I think I might have to hold this piece of sh*t stock.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
That 70c price target is pretty bullish.
He does make a good point about the potential for significant free cash flow over the next few years as the "satellite base will have a long tail".
He forecast up to $50m of back backs this year between June - December after the property sale. Then dividends in 2022.
He makes a good point about NZ being a small market so the major players are better off using a media aggregator like Sky than going direct. Obviously the big players are doing streaming but they can never generate enough cash to pay for sporting rights like rugby. There's a good chance that NZRU signs after 2025. Sky should maintain it's market position and churn should stabilise.
The new Sky box also looks good. Minimal deprecation of old boxes as a lot of customers will stick with the old box.
Overall, he says that NZ market is dividend focused and most retail investors lost faith in Sky, hence that's why the stock is so low. It's just question of weather this company can turn around and use it's clean balance sheet to return capital to shareholders and get back the reputation it once had. Either that or use the cash for growth acquisitions.
However, I'm still in the takeover camp, but I'm thinking the offer has to be north of 30c to justify.
Let's just see what the investor day brings in a little over a week from now.
I'm thinking about buying more if there's continue weakness over the next few days.
This stock must be worth at least $1 to Warner/Discovery, it's just God dam silly they're not interested in buying at these levels!
Fu*k it...
https://i.imgur.com/Ug3JM98.gif