Glenn says outstanding quarter for IKE and it sure was
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...672/375047.pdf
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Glenn says outstanding quarter for IKE and it sure was
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...672/375047.pdf
well that some good news in a dismal market.
Winner(n) forcing us to actually pay attention to the numbers....
Nearly $7m quarter revenue , rapidly growing , market cap $108m. The markets valuation of Ike is totally insane in my view.
ANZ cloud companies median valuation is 3.3 times last 12 months revenue.
25th percentile is 1.6 times and 75th percentile is 6.3 times
Drivers of what to apply are Gross Margin % and Revenue Growth - IKE about the middle of pack re Gross Margin % and above average growth. But IKE is a relativity small outfit and this tends to 'discount' the valuation a bit.
So one could say that on what the market values cloud companies these days IKE is worth say 5 to 6 times last 12 months revenues - say $105m to $126m or 66 cents to 80 cents a share
But then multiples have fallen significantly over the last year or so - get back to the glory days maybe 2 bucks
Source my mates at Clare Capital
Hardly any decent volume on offer at current price level. Suspect profit taking will probably happen north of a buck...
If and it is a medium to small size if (in my opinion not a big if) Ike have doubled their revenue in a years time then by the same reasoning you would value them between 132 and 160 cents per share if this was being discussed in July 2023. People claim that markets are forward looking and the market is sometimes and sometimes isn’t . I am forward looking so I view the current price as a bargain.
But as SB9 points out there are essentially no sellers so really I have no clue what the current price is now.
The share market is great. To me it’s a bit like going to the mad hatters tea party with Alice.
Good to apply some wonky logic to this...
Revenue $16m March 2022.
Replace Q1 2022 of $2.6m with Q1 2023 of $6.8m gives us rev for last 12 months of $20.2m
Growth figures below from the Annual Report, take into account $13-15m of signed contract backlog which will be realised at their clients discretion.
Av 5yr revenue growth from 2023
CGU - Cash Generating Units
CGU1 Core platform 31%
CGU2. Spike. 5%
CGU3 Structural. 10% ($1.1m revenue FY22)
CGU4 Insight, acquisition Jan 21 75% ($285k revenue FY22)
Tricky to nail overall annual projected growth for next 5 years, but got to be high 30's looking at the above numbers.
75c SP = MC $120 which is 6 times last 12 mths revenue, puts it on the 75th percentile.
Interesting to apply this to other "SAAS" companies.
ERD $115m rev, MC $220m = 2 times 2022 revenue.
PX1 $33m rev, MC $63m = 2 times 2022 revenue.
Valuing a SAAS company is a piece of cake. Tui.