morning, thought "Meeehhhhhh" and that wasn't going to waste 3 hrs.
Lol at the neg reactions, as shareholders can we really lose? Price goes down, takeover more likely to happen. Price goes up, well price goes up.
I'm more worried it stays in the same spot.