Well, low volume, solid little rise... don't want to get the market too excited right before results day (and then do a PGW and fall 5% or so on day of results...)
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Well, low volume, solid little rise... don't want to get the market too excited right before results day (and then do a PGW and fall 5% or so on day of results...)
Close $1.43 is an ALL TIME RECORD HIGH CLOSE
Yippee
And tomorrow is the big day - full year profit announcement
Looks like it, or the F17 guidance / outlook is going to be a ripper
No worries ....but I be pissed if Jeff says 'well positioned', surely he's past that nonsense
Won't sleep tonite in anticipation
https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.c...spx?id=4215421
Great result!
Heartland Posts Full Year Profit Of $54.2M All good as expected
Very solid... another year of double digit growth, with another year forecast of double digit growth, collecting a nice fully franked dividend along the way with a potential huge upside of an acquisition.
Great the ROE is increasing well, and the seemingly impending doom of Dairy (and the 'huge' impairments this will create, and one of the key things holding back the share price), has still not materialized.
I'll also point out that the dividend was inline with consensus, while NPAT and ROE were ahead, so a reasonably positive reaction should occur today... Might not get to $1.50 today, but maybe by the end of the week;)
Bonus points - no mention of 'well positioned'
July 2012 - 54c sp bargain which was highlighted for all to see.
Percy did his best at that time to point out the opportunity but alas, many chose to look at the sp trending downwards (due to Dodgy Porgie selling) rather than the fact that the bank was cheap.
So 165% capital gain and a 21.8% gross dividend yield courtesy of PGC and George Kerr.
Well Balance in hindsight it looked so simple?!
Heartland Bank just delivering on what they said they would do.
SP at $1.47 to $1.48 and that dividend just keeps cranking up.!!'
Yet somehow I feel "the market" is only now starting to recognise Heartland Bank's potential .Going from the outlook statement,it is very positive.
Great that we saw it before "the market".
Enjoy your 21.8% gross divie.!!..lol
Looks like a few retail investors have seen the price and gone "gee nearly $1.50, this looks great!" "time to sell"... probably don't even know the results were released today ;)
On numerous occasions they say ' Strongest Net Interest Margin amongst competitors'
Nothing new there
But strangely they don't actually say what the net interest margin is. Wonder how Percy's favourite table of ever increasing margins looks like if they add the F16 number?
Traders will have got set; bought earlier in the buildup and lead up to results and sold today . Its pretty obvious ; but happens more on other forums; the ones that spruik/pump it are traders; a few are here too ; thats the way it is; zig when others are zagging.Just don't get sucked in and if you re in hopefully for a long haul; and i think this stock is ideal for that at pit just reinvest the divs and enjoy the run.
Seems to be much rejoicing in the streets that once again Heartland has failed to go bust despite all the dodgy lending they indulge in.
Tiger Valuations:
Today: $1.385;
One year hence: $1.468.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
This dog continues to think there's better places to hunt for value but for what its worth my assessment is, (contingent on dairy price continuing to recover and chooks not finally coming home to roost for this troubled sector which is by no means a certainty,) at the mid point of their forecast I see EPS of 11.9 cps for FY17. I can't see any reason given the modest growth forecast and risks all banks face to ascribe a PE of at most 12, (and that's really stretching my snout right out) so I see 12 x 11.9, fair value in a year's time if all goes well @ $1.43 so I will continue to leave other divvy hounds to enjoy their feeds with this one.
At least the share price didn't go down today
HBL lives to fight another day
at 1.4 times book value now ....hmmm
I look forward to hearing about what they plan to do with all their capital... return or acquisition, it can only be good for shareholders ;), Mr Market continues to ignore this...
Mr Market also ignores the fact while most 'big' bank profits are barely increasing or even decreasing, HBL is way above this with double digit growth, which is expected to continue.
As I expected, on relatively low turn over (for a results day at least) there was only a modest overall gain (I am quite sure on results day last year there was no gain... last years amazing results took a few weeks to settle in, and then the share price started steadily rising... could be the same for this year)
Word on the street is still $1.60 by the end of the year ;)
Your enthusiasm is amusing.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y26...L-20160816.png
From last years announcement [on the left] to yesterday.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: Lots of HBL & in the DRiP
GDP prices boom - whole milk powder up 19%
That'll boost HBL share price today - good milk prices always seem to help
Good for dairy farmers - good for Heartland
From yesterdays announcement - We appetite for new business with sharemilkers and dairy farmers who meet lending criteria.
That criteria just got easier to meet = more lending
And probably be able to write back some of the provisions made = more profit
$60m next year piece of cake
You have to say Heartland npat was really $55.2m if you take into account the $1m they spent on that 28 page book for the restructure and capital return
And guidance for F17 is only $57m-$60m.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11695555
Further confirmation Dairy isn't likely to blow up into a big issue
Forsyth price target: $1.50 , but downgraded to neutral as uncertainty around capital return / acquisition weighs
With the above, and NBR's article this morning, it is really hard to see how HBL's share price isn't higher
Craigs upped price target to $1,56 from $1.34. More loan growth to come and leverage and momentum to continue.
When Whole Milk prices go Heartland share price goes
Maybe a coincidence but maybe not - it could show that something drives a relationship between the two
Interesting if nothing else
Heartland keep on saying the health of their business depends on GDP growth and employment levels
Heck - unemployment rate just fallen to 5.1% (Stats NZ)
Good news for Heartland
Thank you winner69 and joshuatree... Mr Market, let us aim for HBL at the magic $1.50 by the end of the week:t_up:
Why not go for $2.00. Still 4.25% net tax paid yield with good growth prospects. Still beats any bank deposit :)
hard to believe with this news heartland's share price is actually down today, not to mention the bonus Fonterra 10 cent dividend to farmers (announced this morning I believe)
Some very large transactions have just gone through (by the looks of it), with buyers now outweigh sellers 6 to 1 ... Let's see if we can hold at or above the almighty $1.50, or if there will be a few Friday last minute panic sales ;)
Classic Heartland to move almost no where on results day, then have the share price 'kick into gear' a few days later... may it continue ;)
$1.50 what a nice end to the week.
Yes it is....certainly preferring the slow steady ascent of HBL compared with the turbulent flight of AIR at the moment.
Be interesting to see what next week brings.
Disc: Hold both.
A lot of big buyers....we will never see $1.30 ish mark anymore....
Looks like 20 people took it today at the $1.50 mark today, clearly happy to be prescribed consistent, steady growth, underpinned by a great fully franked dividend :t_up:
Not to mention a rebounding dairy sector... this time next year we could easily see millions wiped off this year's impairments, but anyhow... dairy isn't exactly one of the growth engines/opportunities I would be intensely looking at, after all it does only make up 7% of Heartland's book, maybe only 5 or 6% this time next year
Didn't you read the bit about having 'an appetite' for further dairy lendingQuote:
trader jackson ........
Not to mention a rebounding dairy sector... this time next year we could easily see millions wiped off this year's impairments, but anyhow... dairy isn't exactly one of the growth engines/opportunities I would be intensely looking at, after all it does only make up 7% of Heartland's book, maybe only 5 or 6% this time next year
So may still be 7% of the book
Well end of the week and Heartland is back as my single biggest holding on the NZX having pipped Scales.
I blame tj.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
My apologies all, but I find it very hard not to promote HBL's double digit growth and excellent fundamentals ;)
HBL has never traded at such lofty price/book multiples as it is today. Over the last year that multiple has gone from 1.1 to 1.4. (Analysts like Craigs seem to think either price/book or price/NTA are the preferred multiples to use)
A year ago (day of announcement) HBL share price was $1.13 - it of course is now $1.50 - up33%
Of the 37 cents increase 34 cents has come from that multiple expansion. The other 3 cents from improved Heartland financials.
So most of the share price increase has from improved market sentiment rather than actual performance. Much the same has happened with market leaders like Fletcher Building and Spark so it seems pretty widespread
We (Heartland shareholders) have benefited from the general market increased enthusiasm for stocks. Heartland has played it's bit by not stuffing up but the 33% has mainly come from a enthusiastic market
Long may it continue - the market appears to still have a lot of 'enthusiasm' left and HBL shares should continue to rise in line with this enthusiam
What does the TA tell us, now that it has an almost uninterrupted stunning 2 month appreciation, slamming into/through the upper 2.5 Std Deviation 20SMA (Bollinger) which has always portended a reversal? Bloody good run that's for sure, up 30% in a couple of months, question must be how sustainable it is from here, where / when to take profits, or not.
TA tells you & me it has gone up, no more no less.
As for upper 2.5 Std Deviation 20SMA (Bollinger)
http://www.levieuxcomptoir.co.uk/com...4610560791.png
Yes definitely.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: The future is not yet known, but in an infinite universe anything can happen & often does.
HBL share price still going up - good stuff
Well over $1.50 now
Amazing what a rising tide does eh (a rising tide lifts all boats (stocks) so they say)
But whose complaining
So on a scale of 1 - 6 where do you reckon we are?
http://www.wineracks.co.uk/images/wi...ne-racking.jpg
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
About here
Attachment 8247
I thought the Auckland airport balloon would burst when the valuation got to $6 per share..... Guess I was wrong
Interest.co.nz reporting today......
The Commerce Commission has filed civil proceedings in the Auckland High Court asking the Court questions about how the Credit Contract and Consumer Finance Act 2003 (CCCFA) applies to consumer loans entered into with peer-to-peer lender Harmoney Limited.
Harmoney says it's "disappointed' with the commission's action.
The loss-making Harmoney is already facing a six-figure fine in a separate Fair Trading case brought earlier by the commission, and to which it has pleaded guilty.
We are seeing regulators in UK,Aussie and here clarifying lending rules,in particular pay day lending.
Vehicle/equipment lenders learnt a lot with the MTF/Sportzone Commerce commission case, and I expect online/peer to peer lenders will learn what is acceptable with CC and Harmoney resolution.
It is in every bodies interest to have fair regulations.
Anyone have a brokers valuation post result? Thanks
Thanks Percy
Not that I would recommend listening to brokers, but as you asked: Forsyth latest rating (released 17 August this year) was Neutral with a target price of $1.50.
They note the uncertainty regarding HBL's very strong capital position... and so can't take this most likely marvelous opportunity (whether that be a UDC acquisition, or a tremendous capital return) into account in their rating.
I also note on 4-traders, the consensus average is $1.51 (with 1.46 as the low and Craigs $1.56 as the high: out of 3 surveyed: http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-B...518/consensus/)
Although, word on the street is still $1.60 by Christmas ;)
Double bagger friday. Wonderful stock this has been to me and long may it continue.Off for a Double shot latte in a glass to celebrate; cheers percy:t_up:
ps more than double with shares for divs
Heartland say they do well in good economic times (good GDP numbers)
Jeez - last week we've seen record new vehicle sales / wholesale trade up +4.4% / Truckometer back on track implying strong GDP numbers / NZD staying high / high commodity prices / ever increasing house values etc etc etc
GDP this year probably 4% - wow
No wonder Heartland share price heading to $2 - on back of record profits in excess of $60m (even Jeff won't be able to avoid an earnings upgrade before Xmas)
Global Dairy Prices up with solid increases in latest auction overnight
Generally positive for HBL share price
Just more good news
Yes "the stars are aligned" for Heartland Bank.
I do not know whether we will have any further announcements before the agm on the 22nd November or not.
I expect the agm will see Heartland give a full presentation of where they are,where they are headed, and how they are going to achieve their objectives.
No word from anyone on ANZ Bank's UDC sale.Would be a perfect fit for Heartland.
Maybe a further credit rating upgrade announcement?
In the meantime we will enjoy the lovely dividend,payable on my wife's birthday, and the solid share price.
Hard to believe the share price is still in the $1.50's really
NZ Herald this morning: Significant boost for dairy farmers
... should probably mean a significant boost for Heartland?
You'd think more and more and more confirmation of a rebounding dairy sector, with famers almost certain to be resonably above break even this season, would finally bump the share price over $1.60?
(on the basis that the dramatic jump in rural net impaired assets in FY16, of about $21m, will be reversed almost as quickly as they were added on)
Not that dairy is my main focus... we know Heartland is well positioned for so much more;)
Yes t_j and percy - earnings upgrade coming before ASM
Nearly 3 months into the new year and even Jeff won't be able to keep everything in the bottom drawer awaiting that rainy day.
See Coop Banking got a ratings upgrade the other day - jeez on that basis Heartland rating should have an A in front of it. Now c'mon winner don't get too excited,
Finally got some: Been trying to pull it down to 1.5 for the week, but chased it up to 1.54 last night and its been taken. Am ok about that as I think too November be interesting ;-)
I think it was an issue of moderate concern for HBL when milk prices fell as rapidly and as far as they did. It was never a make or break issue for HBL as they do have their eggs in many and varied baskets. Fast rising milk prices reduces that moderate concern again.
The main reason Heartland Bank share price fell so much because of dairying was because the market thought a] Heartland had a huge exposure to dairying,and b] the borrowers would default.
Neither were correct.
Whether some people see things that way could affect Heartland Bank's share price,yet analysts from the major broking houses have never seem dairying as a "major" issue to Heartland Bank.They correctly saw HBL had low exposure to dairying,and the loans had good security.We must remember HBL brought PGW's rural loan book,which was mainly sheep and beef farmers.
Relationship still exists t_j
HBL share price moving up faster than WMP is - not 'barely moved'
Interesting but a load of the old proverbial ....unless the populous relate Heartland to farming and as such dairy prices one way or the other have an affect on their profitability
Other things no doubt in play - like a market exuberance rerating most things upwards whether warranted or not.
One advantage of being small - you don't get the same scrutiny as the big banks. But industry behaviour might roll over to Heartland - if there is actually anything dodgy
http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...tification-and
Love the term forbearance - is that the same as putting off the day you need to face up to reality
Extract
"The topic for this year's thematic review is: "Problem loan identification, forbearance and provisioning practices in the dairy sector," the Reserve Bank says.
"Our objective is to better understand how banks are capturing and measuring dairy sector credit risk and how this translates into provisioning and forbearance practices. The review is limited to the industry's five largest dairy lenders [ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Rabobank and Westpac] and will require the banks to respond to a comprehensive questionnaire and provide supporting data."