Here's the monthly chart https://invst.ly/14-i0c
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Here's the monthly chart https://invst.ly/14-i0c
So BaaBaa what you’re telling us is the price will either go up or down? :)
Thanks for your encouragement, depending on how you interpret the monthly price candle, it's either more likely to go down, or less likely to go up. Lol. So what's your interpretation of the candle? Not that it matters, like I said, it's what happens next that counts.
Trading is fun, it's in the now, we have access to all sorts of insights, it's just how and when we interpret them ... and what we do about it. Or not.
This post from 20 May. Another failed prediction. Is anyone making any money on the NZX currently? Even the sharetrader competition participants are mostly underwater, often significantly so.
Of course your picks may not match your portfolio. But there doesn't seem to be any expectation by Mr Market that Nicola will help out tomorrow either. And inflation is now UP in Australia again which, given tax cuts are said to be offered, may become a trend here too? Then where to for share prices?
IMO Aussie & foreign markets might be seeing more joy.
The local sentiment even for what ordinarily might look reasonable makes one think twice
The growing sea of red locally, a skeleton NZX board littered with so many dead, dying & potentially injured outfits (cushioned by all the fancy NZX funds to help divert attention away) all reeling in the hard economic conditions makes other markets look a breath of fresh air :)
How many dividend stocks have not declared or reduced ? How many more are likely to stall Div's ?
How many are reliant on dividend income ?
How much spending will go to or out of NZX stocks in a struggling post & current COL hit goldfish bowl, how much will be diverted to mortgages & loans, or servicing them at higher rates. How many will be ultra cautious and stay away, and wait & see ? How many will put off buying new assets, cars. appliances ?
Is the dip over or just starting towards something like we saw with onslaught of Covid in March/April 2020 ?
Here is a great article explaining why this from Balance is totally wrong and has very little effect at all. Strongly suggest reading it, it's not long.
https://www.lindselltrain.com/applic...April_2024.pdf
The article makes some fair points.
I have come into investing in shares pretty late in life, in the Covid wave of investors, and the biggest lesson I have started to learn is patience…several stocks have taught me some hard lessons, lol…A2 being one of them…
I would have been better off in the bank at 6.1% but the lessons I have learned are valuable too..
Good stuff Bikeguy, if you understand the points in the article you are doing well as a relative newbie. Of course changes in PE drive everything short term but very difficult if not impossible to predict and time.
Yes patience is everything in this game, focus on the business not the share price.
Anything people are talking about at the BBQ, stay away.
Perhaps you would have been better off in the bank even if rates were Negative 10%?
52-Week range 0.96-1.84
I thought of buying it around 1.02. There is something that we don't know. It has dropped all the way from 1.84 to below $0.99. What would be the main reason. I have had terrible experience in investing in the financial sector. I can still remember all financial stocks dropped like hot potatoes before they went to receiverships. However, HGH is not like other banks and finance companies. Currently, it has lost its momentum. Investors are waiting for something to cheer.
new lows coming :scared:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-in...rket-this-week
This is sending shivers down the spine of loads of people. NZ economy is on a further downward spiral. I am happy with my HGH holding and may add more.
Looked into HGH the other day. $1.6 billion in car loans scared me off. They are increasing market share of these loans aggressively into a declining market.
No indication of if they are loaning these to sub prime (second hand clunkers) market or to prime (new flash ones) borrowers.... Could easy see the deliquency rate picking up over the next couple of years in the downturn...
I think this thing goes lower from here.
I think you need to look a bit more carefully. From AR2023 p33:
"Heartland launched an "iOwn"guaranteed future value product across the Peugeot, Citroen and Opel range of vehicles"
From p17 AR2022
"Key partners ...Kia (through Kia Finance and offering Kia Konfidence) (and) Jaguar Land Rover."
Also from p17 AR2022
"Key partners , including branded white label partnerships contributed $293m of total new motor business in FY2012"
From AR2022 p97 and p98 motor vehicle loan assets increased from $1,288m to $1,382m an increase of $94m. If the key partners loans increased by nearly $200m more than that (and they did, so obviously about $200m of older loans rolled off over the same period), this would indicate that a very large amount of the new Heartland motor business, could be as high as 100%, was funding new cars.
Consequently I would suggest that your comment that there is no indication where these motor loans are coming from, and a lot of the motor loans are to sub prime lenders is scurrilous, ill researched and just plain wrong. Of course there is nothing to stop new car buyers defaulting on their loans in a really bad downturn. But so far, a lot more people are keeping their jobs than might be expected in a significant recession. And if a new car buyer does default, the chances are a good quality asset can be repossessed to pay that loan balance off.
SNOOPY
Ah wasnt intending to be scurrilous (although obviously was ill researched).
I just didnt find the bit which indicated the quality of the loans... Ive done a bit of research on car loan defaults (as part of this quick piece on HGH), and new cars had a much lower default ratio during the GFC. Subprime motor vehicle lending got hammered.
Thanks Snoopy, it is this sort of information that makes the website worthwhile.
This does make me happier on the company, I will take another look. I like the rest of the business and see it as low risk...
Given market vibes and general lack of good research, I wonder if this goes lower anyway due to my comments above...
ACC has been buying up big