Wrote about week's volumes not hourly mate ...have patience ...Understand U are very short term trader so patience is not your forte ...:p
www.chrislee.co.nz
This week's market news covers Turners.
Day 6 ....148K @ VW $ 4.67 ....TRA heating up ...
Day 7 ....158K @ VW $ 4.75 ...after all day long stand off ...still many retail are loosing patience and giving them easily .....
Volume need pick up ahead if expected numbers have to be traded before Friday close ...but SP is appreciating slowly ...may get a big burst soon !!!
PS : 100K crossover happened after close @ closing price !!
Not much fizz today, with 20k left on the table at the close at $4.80.
Seems like no urgency on the part of buyers so may have topped out?
Day 8 ....216K @ VW $ 4.778 ...Going well towards big Friday match session ....SP going up every day ...VW going up every day :t_up:
PS : Till we get more then million vol days it cant top out easy ...imho !!
Yes getting close and going to be an interesting one to put into my little database of all the NZX50 inclusions over the last several years (capturing price trends before the inclusion and after, together with how liquidity played a role in it). Will be interesting to see how it compares to the recent HLG experience. I see the later had an intra day peak at $6.94 on 8th of May, wound up 2 days later closing on $6.85 at the closing match the final day. It'll also be interesting to see how Turners' comparatively better liquidity (than HLG) feeds into the price dynamics. The required shares for inclusion were both roughly 2.5% of total shares, but Turners average daily volume in the 250 trading day sessions prior to the announcement, as a percentage of total shares, was about 1.3x that of HLGs. Likewise, it has a 'looser' / more available register. By that I mean while it has terrible liquidity and underrepresented institutional ownership it still has a lot more available large blocks and small insto holdings that are available to wrapped up into selling blocks, rather than HLG which had a true mum and pop share register.
I've a database of all the NZX50 inclusions and I started calling them index pops, which seems to have caught on. But I named it that because it illustrates both sides of the inclusion; the enthusiasm and price run leading to the inclusion, and more often than not level of reversion thereafter. Sort of like blowing up a balloon fast, and letting the air out fast or popping it. People tend to focus on the first, more fun, phase.
In my post #8122 on this thread I speculated as to how the ETFs go about purchasing their shares (and by instos we are really only talking about the Smartshares NZX50 ETF), which is just speculation, I don't know first hand how they go about doing it. I've talked to a friend who works overseas for Dimensional Fund Advisors and he said Dimensional purchase all their shares for index inclusion in the final closing match. I have a call with someone at Smartshares on how it works in NZ so will be interesting to learn more about it over here.
But in my post #8716 on the HLG thread I talked to the overhang/hangover factor in index pops. Clearly a lot of the volume in the many months, and weeks, ahead of an inclusion are speculative purchases looking to bag a quick gain. And often with high expectations and aren't necessarily committed long term owners. The excess shares traded above what is actually required for the inclusion, and the level of the price gain relative to the expected pop I reckon has a big impact on the the short and medium term price dynamics post inclusion. Or particularly when retail buy shares thinking the ETFs will be forced to buy from them when often in reality the ETFs are already sorted in advance. I reckon HLG had a 1.2m share overhang post inclusion (worth recalling for instance 1.74m shares traded on the final day, 260k more than the 1.482m shares required for the inclusion) which would have played a role in its steep reversal. I reckon a lot of people purchased with spec intent after hearing & thinking it was going to the moon and when it didn't they started selling fairly aggressively to avoid the downslope of the reversal.
Not saying that will happen here and but I think the market psychology of how these work is interesting and each one a good learning experience (and perhaps that is playing a role here so far too). From my core, dividend holding perspective, I wouldn't care too much if the price didn't pop as I place my value on price stability and predictable appreciation over the volatility. But of course, there is always a price. Only a few more sleeps.
ps will share some of my index stuff after the inclusion.
Thanks Muse for your very informative post ...tried to give u positive feedback but system refused saying need spread it first !!!
HLG vs TRA similarity are few like retail stocks ie retail owned , low liquidity but most important difference imo is both at different cycles at inclusion time ...HLG was staring at bad times ...which all knew but ignored but now reality has taken over SP while TRA is doing great guns business cycle wise ...its eps is in uptrend thus its SP is well supported . Forbar had underperform rating for HLG during inclusion if I recall right while same FB has outperform for TRA with spot valuation of $ 4.48 ...it shud make a difference to the outcome too on this inclusion POP ...as HLG had very willing sellers while TRA will have reluctant sellers but then not all think too much ahead ..lol IMO if we have a POP in next two days of say $ 5 plus then it wont fall steeply afterwards ....if we dont have a POP and final match price is say $ 4.80 or less then fall afterwards will be very shallow and short-lived ....it has solid support at $ 4.60 after its results albeit index inclusion ahead must have played a role in keeping that support intact ...still I think it should / would be well supported around $ 4.30 for short term bottom after index inclusion done . At present its in no man's land for me ...not attractive enough to sell neither a bargain to buy ...at $ 4.30 is an attractive buy and above $ 5 its a reluctant sell
PS : All index funds will be buying in final match session of last day so as to do inclusions / rebalancing at closing price of the day to avoid index tracking errors
Excited about Day 9 ...no index funds buy before like many think ...they cant ...they need buy on closing price of last day to avoid index tracking error ...so TRA will be bought around 2.2 Mil on Friday match session .
But this info many traders / operators etc know ...so they accumulate to cater for that big demand on Friday match ...they supply the stock ...match price comes seeing how high is closing price coming out and how many sellers want to exit .
Even if traders / operators started accumulating in last 30 days which is a lot plus a punt on inclusion till its officially announced thus was risky ....only after official announcement it was a certainty of exit route on last Friday match ...30 days VW shud be about $ 4.40 maybe ....after announcements ie last 9 days shud be about $ 4.70 ...they will expect some profit too ...so add 5% for effort minimum comes to $ 4.95 ...then demand supply mismatch keeping in view its SP / EPS is in super uptrend for actual business reasons and not POP reasons etc ...
Overall positive for today and tomorrow ....today shud set the tone for tomorrow's massive match session !!!
Good luck to those on the pop trade thingie. Will be happy to watch from the sidelines
Yes that seems the impression at the moment ...though I am also not in the sell camp even at $ 4.85 ....it surely will be more next year
But imo its Friday match will be very interesting and big POP can happen as total trading so far after announcement is just over a Mil @ $ 4.75 ...requirement of Friday is 2.2 Mil ...still some shortfall to accommodate ...thus need entice people like US
if follow hlg the high already been first day and 4.80 be the lower high this week and then settle at lower price after end of week. be interesting
Is it POOPING yet? 😂
Day 9 ....244K @ VW $ 4.789 ...
Tmrw shud see more then 2 mil to total weeks 3 mil ...Bull please note !!!
A number of shares left on the table again at the close at $4.80 and below not a good sign in my opinion.
Do your calculations take account of the fact that TRA was in the small cap index previously and is transferred out from that index contemporaneously, so wouldn't shares simply be swapped (at market) from one index fund to the other? And vice versa for PEB and Synlait? So actual pressure to acquire on-market could be less?
I will let the tmrw's closing answer that for u mate ...also I am not forecasting any SP here ...just volume as can be clear from my post
All index funds buy their requirements in the final match session of last day so that to get stock at closing price of index balancing day ...please watch the orders flooding from 4.45 pm ...then of course will be supplies ...but total vol will be over 2 Mil for tmrw ...and that was only I mentioned ...no price forecasting mate
Lets do a Poll of TRA closing price today ....
My pick is $ 4.75 ...
Then on Monday we can have the next poll, which can be what will the closing price be on Friday 22 December.
That will be equally interesting in my view.
I pick $4.92
A panic sell $4.64… just mix it up!
We need more participants please ...Where are Bull / W69 and all others ...U have time till 4.45 PM only ...
$4.83 at close - based on picking a random number out of the air...
just back at the desk. anyway im picking 4.80 . im out by the way good luck for others
I'm going low as well. Purely because anything I take an interest in seems to tank the next day.
$4.65
Has anyone considered that members of the TRA Board/management might themselves take the opportunity to reduce their personal/related party holdings to diversify their investment exposure?
Since TRA reported recently they would be within a tradeable window to do so. A sensible time to act if motivated to do so in my opinion, and they may have been approached directly?
I think the big boys got their crossings sorted at predetermined agreed price, which could be around that 4.75 mark. Don’t expect too many fireworks at closing match imo.
Where ever is that predetermined crossing ...market price will have to be that at close ...so one has his order at $ 4.74 then he gets sold and gets $ 4.75 final closing match ...so if no price action fireworks at match then at least volume action fireworks is sure to happen ...funds will get their shares at today's closing price as thats their requirement to buy at closing price of last day .
I think it’s all going to be big anti-climax
Action has happened …..just the paper shuffling to happen
Something is happening!!
Looks like $4.77…
Last Change Buy Sell Open High Low VWAP Volume Turnover $4.770 https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/Content...ransparent.png1* 0.2% $5.100 $4.290 $4.780 $4.780 $4.710 $4.750 68,976 $327,667
Buyers Buy Quantity Prices 3 100,924 $5.100 2 723,506 $4.900 1 1,297 $4.860 2 788,985 $4.800 1 2,512 $4.790 1 300,000 $4.730 1 63 $4.700 1 9,319 $4.650 1 3,230 $4.640 3 87,000 $4.600 16 2,016,836
Prices Sell Quantity Sellers $4.290 9,582 1 $4.300 80,000 1 $4.310 50,000 1 $4.320 50,000 1 $4.330 50,000 1 $4.340 4,002 1 $4.350 50,000 1 $4.360 50,000 1 $4.370 25,000 1 $4.400 25,000 1 393,584 10
Now $4.73…
How do we see what's happening? (if we can?)
It’s coming up again… $4.77
GTK is matching at a new recent high of $6.70. Maybe I backed the wrong horse here.
Now $4.69… man my other shares are having a good lift! It’s all go!
--------------------------
$4.68 close, down 10 cents. Who won the poll?
looks like one seller for 500k @ 1.74 left out in the cold
It's all over at $4.68.
Now on to the next question. What will the close price be next Friday, when the dust has settled?
savaged and look at all the sellers who missed out :scared:
lol:):):)lol I'm all out at a profit. Thank you Basil. Ok where's the next one. Maybe back to HLG before it gets back to 5.80c while waiting.
so who won and lost? Roulette if your trying to play this game
3.265m volume today if no more crossings.
back to fundamentals now. if it was valued at 3.60odd before index inclusion momentum and yes we have had some upgrades and good news. do you think that was worth a $ 1.08 more to valuation ?
Ditto. Even made back what I lost holding on to HLG after that 'pop' fizzled. Enough for some new clothes at HLG, but not a second-hand car at TRA.
Hope to buy back in to both companies for the long term, when the time is right. Great iconic Kiwi brands with excellent div yields.
Day 10 Finals ....3.268 Million @ $ 4.681 ....wow ...volume more than expectations ....SP less then expectations ...maybe it was too widely participated as safe stock to speculate ...still not bad result for holders ...
Now for next weeks fizzle expectations ...may not happen ...short term bottom $ 4.30 ??
All the operators / big players orders get removed after show over ...only retail orders are left ( mostly ) shows many retail also missed on selling today as still showing more then 200K at various levels ...shud be some pressure next week ...may offer good buying opportunities ...Bull will be rubbing hands gleefully ...lol
As the closing match and subsequent processing of off-market transfer forms is a unique time to move meaningful blocks of shares for large holders, coupled with we may still be in an open period for insiders, dont be surprised if we get some SSH or director/officer notices.
Agree with your sensible thoughts ...
What makes me wonder is the total Vol of the match session ....if the total buy side was index funds ( most likely ) then why they bought almost 3.3 Mil against market expectations of 2.2 Mil ?? How can be calculations so adrift that one full extra million got traded ??
I wondered that too. First, while brokers estimate the # of shares required to meet indexation, they are (clearly) just estimates. Estimating S&P index inclusions & weightings - from the outside - is a dark art and I've seen a number of brokers periodically change the way they maintain their index watching index when "their understanding of S&P's inclusion process changes", usually after they've spoken with S&P. Those broker estimates get done way in advance and while usually spot on in terms of who gets included, the constituent weighting probably more variable. You'll recall S&P only distributed the index shares data for capped and equal weighted indices on the 8th of December.
Second observation is those estimated shares required just for the NZX50. TRA also added into the midcap index which adds more demand, but probably less than a quarter than that of the NZX50 (based on eying the relative capitalisations of FNZ & MDZ).
While when we talk about instos and ETFs needing to buy - we are mainly talking about Smartshares in the NZ context. It's possible a few extra instos wanted to be involved. For HLG, the broker estimates for required shares were spot on. Perhaps in that case additional quasi index trackers opted not to participate in their discretion and did here - or maybe the estimates were in aggregate just wrong - I just don't know.
What is also kinda interesting is to look at the number of shares traded in the closing match but equally important adjust session (when off market agreements are reported).
TRA
Closing match: 1.902m shares
Off market trades: 1.294m shares (40.5% total)
Total: 3.197m
Gentrack
Closing match: 1.174m
Off market: 2.601m (68.9%)
Total: 3.776m
GTK had a fantastic run - finished its pop at a high. Turners mirrored Hallenstein Glassons, with its intraday peak 2 days prior to the final close before inclusion.
edit: actually see TRA hit 4.85 intraday on 4 december.
I think this post is a worthy one to unpick there was some off thread discussion on why people would lob such low sell orders in the face of high buy orders during the 15 minute pre close session leading up to the closing match / closing auction.
From the NZX: "The Closing Auction occurs at a random time 30 seconds either side of 5:00pm. Like the opening auction, the closing auction is a single price print which becomes the close of the stock on the day. The Closing Auction algorithm is exactly the same as that used in the opening auction. It will compute the price at which it can clear the greatest amount of stock, and all bids and offers at, and overlapping, this level will execute at this, single closing print price."
Probably most DIY investors here are using some sort of platform that shows a market depth with buyers ranked high to low and sellers ranked low to high, each at their respective top 10 price points. But it certainly doesn't show everything. The sell depth above only had 393k of sellers whereas 1.9m shares wound up clearing in the closing auction (but worth calling the depth in the 15 minute period can change as orders are made or amended).
I wouldn't imagine those low sellers expected to their $4.30 -4.40 a share - they were trying to get certainty that that tranche of their holding would absolutely sell in the closing match at the higher prevailing weighted close price. And then I'd imagine some had tranches of shares they were more relaxed about not moving placed at higher price points.
For most retail investors they don't need to participate in the closing match as the liquidity is there to sell at anytime in the lead up to inclusion, and indeed, sometimes at better prices as in the case of TRA/HLG (but not GTK). But I imagine that for traders who had purchased personally meaningful holdings, & were determined to sell into the closing match & wanted certainty it would transact in order limit to potential post inclusion weakness, might look to place sell orders at a lower level than they want or ultimately expect to achieve to ensure they are in overlap during the closing auction. They might not expect to get that price - but that's the risk they take when clicking the button. In theory it'll have an impact on the match price, but given the sheer volume and weight of the ETFs buying and large holders selling, might not move the dial much, but will depend on how comfortable they are with the quantum of shares needing to be purchased and what the depth is looking like.
Anyway, just some random thoughts, and in the spirit of discussion around special events like these index inclusions. Interested in other people's perspectives as each one of these is a new learning opportunity.
All the excitment and dismay of being included or kicked off an index really just shows how absurd the concept of market indices is
They fail on at least two counts. They represent little value to investors in terms of purpose, and also they do not represent the market.
And what does say being in the NZX50 do …Synlait for instance got included after it had ‘won’ but got kicked out when it became a loser. Essentially Synlait was a drag on the performance of the NZX50 …almost like by buying high selling low lol
TRA today should trade weak ...looking for sub $ 4.30 sometime in this week ...
yes be interesting. Now we are back to fundamentals on the company and not momentum based trading.
anyway fundamentals we are talking about car segment as other segments not much growth in them worthy of mention
to me they had tailwind of covid which reduced supply of new cars and caused demand for used cars which pushed up prices allowing tra to boost margins last 3 yrs. this has gone now
the last yr they had clean car discount scheme which pushes prices further up boosting there margins again. this ends this week i believe as govt ends the scheme.
NZ in recession demand is slowing although used car sales and prices holding up for now. i dont see this continuing far into next yr. why people will hold onto car longer now due to cost of living constraints and turners have said market has shifted , demand now at lower price points which reinforces this narrative of mine.
I would be concerned if all Turners seemed to be was a sales yard, but their whole business model is somewhat protected from a recession. They move too many cars to not pick up on the trend fast. If cars at a higher price point are not moving they will offer car owners less for their cars until things start selling. I agree price may move south in short term
CCD inhabited used car imports boosting prices of locally sourced stock. ie fatter margins almost straight away on all inventory on hand when it got introduced. With the cancellation used car imports should increase again boosting supply of cars on the market. ie 2CC and others CCd scheme was bad for them and good for turners.
incrementally subsiding now from Fridays close at $4.68. I predict $4.30 by the end of the week, and possibly sooner.
Everyone has become smarter after the HLG experience ....No wonder it cud not break above $ 4.80 ...lol :p
But happy to note that WE are a bunch of fast learners ....we know how to read between the lines of Gurus ...as sometimes they hide their real messages
I just bought a car from Turners last weekend. It was a japanese hybrid taking advantage of the clean car discount while it lasts. I had told the salesman that I was not that happy that the dashboard was in japanese. He just sort of shrugged his shoulders. I bought the car anyway as it seemed what I wanted and was $2,000 cheaper than the higher mileage but same model and year car at the toyota dealer. When I got the car home I looked on youtube how to convert the dashboard display from japanese to English. I said to the wife I don't think this will work, otherwise Turners would have done it on all their imports. Less than one minute later my dashboard was in English! I am amazed Turners does not do it itself and nor did they bother with putting the car clock on the right time. Overall though I was happy with my purchase.
That will be bloody TINA’s fault.
There Is No Adjustments
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...731/409831.pdf
Not surprised to see this - Todd mentioned one of Grant's goals was the NZX50 entry - so no problem with him enjoying some of the spoils of that achievement. Still owns a big whack.
Compare that with MFT chairmans Bruce ...he almost adds to billion's worth he already has ...but then TRA is no MFT ...still a fine company no doubt ...he chooses to cash in rather then let his holdings grow !!
PS : Also he spoiled Mr B's $ 5 boat party ...I was looking forward to that ...lol
Well fingers crossed for ya that he buys the shares back for less than he just sold them in the weeks or months ahead. I’d expect there will be a fair bit of that going on lol
Re 5 bucks the pathway is there (I reckon) - just needs a bit of time and journey may not be linear.
Good on Grant.
Most probably added to his Ferrari collection.
Could turn out to be a better investment than Turners' shares.
Funny day today
My Food Bag Director buys millions of shares last Friday and share price rockets up today
Turners Chairman sells a couple million bucks worth and share price sinks today
Yeah right.?
Just thinking of what Sharetrader/talk posters would have to say....
Basil Beagle would go right off his head [again].....
W69 and BlackPete are just warming up too.....
Think I would be the only person to welcome him at 2CC.Trouble is buying $2mil of 2cc shares would send their share price to over $2.00.
{mmmmmmmmmmNot a bad idea,I could forget Nissans and think of a Ferrari myself] Bring it on......lol