Yes it moves faster, doesn't it....also note BAL is past $20 mark, who would've thought after their dire state of affairs from yester years and they're still waiting for their CFDA approval to come through for their product.
Printable View
ATM presentation to Goldman Sachs in New York Investors conference...... perhaps another reason for today's SP boost?
Here it is
Word's getting out!!
Couple of golden nuggets that got my attention are launch of Pregnancy Nutrition Formula in 2H 18 and this bit..."Board continues to consider appropriate use of the Company's available capital including a review of opportunities to invest directly in blending and canning capability"
They can't be much more direct than that about their interest in invest in upcoming Synlait's plant in Pokeno.
Might see surge past $15 pretty soon, watch the space folks...
As I’ve said a couple times they are doing well wooing US investors ....obviously have a nan on the ground who knows tricks of the trade over there
Been in California last three weeks. I visited a total of seven different Whole Foods, Safeway and Target stores during that time and didn't see a single A2 product in any of them. Tiny random sample but I was a little surprised. Is acceptance not as strong as they say? Or does it just suggest that there is still lots of upside?
That's interesting. Certainly very early days in the USA. They've got a big marketing spend planned this half so hopefully that brings some more exposure, but the US and UK certainly have had slower uptake than China and Australia where the product is selling like hotcakes.
They will need to manage demands with production. No point entering a market and disappointing consumers.
Very good article in the Herald this morning on the company, someone who's not a dinosaur like me may be kind enough to attach it here.
i wouldn't be too bothered about this. The 1/2 year showed a very small exposure at the moment to US and UK (was it revenue of just $16m?) compared to their other markets. That's a drop in the ocean in the US. So it tends to highlight potential to me, enhanced by an increasing marketing effort. The very fact that they did an investor preso in New York yesterday is another indication of potential...
Agreed.
I took another very deep breath and tried to cast a vision for where this stock will be in 5 years time.
Every time I do this I end up topping up some more despite being dead scared I'm paying too much based on (current known fundamentals), I refer to this as an occupational hazard as bean counters are trained to think about historical, known and reasonably foreseeable financial information and vision casting five years ahead does not come naturally, well not for this silly old dog anyway...
Every time I do this I end up being very pleased down the track I did. Despite paying just over $13 this time for a top-up I am pretty sure I will be very pleased in due course that I had the courage to invest further. The basis behind this investment is I am thinking about FY19's earnings and PE when they will have a full year access to the doubling of supply from Synlait's drying and canning facilities which they commissioned in Nov 2017. I think the FY19 PE is in the mid - late 20's range and with ongoing strong growth prospects this stock even at the current price still represents an outstanding opportunity to build wealth over the long term.
Yes Jamie did a good job, no doubt encouraged by the A2 person charged with raising the profile of A2 in the investment world
That person doing a great job
No matter how fantastic A2 is the more exposure it gets the more ‘fantasticer’ it becomes
That US presentation was a huge coup
Hope there is no ulterior motive in trying to seduce somebody to take them over.
Really hope it isn't taken over before it gets into its stride properly.
The legendary KW thinks this could be another Danone in 5-10 years time.
http://www.4-traders.com/DANONE-4634...de&mots=Danone
For those that don't know Danone is nearly 67 Euro's a share or about $115 Kiwi a share. This tired hound might be tempted to retire early if that happened :)
I would say Winston will not let that happen:DKiwi will not let that happen:D
I like this quote:
"They are selling a real product, to real customers, for real dollars," Lister says.
Just not in California... yet
I’ve been following the US Facebook page for a few years and they are definitely getting more likes on their posts but a lot of the people on Facebook posts don’t get it.
I'm still buying at this price of $13 as I'm getting already scared about my paper profits on it. I have to somehow even it up or returned it to the Market :) Let's all enjoy the ride guys.
Looking forward to when Mad Money's Jim Cramer on CNBC gives A2 a plug
That'll be a good day
Yeap that will be a good day but the best day will be if ATM gets included in the MSCI index, next announcement date 14 May. Won't it be a real shame if all those index tracker funds worth Trillions of dollars have to buy a stake in ATM... Be a really "disappointing" day that one :D
https://blog.craigsip.com/nz-reporti...winners-losers
Craigs reckon they're on track to do nearly $300m this year..wouldn't surprise me if they did. (That would be 41 cps and put them directly in line with BAL consensus earnings for 2018). BAL last traded at just over $A20.50 today...a sign of where ATM might be at later this year ?...you folks be the judge but I for one wouldn't be surprised. Remember you read it here first ! The hound currently close to leading the ST competition is picking $20 by year end or even before !!
SUM other company impressed them too.
Disc: Own both ATM and SUM with heavily overweight positions, topped up with SUM more of each today.
I think the SP is about fair at the moment. They need to start building sales momentum in US and UK for it to be worth more. I've picked up some more recently, happy to hold for the long term.
They might get to $25 if we're both holding a lucky year of the dog gold coin mate...get it quick before all the special lucky dog ones sell out :)
http://www.equity.co.nz/files/PsiMet%20Gold%20File.pdf Pamp 1 oz 999.9 lunar series dog...how could you go wrong :)
$25 impossible some might say ? Well they more than quadrupled from $2.99 on 31 March 2017 this financial year so its not beyond the bounds of possibility at all that they could more than double by Christmas.
LOL I hear ya mate...shall try and curb my enthusiasm a bit as we're in for the long haul and quite apart from that this hound wants to get his snout into more so probably best if the shares don't hit $20 in the next wee while :)
Thanks for the link https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/102...n-christchurch
Up UP and away again today !!
up UP and away again today nearly $14 bucks !!
I topped up even more at the open today at $13.40, now makes up 20% of my portfolio...well it did at $13.40, now more, which is really going out on a limb for a fairly conservative investor.
Reminds me of a line in Billions which went along the line of "If you're sitting on a monster you better ride it hard".
Reading this thread just keeps reminding me of the sad state of the NZX market, where investors resort to diversifying into a single name over the rest of the garbage on the exchange.
Look harder...there's SUM very good companies on the NZX trading on compelling fundamental's...this is not the only compelling investment story by any means but certainly the best in my view :t_up:
Started at 6.5% of my portfolio (with a target 20% weight on "Dairy"), now at 22%.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c...land-dropshtml
Rumors of MSCI inclusion.
I can't see any reason why this won't happen as companies like RYM which is but one example which has a significantly smaller market cap are part of the MSCI index.
Index rebalance / adjustment announcement date 14 May 2018, effective date Friday 1 June 2018. Expecting some interesting bidding in the closing 15 minute match process on 1 June :t_up: :t_up:
ATM to me is just a line on a chart .....and a beautiful line at that
I know it’s into milk and it makes heaps of money
I glanced through an article on stuff yesterday and it mentioned things like ‘peak milk’ and ‘peak dairy factories’ ........should I be worried
ATM share price doesn’t look like it’s going to stop peaking for a while
He'd be struggling to find enough fresh A2 milk to cover his ankles mate. My local supermarket which is BIG or organics and other healthy stuff sometimes has it in stock. Had one 2 liter bottle left today that I pounced on. Mixes very well indeed with Canterbury Cream liqueur I can tell ya from first hand experience.
Mix 200 mls A2 milk with 200 mls Canterbury Crème and some ice cubes. Repeat a couple of times for a very pleasant evening indeed. "Purrfect" way to celebrate a good day on the market :t_up:
I just go to the biggest liquor shop within a few km's of where I live in Auckland mate but for some strange reason yesterday their stock was looking sadly depleted :)
I usually pay $15.99 but I did a net search for ya and you can get it for $13.99, actually $26.99 for 2 = $13.50 each. Hmmm... I guess you have to order by the case lot to make delivery per bottle reasonable, that's a bit sad isn't it :D
http://www.topshelfliquor.co.nz/esto...x#.WqeC5kxuKzk
More from Keith Woodford....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...at-happens-now
Market already looking ahead to FY19 and possibly estimating earnings as high as 50 cps which would put them on a PE of 28 which considering the incredible growth and IP then what you suggest about the likely price track is more than likely quite right. Could double by this time next year.
So this year and next year is just noise ...the only ‘fundamental’ thing you need to know is A2 is the next Danone and one day in a few years time will be worth heaps
That sounds good ....and nice and easy ....so I’ll just keep watching the line for on the chart go up.
Aussie Morgan Brokers report released yesterday targets $A14.40 SP (i.e. $NZ 15.40)
Attachment 9556
More media coverage...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...d-american-vet
Few snippets from above article...
"People think de-horning is absolutely brutal. Go for polled animals.
"New Zealand listen to me, if in 10 years you can sell milk to the world that came from polled animals that were A2/A2 you would wipe out the competition."
Wow, take at look at the BAL share price on the ASX, waiting patiently for the next A2 run. PS-BAL has outperformed A2 over the last year.
If you want to have a bit of fun while you wait, bring up a chart for the last 12 months of ATM, click on super charts and compare how closely ATM's SP correlates to BAL's SP over the last 12 months.
How closely will really surprise you, its really really closely correlated.
The shorten the chart period up to 3 months and you'll see than notwithstanding the Fonterra about face on A2 and the wonderful implications that gives for long term supply and growth for ATM the BAL SP has materially outperformed in the last 3 months.
Expecting a market update sometime late April, (as they did last year), and the next leg up as a result of that.
May 14 should see index inclusion in the MSCI world index with the addition and rebalance effective on 1 June.
Later in June 2018 just like last year I expect another market update. Plenty to look forward too over the next few months :t_up:
Been reading about platypus milk in the herald, as a possible source of new antibiotics..... and I was thinking about the A2 Platinum brand .... and nah, don’t think we should go there ...... nahhhh!!
210,000 at $13.525 crossed after market closed.
Edit. But opened next day at $13.75. Now lets see what ripple SML announcement causes.
Anyone else notice that nice little snippet in the SML half year results that said all consents for the Pokeno plant have been received....or words to that effect.
Underwrites their ability to supply A2 infant formula going forward into 2019 and beyond. Good for SML AND ATM shareholders, a classic win-win
Beagle have this funny thing about ducks. When they all start to line up beautifully its a sure sign that happy times will be continuing :t_up:
Interesting article behind the paywall on NBR today wherein head of Equities at Nikko Fund managers Stuart Williams opines on FBU and ATM
Summary. FBU needs asset sales and / or equity raise to get through their mess.
Shares are seen as expensive at 16.5 times forward earnings because earnings are probably wrong.
At the other end of the attractiveness scale they reckon, (and they've been shareholders since 2012) that ATM is cheap on 38 times FY18 earnings given their proven growth rate and clear pathway to substantial further growth over the next 3-5 years.
Good to know what the institutions are thinking as there's serious money behind their opinions.
Latest from Prof Woodford...nice read, bit long though.
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...ks-alternative
looks like a2 trade wars are in fashion
Great top up opportunity before the next run up. Let's do this.
Sharp drop before lunch triggered my sell and took a third of my holding off the table...
I guess seeing as there is no introduction thread I might as well introduce myself here. I am an at home investor with a modest portfolio that I have been growing for the last 10 years. I currently hold ATM (50%), SUM (23%), FPH (14%), THL (10%), BLT (2%), BSR.ASX (1%). I generally invest with a long-term view of 10+ years although I have had a shift in focus over the last 3 months and am about to take most, if not all, of it off the table in the next 12 months to build a house and keep my mortgage affordable.
Outside of investing I spend my spare time hunting, spearfishing and doing what my wife wants.
Cheers,
Adam
Welcome to the forum ... and hey - we have even our very own introduction forum, which is here: https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumd...to-ShareTrader ;
Not sure though I understand the "stop loss" for ATM - I guess the SP is still well above the EMA 30 ... feels a bit tight for a long term investor and a stock which sometimes comes even close to the EMA 100. :); But hey - it is your money and if you need it for better things ...
Otherwise - ATM is notorious for rapid up and down swings ... I am sure the shorters have again a field day in the ASX. Setting too tight stops for ATM makes just the brokers and the shorters happy. Never mind about the brokers, but we don't want to see happy shorters - do we?
Discl: holding ATM (L), and this is one of the shares I didn't set stops on ...
I guess the thought process on the stop for ATM was that I have been in since 53c and added another bundle at $1310 after the recent jump off the back of the announcements around Fonterra and Synlait. Once it had consolidated (in my head anyway) north of $1350, I set a stop at my buy price to give me some piece of mind on what felt more like a punt on collective enthusiasm rather than a well-considered technical analysis. Net result is I am down by the cost of brokerage on the trade and looking to put that money somewhere slightly less volatile.
No need to explain - we all make our own decisions :) and hey, if you started at 53 cents, than your overall return is truly colossal! As well - just noticed your overall holding in ATM (50%) - probably anyway a good idea to somewhat diversify and as well pretty sure couta is glad you sold some (to him) ;); All good - sounds like a win-win!
Any A2 among the infected?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12015937
LOL that's really worked its way into the vocab now hasn't it. I did a really good impersonation of a possum in the headlights with this one today, looked at it when it was down at $13.09, pontificated over it, mulled it over, paralysis by analysis. Unlike the Beagle to issue a meow instead of a woof one way or the other but this one is fairly volatile and I feel we need some more colour, (Winner says this is the hot new term to show you really know what you're talking about) on 2H sales before pushing above $14.
as at 2015, 6.49m dairy cows in NZ, of which 1,253,993 were in Canterbury.
Less than .0035% of total, 1.8% localised in Canterbury.
Also, cull cow kill per annum is far more than 22k
I think we'll cope without them.
As far as I know does Synlait get most (or all) of its A2 milk from mid and North Canterbury. The names of the A2 suppliers are not public knowledge, but we do know as well, that there is only one by the recent MPI proposals impacted herd in this area (van Leuwen Farm).So far I have found no information linking them to A2. So - before we all get too excited - I think it is fair to say that there is no known impact on the A2 supply.
Correct as well - this is (just) an animal health issue which effects basically all milk producers outside of NZ (and they can live with it), so, even if mycoplasma bovis decides to stay on our welcome shores, it would not be the end of the world.
RELAX!