No time to be selling at this SP wait for $3.00
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Christ no, not with a big dividend imminent as well as a broader capital return.
We all agree that Management and The Board have let us down too many times...and it is a big factor in any decisions owning this stock longer term...
But they have screwed the pooch so badly here that they have no option other than to distribute the vast majority of the cash pile to shareholders this year. Even though they probably don't want to...they have to now.
And their comment in the last announcement about being able to support "sustainable dividends" out into the future means that they must have confidence in continuing to gush positive FCF.
So if the business is expected to produce more cash than they need to invest out into the future there is absolutely no need to keep the majority of the cash on hand now.
I am anticipating a minimum total distribution of $90M this year. If they have any brains they will dig deeper into their pockets and go $100M.
$55M tax free capital return payment with a $45M fully imputed dividend.
If they don't do this...I can virtually guarantee you none of these guys will have a job at Sky for much longer. They are keenly aware of this now, so have no choice.
That would be a great result for shareholders, and still leaves Sophie and the crew plenty of cash to 'supercharge' existing projects on the strategic roadmap. See? I am a very reasonable man.
Not a buyback, I am saying a capital return payment.
They can cancel 1 in 10 shares like TWR if they want to (I don't think they are required to cancel shares though).
It does take a few months from the time they announce the capital return to file paperwork with IRD, get court approval etc. But if they pull finger (i.e. announce it next week) I expect we would receive the cash in our bank accounts early to mid October.
They could but then it is more complex.
I think they just need to keep it very simple, especially given the recent fiasco.
$55M capital return payment (which may or may not reduce shares outstanding) along with a $45M dividend. $25M total dividend the year after.
It's clean, it's simple...and it gets cash into shareholder pockets fast.
If the SP is still low next year they can consider a buyback program at the expense of a reduced dividend if that makes sense and has shareholder support.
All you can say is that its taken an inordinate amount of time for them to work out what to do ..... indecision or ineptitude?
You'd think that they would have had things teed up for all options a while ago .... before they fired any starting guns
You get the feeling they don't want to part with the cash .....unless they buy something
Wonder who else they doing DD on?
Aye, you are dead right. If they weren't buffoons they should have the capital return/dividend plan set in stone already (even if it became Plan B after they decided they were in love with Mai FM...)
Given they have not announced what they are doing with our money yet, they are most likely hastily trying to cobble something together. I would be disappointed, but my expectations are quite low now in terms of their behaviour.
They should have been been paying a dividend from 2021, even if a token one to start with. Their desire to not pay us any money is the understatement of the year. It took a public humilation and dressing down from some of their institutional investors to snap them out of it.
One poster suggested they might try to revive Video Ezy. Right up their alley.
Not 100% sure how this works, but Philip Bowman and Joan Withers were last re-elected in 2019. Three year cycle - does that mean we get our chance to send a signal this year?
edit: here is the 2019 meeting notice: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...809/308794.pdf