Originally Posted by
Blue Skies
It's interesting you bring that up.
The polls are basically pretty even, except in the preferred PM where Adern is streets ahead of Luxon & Luxon continues to slide from 29% down to 21%.
One thing the polls don't tell us, & we've just seen this in the US mid-terms, is how many extra voters in a particular demographic who might not get around to voting, will be driven by supercharged issues to vote. e.g. something like 72% of women 18-39 turned out to vote for the Dem's over issues like abortion, cancelling out older conservative voters.
I could be wrong but in the current climate crisis, National's climate lite policies like reversing the ban on offshore oil & gas drilling, & fumbling over EV policies are likely to drive massive numbers of younger 18-39 year olds to the polling booths on Election Day.
Polls tell us which way a percentage of a demographic are like to vote, but not how many of that demographic will turn out to vote esp if there's a critical issue.
Expect climate change to become a supercharged issue leading up to the elections.