Still we can expect some volatility in markets. However we should see strong year end rally in most markets including DOW.
Printable View
Still we can expect some volatility in markets. However we should see strong year end rally in most markets including DOW.
sorry I didn't explain what I was thinking ...I thought was breaking downwards as reinforced by the long spike up on that single candle and then a turn down
Attachment 7614
Hmmm..that pennant shape has gone more bearish as the days pass...was an ascending triangle but morphing into a rising wedge type shape..and its hard to tell as its in the margin of error but even with the rise today I think its broken out downwards........If it has broken, things could get ugly very soon
The DCB event pattern is still playing out
The break-down from the pennant formation has produced a Flag formation from which on current futures sentiment represents buying opportunity. I'm not so sure about that except for the very short term, one has to consider the medium to longer term, which is clearly down. Expect the lows to be tested in the not too distant future.
Attachment 7626
jmo dyodd as always
BAA
The dead cat bounce event pattern is progressing now on the NASDQ and S&P500. The DOW is lagging somewhat but the rising wedge within the DCB event has been broken on all 3 indexes indicating another wave downwards towards a target of 15000 for the DOW and another confirmation that a phase 1 Bear market cycle could be operating..More evidence adds to the chances of seeing an official bear market cycle status being called ~14600 ...and become a member or of the Bear Club
Singapore is the newest member to join the Bear Club..A Club with a increasing membership
Update 11.10 Strong performance continued up to the 100EMA, could push up to the convergence of overhead resistance around 17300 where the overhead trend lines and the 200EMA are lurking. A back test didn't happen but remains likely as indicators are topping/crossing down, and bearish divergence on volume now showing on my chart. Decision time postponed whether long, or short but shouldn't be too far away.
Attachment 7660
The topping process seems to have taken hold, much smaller daily price swings, momentum edging down and all indicators turned over downwards, volume still reducing. What global recession? Watching the NZX you'd think we were immune to the big markets, but we'll see about that soon enough. As the confidence seems to be petering out of the biggest world equities market along with a fair amount of red ink around other globals, it'd be fair to say I think that the ST bull move (sucker rally?) is rapidly running out of puff. Maybe a last gasp is around the corner but doesn't seem anywhere near enough buyer enthusiasm to break up through the massive overhead resistance. Perhaps the GS rampers et al are happy enough here to take profits, go short and enjoy the next leg down. It will unfold very soon I feel.
Update 21/10 (20/10 USA pre market open)
Never mind that Shanghai is off 3%, maybe it'll bounce back. DOW futures still ahead a smidgeon up at time of posting but not above the massive technical resistance. You'd think world peace had broken out, sovereign debt and deflation had been fixed, US corporate earnings were in aggregate boosting and US employment on the up tick? All the while NZX seems immune or blind to the current topping process in the US. We'll see about that soon enough, after all there's plenty of US big money in our equities market.
Update 20/10 (19/10 USA): DOW was down a bit for the whole session until the very last when it popped up above the open, forming a 'hanging man' candle for the day, a bearish reversal signal, though requiring confirmation. DOW futures are down again slightly as at time of posting this.
---
DOW gets anti-gravity. The news is full of 'no US interest rate rises' this year and on balance, corporate results are looking OK, so here we are, DOW puts on the booster. Now above the 100EMA and right on massive overhead resistance including trend lines and the 200EMA, all indicators perked up. The stage is set for an epic battle between bulls and bears.
Attachment 7674