Ok. Well for what ever reason, whether it be the convertible notes, the Gold price or the technical traders, the double top has been confirmed. This means it's not looking too good for the short-term. Look out for a bottom around $3.64...
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Ok. Well for what ever reason, whether it be the convertible notes, the Gold price or the technical traders, the double top has been confirmed. This means it's not looking too good for the short-term. Look out for a bottom around $3.64...
I got back in this morning, happy to take a punt again.
Update: Well, it isn't below $4 now, which was the key for the DT formation. The best bet is to wait for the end of day price today and Monday, I got a bit ahead of myself ; )
This could be a consolidation period because the space between tops isn't more than a month: http://www.trending123.com/patterns/double_top.html
That's why it's best to wait to see if it closes below the confirmation point. i.e $4.00. But good luck to you!
Currently OGC.ASX is right on the confirmation point: $3.17, though it looks like it has a bit of fight left in it ; )
Seemed to be while there in the last couple weeks where the Canadian price was following the nz/oz movements. Now we appear to be back the other way around. I wouldn't be surprised if bakers was continuing to sell down and driving the price lower, and then in a months time finding that they have taken another significant holding. Can't see why they would have wanted to sell down with didipio commissioning just around the corner
What does today's announcement mean? Is this like dilution or something different?
https://nzx.com/companies/OGC/announcements/230639
Yes, it means OGC has pulled a swifty again, pretended it was doing one thing and then 'changed their minds'. It was a big overdraft facility, and was turned into 30 million relatively cheap new shares for the banks. This does however set in place dilution of 10-11% for current holders, and values the NZ shares at about NZ$3.80 or so, unless the market is feeling generous. Once again Baker Steel got out first.
Havent checked back at the announcement but the banks are underwriting at CAD$3.11. There is a book build process so isnt there a chance the final price might be higher?
Don't really understand what the need the money for, I dont recall seeing any concerning amounts of debt on the balance sheet on previous quarter reports. That overdraft that they organised should have been sufficient until the $ from Didipio started flowing. Unless there is something else in the pipeline
Sorry to the folks that suffered this drop.
I thought I'd re-post an interesting post I saw on Hotcopper:
Ref: http://hotcopper.co.nz/post_single.a...msgid=11076608Quote:
I remember speaking to the management a couple of years ago about the debt levels of the company and their ability to repay it. They had this crazy idea that they could from the cash flow from the NZ operations, I had a nice chuckle. Cash flow from NZ is negative and the creditors want their money back and the company is DESPERATE.
They're selling shares to brokers (like Macquarie) for $3 and they will then on- sell these shares to clientele. Who will obviously dump the shares when they realise they've been sold a lie. I'm dying to hear Macquarie's sale pitch on this to gullible investors.
Key Points in Presentation:
"The views, opinions and advice provided in this presentation reflect those of the individual presenters only. No representation, or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions and conclusion contained in this presentation."
At this point I'd stop reading, but I was interested to see what lies were contained within.
"Increased production and decreasing cash cost profile"
"Increasing cash flows from four operating mines"
LMAO... did they not read their own financial summary posted on slide 31?
Production decreasing ~ -20%
Cash costs up ~ +25%
Cash flow decreasing -25%
Operating Profit crashing ~ -80%
Net Profit in the NEGATIVE in an increasing gold price environment.
The direction of OGC's price now depends on the gold price, and early results from the new Didipio mine.Quote:
From NZResources:
Big new raising lowers OceanaGold’s share price
Simon Hartley — 14 December 2012
Shares in New Zealand’s premier gold miner OceanaGold Corporation (ASX, NZX & TSX: OGC) have dropped more than 15% during the past three weeks since raising $114 million in Canada -- having sold 30 M shares to a syndicate of underwriters.
Commissioning of Oceana's Didipio gold and copper mine on the northern Philippine island of Luzon was unscathed by typhoon Bopha earlier this week after sweeping through the main southern island of Mindanao, killing more than 700 people, with a further 900 reported missing.
OceanaGold announced the Canadian capital raising on December 4, and its shares subsequently plunged 16% from $4.10 to trade around $3.45-$3.50 yesterday.
From a year-low of $2.27 in mid-May, OceanaGold shares hit a high of $4.50 late-in October, before the start of the slump in early-December.
At the time of the Canadian capital raising, Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre had cautioned about the likelihood of a share dilution and loss of value with the issuance of 30 M shares about to go to market.
The securities will be offered in each province of Canada by the purchasing syndicate, with the exception of Quebec, in a short form prospectus and possibly in Australia, but on a private placement basis.
The company said the Canadian cash raised would be used to reduce outstanding debt and provide balance sheet and operating flexibility.
McIntyre said yesterday the share dilution, softening of the global gold price, a weak US dollar, Federal Reserve fiscal stimulus and profit taking had all combined to undermine the share price.
Gold prices have waned in the face of some “relatively good news” in recent days on the fiscal cliff being faced by the US on January 1, when taxes are legislated to go up and public sector spending is to be cut.
“Oceana stock has captured attention, not just investors, but globally as its now one of the largest producers in Australasia,'' McIntyre said.
However, that popularity and a rising price meant some investors during the past year would be taking the opportunity to take their profit from the rising value.
OceanaGold has forecast increasing cash flows from its four operating mines - two at Macraes in East Otago; at Reefton on the West Coast; and Didipio in the northern Philippines, the latter which being commissioned and due to produce concentrate by next month.
*Simon Hartley is senior business reporter for the Otago Daily Times.
Check this out "OceanaGold to lift gold output as Didipio comes on stream": http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c...on-stream.html