Haven’t seen any posts from Black Peter for a while. Hope he still owns his shares in this great company.
Haven’t seen any posts from Black Peter for a while. Hope he still owns his shares in this great company.
A very strong result from Motor Trade Finance.
Net interest income and fees have increased 32% to $45.8m
• Operating expense ratio has decreased 1%
• Profit after tax has increased 38% to $11.6m
• Underlying profit after tax has increased 71% to $11.3m
Q&A with Aaron and I starting at 5pm for those interested.
You can ask questions on Friday either through the audio function, or the Q&A function or you can email me any questions to todd.hunter@turners.co.nz
You are invited to a Zoom webinar.
When: Nov 24, 2023 17:00 Auckland, Wellington
Topic: Turners Q&A for Sharetrader Community
Register in advance for this webinar:
https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/regi...R0SqI304ByfFRQ
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Todd asked that I publish my website - happy to provide it - I update this page pretty near every Monday by updating the datawrapper chart. The website is neglected, but the chart is constantly updated
https://www.jonette.co.nz/turners-au...ised-cars.html
Or https://www.datawrapper.de/_/GeaXh/?v=79
How did the Q&A go? Any recording?
Friday after work beers got me
I missed the first 10 minutes.
Turners are very happy sourcing most of the vehicles they sell in NZ.Means they get them saleable and sold very quickly.
Finance book cycle takes around 24 or 27 months.Next September all the low interest rate loans will end.Means the NIM margin is starting to improve,and then will be back to high.
Interest rates are affecting property owners and prices.They are buying a property in Tauranga for $8.5mil that the owner turned down $11.5 mil for a year ago.
They are happy with long settlement dates on property they buy,as it means they can get consents and their plans organised for how they want the site set up.
Working on a number of opportunities ,with more available in the current property market.
Interesting Todd mentioned a number of the board are involved in these deals.
Seems there really is a "team" effort right through the business,from The Chairman,the board,management and staff.
A lot of very capable people enjoying their work and achieving great results for themselves and shareholders.
Todd and Aaron were very generous giving us their time.
I thank them.
ps.Beagle asked good questions,which were answered fully
pps.I think people under estimate just how clever Turners are with their property deals.
Any property they buy and develop they get the development margin,and the property is valued higher as it is leased to a listed national client,ie Turners Cars.
Great use of part of their insurance float.
"Interest rates are affecting property owners and prices.They are buying a property in Tauranga for $8.5mil that the owner turned down $11.5 mil for a year ago.
They are happy with long settlement dates on property they buy,as it means they can get consents and their plans organised for how they want the site set up."
Is there any uplift in property values as a result. Does turners do sale and lease back
Edit: you have answered the first part re development margin etc
Second part of your question..The properties are owned by Turners Property Holdings Ltd.
A lot of the funding comes from Turners Insurance co.So although not sold they are most probably leased by Turners retail.
Winner 69 on the other channel pointed out there will be a difference between book and market value of these properties.
I expect it will be huge.
no sorry but I can break it by region. Price points would have taken a lot more of my time to collect. I simply add this data on to my longer standing inventory collection I do for rental property, so the data I collect is similar, yes that’s was not as useful as expected. I’ll look at something going forward. Trademe make it difficult for greater than 30,000 totals so a national look would be troublesome, but possible.
i do a check on subscriptions however, that’s now much easier https://www.datawrapper.de/_/NGtpq/?v=4
How many sleeps before the next BIG ANNOUNCEMENT ? I was told Friday night 2am someone will post the link of the impending good news
NZX50 Inclusion and maybe Midcap Index inclusion both together and exit small cap index ??
NZX50 is followed by NZG and FNZ of smart shares ...big money funds as they are part of their low cost KiwiSaver funds
MDZ folows Midcap index ...which can be additional buying if included ...maybe already part of it ...I have no idea ...but from memory I recall it includes all rest 38 stocks of NZX50 which are not part of top ten index followed by TNZ ...so I reckon getting into NZX50 first time will get TRA into MDZ ie mid cap index too !!
I really enjoy your positivity about all issues ...lol
Yes but then mostly retail interest also increased ...our forum mates can vouch for that ...many original holders like Mr B and W69 added more for the index pop ...funds dont get involved in such small matters ...imo
Almost all bought over $ 4.50 ie after the results must be non retail ...as our retail especially our forum mates are very bargain conscious ....and it was no longer in bargain territory ...or cud be very informed index inclusion based buying / warehousers for passing to funds on 15th Dec
We will know for sure next Monday how it behaves ....if inclusion announcement comes as expected by most !!
IF it gets included in NZX50 ...it will be surely included in FNZ fund size $ 585 Mil ...even 1% will be $ 6 mil , NZG fund size $ 648 mil ...1% will be $ 7 mil and MDZ fund size $ 138 mil ....1% additional $ 2M maybe ...these are only Smart shares local ETFs ...maybe many foreign funds may also be tracking NZX50 index .
its safe to assume additional requirements for all these funds maybe of order of $ 25 mil worth of stock ...all this squeezed in 10 trading sessions starting from 4th Monday Dec 2023 ....yes many operators and brokers would have prepared to help funds get their requirements ...so your $8 mil traded can be half for this ...rest still need be done ....imo IF INCLUDED $ 5.20+ possible ...just my rough estimate ...and all know I am always very OPTIMISTIC ...:D
So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).
Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).
I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.
Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.
Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!
Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...
[QUOTE=Muse;1031805]So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).
Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).
I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.
Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.
Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!
Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...[/QUOTE
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/me...nts/#indexNews
It will show here ...NZX announcement will be first to show ...dated 1st Dec 2023 ...but dont know the exact time ...surely after market close ...comes from Sydney office if last announcement is the cue .
Yes ..will be fun ...hopefully it will do better then HLG as its on UPTREND on fundamental basis also unlike HLG at that time ...just like GTK ...results were great and that leading to bigger inclusion pop ...I reckon
This is my view of it. This is just a passing thought. I do not trust the depth. It could be a lot of big holders with floating big orders to sell at around 4.85 to $5, just to keep the sp stable. Next week after the announcement tomorrow you may see those orders float away and disappear so then there is a clear run up to 4.85 and beyond to $5 just a theory I maybe wrong.
Hey alokdhir ….you on duty all night and will post outcome as soon as announcement?
Thanks in advance and
It's official. NZXO announced. GTK and TRA added to NZX50 index and MidCap Index and removed from Small Cap index.
Reverse applies to SML and PEB.
Congrats to Todd and team for driving earnings growth to allow for the increase in market cap and entry into top 50.
I personally have only ever bought TRA shares and see no point in selling in an inclusion pump. Happy to hold as the company continues to expand over the next 5 years onwards
Recent inclusions of similar stocks albeit not in their prime time ie HLG / VSL have shown a POP of 11-12.7 % from a day before announcement .
CHI was an exception it just popped less then 5% ...maybe too liquid ...not sure why not ...as that also got included in NZX50 plus portfolio plus mid cap index in March 2023
Keeping in view history of HLG / VSL ( only mid cap index inclusion ) and general positivity around TRA ...I am picking a target of $ 5.22 + before the inclusion transfer ....but also need bear in mind whole forum here was expecting it and prepared for it ...can be negative for SP ...lol
Hope shares go to $5.50 plus
Not yet decided ...getting overly influenced by very very positive posts here about its future ...also have seen HLG did a pop then a bust but did stabilise pretty well after inclusion ...so this may also do similar or better ...keeping in view its doing better currently then HLG ...also growing dividends are always welcome if the SP remains steady ...
Here I am just trying to learn what happens during such times etc ...so mentally trying to think ahead ...W69 thinks its $ 5.50+ POP ...then it will stay above $5 after that also ...hopefully :cool:
Here is the folly of following or getting overly influenced by promoters or Gurus ...they are quick to move on as they DID recognise the long downtrend way early but many still keep holding as they still like the yield ...TRA / HLG they moved to ...leaving HGH behind long time back ...TRA has yield plus SP appreciation ...need keep pace with smart investor's ideas ...lol
Some " Promotors" and "Gurus" hold HGH [bought under 60 cents],HLG,and TRA.
The odd one added 2CC to their portfolio under 35 cents.
Why would they sell HGH when their yield is nearly 20% on cost.?.{in fact they are enjoying a "free ride"].
Holding a "free" bank stock is a good idea for any portfolio in my opinion.
HGH did get well over valued thou. Wasn’t it trading 1.6x NAV? Where as 1.1x more of the historic avg multiple
If u talking about yourself mate then I will just highlight what have been told to me many times here ...its the use of the capital which matters ....guess how much more capital growth wud have come from a share who was not only providing yield but growing its SP too ....its just a thought ...nothing more ...its all about better use of our limited capital ...so it makes sense to move on from downtrend stocks when u still have many uptrend ones in your portfolio and thoughts
HGH are part of our core dividend portfolios.
Having a solid dividend income allows me to have larger aggressive higher risk portfolios.One in Aussie One in NZ.
This year the higher risk portfolios have been outstanding.Aussie ACF 60 cents to 95 cents,XRF 80 cents to $1.20 and ATP 3 cents to 9 cents,with an announcement due on Tuesday.
In NZ GEN has gone from 5 cents to 8 cents,while my 2cc have gone from 35 cents to 79 cents.Wife and I have substantial holdings in 2CC.
Good on u mate ...U are doing well as always . My advise or thoughts were not for Gurus like u but for followers like me ...that we need to switch too with leaders ...like Mr B / W69 left HGH long time back stating it will be wasting capital by doing nothing for long ...can utilise that capital better else where ...which they did and reaped rewards too .
TRA opening price estimates ....Mine is $ 4.75 !!
Currently my interest is in Australia, Singapore & London stock exchanges and I have 15 holdings across them (plus the NZ 2).
Most of my investment money is currently in Term Deposits! but the balance between TDs & equities is at the most extreme for a long time and I hope it swings back soon.
Disc: Arrived in Zagreb, Croatia (New country!) today
be interesting how the price moves up till dec 15th
trading on a backwards P.E of 12. No reason to sell at such a cheap earnings multiple. Maybe 15+ one could consider.. but even then probably not worth it and rather just hold for the dividend and growth
Seems low volume today but is above daily average so can't be too bad
Need Muse to keep us up to date as too how many need to be bought by fundies
Will the 200k transacting at $4.82 set the benchmark now?
Day 1 ...377K traded VW $ 4.822 !!
Market Close -
Matt Goodson, managing director of Salt Funds Management, said the aggressive trading in Gentrack and Turners was “a bit surprising given they were expected to join the top 50. Overall, it was a mixed market.”
Either W69 or Mr B is selling whole heartedly ....:p
We will talk about that next week ...starting Monday ...dont worry I will not forget to remind u .
Also the shares even if bought by warehousers ...need be transferred to funds account on exchange at their already negotiated price thus market price have to that ...even for a moment that transfer takes place ...U will see above million volume that day ...lets wait and watch mate ...still 8 trading days they have
Day 2 ....49K traded @ VW $ 4.746 !!!
Did anyone notice the NZ Herald article this afternoon regarding Costco preparing to launch car sales in NZ?
Autoconnect will be a website where Costco members can view new and used discounted cars and motorbikes for sale. This could undercut dealers and existing online trading. Apparently also in Queensland already, and starting up in other Australian states.
I wonder if Turners saw this coming? And imagine if a $60 membership fee could let you access a new vehicle at less than current dealerships are pricing. Petrol and diesel are already retailed at significant mark down to my local service stations and they have a tyre shop too as part of their Westgate premises.
No, I missed that.Thanks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...KKME6YDXHPG7Y/
Thanks RTM. I lack the skills to post a link as you did, which is more helpful and enlightening for forum readers.
A bit out of left field for both TRA and 2CC I would have thought. Will be interesting to see how it is, and when it comes about.
There is a FB page dedicated to Costco NZ (like a fan page. not run by the company) and people are constantly saying prices are avg. Paknsav is cheaper.. the only good thing is you can buy different international products and buy in bulk. Im not totally surprised by this as paknsav have far better buying power in NZ until Costco can scale up
Anyways back to the cars. Not a huge risk right now but one to watch is my opinion
It sounds very similar to Trade Me rather than turners or 2CC. Unless they open a lot. I buy second hand cars through turners but new I have enjoyed dealer support. I had a Santa Fe loose the front and rear dif past warranty and they covered it. Have had issues with other vehicles I bought new and never a drama but I have noticed even when you take it to a different dealership they seem a little less welcoming.
Day 3.... 58K @ VW $ 4.638 ..
Now for the NZX20 ha ha
How Turners used three simple goals to reach the NZX50
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/m...each-the-nzx50
Prob paywalled
I can see retail is panicking at Index inclusion POP not going as per their expectations ...so far operators / accumulators are playing them perfectly .
Now retail is falling over each other to get out ...maybe too well known inclusion thus too many prepared so easy to panic few thus all ...lol
FB has spot valuation of $ 4.50 ...not too much away from where we are ...6 cents divvy next month ....regular buying interest from ETF like NZG / FNZ / MDZ / DIV as they are part of low cost KiwiSaver scheme of Smart shares ...especially NZG which tracks NZX50
At current prices I dont see any advantage in selling to funds
Think most retail investors dont really care for the pop. Most have bought in well below current prices and are happy to hold for the solid dividend and growth that we will no doubt see over the coming 5-10 years
Maybe just a handful posters from here and over there bought up too much and are trimming.
Day 4 ....20K @ VW $ 4.634 ....lowest vol so far ...seems desperation to sell is getting over ....$ 4.60 holding :t_up:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...832/408802.pdf
If we read this announcement ...in the end they say some constituent index data will be provided after today close ...regarding equal weighted etc ....maybe the reason why Index funds start their process from Day 6 onwards after getting this data ??? Not sure what it means ....
Day 5 .....56K @VW $ 4.628 ....fun will start soon ...get ready !!!
Interesting, so have you bought into the momentum traders strategy and will be trying to figure out when to exit, or do you not care about the capital price movements and plan to hold for the long term dividends?
We haven't seen you so excited about a SP appreciating stock before, this is quite contrary to your investment philosophy.
If u had the courtesy of reading all my posts on this thread then U wud have known that I am trying to learn how and what of Index inclusion dynamics of a small cap ...as this is my first time I have ventured into a small cap though a good one ...whether I stay in it for long term or not is entirely my prerogative ...like I had mentioned in my reply to a direct question on the subject . I am just thinking aloud here and learning ...as this index inclusion is not going as per plan as per many ....but my thinking is that it will go as per plan starting next week . So trying to figure out how operators can play on small investor's lack of patience or holding power ...so much to learn ...like on other channel champion and seasoned player of inclusions Mr B also thinks action will hot up next week . I am looking forward to it ...not that I am so worried about its SP but to learn and validate my theories ....hopefully that shud satisfy your enquiry !!
PS : Also I had informed all via my post reply to W69 that I will be participating in the fun of TRA index inclusion fully ...thats what I am doing ...having fun with my mates
If We agree with FB's index research calculations then around 2+ Mil shares shud be traded next week ...Current week was just 577 K ....4 times volumes expected ...will that be just sideways volume or upwards or downwards that only time will tell but likelihood is SP appreciating .
Mr B thinks it will close well on index rebalancing day with usual 3rd Friday of 3rd month volumes ...his view is that will be the top .
I reckon top will be made sooner but volumes will peak on Friday ...Wednesday is my pick for the top ...its just an estimate after studying last few inclusions of HLG / VSL / CHI etc ....will be watching with keen interest to update my knowledge on this subject ...which is very new for me !!!
After a Quick Look at volumes of last two inclusions ie VSL ( only mid cap ) and HLG ...following observations stand out
VSL 1st week volume on first 5 trading days after announcement was 110K and second week volume was 570K ...max being on Friday index rebalancing day
HLG got 5 days only after announcement and had total volume of around 2.2 Mil in those days ...highest being on day before inclusion .
If that pattern plays out then we will see dramatic increase in volume in this week for TRA
Also HLG needed as per Index research around 1.7 Mil but traded 2.2 in that week ...similarly TRA needs around 2.2 Mil and can trade around 3 Mil in this week
What effect it has on SP ...I wont comment ...but very very brisk trading surely on cards .
Why action hots up on second week so much more then first week may have something to do with index constituent or some other relevant data only being provided to funds after first week closing ...can anyone elaborate or clarify this query after reading the end part of the S&P index rebalancing announcement !!!
5k traded today , fund's are busy buying