Should that not be.
Chuff Chuff Chuffed. ?
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Ratkin, that's a very cynical comment.
big roration out of tech and stay at home stocks today in the US
I figured a lot of stocks already have recovery factored in and don't see much genuine upside other than a sugar rush like this morning's vaccine speculation.
That's why I dipped into THL this morning. Genuine sustained upside to come.
I've sold a chunk into this rally....
Some longs have been sold out and a short ....
Dont get me wrong , bull is not over but I suspect there will be a dip soonish, after all we just hit ATH on SP500
I have to rotate as well. '+)
Am never happy when the market goes up, always wishing had bought more.
hate to say this folks but SPX500 did a shooting star.
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I shoot you not.
Central bankers have become irrelevant in these low inflation days
Orr will make out he’s still very important and today will come up with something that he wrongfully will think will stimulate the economy
Better if he shut up and went on extended leave ....wasted space
rotation out of tech into covid recovery stocks continuing today in the US , expecting similar price action in NZ/USD. be watching NZD today following ORR's statement hoping for a spike too resistance around 69c then i can lock some USD in for my upcoming black friday sales day in the US
Just what I was saying .....Orr and his mates around the world exist these days pretending they are actually doing things to stimulate the economy but really their masters are finance guys who know that every meaningless word will ‘shift’ the markets for an hour or two .....they need this to happen a lot for themselves to remain relevance ...but not productive and add stuff all to the economy.
as house prices go up and stock prices go up you feel wealthy dont you winner , might even want to splash some of your new wealth around by buying stuff. as for the rest im in the camp that likes helicopter money deposited directly into lower income peoples bank accounts but that is not orrs fault that is a govt decision.
its weird that Black Monday has become a default general chat thread.... esp given how sharemarket investors are meant to be optimistic people. Not that I am.
I'm picking a slightly drawn out consolidation on the US market at this stage , exactly like for OCA after its shooting star candle - where we are still seeing relative weakness - because its the same pattern on the SPX500 yesterday. Lets see how this one plays out. we haven't seen the ideal down day today to follow that up but it has stayed low and hasnt closed yet.
Reserve Bank makes surprising announcement on move to reinstate lending restrictions in face of searing housing market; has also announced further delay in introducing new bank capital requirements till 2022
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...trictions-face
wonder if the meeting with grant had anything to do with these surprise announcements
Nothing surprising about signalling a move back to LTV ratios. Some of us have been calling for and expecting them for some time.
note that also
the RBNZ also says its moratorium on banks paying dividends and redeeming bonds, put in place in April, will continue until at least March 31 next year "to support the stability of the financial system."
Orr talks about moving back to LVRs and a bit later signals that banks can get cheap money apparently for housing (not just business as some indicated)
He’s lost the plot .....needs a long holiday
he also said he is not too worried about the house prices as its more of a structural supply issue in nz .. has been for donkey yrs
Not sure this world rally will hold, everyone been having an end of Trump and Covid party. Once they wake up with their hangover there will still be Covid, and the world will still be in a hole, Trump or no Trump
US markets up again bumping the top of the range though , so a break thru the top could lead to some more good gains. mentioned yesterday nzd/usd might hit resistance at 69c after the rbnz news and it has indeed still up on the day and looking strong overall
I agree we are not out of the woods, Pfizer vaccine progress notwithstanding.
Reserve Bank of NZ is making sure interest rates remain low and is busy inflating the housing price bubble. Basically Orr is telling investors to fill their boots with mortgage debt. After all Labour says no general CGT under their watch - so chase those leveraged property capital gains; the Kiwi way. So what goes up, goes up for ever...(forget history?)
Are the Reserve Bank Board assessed for any conflict of interest?
Watch the tens of billions of dollars (in NZ) of maturing bank deposits flood into property & stocks, especially high yielding stocks in the next 12 months.
Already happening and will accelerate as savers get almost zero interest income shock.
But they have always voiced concerns about these areas in the guise of stability which is part of their mandate. Stability can be a social mandate as well as a financial one although prolly not expressed that way in the legislation.
House prices should be included in inflation , its crazy how CPI doesnt do this. They use rent which distorts the picture when there is so much QE.
True. However from its website it expressly says: "The Bank also aims to keep employment near its maximum sustainable level and promotes a sound and efficient financial system." The Bank is tasked with maintaining price stability.
It is arguable that if it does not ensure that lending is immediately channelled into business sustaining employment as opposed to mortgage lending further inflating the price of land, then it is failing.
The RBNZ has recognised that the housing market has supply constraints. Consequently encouraging banks to lend at low interest rates without immediately restricting the amount they can lend via residential lending, especially to investors, is encouraging further land price inflation (and not price stability) and not encouraging investment to help support employment during the covid recession, which is an expressed aim for the RBNZ.
Also it is arguable that allowing runaway property inflation to continue during the covid recession, the soundness and efficiency will be increasingly tested when interest rates can no longer drop further.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do
This was a link macduffy gave me, it breaks down the CPI components. House prices only a small part of CPI.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/9157...umer-inflation
I think home ownership costs are given a weighting, however I am not sure what weighting is given to the cost of land.
http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/brows...aspx#gsc.tab=0
Level 1.5 / 2 coming for Auckland?
Depending on whether they can successfully contract trace the individual in question, along with the rest of the people living in the apartment complex I presume, we may avoid an increase in levels, however I'm certain it'll happen again before too long.
The authorities will need to very quickly put some additional procedures in place surrounding building evacuations to contain spread. If that is the cause, and it's looking likely, it's an appalling lapse.
Every cycle of alert level we go through will have an increasingly large effect on the economy.
Simple - do what is the right thing for the greater good which is to lockdown said apartments as a starting point until such time as all occupants are have tested negative and are cleared.
If the government can lock down a whole country with huge costs, they can jolly well lock down selected places.
just got a email saying the pb tech black friday sale ( instore only ) is postponed a further update will be provided after 1 pm govt announcement today
note how the US was very subdued for a couple of days following the identified shooting star and is now beginning to confirm.
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I see Biden's advisors want 6wk lockdown across many states and cities ... Markets could well be in for some major corrections before long the BUBBLE will burst
thats probably because on current trajectory US hospitals in some states will be over welmed by patients. also no stimulus coming until next year and who knows what trump will do going into january makes for risky times still. probably why bitcoin etc going bangers , new safe haven trade
Never worry about Biden and his advisors. Before Bidens inauguration on January 20th the raging toddler and his team of crooks will kill off at least another 200,000 Americans. They killed only yesterday nearly 1500 Americans (one days toll) and the toll is steeply rising. Dead bodies everywhere thanks to Trump - and they won't be able to hide them all.
Just wonder what all these dead bodies will do to the markets? Though - it is a great time for idiots, undertakers and conman ...
virus deaths have gone from 5000 per day to over 10000 per day now in the space of a few mths could well be 20000 day in another few mths such is the growth rate
RBNZ’s Orr Says New Covid Case Is Reminder of Risks Ahead
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
more alround acceptance of cryto even the fund managers are investing in it now in a bigger way. central banks all developing a digital future. naysayers missed a big opportunity on this bitcoin up 60% since the breakout above 10k probably many other crypto up much more
Or your exchange blows up as they seem to on the regular.
I've beed trading leveraged crypto derivative's for some years and the band just keeps on playing....'18 wasn't the best year but was still in the black, however, after '17 that was fine. I'm not a hodlr. I don't have an opinion on the validity of crypto. I'm in it to make money and the barrier to entry for my algo's is very low. Once my systems' stop performing them i'm out.
Anyway i'm on this forum to learn about NZX equities....so thanks all !
Stock rotation continues in USa... investors are buying beaten stocks. Moderna result is coming soon
I would have thought this news snippet From Seeking Alpha (13th Nov 4.40am ET) would have made front page news in NZ..but apparently NZ hair shampoo, Fran's opinion on Chris Luxon, and Mary's view on retiring at 40 years are the business headlines in the NZH for today.
Hmmm...The News seems genuine but I cant sight it in other Country's newspapers either..maybe yet to be announced?
Largest Free Trade Deal Ever To Be Signed This Weekend
Highlights:
1...China to sign a mega trade deal this weekend with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand together with 10 ASEAN member countries.
2...This Economic Partnership, covers 30% of global GDP and trade.
3...Objective of this deal is to reduce tariffs, strengthen supply chains and organise new e-commerce rules.
4...Covers many economies and goods.
5...Negotiations have been on going for years.
Interesting find. Though there used to be an article in bloomberg 2 days ago ... that's probably where seeking alpha got it from:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...hored-by-china
and the BBC chimed in as well:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54899254
Otherwise - silence. Very unusual.
Finally got some NZ Media attention after Sunday's signing of the Agreement.
No real public media fanfare nor any tangible specifics for something that theoretically is going to add 1% to our GDP growth...Oh well ...At least it may help to add $2 billion to counter the loss of $10 Billion (GDP)..(so far) during the 2019-2020 period.
And here’s a nice summary of why the US markets continue to head higher:
"About 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings and IBES estimate that profits fell 7.8% from last year. That’s bad, but not as bad as earlier expectations for decline of over 20%."
Plus we all know that Central Banks and governments are on standby to flood the markets and economies with as much money as needed to cushion the pandemic fallout.
I had read about that trade deal Hoop - though I cant recall where exactly.
It is in Businessdesk this morning behind the pay wall of course. https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/e...nal-trade-deal
Free (preferential) trade agreements are always welcome and touted as a win win etc etc
But our foreign trade performance over many years has been rather mediocre
chart courtesy mhreddell
A coup for China’: Analysts react to the world’s largest trade deal that excludes the U.S
Analysts said economic benefits from the mega trade pact are modest and would take years to materialize
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/rcep...rade-deal.html
anyway bitcoin is on fire
Moderna vaccine 94 % effective.... corona hit stocks will soar again
No worries couta....no body is forcing u to take. Just like other vaccines...u have a right to choose.
If u Happy not to travel or n is pretty safe n covid under control...we should be fine.
Europe n USA will be fist two countries desperate to get the vaccine
I take the flu vaccine every year, despite being young and healthy. Every vaccine is a minor superpower as far as I'm concerned - besides potentially stopping me from getting sick occasionally, it should help prevent others getting sick who may be more susceptible. I work in healthcare so I consider that particularly important.
We are incredibly lucky to live in an age where vaccines are so common.
Thank goodness for our economic future that NZ is definitely on the right side of the trade equation in being a party to the trade deal.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/trump-...g-us-hegemony/
The US has lost the trade war with China and US is in a terminal but slow state of economic decline.
Excerpts :
"Although Trump himself is impulsive and unpredictable, I thought back then that when it came to China policy, his team comprised hard-eyed, cold-hearted, rational strategists. However, Krugman termed these people morons, the worst, and the dumbest. So I thought he was gravely prejudiced against the Trump team. But now, after watching the Trump team’s China policies in action on trade and technology, I am forced to admit they have proved Krugman correct: They are exactly what he accused them of being."
"If Joe Biden wins the November 3 presidential election, the US will have to relinquish global domination and exceptionalism to end its trade and tech war. Team Biden will face colossal challenges in its trade and technology negotiations with China.
So as it turned out, the Trump team is indeed the herd of the morons and dumbest policymakers that Krugman described. He was right, and I was wrong."
Completely agree. I was a solo parent working 50+ hours a week and every year flu made for some hellish weeks till we used the vaccines. Only did it for 3 years but what a difference it made.
Looks like Trump is tweeting the USA into a bad Christmas. They only have themselves to blame but are we all going to pay?
Trade aspirations and requirements of China and USA are totally different ...China needs markets for its cheaply mass produced common person goods etc where as USA needs Governments on its sellers list for hi tech super costly weapons and other highly value added goods like planes etc .
Also USA thinks its the biggest economy on earth and its business is more important to others then theirs to US ...rightly or wrongly thats how most have taken it so far ...Economic power even over shadows its military might ...
But for NZ as a small low tech / agricultural based soft commodity producer ...it works very well to be on side of as many economies as it can ...
We are much better placed then majority of the countries at this time of this pandemic only because of our superb exports performance as demand for NZ soft commodity exports is much less elastic then goods exported by China / Australia etc ...
Now we are the lucky country ...:p
This statement is plainly wrong. While it is correct that the flu fatality risk for "normal healthy individuals" is low - they are (when infected) still spreading the virus around to less healthy parts of society who well may die from the flu.
Taking the flu shot is for anybody one easy measure to protect the general population. No reason to take the shot?
https://www.healthline.com/health/fl...#shot-vs-spray
Everybody is entitled to their opinion. Its like with religion - no matter how nonsensical somebody's religious views might look to anybody else (and they always do ...), we are all entitled to them unless we are actively using these views to damage other peoples health and livelihoods.
Spreading misleading and wrong health information is damaging to others. Any spreader of anti vaccer mumbo jumbo is directly responsible for killing people. We have seen that in Samoa (measles), we see that in many third world countries (Anti vaccers against polio vaccination) and no doubt we sill see that in many parts of the world when the Covid vaccine is rolled out.
No need to jump on the bandwagon of lies and conspiracy theories.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/t...formation.html
Fully agree ...importance of neutrality to NZ is far greater then most other countries ...Also the wisdom of our leaders ...our collective sense of fairness ...
Normally people get leaders which they choose / deserve ...as leaders also come out of same society and in true democracy ( which we are a shining example ...I even call NZ almost direct democracy as our MPs are so well connected and responsive to the roots of our society ) they are just extension of the way society in general thinks ...
yet they all fail to invest in NZ
I did not talk about Tamiflu, didn't I? Pretty sad attempt to deflect my arguments.
As well - lots of weirdo webpages coming up when using your proposed search string. Seems to be the same nutters who think the earth is flat, Trump is an honest politician and the sun circles around the earth ...
{/irony on}
Just remember - if its on the internet it must be true ...
{/irony off}
There is only one article with a forward by Jim Meehan MD and Tamiflu is just part of the main article, please go and do some proper research before spouting forth more trash can assumptions. PS-Dont bother answering to this post until you've put in a couple of hours of studying up this article and its references.
An anti-vaccine doctor from Oklahoma, Dr. Jim Meehan, wrote an online post about why he would no longer vaccinate his children. It’s pretty clear that his post is not so much a discussion of his own children (most of whom are adults) as an attempt to deter other parents from protecting their children from preventable diseases. His post is basically a set of claims trying to convince parents that vaccinating is very dangerous.
His claims are nothing new – they are strictly out of the anti-vaccine playbook. But the post has received some attention in the anti-vaccine world and was shared several thousand times, likely because many people treat an MD as an authority on the subject. So I decided to take a few minutes to explain why his claims are not good reasons to reject expert opinion and not protect children from disease.
Dr. Meehan’s claims fall into several categories (which will be discussed individually below):
- The diseases we vaccinate against are not dangerous, and it’s okay, even good, to encounter them naturally.
- Vaccines have toxic ingredients.
- Vaccines are dangerous to children.
- The science behind vaccines is corrupt because the pharmaceutical industry controls it and then corrupts it.
- We should listen to him because he is a doctor and knows what he is talking about.
Maybe you should read about who it is your quoting. If this is NZ then the USA is beyond hope.