Unfortunately I was too brave, but I only put 6k down. It's going to be a bad day though, that much is sure :(
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Appeals will be lodged for sure.
Im so glad, really impressed with the COMCOM of late - more competition is better for everyone
70 - 80c pre t/o period
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/comcom...corp-th-205698
Looks well reasoned to me.
Fairfax could very well reappear as a buyer?
Comcom logic is a joke - remember how they kneecapped Chorus with their "preliminary decision" which halved their share price only to reverse it.
Declining Tower beggars belief when they are 5% market share and of questionable independent financial strength. I'd understand if IAG was trying it on but Vero are c. 25%. Hasn't Youi turned up in NZ as a new recent competitor - hard to make an argument there are barriers to entry etc.
Does this mean they have to relook at Z buying Caltex or the supermarket duopoly. Tower shareholders have been sacrificed at the alter of Mr Berry's ego.
Engineered competition does nothing for the market as a whole, VERO and Tower are already co-operating together in a way that no one could assume to be competitive... the merger was not to drive competition down but to drive efficiency through economies of scale, consolidating expenses between the two entities and move into a full range of coverage.
Sent a query to Vero to insure a turbo car of mine for the weekends, somehow my query found its way to Tower as I then received a quote from them over the phone claiming Vero does not offer that sort of cover...
For eff sake, let a free market be free, you can penalise those who do wrong once they do wrong...
Comcom is full of anointed intellectuals who have far too much power... seeing as an appeal would cost millions of dollars and take up to a year, where is the real oversight coming from?
I don't even hold TWR and I am livid
Four down to three players OK, three down to two a step too far says CC man
http://www.interest.co.nz/insurance/...s-chairman-why
I don't agree with this. The SP was 80 cents when they made their $1.17 offer and there were no other offers. What difference does it make that Vero was declined. The $1.17 offer was 23 cents below Vero's offer. I doubt Tower shareholders would accept much less. The company still has a strong underlying business that maybe in a few years will be done with the earthquake claims and be well ahead of where it is today.
I note Phillips Capital have suggested fair value at 80c, and highlighted no moat, no dividend , a commoditised product, the risk of a capital raising, Chch legacy liabilities and in general agreed with the report i wrote and distributed last week.
However they did mention the full version of the Com Coms decision has still not been released. So any interested parties are still waiting for the detail before they form their view and their response.
You guys might be interested in this
http://www.interest.co.nz/insurance/...-consider-what
You have chosen, wisely, I think :)
Vero to Appeal Commerce Commission Decision
https://www.nzx.com/companies/TWR/announcements/305937
And Tower joining in with the appeal. I'd see this and think the share price would move, but not on recent events.
TOWER LODGES CROSS APPEAL
Tower Limited (NZX/ASX: TWR) advises that it has now lodged its own cross appeal against the Commerce Commission’s decision to decline Vero’s application to acquire 100% of Tower.
As previously advised, Tower’s Board fully supports Vero with its appeal. As this matter is now before the courts, no further comment will be made.
ENDS
Vero out completely now and is not appealing. Very strange. What was the point of them appealing in the first place? Seems they have wanted to screw Tower over a bit in this whole exercise.
Getting into buy territory - could be a nice value play. Surely their TradeMe tie up is producing results. Will try and look to see how its going.
I wouldn't imagine that they would sell the ones they own. Wouldn't make sense.
So whats their play with the shares they own, will they just leave them languishing in their books or wait for the next potential buyer and cut a deal?
The commerce commission is still investigating Vero's purchase of 19.9% separate from the takeover offer.
D day for Tower shareholders tomorrow
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11943510
Not sure if it has already been mentioned, but street talk (on AFR) has revealed:
- raise $NZ70 million via renounceable rights issue.
- offering the shares at 42¢ apiece and plans to use the proceeds to strengthen its regulatory capital base (step discount!)
- Goldman Sachs is overseeing the deal and the transaction will be wholly sub underwritten by a group of institutional investors
Agreed - it did seem a really odd time to put a trading halt on. Perhaps they got wind of a leak and put the hold on before trading on this hit the share price?
With 168.662m shares on issue, a 1:1 rights issue at NZ42c would raise $70.8m which aligns with the AFR commentary except for a rounding difference.
Reading the stuff Tower put out this morning nothing can go wrong in the future ..it is all go and F18 will be brilliant.
transformation 18 times and platform 12 times in announcements ....some replication of material though. I just love reading stuff like this
336m shares on issue , huge dilution for existing holders and they might get a 1c dividend in the future if there lucky. looks expensive at current prices
Might be worth a punt but advise caution as to why the steep discount? If this is a guaranteed no brainer why do they need to discount so much.
Will be looking at the forecasts.
Only diluted if you don’t front up with the cash ...but doubling your holding might not be what everybody wants to do
Using say $20m profit (their underlying number) that’s eps of 6 cents on higher number of shares so they might eventually end up at 60/70 cents again next year....yes?
Would you buy now though but interesting to see what eventuates.
Bad luck current shareholders ...might be good for the vultures.
I think this will turn the corner, anyone remember the massively discounted Nuplex rights issue about a decade ago? That was a great money maker.
The $70m raise repays BNZ and also covers the chance they lose the Peak Re arbitration which leaves an underlying npat of $18-20m a year and Canterbury, finally, well provisioned in the accounts.
I won't bet the house on it as insurance can be a tricky business but I will take up my rights in full and with a post-rights average of around 70c I hope by FY19 they are paying c. 5cps in dividends = 7/8% yield. Thats if they aren't taken over once the balance sheet is cleaner in FY18.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is the share price is 80c+ by Christmas next year (barring no major earthquake).
DYOR as usual.
Tower at least are more transformational than PEB
I'd be looking for 1-2cps in FY18 and c. 5c FY19 as long as things go realtively smoothly and appreciate that is a fairly big assumption.
Ok ran some quick numbers (please correct as necessary):
QBE has:
$8B in GWP
$690M wages (cant find their wage bill but estimate 75% is wages of $920M total)
9%
TWR:
$306M GWP
$54M Wages (wages should be $35M or so...)
18%
There is some serious fat that needs trimming. Also some overpaid execs that need to be removed.
As mentioned previoulsy a very attractive T/O target with all the underperformance and fat..
For some reason I cannot download the document from nzx, is this only open to existing holders, if so, what's the recorded date?
I think they have been discounting premiums to build market share. They may have some pricing flexibility next year but they have too much expense currently.
Either raise prices or cut the excess. I would like to see some movement on this to be confident. That $10M+ fat goes straight to bottom line.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310249
at the back i think it says 22 november as record date if you wish to buy now ,better have someone as confirm dont want to put you wrong
Thanks, just will not download for me..... net admin may have blocked.
Was wondering why SP had not dropped more, but this explains it somewhat.
If they value the company at $0.43 cents why are people paying $0.70 cents today? This share has got to dive IMO. You should be able to pick up at $0.40 in the near future, I hope I'm wrong but there current management is left wanting.
the ex price was 55c on todays price i think so thats why people buying at 72c as you can buy the new shares at 42c
amd as i was thinking they have potential to win up to 80m of the top of my head in litigation so you gotta think is that worth a punt 20 odd cents worth of share capital return?
The rights issue price is just a price that underwriters of the issue are pretty confident the price will stay above so they make money taking up rights that aren't purchased. It's not a valuation. A 70c price just means the rights have a value of about 14c. At 70c you are buying a future share price of 56c and a right to buy another share at 42c that had a value of 14c. The maths is simple this time as it's a 1:1 rights offer.
Might give this a punt if I can get it for under 70c... forsyth reckon 4c dividend next year and that its worth at least 10% higher than today's closing price...
Then again they also reckon PEB is worth 85 cents
I think there's good opportunity here, but to be truly rewarded you're going to have to hold it for quite a while whilst they get the never ending Christchurch claims out of the way
Whens this going to court and earliest tower/aig know if they're getting a payday. And if EQC coughs up, wont the money just go to the poor shmucks that have waited all this time for their claim to be resolved?
last day today i believe before they go ex
Not quite...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310431
"Record Date for determining Entitlements: 7.00 pm, 22 November 2017"
Interesting to see after HBL not really down much despite no longer being entitled to participate in their rights issue... if Tower holds anything remotely close to 70 cents after the entitlement period, this would be most impressive!
Agree but holding above 56c would be a good effort.
HBL's rights issue was a 1:15 and price close to the market price [within 15%] meaning the theoretical price drop on going ex was under 2 cents. 2c gets lost in HBL's daily movements.
TWR's is a 1:1 issue and is about 45% below market the markets pre-announcement price. The large number of rights and big discount to market price combine to create a large theoretical price drop on going ex. From a 70c price today, the new ex rights price should fall back to about 56c. The rights would then be trading at 14c as they still require another 42c payment.
Some poor soul paid 70 cents for the shares today lol
Best time to invest in financial services shares is when they are getting their guts kicked out of them, and during the inevitable capital raising to restore their financial balance.
Heartland/Marac is a prime example and if you go back far enough, all the Australasian trading banks were like that during the 1980s and 1990s.
66c!
So pre-ex price is 90c!
What a turnaround in sentiment!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310361
As I understand it, you do.
Ex date is today (21 Nov) so if you held the shares as at 5.00 pm yesterday (20 Nov), you are entitled and the rights have vested in you.
Record date is 22 Nov.
If you sell the shares today or tomorrow, transfer of your shares will only take place on T+2 = 23 Nov or 24 Nov, so you will still be recorded as the holder of the shares as at record date 22 Nov.
Hope that makes sense.
Will/can Vero get in on this action?
Always one to dive back into the crocodile pit I bought a bucket of shares after the 1:1 was announced and having got the offer docs in the email today I have paid my $0.42s for another bucket load (though you have till 13-Dec to do it).
So currently sitting on a choice paper profit which hopefully will get bigger & bigger with time.
Though it may not.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I've tripled up in the rights issue - it was well signalled but I'm impressed at how strong Tower are trading during rights trading....clearly a lot of demand and value seen in the stock here...could be 70c+ by Xmas
the closing price in aus was worth 71c nz
twr in nz is still trading at discount to aus
Hi,
Anyone know if you can apply for more share under the offer, or is it just 1 for 1?
Thanks...
Thanks Jeremy.
Last day to accept rights issue.
Insiders have been buying - great sign!
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...652/271433.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...796/271618.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...355/271039.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...355/271040.pdf
IF by any chance there was another take over in the works, would these recent insider purchases be considered naughty?
gotta say this was a great investment buying after they announced the rights issue, 42c rights vrs 68c on market 62% return in less than a month , could be more maybe in time
Unfortunately, most TWR share holders are still sitting on huge losses, especially those who hung onto their shares in anticipation of the takeover succeeding at $1.40.
Still, this capital raising is probably the most well signalled rights issue ever so should not be a surprise that it will be a successful one.
Personally I bought at $1.27 and at current SP have just gone into positive territory.
I have learnt a lot more about Tower recently and they are well set for the future. They have a strong strategy, good engagement and with the capital raise look well set for the future. As a result not tempted to sell down. Could see this recovering to $1 in time once they start paying dividends and the earthquakes are out of the way.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...986/271844.pdf
Chairman seems to agree with you - he loaded up at 68c last.
Good result, lots of support from existing holders
COMPLETION OF RIGHTS OFFER
Tower Limited (NZX/ASX: TWR) is pleased to
announce the closure of its
underwritten 1 for 1 pro rata renounceable rights offer announced on 14
November 2017, with strong shareholder
support.
Approximately 148.4 million new shares were taken up by
shareholders,
representing approximately 88.0% of the new shares available
under the rights
offer. This represents gross proceeds of approximately $62.3
million.
The underwriter of the offer, Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited,
has agreed
to take up approximately 20.3 million shares which were not taken
up under
the offer.
New shares taken up under the rights offer are
expected to be allotted and
begin trading on 20 December 2017.
Amazing that 12% of shareholders did not take up the offer! They could have sold the rights and there certainly was plenty of demand for them through the rights trading period.
In any case, it is an excellent outcome and no doubt Goldmans will be pretty happy to accumulate a nice holding like 20.3m shares to work towards the next takeover offer for Tower.
Watch for Commerce Commission case against Vero for buying the 20% without prior clearance. If Vero is required to sell, that will no doubt be sold to a friendly party, triggering a takeover.
All very positive. The change in sentiment is very strong at the moment.
And for the 12% that didn't take up rights they have pretty much thrown away money. Which is very silly. They could of just sold their shares and bought the new shares with that money. They would of made over 20%!
There were 28,000 small holdings (between 1 to 5,000 shares) registered as Tower shareholders last year - suspect that's the reason why many simply decided to ignore the rights issue - they have been burnt enough?
Agree hell of a pity though as they can recapture some value by taking up their rights.