Maybe market adjusting multiplies downwards a bit because of the higher leverage as a result of a significant amount of new debt (ie Heartland perceived to be more ‘risky’)
Printable View
Yet with their very high net interest margin, I would have thought the over subsribed bond issue would signal growing earnings.
And a massive cash warchest for investment into significant growth. The re-rate should resume shortly, once the nervous nellies and profit takers leave the room. Might not be significant but drilling into the 1 minute chart, the price action levelled off this afternoon after Friday's and this morning's dip into the recent stellar SP gains. Was always a good buy in the $1.30's, probably attracted a few traders, those nimble folks who can scalp a SP faster than a Apache.
Some dog barked last week that the easy money from the low $1.30's had already been made. Maybe some people misinterpreted me thinking I was saying sell.
All I was suggesting is the value had shifted from being a BUY to being a good HOLD for both strong yield and strong high single digit eps growth.
Possibly an accumulate rating may be warranted soon...
I will see you, and raise you 10.......$1.80 plus.....as the plan gains momentum....................
Aussie REL tv advertising due to start in July.Be going gangbusters by September.
May be $1.90......?.............lol.
What is important to me is the divie.
Gross yield according to Craigs FY 2019.. 7.6% and FY 2020..... 8.2%..Tastie.
Now down to $1.57 ... that's down 11 cents from Friday's high ... my "BUY" finger is hovering just millimetres from the keyboard ...
The thing is, I cannot see any reason for this drop. Did the SP just rise a bit too quickly and is now recalibrating? That's the only reason I can see; the SP rose very quickly over the past three weeks and is now falling back to the 50-day MA.
This post is a general observation and does not specifically relate to HGH.
"The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One."(1)
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_K._Black
I think this is (at this stage) a plausible hypothesis. If you look at the chart below using MA30 and MA100, than it looks so far just as the natural oscillations in a healthy uptrend.
Attachment 10477
If you take a bit longer term view the reddish (or is it purple? - anyway the upper) line in the chart below is the MA200) - than we see that the SP moved recently above the MA200 - and might be after a normal drop back top the MA200 ready to bounce again.
Attachment 10478
I expect it to stay above the MA200 (at $1.57), but not too worried as long as it stays above the MA100 ($1.46). If it comes down to these levels I would see that as a serious reason to buy some more ... and I suppose I am not alone ;);
Global dairy prices up a tad but whole milk powder down a tad.
Whole milk powder prices been a bit weak last couple auctions after a pretty good run so far this year ....could be a sign that Heartland share price could be a bit weak the next month or so (maybe even started to be weak) after a pretty good run up the last month or so.
Bit spooky eh
If it goes lower I will be parking some of my A2 profits here. The story hasn’t changed and neither has the imputed dividend.
I see a question on another forum being asked about Greg Tomlinson.Is he the same bloke that has recently had an unreserved dispersal sale of his animals on Gavelhouse.?
We know the Australian banks are facing quite a potential challenge from RBNZ in terms of their capital ratio, whereas even if RBNZ go to a 15% capital HGH can get there through its DRIP alone over the next 5 years.
If we look at the following three year forward PE comparison which is the average analyst view as presented on Market screener we see that generally speaking and taking the below Australian banks as a representative sample, there is no forecast eps growth for the Australian banks, actually a forecast 1.7% decline (average forward PE FY19 11.7, average forward PE FY21 11.9).
Comparing this with HGH we see the forward PE improving from FY19 of 12.3 to FY21 of 10.7 a 13% earnings improvement forecast over that 2 year period, average 6.5% per year.
Further, by FY21 HGH's PE at 10.7 will be 10% lower (10.7 v 11.9) than the Australian banks despite its quite considerably superior average growth rate.
Interestingly this compares with the FY19 PE being at 12.3 v the sector average of 11.7. I would at least expect that modest PE premium (5%) to be maintained so over the next two years I expect HGH to outperform the average performance of the Australian banks by ~ 15-20%.
The current modest PE premium to the sector average looks a little light to me given the seriousness of the capital adequacy challenge faced by the Australian banks with their operations here. I think HGH is an accumulate for growth and expect the forward yield to be 8.5% gross at the price of $1.55 assuming average forward dividends of 9.5 cps annually over the forecast period.
PE's for FY19, FY20, FY21
NAB 10.8, 10.3, 10.6
WBC 11.9, 11.0, 11.3
ANZ 11.2, 11.0, 11.3
CBA 12.8, 13.2, 13.8
BEN 11.7, 11.8, 12.2
BOQ 11.8, 12.0, 12.4
HGH 12.3, 11.4, 10.7
Full imputation credits are of course only available on HGH.
My rating is now accumulate.
P.S. I see fair value now at $1.62 and my one year price target is $1.73.
Nice work Beagle!
I topped up yesterday at $1.58, today's price of $1.55 is even more compelling.
Cherise Barrie the new CFO
Wide and diverse range of credentials
No doubt selected on merit and best person for the job
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...044/299203.pdf