Originally Posted by
Left field
Always good to have a conservative Buffet/Graham view of ATM, however I'm afraid there are aspects of your thoughts that are just a tab questionable. Examples;
1.) A2m does not have a market cap of $10 Billion. As at last Friday its market cap was $8.2 mill (source ANZ)
2.) A2m is not solely reliant on China or Infant Formula for its Market cap. As 1HFY18, 70% of its sales were from Australia and NZ. 26% of sales were from Asia (i.e. more than just China) and 16% out of USA and UK.
3.) Thus a 100% of Market Share in China is not priced into the current SP as you claim. A2's current share in China is about 5% of the IF market. It may grow to 10% over the next year or two, but no one is expecting 100% IF market share in China.
I could go on, but suffice it to say, DYOR.