We are all learning as we go along
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Poet
Thanks PT,
So in Aug 2015, AIR had an estimated consumption of 8170k barrels at an estimated price of $US60 and forex at .777. So if I had carried out my back of the proverbial calculation at that time I would have projected fuel costs at $NZ630m. Actual fuel costs were $846m. Hmmm, so what do you think is wrong here?
I don't think consumption was hugely greater than they were expecting, nor price, (maybe exchange rate was somewhat lower). Am I missing something here?
Well, of course, it is complicated and, even to me :huh:, somewhat mysterious.
Obviously a quick start of the year calculation assuming constant conditions is going to differ from actual values because Brent price , Jet Fuel price and Exchange Rates vary over the year.
You obviously left off the hedging losses from your calculation but even when you have done all that you will still find a significant difference between your result and that $846M.
So there are significant other costs covered by the fuel line on the statement. As I say I missed the second half year fuel bill by $33M last year.
I have not refined (:rolleyes:) my model yet so, whatever I said before is a rough estimate but I hope I am in the right ballpark.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I know.... this is back a fair while.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
winner69
Back in June an unnamed analyst in a NBR story about AIR “I don’t think this management team or any airline management have a strong ability to forecast the future,”
About says it all
The late Adam Thomson (1926–2000), chairman of Caledonian Airways from 1961 to 1970 and managing director and chairman of British Caledonian Airways from 1970 to 1987, said in 1984, “A recession is when you have to tighten your belt; depression is when you have no belt to tighten. When you’ve lost your trousers — you’re in the airline business.”