famous work winner... famous work...3.39 it is then... one day if we lucky...
prob someone's ave price held since 2000...
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famous work winner... famous work...3.39 it is then... one day if we lucky...
prob someone's ave price held since 2000...
What's changed since I left on Thursday ? Answer, nothing. We always knew the Govt's determination to pander to those overseas by bringing in hundreds of infected cases would lead to a leak at the border. It was always an inevitability. I think you're dreaming of hoping to get these at the prices you've mentioned.
HLG not hammered as much as BRIS proxy AUS dollar.
Fellow rag trade outfit Premier reported H1 sales and earnings growth v pcp
If HLG can do the same that will be good
Maybe the 'significant decline' HLG talked about was only a just in case thing and we will be happy as with improved earnings
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...df02a206a39ff4
SP on a slide this past week.... any thoughts on where it will bottom out?
about 5.80 is the next support level..
then 4.80
if you did not lighten up over JAN on NZ retail its probably a bit late now.
except EBO of course.
unless your AVG price for HLG goes back to 2000.
As per 2022 stock picking thread Beagle has sold out of HLG. Probably been pushing sp down as he offload his hoard of shares.
Beagle said HLG worth 10 bucks. That still holds true but has to go to 4 bucks first :p
Nice 20,000 buy at 6.25, is that you Beagle?
smash up ... with the border coming down or being smashed apart this could get very interesting into the next 6 to 12 months.
some very low prices might turn up in the panic , steadying selling on the retail stocks starting.. and KIP being hammered and Brisc..ect
only EBO standing up.
From Oz ..ABS report for December
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 17.3% (-$531.2m) in December, in seasonally adjusted terms.
In actual terms down 8% on pcp and for HLG year (Aug/Dec) also down 8% on pcp
Probably can't expect miracles from Glassons this half year
Only EBO standing up? Come on Waltz.. you know the king of retail MHJ is the one true retailer standing up.. only down 5.3% ytd. MHJ the one retail stock that everyone forgets about. W69 says its time is coming thou :ohmy:
Retailer YTD
MHJ= -5.33%
TRA= -7.44%
EBO= -7.51%
KMD= -8.61%
HLG= -11.86%
BGP= -14.89%
WHS= -25.43%
Interesting that the more cheap/ FMCG you sell the more the market has punished you..
"retail MHJ is the one true retailer standing up"
well Mr B has alluded to the shopper coming under pressure and may have a wee bit late to realise that if the Next Variant coughs over into air waves even faster.
The big sick might be like a rolling black out in country's.
That might kick the retail shopper to the side lines as they suddenly hunker down in the HUT and forget to shop!!!
For a while anyway and all retail stocks except EBO take a hit.
Pairs of underpants keep selling and socks mitten and jackets but your loved one engagement finger gets let ring less for a QTR.....
Sell MHJ now and rebuy in 6 months if the market updates recover.
well the boosted rocket after burners are about to be lit and will it save retail is the question.
It’s not quite as impressive when you realize they are talking about quarter on quarter increase with that +43% figure, which is primarily due to the previous quarter being such a trough.
A bit of an odd release - the charts dont look very good, but keeping in mind it was in the middle of Omicron outbreak then it does look pretty good. They hide the year on year data a bit, but still some low percentage growth there for December.
Attachment 13492
Attachment 13493
WOW - December qtr sales up 43% truly impressive --- in seasonally adjusted terms
Actual sales for quarter were up 7% on pcp - the September quarter sales were down 17% on pcp
Pertinent to Glassons AU is that Aug/Dec (HLG year starts August) sales up 0.1% on pcp
With Glassons gain share at a fast rate of knots and with their superior online offering Glassons should have had a pretty solid 5 months and half year could be close to +10% up
Taken footwear out of the numbers so just clothing
what on earth does this share think its doing. Obviously AUS is breaking new shopping records.
If sales are good this goes to $7
If sales are bad this goes to $4
Suppose we’ll get an update before they announce half year late March
Wonder how much that ‘significant’ shortfall they mentioned will be?
Briscoes has less sales and profits in Aug/Jan period than last which doesn’t bode well for HLG in NZ ….c’mon Glassons AU, pull the group out of the crap (again)
Kathmandu said H1 sales were flat v pcp and said they were likely report a loss for H1 (EBITDA of $9m must be a loss at NPAT?)
Good thing about that announcement from a HLG perspective was that although the NZX was almost down 2% the KMD share price went up.
Market starting to look through covid stuff .... good sign for HLG share price when they have an update
kmd up on markets weakness . and more weakness coming.
I have a really bad feeling about this update coming. Could send the sp into a spiral . Hope I am wrong
These are tricky waters to navigate for sure. On a look through Covid basis this is great value but sentiment in the near term is something I acknowledge is challenging.
Hope its a Thursday or Friday morning announcement. Market saying it will be.
Surley Mr B if they dont cut the DIV well its got a nice price right here.
Its no secret I really like this company and the way management go about managing it and growing it in a very carefully measured and risk averse way. Frankly its a brilliant textbook example of diligence and careful prudence. Looking through the near term challenges of Omricon, those hunting for a company that will pay them reliable high dividends need look no further.
This morning I took a deep breath and decided I cannot stay in ~ 70% cash forever, that's got to be a temporary position that slowly comes down so I asked myself which is the most reliable and most prudently managed company I know of ? Which company has the track record to deserve my trust the most ? Which company has been around since Adam was a boy and which company I can sleep most comfortably with despite the current environment and perhaps the most important question of all, which company can I trust are always acting in the best interests of shareholders without any unnecessary ESG and other politically correct nonsense ?
There is no question in my mind that HLG is that company. Sure they face some challenges at present but my mother, (bless her), often used to say there's always sunshine after rain and one day this Covid storm will abate and before that day arrives HLG shares will no longer be "on sale"
warm fuzzies.... well if the result is a shocker a BUY on the DIP.... :t_up:
a BUY anyway...
Beagle is after this feed
Through thick and thin decent dividends from HLG
AVERAGED OVER 30 CENTS LAST 15 YEARS ..... BUTLOOK WHATS HAPPENED SINCE DI FIXED GLASSONS UP
What a beautiful image, picture says a thousand words, thanks for sharing. Even in the depths of the GFC they paid a decent dividend compared to the share price of the time. Really simple to understand their financial statements too. I like simple uncomplicated companies with no debt who pay huge dividends. HLG a classic dividend hounds stock which suits me "purrfectly"
When the FA is full of Notes to this table and that table its ups the usual suspects.
why OCA got the boot..
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4522898
She wasn't there for long when she did come back, just 18 months.
Gassons Australia sales
FY17 $50.0m (Di left almost immediately after year end)
FY18 $78.4m
FY19 $89.5m
FY20 $96.7m
FY21 $133.7m
I guess you could argue that Di laid the ground work but what seems inarguable is that James Glasson looks like he's been doing a stellar job ever since !
I have more respect for people who stick around and get the job done properly.
I get the impression that Popplewell et al pleaded (like got on their knees and said please please) with Di to get her to come back and sort Glassons Australia out. Popplewell did say getting her was a 'coup'
Glassons AU back then had sales of about $40m and was losing money - fix it Di and your job is done was the brief
Two years on Glassons AU turnover had doubled and prfoit was 10% of sales ..... amazing job Di ... well done Di
Yep James has kept the momentum going .....2019 and 2020 were OKish years but not stellar .... and he got lucky in 2021.
2022 will be Jame's big test
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG
Wow profits have almost halved, yet the share price is within 15% of its record high ($7.85)... most fascinating
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387403
I think its a highly credible result given the extreme length of lockdowns in Australia and N.Z.
FY22 was always going to be challenging and sales down only 6% given the length of lockdowns provides strong encouragement for the future.
At the mid point of the forecast $11.6m net profit this half is forecast to be down 41% on 1H FY21. This compares to WHS where their profit is forecast to be down 64%. eps at 11.6 cps is still 19.45 cps for the half year.
I think HLG will demonstrate the confidence it has in its strong balance sheet position, liquidity and its future outlook by declaring a dividend of 20 cps for the half year.
Looking through the current Covid challenges I am comfortable that HLG are in a great position to thrive when this storm passes.
Others may see it differently and that's their prerogative but I am happy to hold and enjoy the high dividends and strong growth to come in due course.
When i read market announcements I take a lot out of the 'sentiment' conveyed by the writer.
This announcement... I don't get the sense that the writer is joyous or confident in the future. I.e. very grey and downbeat. Glad I sold out sometime ago because this bad boy is stuck in the mud
Still forecasting a profit while most of your stores were closed for a significant amount of the period is rather impressive.
Wow - 5,432 lost trading days they said
Should have done the Michael Hill and Kathmandu trick and report comparable says
I reckon they would have said ..... COMPARABLE SAME STORE SALES UP 21%
That's pretty impressive
Oh dear, pretty sad looking numbers there. Might see 5 handle to sp in the near term, with lower NZD and inflationary pressures (wages and costs) mounting.
Wonder where the 2H will end up, although 1H is the traditionally heavier trading period.
No idea but here are some interesting full year outcomes based on 2HFY22 year on year % change on the pcp. looking a bit expensive.
2HFY22 FY22 NPAT EPS PE @ 6.69 0% 25.12 0.42 15.9 -20% 22.416 0.38 17.8 -40% 19.712 0.33 20.2 -50% 18.36 0.31 21.7
"sales down only 6%"
fantastic result...
if its a 5 HANDLE BUY BIG...
As MR B has said even in the GFC they paid out...and thats what matters most.
Though the DIV might be cut a bit..
Both Australia & NZ relaxing travel restrictions next two weeks what do people do ..........new clothes for the PARTIES
Disc:hold
4 dollars? oh yes please...back up the trackers...
Steady on. First half net profit at mid point is $11.6m with mega shutdowns. Second half without shutdowns should be higher.
Might do $13-14m = ~ $25m for the year in what is the toughest trading conditions since the GFC = 42 cps = PE of 15.7
On a DCF basis I am on record as saying that this knocks the valuation by about 30 cps, maybe a little more depending upon how Covid impacts FY23.
Sales only down 6% YTD considering all the lockdowns gives a big clue that they can springboard back very strongly after Covid.
Online sales are now a remarkable 33% of total sales.
Calls for $4 are absolutely ridiculous in my opinion and completely ignores their excellent track record of years of strong growth before Covid headwinds.
I'm sure there would be a lot of delighted buyers at $4 bucks rawz, including me!
Who knows but hard to see the down 40% occurring. Rather tough to forecast 2h with scant information available. Impact of operational leverage, GP margins (would be good to see if they have arrested the slide), reopening trade, sales by location, etc
Down 20% seems to have a nice ring to it but I don't have a clue
"Calls for $4 are absolutely ridiculous in my opinion."
Damn....
well a small pull back in price then?
FBU a buy instead? 7 dollars by day end or more?
The retail stuff report today saying smaller RET and HOS (R&H) is taking a pounding and the sniffy thing isnt even spread far and wide yet.
id say the next report could be a also down on last year..
Only way that would happen is if a new variant popped up and led to lockdowns again. As stated in update, all stores are now open with current government covid restrictions in place in both countries. I also think Fiordland Moose should have included +10% & +20% 2HFY22 lines in his table.
Regardless of how H1 shapes up - market is forward looking for the most part and all eyes will be on a forward twelve months earnings result, which post the H1 period will mean 12 months of full store opening (including the new Australian store additions), and although wage inflation is currently a thing, international shipping costs will decrease (they are already off their highs) and store rental/lease costs haven’t shown the same large increases yet. Also countering wage inflation is the fact that HLG itself passes on most, if not all, of the inflation cost to consumers via higher product pricing.
IIRC history has shown that value stocks trading at relatively low multiples are the best inflation protection, as companies pass on everything to their customers, and inflation generally raises share prices along with a company’s revenue/profits as the pricing of everything increases. Eg hypothetical Period where inflation increased 10%, then all else being equal a business that increased its revenue & Net Profit by 10% will also see its share price rise by 10%.
I think HLG will remain above $6 for good reason: 2022 onwards is looking very good, and assuming the highest risk event does not happen (a new highly deadly variant resistant to current vaccines forces countries back into lockdown) then forward earnings multiple will quickly be back close to 10x current price.
(disclosure: currently no position held)
Well then your no hold position should change at 6.01...:t_up:
can see good chance of 6 handle here.
The market always undervalues this Ticker ID.
NZX->Portfolios->StockPlatform->StockTickerId = HLG
All retail stocks reverting to the mean (aside from standout MHJ).
Holding retail was a 2021 thing. The majority of my portfolio was retail all year last year. Now I only hold a sliver of MHJ.
I personally cant see retail going well for the next couple of years with inflation and raising rates. HLG and WHS most affected imo.
H2 will see a million or so extra come through from screwing the landlords for every buck they can..... go that screwing team .... Warren was most impressed with your efforts at the ASM ....raved about you
Curious why you think inflation and raising rates would impact HLG & HLG the most? Why will BRG, KMD, MHJ etc fare better on those particular? I would of thought the companies with no debt would in fact do better in a rising interest rate environment vs the companies holding debt.
I am looking at it from the consumer viewpoint. Not the company position. Discretionary spending is coming in for a wake up call as the 2.19% mortgage rates come off for FHBs and those that upgraded their house from 3 bedroom to 4 and thus maxed out debt again. Rents will go up as well. Initial indication is that these two (HLG and WHS) are hurting the most, maybe its a fmcg thing. But like I say, all of retail done its dash for a couple of years in my mind and there is other sectors to be in that will fare better in this environment, my picks being financials and construction.
Lease adjustments when stores cannot open is fair and reasonable. Landlords cannot expect to be immune from Covid.
FY22 was always going to be a challenge, as I have predicted many times already. People will be desperate to go out peacocking again when Omricon is over and all those young handsome and pretty young things will want lots of new clothes to go and strut their stuff. Most of these young things don't have a mortgage so have immunity to higher mortgage rates.
I 'calculate' that sales for the last six weeks of the half were up 2% on pcp
Based on a sales seasonality model I have for HLG (a few years history) ,,,, a few assumptions ....and what they say sales have been tracking at full year announcement and at the ASM
Any growth is better than going backwards .... and gives an idea how H2 might have started
2% up on last years record sales (which were up 22% on the year before) shows very credible current trading performance now that all stores are open and trading and gives a good clue to how sales might track in the second half.
There's always sunshine after rain and once the Covid storm has passed I am very confident the years of strong growth Glassons enjoyed before Covid will continue after it has passed. I am forecasting 2 x 20 cent dividends this year which is far from shabby considering its such an incredibly challenging year. Like I said yesterday, HLG is a classic dividend hounds stock and I am a dividend hound so this is tailor made for me.
Do you still actually believe that mate? It was a good theory before but now seems like a throw away line.
I was expecting the peacocking theory to play out over Q2, over summer..
Lockdowns Q1, therefore pent up demand + summer peacocking = outstanding Q2. Doesnt seem like it happened. Otherwise surely the update would have touched on how great Q2 was and miles ahead of PCP, all the other retailers do that.. Q2 summer/ xmas trading possibly was very average which is a worry
EDIT. I see master winner has calc 2% Q2 pcp growth. Definitely no peacocking there. And no real catch up from Q1 lockdowns.
(BTW- Maybe im being too hard on HLG)
Don’t see how Omicron couldn’t be temporally impacting discretionary retail in the short term. Just an anecdote, but my better half hasn’t had one of her traditional weekend retail therapy sessions for several weeks now that Omicron is in the wild. At least the credit card is getting a rest.
Probably because she is like my better half and bought everything she needed for the house during the great retail boom of 2020/2021. I dont want to sound like a broken record but cant see retail going well for a few years. Maybe just 'satisfactory' like Beagle says. 2% growth is below inflation thou..... thinking about it i would down grade it to 'disappointing'. needs to be a 10 p/e max. Maybe 8?
I see Glassons has 700,000 Instagram followers ….13,000 more than just before Christmas
This could be a good metric to sssess how peacocking is going
That's the future. Instagram and online shopping.
Hlg got that sorted.
Relatively more resistant to rising mortgages, but not immune (a minority may own homes but ultimately more discretionary income sucked up by rising interest rates will eventually have a knock on effect on overall retail spending). But HLG's customers are highly impacted by rents, which are rising quickly. They are likewise susceptible to negative real wage growth which isn't good for discretionary spending. Particularly with input costs going ballistic and pushing up HLG's retail prices.
Cotton prices by way of example are going through the roof - check this out:
I don't see HLG having any particular pricing power. Sure they will raise prices some but will most likely have to absorb heaps. Lower dollar, higher input prices, high freight cost makes for a more expensive product. I hope they aren't still airlifting product that was a rare mistep they got into that position - entirely forgivable given global supply chain issues - but other retails like Briscoes were able to front foot their inventory positions. There are a lot of costs going into HLG and other retailers business and a few headwinds on the demand side tooQuote:
Bit of a worry that NPAT/Sales going to be less than 7% (last year H1 was 11% and H2 8%)
Seems to suggest that a expense b relativity high expense base is hurting ..... unless gross margin % is gone to hell
Need to get Tina from Turners modelling some of their new Autumn wear. She's s rock star !
https://www.glassons.com/
5432 trading days in the six months lost is an unusual way to describe things.
Doesn't mean much until you start to break it down. 5432 / 365 = 14.88.
Same impact as one store being closed for nearly 15 years and all the effects concentrated into one six month period...or
10 stores being closed for 18 months...or
30 stores being closed for the full six month trading period and yet sales were only down 6% on last years record (which itself was up 22% on the year before).
Headwinds with freight and a lower currency also a material factor, quite obviously.
I think in the context of that the result is pretty good.
Sales down 6% but profit down 41%
What does that mean?
Increased expenses around Govt mandates, Covid, etc etc ?
Higher costs of getting product from NZ Warehouse to shops ?
More Lower profit lines selling ?
Higher COGS and shipping costs from offshore ?
Longer lead times for imports to landed here ?
They still haven't done too badly - if KMD's recent results are any indication :)
Beagle - its 5432 trading days lost out of 20,700 days (26 weeks and 115 stores) they could have been open
That's 26% of the days they could have been trading lost / closed
Quite a few eh