Geepers ok so causecelebre posted a link that had already been posted, its not the end of the world. I would rather someone posted twice by mistake than didnt post at all. But sulking about it :scared: Naaa lets all move on :)
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Geepers ok so causecelebre posted a link that had already been posted, its not the end of the world. I would rather someone posted twice by mistake than didnt post at all. But sulking about it :scared: Naaa lets all move on :)
Slightly off-topic, but a bit of a left-field purchaser for Happy Valley Milk (who are planning to specialize in A2 milk products)
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/busi...cid=spartandhp
ASX Announcement
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201804...6lmymp4kgy.pdf
Interesting - Longreach Oil Ltd is an oil and gas exploration company.
http://www.longreachoil.com/
That's like NZO buying SML ...
I guess they probably have the money, but can they add any expertise to this venture?
It looks like they are venture capitalists really and will change the business name to reflect their largest holding. Must be very cashed up and are looking at all this A2 opportunity and going after it. I imagine they will sell to the highest bidder once they have established some form of A2 rich supply.
I see ATM slip sliding away and it could stay that way until just before the next sales ann unless there is some earth shuttling news just like the Nestle news release, wheres the bottom for the time beaing ?
Depends on whom you ask ;);
$10.60 - EMA 100?
$9.50 to $ 10.50 - some gaps to fill??
$8.56 - EMA 200?
Your guess as good as mine ... but I don't think it will drop through the EMA200 :) unless the sky caves in ...;
However - something around $10 with a big resistance around NZD10,57 (AUD 10) and NZD10 (round numbers) sounds quite possible. Time will tell ...
A2 expands into South Korea, nice.
Interesting that they're looking at initiating a premium A2 product blended with natural N.Z. manuka honey, see paragraph 7 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...790/277745.pdf.
What a way to go for wealthy young families to give their little prince or princess the very best possible start in life and sure to command a hefty premium price ! Maybe ATM is the interested party doing due diligence on Comvita lol
Expecting a ripper market trading update later this month too.
No worries... will be back to testing all time high's in due course.
Sure they need to going by the following..
"The a2 Milk Company™ product range will be sourced from Australia and New Zealand, with nutritional products produced by our key supply partner, Synlait Milk Limited. Initial sales are expected to commence during the second half of calendar year 2018. "
Sorry Fonterra...
I suspect all the A2 farmers supplying milk to Synlait for processing will now be busily buying up hives and planting Manuka!
Yuhan is Korea's most trusted company for the last 15 years!
http://eng.yuhan.co.kr/Introduce/History/index5.asp
Other interesting reading on their site.
Hope ATM not becoming a hyped up announcement driven stock ..like some others
I remember the momentous day that Tip Top put hokey pokey into their vanilla ice cream. That was some event and changed the company’s fortune.
Geoff Babidge interview on Skynews following y'day's announcement of their expansion into South Korea. Very pleasing and Geoff drops some subtle hints about their future plans. Enjoy....great to be ATM shareholder.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5771046815001
The shorters must be busy today?
Hoping we continue to drift lower towards 100DMA over the next month... happy buying.
Here's 3 treats holders have to look forward to between now and August(Excluding any additional surprise announcements like the SK one yesterday) 1.Probable trading update over the next couple of weeks. 2.Very probable inclusion in the next MSCI index rebalance, May 14th for announcement, effective June 1st. 3.Extremely probable stunning end of year result in August.
Agreed and also in June last year they updated the market again so two possible market updates before 30 June 2018. Behind the paywall article on NBR today stated that the CEO was very pleased indeed with growth in China, (code speak for a stunning market update coming later this month ?).
I'm not so sure we'll get a trading update this month. Things seem to be tracking nicely as expected so there may be no need to update the market, unless they want to shut the shorters up again!
Definitely starting to get me tempted to top up, but think I'll wait to see if there's more downward pressure on the share price.
Has someone recorded this the wrong way round?Simple mistake?
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...tm.nzx-316867/
I'd be surprised if they didn't update the market as they'll know their third quarter results later this month and I would think there's material information in there that based on their past history the company is happy to update us with. I'm expecting a ripper update based on the CEO's confident statement about ongoing growth into China in yesterday's behind the paywall article and previous statements by the company about good January sales e.t.c.
Just the fact that they have finally managed to get adequate product supply since Synlait doubled their canning and drying capacity with new facilities in Auckland last November means product availability to consumers would have been good for the first time this quarter.
The more time I spend learning about this company the more I am surprised about its growth. Normally companies with a larger market cap have limited grow potential.
ATM is now the larges public company by market cap in NZ and is more than likely growing its NPAT by over 100% for the year to 2018 compared to 2017.
But if that is not impressive the company is likely to have over $300mil sitting on standby which could go on advertising if that was ever needed.
Wondering if I am missing something, I try to be wary when investing but I can not see much to be wary about in this case.
The company is really in early stages of growth - with much of the success to date having been on the back of the Chinese IF market. Undoubtedly management has been astute, and has been focused on the market, partnering up on production/processing - not having (much) money invested in stainless steel, or management time focused on production. Strong operating cashflows, money in the bank, lots of growth etc. Sure the PE is high (approx. 60) but still lots of growth initiatives still to come to fruition, and lots more on the horizon. Compare that to Bellamy's at about 164 and I know which I'd rather be holding.
Of course a lot of posters look at ATM through rose-tinted glasses (as I recognize I often do), but a lot of holders bought in sub $1 - so they are going to have a bit of a soft spot for this company. They are a long way above water, and I personally have done very well out of them, but like many not as well as I might or could have!! Like anything there is risk, especially around potential competitors and where that a2 space goes to - natural when A2 are doing so well. The company has a perennial history of under-promising and over-performing, and see nothing on the horizon to change this view. Even the announcement Monday with their Korean partner seems a very good partnership, and a reputable player.
The frustrating thing for holders is the share price volatility, and heavy activity of shorters. Also that A2 updates never come around fast enough......
Even if they replicate the 1H 2018 result in 2H 2018, then their PE will be 45.
More than likely ATM will make more than the $99m NPAT in the second half. This means a forwards 2018 P/E less than 45. Growth over 100%, all common indicators absolutely stellar and likely to improve. And all that cash pile, could well be growing by a $1m a day. Still trying to be wary but it is getting harder by the day.
I'm expecting EPS of 30 - 35 cps this year and ~ 45 cps next year. I have them on a FY19 PE multiple in the late 20's. Market is forward looking.
I see considerable potential for ongoing SP appreciation in the years ahead and believe on FY 19's estimates the company is arguably one of the best value high growth stocks on the NZX. Just hold and have heaps of patience.
Keep an eye on the 50EMA for a reliable (so far) support, for accumulation or buying opportunity. Currently bouncing off it again after range trading since the late Feb spike. Not a silver bullet by itself but clue #1 on the chart.
As Beagle mentioned above, a lot of love for ATM. It was not your typical discussion about a company, were there was talk about potential and caution.
If one had to give a reason to be cautions with A2M then "a passing fad" is likely all we can come up with at this stage.
However the fact that Fonterra and Nestle getting involved makes this feel that A2 is more than a fad.
You've got to admire the way they quietly keep evolving their product mix...with the latest little gem buried in a nice understaed way, (as usual) deep down in the South Korean launch article about a new variety of A2 infant milk powder blended with N.Z. sourced manuka honey.
Lets think about the impact of this for a minute.
This further differentiates their product from the likes of Nestle and others.
Suppose you are Mr and Mrs comfortably well off Chinese parents. Why wouldn't you buy the best product infused with the legendary manuka honey for your little prince and princess ?
Mercedes-Benz are doing massive business in China, why ? Because people think they make the best cars in the world and there's a lot of wealth in China. (Whether they are the best brand is quite another argument but I am simply giving the illustration of how wealthy Chinese customers are acting to emphasize the importance of this new manuka honey blended infant formula).
I think we could see a very astute play here where A2's platinum IF becomes the one infused with manuka honey and the gold standard becomes the one not blended, or perhaps the other way around depending upon whether their market research indicates people think Gold is more prestigious than Platinum.
I wouldn't think so iceman.
Why would ATM want to buy out whole of a manuka honey making company, just so that they can add that as one of the ingredients in a new range of product. Would they not be better off leaving that in the capable hands of their cornerstone manufacture SML to source it for them as part of their supply chain process?
Not really sure about the nutritional desiribility of adding sugar (honey) to infant formula. But I'm sure they will have that covered.
Mate its not going to happen, CEO said in a behind the paywall article on NBR it's an overseas party. There's substantial supply of manuka honey from sources in N.Z. other than through CVT, something some people have their head in the sand about but quite frankly that's their problem :) Quite apart from that ATM management are smart cookies. You don't go wasting shareholders money buying poorly performing companies with management of questionable integrity at 35 times forward earnings multiples, that would be stupid, something ATM management clearly aren't !
The fishing was good today, I bit on the bait, should have noticed your smiley at the end eh mate :) Guess I am a little frustrated as a former shareholder of CVT. They could be a really good company if management could get its **** together. I think there's deep systemic issues in that company that they're not disclosing.
I know Forest went to a recent annual meeting and came away unsatisfied with the "answers" he got. Anyway, sorry I am off topic on a tangent...back to talking about sweeter things, ATM infant formula blended with manuka honey, how sweet and full of natural goodness does that sound !!!!!
Its going to sell like hot cakes fresh out of the oven at really premium prices. Further margin expansion for ATM going forward ?
THIS IS A HARD FISH TO CATCH Today and yesterdai. Have just upped my buy order from 11.90 to 12.22:eek2: Maybe better buying tomorrow.
What’s this amateur hour you guys talk about?
I bought some more at open this morning .....does that make me an ‘ amateur’
Nice to see the SP holding well today... trending above the mid $12.50 zone. Maybe the market is anticipating an update soon?
Another factor may be a recent CNBC report quoting a Danone source saying demand for its IF was up MORE than 50% (FY18YTD). How this translates to A2 remains to be seen.
Apparently there was quite a lot of short interest last week. I think they must be starting to cover their positions now as we have a number of events / announcements in the short term that could see them absolutely hammered if they don't.
In my opinion these include the probability / strong probability of
1. A very strong market update late April updating sales for Jan- March and possible annual forecast, (as per last year)
2. 14 May Announcement of MSCI index inclusion leading to some institutions and retail holders positioning themselves, (buying in late May) for the inclusion adjustment process effective date 1 June
3. Index inclusion on 1 June which is the date any index tracking fund that tracks the MSCI must buy in.
4. A further market Update in mid-late June as they did last year
Then we have the annual result to look forward too after that.
Why anyone would want to hold a short position and try and swim against that strong incoming tide of positivity is beyond my comprehension.
Shorts got absolutely crushed by the HY+Fonterra deal from 4% of the float down to a low of 0.09% which coincided with the top of around $14.
Without the shorts this never would have reached $14 so quickly... shorts are everything when it comes to a2's event driven rallies and the next legs up.
I sure hope they stay around... we don't want to chase them away now, let them make a little bit of profit on the cool off periods and frantically cover on good news.
Attachment 9634
It seems that the market expects faster earnings growth from ATM-NZ than from its peers and also a turnaround in its current ROE. It has an impressive ROE. Those factors may be reason for trading at a very high P/E ratio. According to the P/E ratio it is overvalued but growth players and technical players have become bullish.
Farmers work with animal nutritionists to make sure that their cows are given a healthy and nutritious diet. Milk is full of vitamin A and D, calcium and protein, and is a part of a healthy and balanced diet. Dairy cows require a lot of energy to make delicious and nutritious milk. Cows eat a mixture of grass hay, alfalfa hay, grains as well as corn and grass silage.
Are they readily available in NZ?
According to OECD FAO agricultural outlook,
Future growth in crop production is expected be obtained through higher yields - 90 percent of the increase in maize production is expected to come from increased yields and just 10 percent from area expansion. Global food commodity prices are expected to remain low over the next decade compared to previous peaks. Demand growth in a number of emerging economies is expected to slow down.
India is expected to be the most populous country by 2026. India is projected to account for 42 percent of the increase in global milk production over the coming decade to meet their rising per capita consumption levels for milk.
Agricultural trade is expected to remain more resilient to economic downturns than other sectors.Globally, per capita food demand for cereals is anticipated to be largely flat. Growth only expected in the world’s least developed countries.Additional calories and protein are expected to come mainly from vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products.
Growth in meat and dairy production will be achieved from both larger herds and higher output per animal. Growth in poultry production accounts for almost half of total meat production expansion over the decade, while milk production is expected to increase compared with the previous decade, mainly in India and Pakistan.
Net exports are expected to increase from the Americas, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, while net imports are expected to increase across other Asian and African countries. Prices of agricultural commodities are subject to considerable volatility.
Not many buyers this morning. Am at the head of the queue at the moment:).
Something smells fishy around here. Have 3000 to buy, started at 12.51 and every time I move it up 1c somebody else moves theirs up 1c at exactly the same time. So I moved it up 2c, same thing happened. Would it be ASB playing silly bug...s? Is someone at ASB buying ATM and putting their order above ours every time? If this is happening to me, it could be also happening to you:confused:.
1/8th of my portfolio is the maximum my nerves can stand, was one seventh but the price has come down from the peak. I tried holding a higher allocation and felt uncomfortable so now take solace from the same number of shares in Synlait knowing they'll benefit both from A2's success and from a number of other growth initiatives. It is what it is, some people can handle the stress and good on them and others are better to admit to themselves they're more comfortable hedging their bets with SUM other high growth companies as well and that's okay too.
I bailed out of my $13.00 purchases this morning. TA says break of $12.00 targets $9.50, being a $2.50 move, equivalent of the move up from $12 - $14.50 and also filling the gap between $9.50 and $10.75.
I withdraw my forces and wait for another day, wounded but still alive.
Yes I'm very overexposed with this holding 25% of my portfolio. Still I see no reason for panic and if it goes back down to $10 on no news it will be the biggest bargain on the nzx
One way of reducing the anxiety of daily ATM fluctions is to have even bigger holdings in the likes of GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, CSL, THL.NZ.
This song from the Boss, say's it all......"Keep your eye on the prize (Hold on)" ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBle58G0dsA
Enjoy!
HaHa, I must be hyperexposed then, now makes up 50% of my portfolio after selling my GNE at a loss to buy more today(Not keen on the power companies until that review is completed) No one knows where the SP will head, TA is just guesswork, it could go up 50c on Thurs or drop another 50c, all depends on which game players have the numbers. There's something for everyone in this stock, shorters that haven't been incinerated no doubt make money, as do traders and of course those going long with a vision for where this company will be in a few years ,will make the most of all. Any update or positive piece of news will catch out many game players with their pants down, just imagine if a one of those is released on Thurs morning.
I am surprised you guys are taking such big positions.
http://teroluoma.blogspot.co.nz/2014...-investor.html
I quoted following information from the above link.
A great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock.
"Put all your eggs into one basket and then watch that basket" proclaimed Andrew Carnegie a century ago. "Do not scatter your shot. ...The great successes of life are made by concentration." As Graham points out, "the really big fortunes from common stock" have been made by people whp packed all their money into one investment they knew supremely well. Nearly all the richest people in America trace their wealth to a concentrated investment in a single industry or even a single company (Bill Gates, Sam Walton, Rockefellers...). The Forbes 400 list has been dominated by undiversified fortunes since it was first compiled in 1982. However, almost no small fortunes have been made this way - and not many big fortunes have been kept this way. What Carnegie neglected to mention is that concentration also makes of the great failures of life.
Sure - some people play roulette by putting all their chips onto one number and some people make big money by putting all eggs into one investment basket. Some (actually quite a number of) people survive as well by driving a car without buckling up!
The story however is not complete as long as you don't talk as well about all the people who put all their money into one basket and lost ... and the people who just died because they didn't buckle up. Nobody sings about them.
Nobody has all information about one company and its future - i.e. making money by putting all eggs into one basket is not clever, it is just lucky.
The point of diversification is not to get quick rich ... but it is to make money without taking undue risks, and to still have some money left if one of your (skillfully chosen) investments go pear shaped due to unforeseen circumstances ....
I found that I sleep better being a bit p*ssed off about lost opportunities than worrying about a non-diversified portfolio. If age has shown me something is that I can't take anything for granted. I possibly can't foresee major macro events that severely could affect my investments or that maybe a company that has promised so much has suddenly stopped firing. I might not get rich with my current strategy but then all I want to be is comfortable.
Couta, your personal experience is just one data point in a sea of data. Great you've been lucky so far by not diversifying, but does this mean this strategy will work for everybody else as well?
Only people who are able to see the future should put all their money on one card ...
Are you sure you are able to see the future with 20/20 foresight?
I know only about one who can ... and we are not even sure about her ;);
see weed reporting from the Black Beagle Café. Last month collected divs on about 14 or so companies. This month only have 2 companies, next month who knows, but we all still in the same boat waiting for ATM next update, then up up and away to $15, as Beagle says today was last years update date, so not long now:t_up:.
How many crazy people out there have loaded up on property as their number 1 investment. They have no shares, just 1, 2 or 3 investment properties. These people are not diversified yet most people would think, nice one, you can't go wrong there...
The way I see it, if someone wants to go load up on a particular sector that they like the look of and make that 50, 60 or 100% of their portfolio, then they are not necessarily following the rules of diversification but they are backing themselves, their research and going for it.
It is high risk and the high rewards and potential losses reflect that. Also, most people who buy shares do so with their own money, so in my opinion this is way less risky than someone buying a rental property at todays prices and borrowing $800k.
“Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land” Ecclesiastes 11:2 (NIV)
Predicting the future is extremely difficult. A wise man follows time honored biblical principle's because it is prudent to hedge one's investments and diversify risk.
This company looks very good but it is trading a four times the share price of just on one year ago. (I have it recorded at $2.99 in last years balance sheet as at 31 March 2017).
Diversification per se is ones worst enemy ......most of the richest people in the world are not ‘diversified’