>>>>>>>>
Action played out as expected with a move into the 5550 area and a spike beyond around NFP.
Left an order in to buy @ 1.5530 which got triggered overnight on
a down spike......+33
Await next week with interest
Good weekend all
Printable View
>>>>>>>>
Action played out as expected with a move into the 5550 area and a spike beyond around NFP.
Left an order in to buy @ 1.5530 which got triggered overnight on
a down spike......+33
Await next week with interest
Good weekend all
>>>>>>>>>
My target of 5620 was reached but unfortunately not
before my stop got hit overnight at 5565
Result +35
arco
pretty volatile for a NZ open
i thought id overcooked it with a short from 150 but looks like momentum is still there
must be a counter rally coming but i still fancy lower
Morning All
Out of everything at the moment.......some big falls could create a few bounces.
Dollar Gain Signals Pain as Rally Prompts Exit From Bull Trade
By Ye Xie and Anchalee Worrachate
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Just because the dollar posted its biggest gain against the Euro in almost eight years doesn't mean the U.S. currency won't continue to be plagued by the nation's slowing economy, widening budget and trade deficits and negative inflation-adjusted interest rates.
The 4 percent surge against the single European currency this month was enough to prompt Bank of America Corp. to tell its customers to exit trades betting on more gains. Morgan Stanley still forecasts the greenback will approach a record low by October as the U.S. housing slump and credit-market losses keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year.
Barclays Plc in London and New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. said trading patterns suggest the dollar's 5.1 percent gain in the past three weeks measured by an index of six major trading partners can't be sustained.
That's mostly because there's no indication the U.S. will return to the late 1990s annualized gross domestic product growth of 4.23 percent with inflation running at no more than 3.3 percent. Since September, 2000, the dollar has declined more than 44 percent as inflation accelerated to an annual 5 percent today, growth slowed to 1.9 percent and U.S. interest rates provide no cushion for holding U.S. assets.
``I would not chase the dollar's strength versus the euro as the pair has moved beyond interest-rate support,'' said Sophia Drossos, a strategist in New York at Morgan Stanley, who also recommended closing out bets on the dollar versus the currencies of Malaysia and Singapore. ``The dollar is not out of the woods. It will take the market a while to come around to our point of view.''
Unsustainable Recovery
The dollar strengthened to $1.5005 to the euro last week from $1.5564 on Aug. 1, the biggest weekly increase on a percentage basis since January 2005. It surged 2.08 percent on Aug. 8, touching $1.4998, the most since Sept. 6, 2000, and the second largest rally since the euro was introduced in 1999.
Those gains sent the dollar above the $1.51 per euro yearend mean target of 39 analysts in a survey by Bloomberg. By the end of 2009, the dollar will likely strengthen to $1.40 per euro, based on the estimates. It gained 6.4 percent since hitting a record low of $1.6038 on July 15.
In addition to the gains against the euro, the dollar also appreciated 2.3 percent versus the yen to 110.18, the most in eight weeks. The euro lost 1.29 percent against the Japanese currency to 165.38, the biggest drop in 13 weeks.
U.S. economic data suggest that a sustained recovery isn't imminent, said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America in New York. Interest-rate swaps indicate the currency should trade at about $1.54 per euro, said Sinche, who still forecasts that the dollar will strengthen to $1.45 per euro by the second half of next year.
Foreclosures, Deficits
The number of U.S. home foreclosure filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data. Government reports this week may show retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, the first decrease since February, and the U.S. trade deficit widened in June to $62 billion from $59.8 billion.
The U.S. budget deficit, which totaled $163 billion for 2007, is forecast by the administration of President George W. Bush to widen to a record $482 billion for 2009.
Morgan Stanley predicts the dollar will weaken to $1.60 by October, because the faltering U.S. economy means the Fed is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon, Drossos said. That means investors will continue to suffer inflation-adjusted returns that are negative based on the current annual consumer price index of 5 percent and Treasury securities yielding between 1.695 percent for three-month bills and 4.53 percent for 30-year bonds.
`Particularly Weak'
Rather then a vote of confidence in the outlook for the U.S. economy, the euro's tumble on Aug. 8 was triggered by traders paring bets the European Central Bank will lift borrowing costs after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter. Trichet spoke after the central bank left the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent.
Gross domestic product growth in the euro region is expected to slow to 1.7 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2009, from 2.68 percent in 2007, according the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. U.S. GDP will slow to 1.5 percent before rebounding to 1.8 percent next year, another survey showed.
``The outlook is looking certainly brighter for the dollar,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy in New York at Wells Fargo & Co. ``The most significant factor is that there are now much clearer signs that U.S. economic weakness has spread to global economic weakness.''
`Overshoot Territory'
Wells Fargo forecasts the dollar strengthening to 1.48 per euro by the end of next year.
David Woo, head of currency strategy in London at Barclays, disagrees. ``The euro-dollar market is in an overshoot territory,'' he said. Barclays, the world's third largest currency trader, according to an annual survey by Euromoney magazine, expects the dollar to weaken to $1.57 per euro by year-end.
Dollar bears point to the Fed's decision on Aug. 5 to leave its target rate for overnight loans between banks at 2 percent for a second straight policy meeting. Policy makers said ``downside risks'' to growth remain, while inflation is a ``significant concern.''
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 40 percent chance the Fed will raise its target rate at least a quarter- percentage point by year-end and a 90 percent probability of higher borrowing costs by the end of March.
`Balance of Risks'
``We still see the balance of risks to the upside for euro- dollar given considerable headwinds facing the dollar and unrealistic pricing for Fed hikes,'' strategists led by Ray Farris at Credit Suisse Group in London wrote in a research note at the end of last week. The dollar may decline to $1.61 per euro by the end of next month and to $1.64 by year-end, they said, the most bearish forecast in the Bloomberg survey.
Traders who look at charts of price patterns say technical indicators suggest the dollar's rally may have been exaggerated.
Losses accelerated Aug. 8 when the euro dropped below $1.53 and broke the 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2006. Currencies typically revert toward their mean price after breaking through averages unless new ranges are established.
Trading envelopes, which measure how far from the mean a price has strayed, show the euro's decline is double the typical changes versus the dollar in the past 20 days, suggesting that the dollar is either establishing a new level or will trade closer to the average price.
`Bit Too Fast'
The 14-day relative strength index fell to 22.31, the lowest since the euro's debut. A relative strength index level below 30 suggests a currency's decline is extreme and a reversal may be imminent.
``We are looking for the euro-dollar to move down over the year, but feel that the current move is a bit too fast,'' said Emma Lawson, a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch, which still expects the dollar to rise to $1.48 per euro by January. ``The dollar has started from a position of being undervalued while a lot of these currencies are overvalued.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at Yxie6@bloomberg.net; Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
Euro looks pretty oversold IMO and old resistance in the current area could provide some support for a reversal.
Watching for wave confirmation.
To me it looks like support has become resistance and prices have bounced off? Short at 1.4941 sl 1.4985
>>>>>>>>
After 4 weeks of tracking south I guess there's always an element of 'reversal denial' and nobody is too keen to step in front of a freight train. ;)
tried a long there arco but stopped out for a few
im thinking one final move lower , daily fx got this down as a 4 before a final move down to
complete.
Today seems to be an inside day indicating indecision, has support finally kicked in?
It's running mate eur/jpy may be turning north around 162.50,hourly and 15min charts,trying anyway.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Good to see you back on the job :D
Yes, Euro's trying to make a turn, and as DB mentioned it may be
printing a wave 4.
1 hour and 4 hour made a higher low, so lets
see if that opens the way for more northward movement
Rgds - arco
Tonight Eurozone CPI around 9.00 pm
.........and tomorrow we have US Core CPI @ 12.30 pm which is an inflation indicator and usually makes Euro jump...........but which way :rolleyes:
News traders can have a go.........either way
Northbound turn not confirmed yet....awaiting the 12.30 news with interest.
From Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rallied to an almost six-month high against the euro on Thursday amid growing concern over euro zone economic weakness and accelerating inflation in the United States.
Traders sold the euro after reports showed contraction in the euro zone's economy in the second quarter. The euro zone single currency accelerated its losses and fell below $1.48 after it broke through key technical levels, analysts said.
Government data showed U.S. consumer prices rose at twice the rate expected in July. Analysts said higher prices in the short term may help boost the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although they warned that over time, inflation would hurt the economy.
"What you have is a clear change in scenario, and a very rapid one," said Joseph Trevisani, market analyst at FX Solutions in Saddle River, New Jersey, adding:
"One leads to perhaps a higher chance of a rate cut (in the euro zone), and the other leads to perhaps a higher chance of an American rate hike at some point," he added. "The scenario is just starting to diverge both sides to the benefit of the dollar."
In late afternoon trading in New York, the euro was 0.8 percent lower at $1.4807, after falling as low as $1.4779, the lowest since late February, according to Reuters data. The European currency is now more than 10 cents below a record high of $1.6038 struck in July.
The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose for a 10th consecutive session to hit a six-month high of 76.823. It was last 0.5 percent higher at 76.652.
Full article
http://uk.reuters.com/article/market...&&pageNumber=2
Annoying. Stop got cleaned out before the move downwards. Ugh!
Long with a supa tight stop on this one to,probably toast if it doesn't go this hour.
Cheers
miner
9.pm tonight
Might give a jolt to the market. (For scalpers and direction seekers).
Possible BF on H1.
GTA - arco
They don't get much more perfect than that. Could be a little bitQuote:
Post #716. Possible BF on H1.
more steam left yet.
Nice result +150 so far.
arco
Hello Bilo
Possibly in the medium/longer term, but with such a large fall there always comes a retracement which often tests old supports for change of polarity. So we need to pay attention to the signals that appear and act accordingly.
I'm expecting some resistance around 4815-30, so we'll see what transpires after that
rgds - arco
Hello Bilo
I was pretty close on the resistance area mentioned - quote "I'm expecting some resistance around 4815-30"
The action went to a high of 1.4832 and then dropped 91 pipsbefore moving higher.
I would expect to see a retrace at this point.
rgds - arco
one to look out for market open
long eur usd entry at stop bid 148 target 149 79 and 151 50
stop loss 147 35 or a bit more generous 146 65
top h1 and then h10
Hi DB
Morning Star is a powerful pattern - normally. But today the trigger happy probably got burnt. You had a very logical entry, so trust you didn't get spiked in.
I've had most of the day off, so just returned to see how the land lies.
No positions so far this week.....so see what can be made of the patterns.
arco
hi arco , it looked pretty good but wasn't to be .
starting to think new low may be on the cards or at least a test of previous low
so looking for a short
what you up to ?
looks like 4th wave top may be in at 14910
now got a clear 5 waves down , so will enter on retracement to 14870 area for
a shot at 146 30 low
Hi DB
Haven't found anything I like so far......still trying to get a feel for
the new week......
rgds - arco
elliot wave are saying exactly the same thing DA. do they have a subscription with you :p
ha ha that'll be the day
hey peat i tried to get into the ewi site but have given up
any chance of a post on eur usd
.
There could be some support coming in from the consolidation area (triangle), so is it feasible there could be a little bounce from here.
Waiting in the wings until its more clear
.
DA
[Consolidation then lower]
Key Level: 1.4631 & 1.4910
Continue to look for a consolidative pause to last a little longer above 1.4697 (and possibly see a move back toward 1.4778). However, with an impulsive (five wave) downward movement now arguably showing from a potential fourth wave high at 1.4910, a retest of the recent 1.4631 low should be expected once the present consolidation is over. Only an impulsive return back up through 1.4829 and then on toward 1.4910 would suggest that a broader more complex fourth wave correction was still in progress. J Hunter
.
Interesting to see the question mark after (iv)........a little uncertainty there from the 'experts'
1 hr chart has a potential continuation pattern.....maybe the plot on the chart could be the way ahead.
Still waiting.................
.
i think even they accept that you cant always plot the count until the next wave declares itself. they offer alternative counts occasionally. I've grabbed 40 from 1.4720 after that spike down to 1.47 (the .78 retracement point) got knocked back.
I've saved the EW weekly and monthly views for all the pairs to disk so will post those if people would like. can do the intradays as below if you want too.
Could be a few wild swings until the action finds a direction.
Ifo says German export climate hits 15-yr low-report
BERLIN, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The outlook for German exports has deteriorated to its worst level in over 15 years, according to an index compiled by the Munich-based Ifo economic research institute for German magazine WirtschaftsWoche.
'The negative picture is heavily influenced by the poor mood among consumers and firms among Germany's European trading partners,' Ifo said, according to the magazine on Sunday.
Ifo's export climate indicator for Germany, the world's biggest exporter of goods, fell by 0.08 points to minus 1.24 points, the lowest reading since May 1993, the report said.
Behind the bleak outlook was the fact that France, Italy and Spain were teetering on the brink of recession, it added. Some two thirds of exports from Europe's largest economy go to other countries within the 27-nation European Union.
After growing 1.3 percent in the first quarter, German gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.5 percent in the April-June period, and a number of leading economists have said the economy could contract again in the third quarter.
Last week, Ifo said expectations for the global economy were now at their lowest level in nearly 18 years.
(Writing by Dave Graham; editing by Elaine Hardcastle) Keywords: GERMANY EXPORT/
tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com
.
Nice trade DB.......couldn't quite match that figure.
http://www.clipartof.com/images/thumbnail/1233.gif
thanks arco , you got to give yourself a pat on the back as i have learnt alot from you
Update For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:45:42 GMT
EURUSD
Last Price: 1.4888
Support: 1.4745, 1.4675, 1.4631, 1.4311
Resistance: 1.4895, 1.4950, 1.5080, 1.5170
The rally underway since late-2005 is nearly equal (near 1.6200) to the prior advance. Equality measurements are common and we're watching carefully for evidence of a reversal. While EUR$ has fallen it's not yet enough to signal a trend change.
NB This is Aug 8
Update For: August 21
Posted On: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:08:17 GMT
EURUSD
Last Price: 1.4637
Support: 1.4615, 1.4570, 1.4440, 1.4311
Resistance: 1.4715, 1.4810, 1.4910, 1.4950
The decline from 1.6040 is stretched. At least a correction is due and could reach the 1.5170 to 1.5500 area. But we're showing a count that allows for more than a correction. The recent dive reached support in the area of the prior fourth wave and if it completed a flat correction EUR$ could attempt to push to a new all-time high.
Hi Peat
Thanks for posting the graphs. Interesting that the monthly looks like a potential BF in the making.
Based on your findings do you feel their service is of value?
rgds - arco
NB. 1hr BF playing out nicely at the moment.
So far... its hard to say with too much certainty, but I'll say this for them - they're putting out a lot of very timely charts and commentary on their intradays, so they are working hard. I think they have trouble being certain about direction a lot of the time.Thats kind of understandable. They often have an alternative count which means they're hedging themselves. Its an analysis, not always a tip sheet as such.
I need more time to analyse their work. I might comment again later.But I certainly wont be buying it at that price you quoted Arco. It could be valuable to someone though if not necessarily me.
on intraday today EW are generally short USD , except against the Yen.
gartley AND three indians!
very tempting
As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, Trichet has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinise his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues.
Very trendless actions over the last couple of days, am now waiting for a pullback to recent support at 1.39 before initiating a longer term position.
Is that a big butterfly I see shaping up on the 15min weekly chart?
.
Gimme a chart Bilo, and I give you my opinion.
arco
somedays you get it right and still lose , well obviously you didnt get it perfectly right, but what I mean is that picking direction correctly and making a profit dont always go hand in hand
here I got overall direction wrong but still made 130 pips overnight
Morning Peat
........you managed to ride the 'news' wave.
..........nice one.
2:30am USD High Impact Expected
Building Permits
0.71M 0.77M 0.81M
2:30am USD High Impact Expected
Core CPI m/m
-0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
2:30am USD Medium Impact Expected
CPI m/m
-1.0% -0.8% 0.0%
I know its dangerous to put a bottom on falling knifes, but are we getting set for a EUR/USD bear rally?
1. No new lows, clear support just below at the 1.24 range.
2. Triple bullish divergence on the dailies with a momentum oscillator.
3. Volatility decreasing.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture...5&pictureid=71
read this AMR
while you dont precisely get told what they think (coz its the free release, and obviously they want you to subscribe) but the numbering does clue you in and the triangle (being corrective) etc....
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...-Patience.aspx
...what a breakout! 700 pips in four days!
what do people make of this?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...The-Storm.aspx
Evening Peat
Potential Gartley on daily - print currently providing a Shooting Star (this of course still has time to change b4 the candle completes).
I also know the Glen Nealy has advised his clients to close their long positions. So perhaps a possibility of some southern movement.
rgds - arco
Ok what a crazy few days with massive breakouts up then down. Still have won more than I lost but only just. have being stopped out way too many times even though the origional call was correct. Think I will sit on the sidelines for a while as I am ahead for now.
Still is this just a correction of the US weakness or will the US start to move back towards 1.30? I feel it will head back towards 1.50 but wont be betting on it. Time to watch.
gartley on the 15 min from X at 1.4315 (not the highest high but the first retracement) with D at 1.4218 (the highest red dotted line) has given 158 so far.
this chart is abit crowded sorry... the red fib is the XA , the light blue is the AB (had another sell placed at the 161 ext on that ) and the yellow is the BC extension, which pretty much matched the 78% level of the red
the question is what to do now that the IPO of the gartley has been reached (coz immediatly after posting this it bounced up a lot off that gartley target.
Hi Peat
Perhaps thats a Bear Flag now (broken and tested).
In your chart XA could be an AB, and that would give a CD target of under 1.3800, or from the previous fall starting 18 Dec the target could be slightly lower
Not trading this one myself just at the moment.
well that all worked out well closing both positions with good profit - a good start to 2009
Happy New Year everybody
another bear flag forming now ?
15 min chart showing a definite trendline in the retracement. looking for a break of that.
yup that worked
closed one +100 and one still to run
.
You're on a roll Peat.....I still in holiday mode.:D
PA is getting towards my idea in post #762 (1.3800)
Should have taken a position, but not trading until next week
getting sick of gartleys yet ?
look at what Euro$ did last night
Aud/Jpy delivered :)
Just closed the 2nd of my two short Euro$ positions at +488 - its starting to look a bit like one of Miners U's might be forming for a bear rally now.
Gotta thank Max Mckegg for this trade - he's a NZ'er who provides forex subscriptions.
http://www.trl.co.nz/trlfx/pages/trlfx.htm
euro looked like it was forming an ascending triangle during this correction but started to push the lower side of it and kind of did a double top at 1.3085 , so I've taken another short , at 1.3008 original stop was at 131.05 but now brought down to 1.3060. TP 1.2808
headin off to zzzz's now with 52 pips at stake 200 on the make
_____
closed at break even after offerning up to 100 overnite... but I was asleep and it broken out on the up of another little triangle just now 8:55 am so yeh out for zilch
Long time since we've had a potential Bat in the wings.
.
also a gartley tho, with X on Oct 27th and B on Jan 5th.
I tried a long from just above 1.28 but again (like GBP/CHF) I was too soon and a bit weak, couldnt hack the lows that came..
Problem with trading this on the daily would be D = 1.2891 and stop would have to be below 1.2330 - over 500 pips.
even trading the bat one would have to allow 250 pip stop.
does look like its time for a rally tho....
Yes a flying start for the Bat - around 300 pips move north. :)
.
I still think its better to (overall) be playing the short side tho...
here another 100 overnite.
Hi Peat
Yes looks like there may be some further movement
on the down side to the early 3000's. Who knows,
we might even get another leg up after that.
Long term trend is getting harder and harder to spot. I still believe we are in a downtrend so a triple screen entry short will be on the cards soon for me. There are easier things to trade however.
Entered short at 3233
clinical Arco
well done
I screwed up the last couple of days trading with spikes taking me out too often. always seems to happen on the bigger trades too :mad:
Butterfly hunters!
Is this a giant butterfly forming on the July 08 - October 09 EUR/USD daily?
If we take this view of a bullish butterfly shown in the chart of Novellus below then (at the moment) we are missing b-c and going straight from C-D but so far it is has met the fibs of a 61.8% retracement of the leg from mid July 1.61 ish down to 1.23 and has also done a 78% retracement of the leg from 1.23 - 1.48 and hence so far is in line perfectly with only the last week not exactly playing the tune to the textbook.
in my chart I've drawn in dotted orange how the butterfly might look. ab projects 1.618% at 1.16 and BC projects 1.27% at 1.17 so around there would be the PTZ and the buy zone I suppose. Someone check my maths.
Also note ananda77 that technically speaking the theory only suggests the final point D as a valid buy signal and until then the pattern hasnt played out although other patterns have eg arco's bat. I'm not sure if a butterfly can survive the onslaught of a bat
Hi Peat
If we get a turn now, the BAT is still a possibility
when the X is taken from the lower point circa 28/10.
(Here's the old chart, and if we take the lower point the
886 is still pretty close to the current price)
rgds - arco
I've updated my original post with different projections and comments on posts that came afterwards.
But no I do not have prescience :cool:
noticed a three drives pattern down since 21:00 NZT last night and then a bullish gartley so laid into it with a very large trade for me (and a smaller one for the bigger pattern) and it came through pretty quick.
the most certain part of the gartley is the bit from 78% retracment back to the 38%
i reckon there is some serious overhead resisitance on euro at 1.39
? shaping upfor a short
Yep, I reckon every man and his dog is gonna be trading that reistance level, if it breaks, we'll be seeing 1.45 in no time. Gentlemen, place your stops :)
Hi DB,
I was long Euro from lower levels but i got shaken out at 1.3575.i am dubious as to just how high the Euro will go,all the data out of there is dismay as was the news Friday nite,having said that there is no meaningful reversal yet and price is always king
...there are possibly only two ways how to finance the US deficit:
1- The federal deficits could be financed by further flight from equities and other investments. The next financial shock could arise from commercial real estate. Stores are closing in shopping centers, and vacancies are rising in office buildings. Without rents, the mortgages can’t be paid.
Another scare and another big drop in the stock market will set off a second "FLIGHT TO QUALITY" and finance the budget deficits (buying up treasuries >to be on the safe side, the safest way would be to buy the shortest term treasuries)
2- The Federal Reserve will buy most of the new bonds and create demand deposits for the Treasury. In effect, the money supply will grow by the amount of Fed purchases of new Treasury debt. Printing money to finance the government’s budget normally leads to high inflation and high interest rates.
The initial impact of the announcement of the Fed’s plan to purchase existing debt was to drive up the bond prices. However, if the reserves poured into the banking system by the bond purchases result in new money growth, and if the Fed purchases the new debt issues to finance the governments’ budget deficits, the outlook for bond prices and the dollar becomes poor.
source: http://vdare.com/roberts/090319_bailout.htm
...looking at the long term trajectory of equity markets as well as the fact that the Fed's intention remains to keep interest rates at their lowest possible level for a prolonged period of time, it looks most likely that 1- should be the preferred strategy to tackle the deficit problem...
Kind Regards
...after 3 cent surge, USD looks like on its way to challenge 92.63 level...
...sweet, as long as key level remains *83.7 on downside
-demand for USD remains high globally as a safe haven bet as well as being the denominated currency of global issued debt
-NO INFLATIONARY PRESSURES due to huge gap in global economic output (DEFLATION)
-due to global QE to close global output gap, erecting protective tariff barriers, as well as competitive currency devaluations avoided
-expect NZD to depreciate (more rate cuts as well as QE) as further appreciation of exchange rate would be deflationary to the struggling NZ economy
Trading Strategy: long USD/NZD
Kind Regards
perfect H+Sh on the hourly
And it's opp mate usd/chf doing the same.
Cheers
Miner
no joy in that H+S for me tho, now above the shoulder so I guess thats a fail.
...most likely, next bullish move for USD to 92 index-level, likely coinciding with bearish correction tendencies in the US Blue Chips...
Kind Regards
.
.
Into cloud resistance on 1h and 4h it looks like the grey box could be the maximum test area of the thick Kumo which has turned bearish going forward. If we see a turnaround at this point it could be followed by a circa 300 pip fall onto supportive Kumo on daily TF. However, if the action penetrates the Kumo, it could be a different story
.
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/30ad015127.gif
For Peat
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/images/ew18.gif
.