US appears to have no bounds in their ability to control the gold price, until they can't I suspect.
Printable View
Wouldn't buying gold coins over the counter be better than this. Security wise it would be safer in a vault as you can't tell anyone where you buried it in the backyard and you might not remember after a couple of years. But exchanging a certificate for gold has proven to be fraught in the past.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...BOX6ZSXIDT3DM/
Memories of Goldcorp must be fading by now.
It's a retail version of an ETF by looks.
I imagine huge spreads as well.
There are also typically large spreads in the physical market and quite often verification costs on quality when you come to sell.
If you are a doomsdayer then yes gold buried in the backyard makes sense, just make sure you remember where you bury it and nobody sees you and don't die without letting someone else you trust know! 😅
Otherwise just buy an ETF, you can trade in as little as 1ounce lots.
I would have thought the idea of investing in gold immediately makes you a doomsayer. It is an insurance against monetary collapse and inflation. The idea is that other currencies are losing value through excessive printing and devaluation, or market turbulence and geo-political uncertainty.
A closed-end fund with set amount of gold on hand would make sense but how would an etf match investments to the amount of physical gold held. The temptation to sell more certificates than you have gold in the vault would be hard to resist. Historically it always happens, from early banks to everyone leaving the gold standard in the 1930s. I assume the great depression meant there were a lot of chickens coming home to roost and when doom was upon them the certificates for the gold (currencies) far outweighed the gold in the vault.
Like any currency, if people lose faith in gold it would be worth a lot less than it is now, although it might have a future as an industrial metal at a much lower price.
For me it is a speculation as much as it is an insurance policy against doom befalling us all, so does not make up a large portion of my portfolio as I am conservative as well as doomsayery.
True but what do you recommend.
Agricultural, industrial or considering your age technological. What about utilities? Which companies are currently fairly priced in your opinion. Which are the new growth industries and which are the sunset ones?
I am open to specific recommendations although I will not guarantee that I will act on them as all investment involves risk.
p.s thinking about it further a highly levered property purchase is also a good insurance against inflation, provided you didn't pay too much or are too leveraged.
Well your first thought was wrong.
Some are sure, but many people just invest in something because they think it will appreciate in value or hedge inflation etc.
ETFs are regulated like any investment.
To be approved by the Securities & Exchange Commission the product is thoroughly vetted prior to it being launched and it would have to be audited.
Remember the E stands for Exchange so they are monitored & regulated by the SEC.
I won't make any recommendations, but my two largest holdings are Oceania Healthcare and Stellantis.
I'd say any industry that you understand and can gauge the companies ability to generate cash for it's shareholders in the future are the ones you should be looking at. Given a low enough share price in relation to intrinsic value, even an investment in a company operating within a stagnant or dying industry can generate good returns. One annuity provider I'm invested in I expect to have zero or very low operating earnings growth, but should do well just because the price I'm paying is so low for the operating earnings. Probably stay away from the tech industry especially the ones making extraordinary claims about AI, as they all seem to be either fully priced or overpriced.
I'd call a highly levered property purchase a bad investment, it's an expensive unproductive asset. If you're going to use leverage, use small amounts on productive assets, unless you can manage to get it very cheap and noncallable.
Gold through $2000 again
The outlook seems to be based on lower FED interest rates. However the cost of carry right now is still 5%+.
It will be interesting if it can hold & go onto new highs.
Daytr, do you actually own gold or just sometimes trade it? If you do own gold it'd be interesting to know why you own it, whether that be physical or an etf, instead of say an index fund, stocks, bonds, funds for trading, or some other form of investment/speculative operation.
I trade gold quite regularly. Currently I have a small short position that I only entered yesterday after it broke through 2000.
I trade ETFS.
I specialized mostly in gold trading when in banking and saw all sorts of reasons driving the gold price, supply & demand etc.
A significant amount of activity is driven by gold miners, cultural demand, jewelry, electronics, investment I.e put in a vault or ETF or futures investing and trading.
The evolution of ETFs was a big driver of gold appreciation in the last 15 years or so, but so to the cost of production driven by costs but also due to the average grade being mined has reduced considerably.
Gold has a lease rate I.e an interest rate that fluctuates with supply & demand.
It's only really wholesale quantities that can take advantage of it & typically its quite low but I have seen gold lease rates spike to double digits and I think from memory once I remember it spiking to around 40 - 50% very briefly.
The interest rate doesn't normally drive investment but does help offset the holding cost, I.e the USD interest cost.
Benjamin Grahams definition of investing is best, "An investment operation is one which, on thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."
IMO gold doesn't promise safety of principle nor a satisfactory return being an unproductive asset.
Mostly for shorting I.e ETFs or futures, but also producer hedging, which back when I was trading gold was a big part of the market and the global hedge book was over 100 million ounces or 3,300 tons. It's pretty insignificant now as mark to market or IFRIS accounting was introduced and meant the changes in value of the hedgebook had to be reported. Also as gold for 20 years was pretty much going down in price until it got below the cost of production at around $220/ounce, so it made sense for a producer to hedge their future production especially when they could get 2 - 5% contango compounded.
Since then, in the last 20 years, gold has gone up about 8 fold and shareholders of gold producers want exposure to the gold price so hedging has become unpopular unless it's there to protect project debt, probably mandated by their lending bank.
Keep it up chump.
The chip on your shoulder is only offset by the eyepatch.
Quite ridiculous.
You keep telling us of these stocks you are reinvesting in as one day they will be worth much more. Markel for example. So yes investing in gold is the same as investing in shares or an index, looking for price appreciation.
I.e pretty much all investing barring pure yield plays are speculation.
Trading is definitely entirely speculation.
But more the point is, who gives a flying ....
As usual totally incorrect.
The companies I am interested in will only be worth more as they will produce more goods and services more efficiently, with less capital.
As the amount of cash they throw off rises, their capitalised value will increase, probably more than the proportional amount of cash i.e. multiples will expand from trough.
Look to ValueNZ's explanation of investing.
What were your returns on the capital provided to you by the bank over the entire time you were speculating in Gold for them?
What have your returns been over the last 8 years across your net worth, not just the 15% you've done on your highest performing strategy.
He said speculating about the future of the companies he has invested in.
This getting boring as usual.
Were you an accountant in a previous life by chance?
I have paint drying that will be more interesting than this.
See ya bud. My time is far more valuable than these ridiculous back & forth we get into.
But by all means keep posting to yourself.
When did I say that I was speculating? You do need to make some sort of prediction about the microeconomic environment under which a company will operating in, but given a sufficient margin of safety between the share price and intrinsic value you are essentially guaranteed safety of principle and a satisfactory return.
You may find this sort of stuff boring, but at the end of the day it's the only real proven way of generating returns exceeding that of the SP500 over the long term. What SailorRob wrote makes total sense, and is definitely not boring IMO as money excites me.
If you're looking for a thrill try 0DTE option trading, if you're looking to make bucketloads of cash in the long run then listen to what SailorRob has to say.
When lending money people usually ask for a return on capital (interest rate) so nothing special there. I guess it is not so easy lending gold bars.
Gold staying above $2,000, you reckon this is in anticipation of a Fed interest rate cut. I think it was Airedale who pointed out to me that gold is also affected by the strength of the US dollar.
Early days yet but I would be nervous shorting gold at $2,000. So you sell the gold but what do you invest in at 5% while you wait for the price of gold to fall.
Hi Aaron, the US$ index has fallen from 107 in September to 102.8 today. That is the reason for gold to break up above the $2000 us resistance.
I'm certainly not nervous, but so far I have been proven wrong on the trade. I always trade with a stop & short positions are always relatively small. Anything priced in USD will have an inverse relationship with the dollar, just like the NZD.
Hamas just bombed Israel in the midst of the ceasefire by looks, so that may underpin gold further.
We launched off $1,815 largely based off the conflict in Gaza and the USD weakness of late has spurred it on.
However, the cost of carry is still over 5%, which is pretty high to hold a position.
Just trying to understand better. The cost of carry of 5% is what you are charged while you hold/borrow the gold? I assume you then sell the gold and invest the proceeds somewhere while you wait for the price of gold to fall and buy it back at a lower price before you return it to the owner. What are you invested in while you wait? and I guess your stops will have you buying back the gold if it goes over a certain price.
You don't need to tell me your stop level as this might encourage SailorRob to start buying gold, I just wondered where you put the cash while you wait.
It's the cost of buying forward I.e futures. It's the USD interest rate less the gold lease rate otherwise known as contango. If the lease rate is higher than US interest rates which is rare in gold its termed backwardation. I.e you can buy at a forward price cheaper then the current spot price. It's the method used for exchange rates, one interest rate minus the other.
What I am doing is not a physical transaction its an ETF sold forward so I don't receive the proceeds of the sale, however I do get positive funding i.e. the circa 5% as a credit for each day I hold. Its actually lower than that on the sell side spreads involved. To close out the position I just buy it back and the net of the proceeds of the buy & sell are paid if I make money, otherwise I pay if I get stopped out etc.
Gold trading isn't for everyone as it can be quite volatile and can trade counter intuitively at times.
Its a fickle mistress & silver is even more volatile.
A bit like BBOZ and BEAR for shorting the Aussie market I guess. Not shorting as such but the manager doing the shorting should be making money if things are crapping out and your shares or units should be increasing in value.
Imagine what Munger would have said to Day Trader.
Bollocks!
Speculation implies Hope for a Blow Off Price Spike Top in any Asset Class. Usually commodities. And Yes! This could happen to Au (like Uranium beginning to Do) with a rapid Price hike over 3 years to US$3000 +
But
Invest in Gold in:
The Miners (many have healthy Dividend Yields) on the ASX and US Markets. Plenty of Blue Chip stocks if you prefer safer options.
The Royalty Companies: low risk but income stream guaranteed. Many have growing Yields as their Royalties increase. Most are quarterly too. Tho Oil and Gas ones monthly. Can't beat cold hard cash to reinvest each month! Yup... Reinvest...
Cheers
DISC: Hold Physical Au, Hold and Buying: Royal Gold, Barrick, Van Eck ETF, Franco Nevada, Gold Royalty , Sandstorm, Perseus, Evolution, Northern Star, Newmont , and various Junior Small Caps.
And , before I forget, Buy Physical to Own. Simply Own. No Investment or Speculation Motivation. Just Own.
https://goldprice.org/
Over 20 years of learning about Finance , Gold has increased in NZ$ over 434% . That's not a bad place to store NZ $. Bring on the next 20 years....
Two different things my friend. Nobody was talking about companies....
However, everything you mentioned still hinges on the price of Gold which cannot be predicted and has a massive speculative element.
Investing is something that upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.
Your thoughts on what speculation implies are completely off, nobody has ever defined it like that before you...
Looks like a great portfolio you have there!
Stocks outperform Gold by 11,700% per year. Not a typo, do the math before asking stupid questions. Admittedly that is only a 200 year data set. Te reasons are obvious.
Oh so we just compound out the last 20 years to discover what the next 20 will bring? Nice work there Sport
I would suggest investing in miners as a proxy to gold provides far more leverage to the price than just investing in gold. That applies to both the up & downs of course.
I have far more exposure to gold through gold miners than I do actually directly to gold. In fact sometimes I trade gold to hedge my exposure to gold companies & I have done that quite a bit lately.
Any small cap junior gold stocks you think look interesting?
I think investing in mining is going be very well rewarded for the rest of this decade ... but I do think there is a good case for the likes of the Nasdaq100 to have a major correction within the next year ...
why I'm buying up Sibanye-stillwater shares 7%+ yield (NDX 1.6%)I see safety in a MEGA miner with muti projects size and scale downstream operations Vs spec end smaller producers with much more risks
but also holding a large SNAS position = short NDX and will continue to hold into the new year
For gold and silver iit is just a matter of when, not if.
Thanks to more recent posters with your positive approach towards Gold Investing and Speculating. I appreciate that as we are here to learn and grow our skills on our collective Financial journeys....
I agree with all your comments and sentiments.
DayTr Question on Small Caps worth a Reply. Please DYOR. I Hold small spec holdings in ASX : Santana (busy exploring in Otago), Antilles (ASX: in Cuba...), Far East Gold, Siren (Reefton), Eagle Mountain. All these are: Spec only. I expect no capital gain until Financial Markets correct caused by a Debt Crisis caused by US Interest Bill on US Sovereign Debt . Trigger could be US commercial real estate debt burden. Most are at rock bottom prices and may need more Capital raises to survive...
Buying Santana and Siren is easier and warmer than taking my Gold pan to those awesome parts of the South Island...
Cheers
Wish him all the best from me! It seems so ironic that here in NZ we find gold on both islands. Yet we have Zero on our Sovereign Balance sheet. We sold it all in the early '90's. It's up to small miners to jump through bureaucratic hoops to generate a source of wealth. Wealth that could be used to fund the common good through tax and employment income.
Yes Santana short drive from home .. gutted I didn't load up in the 50's when I first started looking into the project ...Is a goer IMHO could well be the next Macraes which could mean we see OG knocking on the door for trade sale / JVP
been putting some good hours into finding a good place to park some capital ..and think GOLD will continue to do well and hold up if we see a general market correction in the new year ...
looking over many ASX ...but just couldn't pull the finger and buy without looking on the NYSE for peer size companies I like sub 500mill Gold producer ..
came across - Galiano Gold- USD $143mill cap ..$56mill cash nil debt (EV=$A130mill !!!)
45% JVP with 45% Goldfields(10% Ghana govt) Ghana Gold mine 2Moz Gold reserve ..P/E-4 -LOM-8-9yrs on present DFS
120koz Gold Production profile 2023 165Koz 2024 >> growth goal 2025 250Koz-275koz ... 5Mtpa Plant .strip ratio 7.2. • Processing recovery is 94.0% ...(LOM av 89)
best country in Africa to mine.. Major exploration upside--- full production 200koz+ LOM AISC $1000oz... if GOLD moves towards $3koz the likes of GAU will see 45% of $400Mill EBITA
...and that is... a ton of cash! Thanks for mentioning Africa. Forgot that I hold Perseus and keep topping up. Can't beat a bottom left to top right price graph. Will check out Galiano. Thanks for the financial breakdown. Am more familiar with Namibia and the ASX U companies. But that's another story for separate thread!
Back to the all time highs or thereabouts.
Fourth time now at this level.
Can gold go on & breakthrough & hold?
Check out https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
before the notes below. Use the time frames of 25 years...
Once it breaks thru that massive resistance line of 2070 a Technical Trader would suggest a significant run up. (the resistance line tapped 4 times in the last 3 years. This 4 th tap should crack / smash / break the Glass Ceiling. Sky the Limit then.
Also a Technical Trader would look at the massive Cup and Handle formation.
Cup: 2011 - 2020 (10 Years)
Handle 2020 - Right now. (but breaking out...)
Once the Handle cracks / smashes / breaks expect a Run Up.
DISC I'm not a Technical Trader.
More of an Financial / Economic Historian etc.
But if I could bet one gold coin I'd bet the the POG is going to go Up through 2024 rather than down. How high becomes crystal ball gazing... but fun to reflect back on!
So on that Fun Theme I'm going to go for.... hmmm.... US$3000 by end of 2025.
Totally agree in theory but it has to break that level & hold it first.
Comex net longs are also pretty much back to the highs as well so it will be interesting how much more ammunition is left to power gold higher?
It's been an impressive run since the Hamas attack up from around $1815 so $250 in short time.
Cup&Handle formation https://invst.ly/12hzhk has has two failed breakouts which arguably is a wierd looking handle now, but if you're right and it breaks out and up right now, the formation has a 54% measured move according to the guru TA https://thepatternsite.com/cup.html
:t_up:
Looking good.
SBSW..Is this interest drive by Century Mine developments or just general company direction?
Yes, one of the reasons I wanted to compare some of NYSE / TSX etc sub 500mill Gold plays to the ASX micro-cap producers which I've found quite expensive to the likes of GAU .. for one not many have a 45% share in a 5Mtpa CIL plant + 5Moz near surface resource .. Plant alone replacement cost alone is some $400mill+ ...
then x-factor wise you have GAU the operator of the mine has 45% JVP Goldfields wanting to make a decision on there position ..
By Jacob Lorinc
September 20, 2023 at 9:27 AM GMT+12
Gold Fields Ltd. will decide whether to keep or dispose of its stake in its smallest gold asset within the next four months, according to interim Chief Executive Officer Martin Preece.
The Johannesburg-listed firm is “exploring all the options” for the Asanko gold mine in Ghana, including a total divestiture or a move to boost its ownership, Preece told Bloomberg.
Makes sense to me that an operator keeps the project aka GUA buys out GF 45% .. through a scrip deal + cash payments over the next few years ... this IMHO will be great for GAU to hold 90% and forward plan to become a major Gold producer that will if successive command 1-2Bill cap in time if they can extend LOM 20yrs+ etc
Oversold bounce IMHO ... SBSW is still a major Gold producer of 700-800koz+(when you include PGM4E gold etc) pa gold close to $2100oz etc ...
..post I come across that I agree with>>>
I'm surprised some sovereign funds are not stockpiling platinum at these prices, as a safe haven asset. $1 billion buys you roughly 1 million ounces. What an opportunity to sell that soon-to-be worthless US Dollar and buy Platinum, Platinum And Rhodium at close to 5-year lows. 1 Billion is nothing for a Chinese or Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund. They could buy 1 Billion a day in the futures and ask for delivery. I wonder what that would do to the naked PGM shorts in London and New York, per the Fed trying to maintain interest in its currency.
Yes I have thought the same re Platinum for some time. Back when Platinum peaked about 15 years ago well over $2000/toz there was a lot of substitution to Palladium as back them it was considerably cheaper. There was also a big push for Platinum in regards jewelry which did have some impact on demand.
I think that speculative push higher put a lot of industrial consumers off and the substitution has hurt Platinum demand ever since.
But I agree re Sovereign Wealth funds, it would be a good reserve type investment.
Rhodium is far too illiquid to hold as an investment. The spreads are incredible at times.
Wow look at gold go. Just smashed through all time highs.
Yip. Bunch of reasons.
1. Iranian backed Yemen rebels having a crack at the US Navy and other ships. Will this be the spark that sets the Middle East into a wider conflict? Hence Gold an Insurance hedge
2. Macro reality setting in with as world realises US sovereign debt is unsustainable; Hence Gold an Insurance hedge
3. TA (noted in previous posts) once that 2070 pierced expect a price spike. 2500 here we come??
4. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold on the 25 year shows that we're overdue for a decent bull run.
Let's enjoy the ride!
Cheers
I will either way. Enjoy that is.
Chart looks massively overbought.
Reminds me of 2012 when gold spiked and then came crashing down.
Now over $60 off its highs this morning in early morning illiquid trade.
But yep there is plenty of tension / conflict around the world that could spark the price up again. I do wonder if MidEast tensions are already priced in & it might take a major escalation to support gold further.
"There are about three hundred economists in the world who are against gold, and they think that gold is a barbarous relic - and they might be right. Unfortunately, there are three billion inhabitants of the world who believe in gold." - Janos Fekete
Well those economists were right for about 20 years & funny enough it was really the producers of gold that made the rally in the early 2000s by over a period of time closing out about 3,000 tons of gold hedging.
Many of those economists failed to recognize yhe change in the market especially when gold hit the cost of production price.
Mind you it's only about 10% above it's highs of 2012.
Overall I think gold is heading to $3000 but I think we might see a pretty big pull back first.
I got some gold when world was falling apart 12 or so years ago ….cost me about nz$2,000 Oz
Suppose a 65% gain over that time reasonable
Hope it’s still where I buried it
Gold just broke back thru previous highs as expected. Gave up its 4% gain in the same day.
Let's see what the US does.
Pleased I offloaded some of my gold stocks.
Am short at $2132.
Let's see what overnight trading does.
Might drop my bid price for more GAU.TSX shares tonight .... still healthy pullback ...think most of its coming from FED comments of maybe another rise in rates could still be on the table ... but IMHO OIL heading downwards inflation surely will not see this and more so rates on HOLD till the NASDAQ tech sector tips over early to mid 24
Yes even with the GOLD price pull-back non of these TSX GAU S/Hs wanted to sell me any more than a token amount of shares ....maybe tonight ... Where Gold goes over the next couple weeks will be interesting I'm 50/50 it going even higher and stay above 2100oz or retreating to the mid 1900's
It's looking like fail #3 on the cup and handle breakout https://invst.ly/12j4aa
So given the extreme Volatility over the last few weeks ( and recent days) I thought I'd do some digging... (scuse unintended pun...)
This article is really well written and covers the macro. https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ro...in-volatility/
Buckle in for the Ride.
Thanks Misty.
Yeah it's pretty obvious to me a hedge fund had a crack at gold in hours of poor liquidity & like the article says, probably also drove it down by selling out.
I remember the same thing happened in the oil market a few years ago & its happened in the NZD as well.
Imo there should be limitations on volume when there is virtually no liquidity,
Gold has rebounded nicely after its spike & sell off. Not far off the highs & I expect as the US cuts rates throughout 2024 gold should do well.
Could be a great year for gold stocks.
And thanks JB for bringing platinum back on my radar. That's been a great trade. Out now. Will reassess in the NY
Should have taken the trade myself .. some dumb reason I find it harder to control my emotion playing with CFDs and always just over trade and take very short term gains than just putting the trade on that I know is a good one and just leaving it to play out with a stop-loss in place ... GOLD low 1900 levels Platinum 880's Palladium 900's .. all no brainer trades IMHO at the time
at present one trade I'd look to take on a leave to play out would be if Wti Crude oil would dip to say 67-68bbl level to go long ..pretty safe to see bounce from these levels...
I do think the PGMs could grow a leg as well
I'll second that.
The next question is:
Is the increasing POG in USD the start of a multi year uptrend? eg 1970s or 2009 - 2011...
As I type POG gone thru USD$2300...
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
Cheers
In one week US$2300K cleared. As I type POG breaking US$2400K. NZ$4000 +
Which must have caused TVNZ 6 pm News team to get excited tonight: https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/04/12/g...me-to-cash-in/
$NZ4082 per ounce over night.
Am I correct in thinking...re record POG that taking into consideration of inflation that the price would have to be over $US4000...per ounce.
Also the stuff is going up for a reason....perhaps heralding dark times ahead.
Well heralded in Jim Rickards 2012 book "Currency Wars" : https://www.amazon.com/Currency-Wars.../dp/1591845564
Vital reading.
As are all of his books following this.
Shocking now knowing that the "Currency War" foretold a decade before (banning Putin from SWIFT / Energy sanctions etc if Putin invaded Ukraine) now dividing the World into two Power Blocks with genuine Risks of a Hot War.
China now armed with Gold; as is their allies.
Meanwhile a Hot War retaliation attack : Iran (Russia) v Israel (US) and Vice versa will send Oil skyrocketing. Think US$150 +
(Gold would likewise.)
This then sets a domino toppling: Inflation II .... higher for longer??
Your Quote" Dark Times ahead" is so relevant.
Yet where is this analysis in our mainstream media??
[QUOTE=mistymountain;1048085]Well heralded in Jim Rickards 2012 book "Currency Wars" : https://www.amazon.com/Currency-Wars.../dp/1591845564
Just woken up to hear that for the first time in most of our lives Iran (Russia) is now attacking Israel (US)
The Oil and Gold Markets next weekend may also respond accordingly
We are Living through History right Now. As the great Thinker Lenin said:
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
----
Pour a coffee: as I type this George put this out 50 mins ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-vEeESNaPg
Should be compulsory viewing for all us "kiwis". Especially those with heads in the sand.
The Ninja does a great job explaining the War situation and implications for our hard earned $$$$
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGVqk_89IKA
Strap on NZ for the Rollercoaster ride.
What will Israel do to retaliate...?
Over the last 6 months I have rung the Israel Embassy twice in Wellington expressing my concerns their brutal revenge in Gaza leading NZ and the World towards WW3.
Both times their phone wont answer.
Where has our Government been to express to the Israel embassy for their lack of leadership to reign in Netanyahu vengeance and vendetta...and Call for PEACE and Dialogue.
Oh!!! Maybe this is the REASON: https://israelinstitute.nz/chris-bishop/
War Pigs. Play loud: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQUXuQ6Zd9w
then repeat:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQUXuQ6Zd9w