It has a gap to fill down to 54. Filling it on very light volume. A few sellers above at near term past resistance, but nothing special (no sign of any LARGE SELLERS)
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It has a gap to fill down to 54. Filling it on very light volume. A few sellers above at near term past resistance, but nothing special (no sign of any LARGE SELLERS)
So, where have summarily now got to after last week’s activity and all that good discussion on the forum;
District health boards are now signing up contracts, the 2000 test user programs rolled out over the last year in the US and NZ are presently coming to a close and PEB have advised that they expect those user programmes to lead to contracts within 2013.
The competitive technology edge that PEB have demonstrated scientifically, and through clinical trials is being confirmed by the market making them ‘best in breed’. Also, the barriers to market entry are enormous, requiring years of trials and regulatory approvals, and there is no serious competition on the horizon.
Cancer blog sites are very active with cxbladder chatter and demand side discussion, and it is clear that those unfortunate enough to be inflicted with bladder cancer are lobbying their urologists very hard indeed for this technology.
It would seem that there is little if any reason to doubt that we will see an increase in sales at HY14.
With the SP being so exceptionally far below fundamental valuation, and 25% below its six month high of $0.76, IMO it would take really very little now to spark a step up toward fundamental valuation, an announcement, or just simply a medium size buyer in what is a low liquidity stock. Could happen any time.
I wish all those who have supported PEB a rewarding few months ahead.
Hi Mac - nice post.
However, some help please, when you talk of "fundamental valuation", can you give me some understanding of how much you believe that is and how you calculated it? I have seen Sparky's "back of the envelope" valuation calculations but am trying to learn a more orthodox way of valuing a SP generally speaking. There appears to be lots of differing views from different quarters.
Much appreciated!...
I don't quite understand how you can calculate a "valuation" when there has yet to be any earnings.
I'm assuming, the value is more of a "speculated value", rather than an intrinsic value..
An excellent summation MAC. I know of no other company that has placed itself on the market with such praiseworthy research and expertise. Thank you for your input.
Disc: Holding, and topped up again this morning (along with another couple of others!)
Hi Dente, we each use our own valuation models and methods so it always seems a bit difficult to discuss and compare FA in a post, but if the inputs are reasonable then all is good, yeh ?.
I’m using revenue and gross margin streams as summarised below providing me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25.
This assumes the $100M revenue forecast that PEB have made and also the gross profit margins they have estimated, allows for a gradual ramp up in growth toward their 100M target, a 3M loss at HY14, first profit in 2015, and a 40% forward gross margin from that point. Happy to compare assumptions and inputs, I like to be a bit conservative as PEB don't provide a lot of guidance.
Attachment 4833
Yes, assumption based on announcements, rate of progress and the signup of mid central health.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE130...-cxbladder.htm
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/236858
The tone from the 10 September announcement seems to suggest that the completion of the two local user trials was a big success with the DHB’s and I do like the resulting comment from the PEB commercial manager, Brent Pownall;
“We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand’s healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and patients alike.”
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937
It will be an interesting week for the market due to the FOMC meeting in the USA on Wednesday (their time). It is the meeting at which the FED is likely to signal the beginning of the end of its bond buying programme....if it does confirm that the markets will be down....if it postpones it the markets will probably see new highs. Probably explains the hesitancy within the market so far this week.
There certainly seems to be some increased talk on some of the health forums regarding cxbladder. Casting my mind back to the agm, I think PEB are due to launch the new cxbladder website on september 20th, so this should provide some more info for customers.
Thanks Mac - certainly helps me understand from a different perspective. A think it is always a bit easier when they have consistency and runs on the board (a la Ryman etc) but as you point out, PEB do play their cards close to their chest. Probably have to until they are in full on retail mode.
I think you've answered your own question as to why the sp has good well. Any medical product takes time to get to market but PEB now has one on the market generating sales. The product is know to have a competitive edge on current forms of treatment. It's in a massive market (highly regulated obviously) but once USA sales start this SP will be considered very low indeed. Huge potential in the stock with a product in the marketplace.
That's the nature of the industry. Products take a long time to develop and then a very long time to validate. Without the validation stage (clinical trials) no company would be willing to purchase the product. I'm sure they could have moved quicker in some areas, but they have been trying to do it "cheaply". As for your last comment, any competitor would be years off commercialisation (think of how long it has taken PEB). You also need to remember that CxBladder is likely to be continually improved with new biomarkers if and when they are discovered. This means CxBladder will stay at the leading edge.
I believe sales in the first year wont tell us too much. What you want to be watching for is LUG's and the like signing up (which may take a year or so to broker that agreement and conduct user trials).
Haha i was planning on entering today but hesitated because of the US meeting on Wednesday. Had some unpleasant experiences buying in before important meetings.
Kinda wish i had now looking at the 3.6% increase hope it doesn't take off yet.